Arlan Suderman: Commodity Outlook

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains why the next 36 hours could be critical for grain, energy, and fertilizer markets.In this April 6 update, Arlan covers:Why the Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest near-term market driverHow a ceasefire or de-escalation could remove some war premium from commodity marketsWhy further escalation could push energy and fertilizer prices even higherWhat to watch ahead of this week’s USDA WASDE reportWhy soybeans still have support while corn and wheat face pressureFor deeper energy, grain, and livestock market analysis from Arlan, subscribe to his Market Intelligence Plan here:https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?selling_plan=4455759972&variant=45955325001828&utm_medium=organicsocial&utm_campaign=stonexsocial_USaginsights_yt&utm_content=organic_USaginsight_v1_20250821Subscribe for more market insight from Arlan Suderman and StoneX.#ArlanSuderman #StoneX #GrainMarkets #EnergyMarkets #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Fertilizer #WASDE #OATT #OOTT

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the latest USDA quarterly grain stocks report and explains what is really driving the grain and oilseed markets right now.In this April 1 update, Arlan covers:How war headlines influenced grain and oilseed buyingWhat the March 1 USDA grain stocks data says about corn, soybeans, and wheatWhy corn stocks came in lower than expectedWhat the report could mean for soybean and wheat balance sheetsWhy large supplies are still pressuring basisHow fertilizer risk could shape the grain outlook going forwardIf you follow corn, soybeans, wheat, basis, USDA reports, and commodity market trends, this is a key update from the trading floor.Subscribe for more market insight from Arlan Suderman and StoneX.

Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down why the EPA’s final biofuels rule could be a major demand driver for feedstocks and ag markets.In this March 30 update, Arlan covers:Why the new EPA biofuels guidelines look bullish for soy oil and feedstock demandWhat the final renewable volume obligations mean for renewable dieselHow energy shortages and the Strait of Hormuz disruption are reshaping commodity flowsWhy fertilizer shortages and food security headlines are getting market attentionWhat this could mean for corn, soybeans, wheat, and grain/oilseed money flowIf you follow biofuels, grain markets, oilseeds, fertilizer, and global commodity risk, this is the market update to watch.Subscribe for more trading-floor updates from Arlan Suderman and StoneX.#ArlanSuderman #StoneX #Biofuels #SoybeanOil #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #GrainMarkets #CommodityMarkets #EPA #OOTT

Geopolitical risk just escalated — and energy and agriculture markets are reacting.Following a coordinated U.S.–Israel strike on Iran, crude oil prices surged as tanker traffic slowed through the Strait of Hormuz — the critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global crude exports.StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down what this means for:• Crude oil prices and global energy flows• Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions• Fertilizer supply risks (urea, ammonia, phosphate)• The spike in Gulf urea prices• Soy oil rally and rising biofuel demand• EPA biofuel RVO developments• U.S.–China trade tensions and Xi–Trump negotiationsWith fertilizer production concentrated in the Middle East and energy markets on edge, agriculture and commodity markets are tightly linked to unfolding geopolitical developments.Arlan also examines:• How long military disruptions could last• The risk of an Iranian power vacuum• Why China stands to lose if Iran’s regime changes• Whether higher crude prices could accelerate U.S. biofuel policyIf you trade or follow crude oil, grains, fertilizers, biofuels, or global macro markets, this is a critical update from the StoneX trading floor.Subscribe for ongoing commodity market analysis from StoneX. https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?

Are we witnessing a major shift in China’s agricultural trade policy?In today’s market update, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down the overnight headlines following President Trump’s call with China’s President Xi — and the 50‑cent surge in soybean futures that followed.In this episode, Arlan covers:Trump’s request for China to buy an additional 8 million metric tons of U.S. soybeansChina’s newly released “Number One Document” and a surprising shift away from self‑sufficiency messagingWhy Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper — and how that complicates U.S. export potentialWhat a forced Chinese purchase would mean for global basis levelsBiofuel policy expectations and the impact on U.S. crush demandWhy Arlan remains skeptical — but why the possibility still mattersStay informed on developments that could reshape U.S. export opportunities and global grain flows.Like & Subscribe for continued updates as the situation evolves.Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights:https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?

StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down the new 45Z clean fuel production credit and why carbon intensity (CI) scores now decide value. He details the post‑2025 North America‑only feedstock rule, high-risk status for imported used cooking oil (UCO), and the removal of ILUC—plus what he’s watching next from the EPA on RVOs.What’s inside:45Z is out: Technology‑neutral, CI‑driven credit (2025–2029)North America-only feedstocks after Dec 31, 2025 (no blending/dilution; origin matters)Imported UCO (EUCO) flagged as high risk; foreign UCO pathways excluded in 45Z CF GREET after 2025ILUC removed starting in 2026 → improves soy biodiesel CICredit math: CI score is the gatekeeper; up to $1/gal if PWA rules met (indexed)Winners vs. losers: Efficient, low‑CI plants vs. older, higher‑CI operationsMarket implications: U.S. soy oil structurally advantaged; crush margins supportedNext shoe to drop: EPA RVOs timing likely late Feb–early March (post OMB review)Like & Subscribe for real‑time market updates from the trading floor.Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?#StoneX #Biofuels #45Z #Soybeans #Biodiesel #RenewableDiesel #CarbonIntensity #GREET #EPA #RVO #UsedCookingOil #ILUC

In today’s Update From the Trading Floor, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down a major geopolitical development in China, a sweeping purge inside the Central Military Commission, and what it means for U.S. soybean exports, global commodity flows, and ongoing U.S.–China trade negotiations.Arlan explores:China's military leadership purge and why top generals close to President Xi are being removedSigns of cracks in Xi Jinping’s power base and how that increases geopolitical riskHow instability in China affects soybean shipments, biofuel demand, and global crushersThe status of U.S.–China trade talks following meetings at DavosWhy rare earth minerals and new Canada–China agreements may fuel fresh trade tensionsThe outlook for Brazilian and Argentine crops and competitiveness against U.S. soybeansHow Taiwan remains a key flash point and why China likely stays quiet for nowWith China’s military shaken and global markets watching closely, Arlan explains why the current climate may actually support U.S. soybean shipments in the near term — and what to watch next. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?Like & Subscribe to receive Arlan’s weekly updates from the trading floor.

President Trump addressed global leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, clarifying that the United States will not invade Greenland—a statement that helped ease market volatility after recent geopolitical fears rattled equities and commodities.In this morning update from the trading floor, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, breaks down:Why Greenland matters strategically and why invasion fears were overblownHow easing geopolitical tension is impacting financial and commodity marketsChina’s reported purchase of 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeansWhy soybean export risks remain skewed to the downsideWhat upcoming EPA biofuel guidance could mean for the soybean complexWith Brazilian supplies entering the global market and China likely finished buying U.S. soybeans for now, Arlan explains what needs to happen for USDA export targets to be met—and where the risks lie.Stay informed with real-time market insights directly from the trading floor.Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?

Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down how rare earth mineral supply chains, geopolitical strategy, and upcoming farm aid negotiations are influencing market sentiment.Arlan explains new White House findings on U.S. dependence on foreign processing, China’s rare earth export restrictions, and why Venezuela’s mineral resources add another layer to global leverage. He also highlights the latest developments on the $11.1B in farm aid, budget negotiations, and potential shutdown risk ahead of January 30.Topics:• Rare earth supply risk & China’s dominance• Venezuela’s role in mineral access• National security implications• Farm aid timelines & political dynamics• What traders and producers should watch🔔 Subscribe for daily updates from the StoneX trading floor.Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?

Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman breaks down how policy decisions, credit-market dynamics, and rising geopolitical tension are shaping commodity markets as the week begins.Coming to you from the trading floor, Arlan discusses renewed calls to cap consumer borrowing rates, why lower credit-card interest may stimulate spending in the short term but increase long‑term economic risk, and how markets tend to respond to government involvement in financial systems.Arlan then shifts to the global stage, examining whether the United States may be applying strategic economic pressure on China, drawing historical parallels to Cold War–era policy, military spending, and long‑term geopolitical competition. He explores how demographic trends, debt growth, and slowing investment could factor into future market dynamics.In this update:• Credit markets and consumer behavior• Short‑term stimulus vs. long‑term economic risk• Geopolitical strategy and historical parallels• China’s economic pressure points and global implications• Why outside markets matter more for commoditiesStay informed with daily insight from StoneX.Subscribe for commodity market updates from the trading floorGet exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?

The U.S. strike on Venezuela and the arrest of President Maduro could have ripple effects far beyond Latin America. Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, explains how China’s investments in Venezuela, the risk of troop deployment, and Taiwan’s flashpoint could reshape global trade and commodity markets.Key Insights:Venezuela’s oil reserves and U.S. sanctionsChina’s strategic foothold in South AmericaCould Taiwan tensions escalate?Impact on crude oil, soybeans, and U.S.-China tradeStay ahead of market-moving events with expert analysis. Subscribe for more insights from the trading floor!Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?#Venezuela #China #Taiwan #CommodityMarkets #CrudeOil #Soybeans #ArlanSuderman #StoneX

Join Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, for an in-depth look at the latest geopolitical developments and their impact on global commodity markets.Today’s discussion covers:China’s “Justice Mission 2025” military drills around Taiwan—the most intense yetWhy Taiwan remains the flashpoint that could derail U.S.–China trade dealsHistorical parallels with Russia–Ukraine and what they mean for future risksKey implications for grain, soybeans, and pork marketsAs we close out 2025, will tensions ease—or are we seeing signs of a bigger storm ahead? Arlan breaks down what traders and producers need to know heading into 2026.Subscribe for daily market insights.Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?#Commodities #TaiwanCrisis #China #GrainMarkets #Soybeans #StoneX #ArlanSuderman #GeopoliticsThe trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. © Copyright 2025. All rights reserved.

Join Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, for an in-depth market update from the trading floor. As the war surrounding Ukraine intensifies and attacks on Odessa’s port infrastructure escalate, global commodity flows face growing risks. Arlan covers:Black Sea tensions and the risk to grain and soybean shipmentsHow Russian strikes on Ukraine’s export terminals impact wheat and crude oil marketsHoliday trading dynamics and why low-volume sessions can lead to erratic price movesUSDA export sales data for corn, soybeans, wheat, and sorghumOutlook for Chinese soybean purchases, Brazil’s early harvest, and U.S. crush potentialCorn export sales trends and implications for USDA targetsStay informed on the factors shaping commodity prices, from geopolitical tensions to seasonal trading trends. Subscribe for more StoneX market insights and expert analysis. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. Ag Analyst Insights: https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insightsThe trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. © Copyright 2025. All rights reserved.

StoneX Presents: Arlan Suderman: Commodity Outlook – your trusted source for insight into the global forces driving commodity and agricultural markets. Join Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, as he breaks down the latest developments in the global economy, energy, and agriculture. From macroeconomic trends to crop fundamentals, Arlan delivers timely analysis to help producers, traders, and businesses navigate market volatility with confidence. Gain practical, data-driven insights to manage risk, spot opportunity, and understand the stories behind market moves. Stay informed. Stay ahead. Get exclusive access to daily insights, forecasts, and in-depth analysis from Arlan Suderman and the StoneX team with a subscription to U.S. https://shop.stonex.com/products/us-ag-analyst-insights?variant=45955623256164&selling_plan=4455792740The trading of derivatives such as futures, options, and over-the-counter (OTC) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Derivatives trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. © Copyright 2025. All rights reserved.