The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus

Putin spent two decades demanding a multipolar world. Now he's getting one — and it might destroy Russia.In this episode of The Next Best, I speak with Seva Gunitsky, professor at the University of Toronto and author of Aftershocks, about the irony at the heart of today's geopolitical shift: the global order Putin wanted may be far worse for Russia than the one he helped dismantle.We discuss why the invasion of Ukraine may be the biggest strategic blunder of the century, how personalist dictatorships distort decision-making, and why a world dominated by leaders like Putin, Trump, and Xi Jinping could become more unstable — and more dangerous.We also examine whether Putin could survive peace, how dictators actually lose power, and why nuclear risk may be rising again.

Is Congress irrelevant in U.S. foreign policy? Is bipartisanship a myth? And what happens when the biggest threat to a NATO ally might be the United States itself?This week on The Next Best, I'm joined by Elizabeth Saunders, professor at Columbia University and author of The Insider's Game: How Elites Make War and Peace. We unpack how American foreign policy really works — not in theory, but in practice.From the slow erosion of congressional war powers after World War II to the sweeping authorities passed after the September 11 attacks. From Harry S. Truman and the myth of Cold War unity to Donald Trump threatening Greenland.This conversation cuts through nostalgia and looks at the raw politics of power.We discuss:• Why Congress keeps giving away authority — and why it can't claw it back• The structural political advantage of "hawks" over "doves"• Whether Trump has fixed foreign policy beliefs (spoiler: he does)• Why Trump and Greenland may have been a turning point for NATO• The internal camps shaping Trump's decisions — and what a President JD Vance might mean for Europe• Whether congressional Republicans would ever break with him• Will Europe's rearmament outlast Trump?One key argument: Trump isn't a "peace president." He's comfortable with force — drones, bombing, special operations — but reluctant to launch large-scale wars with U.S. casualties. That distinction matters.If you care about how war powers actually function, why sanctions are easy to impose but nearly impossible to remove, and whether Europe's rearmament will outlast Trump — this episode is for you.The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus offers deep dives into geopolitics and international relations. We provide serious political commentary on foreign policy challenges, modern warfare, and global security.🔔 Subscribe for more analysis: https://www.youtube.com/@TheNextBestPod📺 Watch our most popular video: https://youtu.be/OhI17ztUvzY

Apple doesn’t just manufacture in China. It helped build the system that now holds it hostage.In this episode of The Next Best, I speak with Financial Times journalist Patrick McGee, author of Apple in China, about one of the most important – and least understood – geopolitical entanglements of our time.• How did Apple become dependent on the Chinese Communist Party?• Why can’t it simply move production elsewhere?• And what does this tell us about authoritarian leverage in a globalized world?We explore the rise of China’s manufacturing dominance, the scale of Apple’s exposure, and why decoupling may be far harder than many policymakers assume.The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus offers deep dives into geopolitics and international relations. We provide serious political commentary on foreign policy challenges, modern warfare, and global security.

How powerful is propaganda—really? In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus speaks with Gavin Wilde, a former White House official and U.S. intelligence analyst, about why we consistently overestimate the impact of fake news, disinformation, and "information warfare." From World War I and Edward Bernays to Russian hybrid warfare, social media bots, and AI-generated deepfakes, Wilde argues that propaganda is far less decisive than we like to believe.We discuss:• Why democracies struggle with persuasion and media literacy• How Russia exploits existing social fractures rather than creating them• Why calling out disinformation can sometimes backfire• Why "ignoring it" might be a more rational strategy than constant outrageThe conversation also explores AI, deepfakes, hybrid warfare, and the limits of deterrence in the information age—challenging many of today’s dominant assumptions.Timestamps:00:00 — Why ignoring propaganda might be the most rational response00:29 — Introduction: Gavin Wilde on propaganda, Russia, and hybrid warfare00:53 — What propaganda actually is (and how it differs from persuasion)01:04 — World War I, democracy, and the birth of modern propaganda03:40 — Edward Bernays, psychology, and “torches of freedom”05:10 — Propaganda as belonging, not mind control06:29 — Propaganda in democracies vs. autocracies06:50 — Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, and reinforcing existing beliefs09:18 — The internet, bots, deepfakes, and how the game supposedly changed09:57 — Computing, social science, and the myth of predictable persuasion12:20 — Why propaganda and advertising oversell their own effectiveness13:50 — Russia, hybrid warfare, and election interference14:17 — Do we know Russia interferes in Western elections?15:30 — Soviet history and the roots of Russian information warfare17:32 — Opportunism vs. grand Kremlin strategy18:58 — The risks of overestimating foreign interference19:28 — Why blaming propaganda undermines democratic agency21:35 — Exploiting existing divisions & the Doppelgänger operation23:10 — When exposing disinformation backfires24:40 — Policy takeaway: why “ignore it” may be the best option25:58 — Should democracies fight back with information warfare?26:11 — Why information warfare is fundamentally autocratic27:30 — Telling a better democratic story (not just better facts)29:24 — Kinetic hybrid warfare: sabotage, terrorism, and fear31:34 — Attribution, deterrence, and why resilience matters more34:10 — Artificial intelligence, deepfakes, and the “dog that didn’t bark”36:51 — What we still get wrong about human behavior and propaganda37:54 — Closing remarksThe Next Best with Marcel Dirsus offers deep dives into geopolitics and international relations. We provide serious political commentary on foreign policy challenges, modern warfare, and global security.

Can Europe defend itself without the United States? The uncomfortable reality is that Europe’s security architecture is completely dependent on Washington—and that foundation is cracking.In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus speaks with Max Bergmann (Director at CSIS and former US diplomat) about the depth of this military dependence. They break down exactly what would have to change if Washington steps back, covering the "fatal flaws" in European defense—from procurement failures and intelligence sharing to the growing risk of a prolonged war with Russia.Topics Discussed:• The Command Problem: Why Europe lacks a unified military structure.• The NATO Paradox: How the alliance entrenched US leadership in European defense.• Industrial Failure: Why increased spending isn't translating into stockpiles.• The "Euro Eyes" Problem: Europe’s reliance on US intelligence and logistics.• Future Scenarios: What happens if there is a rupture in US–EU relations?Chapters:00:00 Intro00:30 Europe, NATO, and US security dependence01:18 Post-WWII origins of Europe’s defence model05:03 Why European militaries declined after the Cold War07:02 The real source of Europe’s military dependency09:49 US troops in Europe and rapid reaction forces13:09 Can a pan-European force work?16:49 Who decides? The political control problem19:56 Why Europe stopped thinking strategically21:50 Defence procurement and industrial fragmentation27:03 Ammunition, stockpiles, and production capacity30:32 Ukraine and the war of attrition problem33:04 Intelligence, “Euro Eyes,” and hybrid warfare37:08 US–EU relations and the risk of rupture40:04 Are European leaders responding fast enough?43:20 Final thoughtsIf you’re interested in geopolitics, European security, and how power actually works, subscribe to The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus.

Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Tim Weiner joins Marcel Dirsus to discuss his book, The Mission: The CIA in the 21st Century. This episode is a deep dive into the CIA, the failures of the War on Terror, and the future of modern warfare. Weiner traces the agency’s evolution from the Cold War through 9/11, revealing how fear drove the CIA into torture, secret prisons, and paramilitary operations that reshaped America’s moral standing. He argues that while the agency has had tactical successes—like dismantling nuclear smuggling networks and stealing Vladimir Putin’s invasion plans for Ukraine—it faces a strategic crisis. The conversation warns of a catastrophic intelligence failure fueled by Donald Trump’s rejection of intelligence, ideological purges within the national security apparatus, and China’s surveillance-driven operations.Timestamps:00:00 – Vladimir Putin’s shadow war across Europe00:20 – Introduction: Tim Weiner & The Mission00:49 – The CIA after the Cold War and before 9/1101:01 – Ignored warnings about Al-Qaeda and Bin Laden02:59 – The Bush administration’s obsession with Saddam Hussein03:29 – Iraq, neoconservatives, and the democracy delusion04:20 – How 9/11 transformed the CIA04:49 – Fear, raw intelligence, and the road to war06:36 – Torture, black sites, and “enhanced interrogation”07:17 – How the CIA justified torture09:26 – Did torture actually work?09:41 – The A.Q. Khan nuclear smuggling operation11:26 – Pakistan, the ISI, and playing both sides12:47 – The CIA’s lost focus on Russia and China13:14 – Russia, political warfare, and the 2016 election15:17 – Stealing Putin’s Ukraine invasion plans17:39 – CIA support for Ukraine before and after the invasion18:02 – Why subscribing helps the podcast18:15 – How the CIA rebuilt Ukraine’s intelligence services20:18 – Trump, Putin, and spheres of influence21:11 – Authoritarianism and the logic of force22:20 – Trump vs. intelligence agencies23:05 – Ideological purges inside the CIA25:35 – China’s intelligence services and surveillance strategy27:45 – CIA successes—and failures—against China29:04 – What CIA officers are really like31:38 – Democracy, dictatorship, and a personal warning31:49 – Closing remarksAbout The Next Best:Deep dives into geopolitics, international relations, and history with political scientist Marcel Dirsus. If you found this conversation valuable, please subscribe and leave a comment.

The Baltic region is Europe's most dangerous geopolitical flashpoint. From the Suwałki Gap to the stationing of German combat troops in Lithuania, we explore the geopolitical stakes of a potential conflict between Russia and NATO.Political scientist Marcel Dirsus speaks with Oliver Moody, Berlin correspondent for The Times, to analyze the strategic vulnerability of Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia.00:00 Russia’s Hybrid War Against Europe00:31 Why the Baltic Region Is Europe’s Geopolitical Flashpoint01:00 Baltic: NATO, Russia, and Europe’s Future01:24 Baltic States History: From Empire to Independence03:07 How Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania Broke from the USSR04:40 Why the West Didn’t Support Baltic Independence in 199005:36 Why the Baltic States Chose NATO and the EU06:11 NATO Expansion and Western Fears of Provoking Russia07:22 Why Defending the Baltic States Is So Difficult09:39 What Europe Can Learn from the Baltic States10:03 Estonia’s Digital State and Economic Transformation12:14 Why Copy-Paste Policy Fails in Europe13:40 How Russia’s Ukraine War Changed Northern Europe15:47 Baltic Power and Influence Inside the European Union17:56 Poland, Power Politics, and Europe’s Strategic Limits19:57 Why Russia Didn’t Stop Finland and Sweden Joining NATO21:56 Is Europe Already in a Hybrid War with Russia?22:17 Russian Sabotage, Espionage, and Hybrid Attacks Explained23:26 Could Russia Invade Estonia? NATO’s Worst-Case Scenario23:47 Why Subscribing Helps the Podcast24:04 How a NATO–Russia War Could Begin26:05 NATO Troops in the Baltics: Tripwire or Real Deterrence?28:05 Finland’s Total Defense Model Explained29:53 Why Europe Is Unprepared for Civil Defense32:25 Germany’s Rearmament and Europe’s Historic Fears34:39 What US Politics Mean for Europe’s Security36:30 Could NATO Collapse Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?37:38 If America Leaves Europe: Unity or Fragmentation?39:32 Why the Baltic Region Shapes Europe’s Future41:08 Understanding Russia Through an Exiled Russian Writer42:51 OutroIn this episode:• The strategic importance of the Suwałki Gap• Why Germany is deploying a combat brigade to Lithuania• Hybrid Warfare & Grey Zone Tactics: How Russia destabilizes the region• The reality of the Russian threat to the Baltic states• NATO's defense strategy in Northeastern Europe• Historical context: The Soviet occupation and its legacy• What we can learn from Poland, Finland and EstoniaAbout the Guest: Oliver Moody is the Berlin correspondent for The Times, covering German and Northern European politics. His reporting often focuses on security policy and the shifting geopolitical landscape in Europe.Subscribe for more serious conversations on geopolitics & history.My guestBook: https://www.johnmurraypress.co.uk/titles/oliver-moody/baltic/9781399814270/Twitter: https://x.com/olivernmoodyMeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com

How the U.S. turned banks, the dollar, and tech supply chains into a weapon that isolates entire countries without firing a shot.Edward Fishman is the author of "Chokepoints" and a former member of the Secretary of State's Policy Planning Staff. We discuss how the US transformed the global financial system into a weapon, the history of economic statecraft from naval blockades to smart sanctions, and the invisible infrastructure of the US dollar. We also cover the origins of the Iran sanctions campaign, how secondary sanctions force allies to comply, and whether the overuse of these tools threatens the dollar's future dominance. Lastly, we discuss US attempts to wage economic warfare against China and what America may do if Beijing decides to invade Taiwan. 00:00 Intro: Threatening shipping companies01:23 From naval blockades to smart sanctions03:35 How globalization created "Chokepoints"06:20 The Invisible Infrastructure (How the Dollar actually works)10:04 Weaponized Interdependence13:26 The Iran Model: Stuart Levy & the Treasury's realization18:26 Why European banks obey US law (Secondary Sanctions)21:19 Deterrence vs. rollback: what sanctions achieved in Iran24:27 The bipartisan “sanctions work” lesson—and overreach risks24:43 The sanctions‑relief paradox after the JCPOA25:06 Why firms refused to re‑enter Iran despite relief25:11 Business risk calculus and U.S. policy volatility25:14 Polarization and foreign‑policy credibility28:39 Russia: why objectives changed after 2014 and 202229:15 2014—Crimea, Donbas, Minsk, and deterrence limits35:06 The “catastrophic success” concern35:26 2022 playbook: big banks, central bank, chips; crisis and calibration38:42 Did the 2022 economic crisis distract Russia’s leadership?39:05 China export controls: ZTE → Huawei → semiconductors41:52 Taiwan question: limits of economic deterrence42:14 Build resilience first: rare earths, batteries, chips44:05 Is globalization over?44:08 The mindset shift ending globalization’s foundation45:49 OutroGuest: Edward Fishman, Columbia UniversitySubscribe for more serious conversations on Geopolitics & History. My guestBook: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/726149/chokepoints-by-edward-fishman/Website: https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/edward-fishman/Twitter: https://x.com/edwardfishmanMeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.comI'll see you soon.

We're now multiple years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and an end to the fighting isn't in sight. There are now negotiations, but where could these negotiations lead? What happens if Russia wins? And why did Putin decide to invade in the first place? To answer these questions, I speak to Michael Kimmage. Michael is the director of the Kennan Institute in Washington, DC and a professor of history at the Catholic University of America. His latest book is called Collisions: The War in Ukraine and the Origins of the New Global Instability.My guestWebsite: https://www.kennaninstitute.org/kimmageTwitter: https://x.com/mkimmageMeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.comI'll see you soon.

My guest this week is Kori Schake. Kori has an incredibly impressive CV. She is currently the Director of Foreign and Defense Policy at the American Enterprise Institute, but she has also worked at the US Department of State, the Pentagon and the White House. She advised John McCain during his 2008 presidential campaign and she has taught at Stanford and West Point.Her latest book is called The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States. We talk about Trump, of course, but also George Washington, World War II, and the general difficulty of maintaining a powerful military that doesn't become a threat for democracy. I've admired Kori's work for many years, so I'm delighted that we had an opportunity to chat. My guestWebsite: https://www.aei.org/profile/kori-schake/BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/kschake.bsky.socialBook: https://www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?book_slug=the-state-and-the-soldier-a-history-of-civil-military-relations-in-the-united-states--9781509570539MeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.comI'll see you soon.I'll see you soon.

Earlier this year, I read a book called Death is Our Business and this week I spoke to the author John Lechner. John is an interesting man. He used to work in investment banking and then he decided to become a journalist. So he moved to Africa and started reporting on Russian mercenaries. John got kidnapped at some point, but along the way he learned quite a few languages. He speaks fluent Russian, advanced Turkish, and conversational Chechen, as well as Sango, which is the most important language in the Central African Republic. In this episode, we talk about the role of the Wagner Group in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Yevgeny Prigozhin's march on Moscow, and the growing role of private military companies in international politics.My guestWebsite: https://www.johnlechnerauthor.comBook: https://www.johnlechnerauthor.com/death-is-our-businessTwitter: https://x.com/JohnLechner1MeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.comI'll see you soon.

Hey, it's Marcel Dirsus and this is The Next Best. I spoke to Charles Hecker this week. Charles has spent 40 years traveling and working in the Soviet Union and Russia. He speaks fluent Russian and he just wrote a book called Zero Sum. At first glance, the book is about international business in Russia. And it is, but it is also a lens to look at political and economic developments more generally. We spoke about the chaos of the early 1990s. Western governments pushing their companies to invest in Russia and the impact that closer engagement with Moscow had on our own societies. I enjoyed the book. I enjoyed talking to Charles and I hope you enjoy our discussion. Let's go.My guestWebsite: https://www.charleshecker.comBook: https://www.charleshecker.com/purchase-linksTwitter: https://x.com/Charles_HeckerBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/charleshecker.bsky.socialMeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.comI'll see you soon.

My guest this week is Steve Coll. Steve is a senior editor at The Economist and he has written nine books. He has won the Pulitzer Prize not once, but twice. His most recent book is about Saddam Hussein, the CIA and America's invasion of Iraq. It is called The Achilles Trap. 1In this episode, we talk about Saddam Hussein's childhood, chemical weapons use against Iran, and a series of miscalculations that ultimately led to war. I had lot of fun talking to Steve, and the discussion is relevant beyond America and Iraq, because misunderstanding the opposite side can still lead to tragedy. Let's go.My guestBook: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/602066/the-achilles-trap-by-steve-coll/MeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.comI'll see you soon.

Hey, it's Marcel Dirsus and this is The Next Best.