Prediction Markets HQ: Daily Sports

It is Monday, February 16th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market. In this Evening Edition, we re-verify our morning positions and look at live market movements for the night slate. We analyze the heavy volume hitting the Houston vs. Iowa State matchup and explain why the moneyline odds are shifting toward the Cougars. We also break down new additions to our portfolio, including Old Dominion and Colgate, using real-time data from Polymarket and Kalshi. Whether you are tracking defensive efficiency or looking for the best price on a bounce-back game, this episode provides the data-driven bets needed to adjust your prediction market portfolio. We also recap our current holds on Duke and Wagner as the board locks for the evening. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly. Contact: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

Correction Note: This follow-up recap corrects prior Feb 13-15 grading after deterministic scoreboard and matching fixes.It is Monday, February 16th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.In this episode of Prediction Market HQ, the desk audits a 6-7 session and discusses how to refine entry prices on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. We dive deep into the film room to analyze why IOWA STATE dismantled KANSAS and how we missed out on additional alpha by playing it too safe with our sports bets.The team also breaks down the heavy loss on the NAVY and COLGATE total, highlighting the importance of managing positions when the implied odds of a winning contract begin to plummet. Finally, Marcus Webb introduces the "Conviction Calibration" rule to help traders capture better yield when the data suggests a blowout is imminent.Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.Contact: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is Monday, February 16th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market. In this episode, we explore the Southland and MEAC schedules to identify statistical inefficiencies in the mid-major slate. We analyze real-time market data from Polymarket and Kalshi to find value in matchups like Southeastern Louisiana vs. East Texas A&M and Stephen F. Austin’s significant spread decoupling. Learn how to identify mispriced betting probabilities and why fading the public on total point odds for Wagner and Jackson State is the sharp play today.Contact: feedback@predictionmarketshq.comOpinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is February 16th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.On today's episode, we review the session's performance on Kalshi and Polymarket, starting with a deep dive into the IOWA STATE vs. KANSAS matchup. We analyze why the market mispriced the Kansas interior defense and how we can find more alpha by moving up the alt-spread ladder when our conviction is high.We also look at the lessons learned from the Vanderbilt vs. TEXAS A&M upset. Marcus explains why the 'Under' failed to hit and how prediction market participants can use liquidity to trigger stop-losses on losing positions rather than riding them to zero. Finally, we look at the Team World vs. USA Stars exhibition and discuss our new 'Conviction Calibration' rule for future college basketball bets.Portfolio Review: Tracking units and PnLFilm Room: Iowa State's tactical dominanceRisk Management: Stop-losses and liquidity on KalshiStrategic Evolution: Why execution beats predictionOpinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.Contact: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is Sunday, February 15th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.In this Evening Edition, we analyze the shifting landscape of prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. The team reviews winning positions on Rutgers and Duke while monitoring the closing lines for Michigan State's battle in Michigan. We also dive deep into a high-leverage opportunity in the WCC, breaking down why the San Francisco Dons offer significant value against a depleted San Diego roster following the departure of their leading scorer.NBA All-Star Stars round-robin market updates and hold positionsCollege basketball betting recaps: Rutgers and Duke winnersWCC game analysis: Why we are backing the Dons -4.5Daytona 500 market wash and exit strategyFor questions or to share your positions, contact us at: feedback@predictionmarketshq.comOpinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is Sunday, February 15th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.Today's episode dives into the brand new NBA All-Star round-robin format at the Intuit Dome, where we analyze why Team World’s size creates a massive edge in a 12-minute sprint. We also break down the transition advantages for the USA Stars and explore why the betting odds on the USA Stripes are overvalued following the loss of Steph Curry.In the college ranks, we look at why Rutgers is a prime play against a shorthanded Maryland squad and reveal a Horizon League "Dog of the Day" mispricing on the spread. Using real-time data from Kalshi and Polymarket, we identify where the sharp money is moving and where the public is falling into classic traps.Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.Contact: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is February 14, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market. In this session, the team recaps a dominant run in international hockey before pivoting to the live college basketball board where Kansas and Baylor are locked in a tight battle. We explore the latest betting data on Kalshi and Polymarket, specifically targeting the NBA Three-Point Contest and Canada's late-night game against Switzerland. Get the breakdown on current odds, line movements, and the best positions to hold as the Saturday slate concludes. For questions or comments, email feedback@predictionmarketshq.com. Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is February 14, 2026, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.On today's episode, we analyze the "Alpha" in Ames as No. 19 Kansas takes on No. 5 Iowa State. We also break down the Patriot League clash between Navy and Colgate, searching for mispriced probability on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. From total unders in Nashville to our underdog play of the day with Texas A&M, we provide the data-driven insights you need to navigate moving market odds. Our hosts track betting movements for the Midshipmen, Jayhawks, and Aggies to find where the value lies.For questions or feedback, contact us at feedback@predictionmarketshq.com.Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is Friday, February 13th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market. In this evening edition, we analyze massive market corrections forcing us to bail on Niagara and George Mason while holding our convictions on Princeton, Yale, and Iona.We dive deep into the late-night board on Polymarket and Kalshi to find value in the Big Ten and Mountain West matchups. Our analysts explain why the odds are shifting toward Wisconsin at home and why Boise State is a strong play against UNLV. Whether you are tracking movement on prediction market apps or looking for last-minute college basketball odds, this episode covers the volume-driven shifts you need to know.Bail: Niagara & George MasonHold: Princeton, Yale, & IonaLate Adds: Wisconsin & Boise StateQuestions? Reach out to feedback@predictionmarketshq.com.Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is Friday, February 13, 2026, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.With the NBA heading into the All-Star break, sharp money is flooding the college basketball markets. Today, we break down five specific picks where the probability is mispriced. We leverage real-time data from Polymarket and Kalshi to identify where the betting value lies, from Niagara's perimeter shooting advantage to Villanova's efficiency margin against Butler.We also reveal our Dog of the Day, highlighting a high-variance environment where the current odds don't match the true win probability. Whether you are tracking the MAAC or the A-10, this episode provides the data-driven insights needed to navigate tonight's board.Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.feedback@predictionmarketshq.com"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is Friday, February 13, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.In this episode of Prediction Market HQ, the team conducts a deep-dive portfolio audit. We analyze a frustrating moneyline loss on the KINGS and look at how the odds shifted during the PACERS and BUCKS matchup. Marcus breaks down the systemic failure in pricing the Bobby Portis prop and why paying a premium for 'safe' bets on the SEAHAWKS is a losing long-term strategy on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.We also discuss 'Missed Alpha' in the Joel Embiid markets and how to adjust your risk calibration to ensure your winning bet translates to maximum PnL. Whether you are trading NBA spreads or NFL team totals, understanding the implied probability of these odds is key to becoming a profitable trader.Questions or comments? Reach out to: feedback@predictionmarketshq.comOpinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is February 12th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market. On this evening edition, we re-verify our morning positions as injury news shifts the landscape for the BUCKS and THUNDER. We analyze why the value has surged in our favor and check the status of our NBA player props for the TRAIL BLAZERS and LAKERS games. Using data from Polymarket and Kalshi, we identify late-breaking opportunities in college basketball, including a heavy play on HIGH POINT and our 'Dog of the Day' North Texas. Whether you are tracking moneyline odds or specific scoring totals, this episode provides the technical breakdown of where the sharp money is moving tonight. Stay ahead of the market with our final portfolio recap for the Thursday slate. Feedback? Email us at: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is April 12, 2024, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market. In this episode, we explore how injury reports are creating unique opportunities on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, specifically focusing on the massive spread in the BUCKS and THUNDER matchup.We analyze several key player prop markets, including Vít Krejčí’s points total and Naji Marshall’s projected regression. Our team utilizes Polymarket data to find the 'Alpha' in these skeleton rotations, ensuring you have the latest odds before tip-off. We also reveal our 'Dog of the Day' focusing on the rebounding market for P.J. Washington as size returns to the Lakers' frontcourt.Whether you are looking for high-conviction value plays or tracking market liquidity on Kalshi, this episode provides the analytical edge required for today's bets.Contact: feedback@predictionmarketshq.comOpinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is Wednesday, February 11th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market. Tonight’s slate is defined by significant injury news forcing massive movement on Polymarket and Kalshi. We explore why the Giannis scratch makes the MAGIC a prime double-down target and how the KNICKS moneyline is reacting to the uncertainty surrounding Joel Embiid.Marcus dives into the specific scoring odds for Devin Booker and why the sharp money is hammering the over in the Hawks-Hornets shootout. We also break down the interior mismatches in the Raptors-Pistons game to help you find the best bets before the markets lock. From first-half spreads to player props, get the data-driven edge for this evening’s portfolio.Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.Contact: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is Wednesday, February 11th, 2026, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.On today's episode, we dive into a massive NBA board, starting with why the Rockets 1H spread is the play of the day against a struggling Clippers rotation. We also analyze the total for Hawks vs. Hornets and explain why the market odds on Kalshi and Polymarket haven't fully adjusted to the thin rotations in Orlando and Milwaukee.Finally, we reveal our 'Dog of the Day' in Toronto, capitalizing on a massive mispricing caused by Detroit's frontcourt suspensions. Join us as we track how the sharp money is moving across Polymarket to find the best edge for your sports bets.Contact us: feedback@predictionmarketshq.comOpinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is Tuesday, February 10th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.After a perfect 5-0 sweep of the morning slate, the team turns their attention to the evening board. We provide deep-dive analysis into the New York Knicks vs. Indiana Pacers total, the Houston Rockets spread against the Clippers, and a high-value player prop for Devin Booker. We also head to the college ranks to look at the betting value for Miami against North Carolina and Houston versus Utah.Using data from Polymarket and Kalshi, we identify where the sharp money is moving to help you find the best odds before tip-off. Whether you are tracking point spreads or looking for total value, this episode covers the most important movements in the prediction market today.Feedback? Email us at: feedback@predictionmarketshq.comOpinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is February 9th, 2026, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.On today's episode, we dive into late-breaking injury reports shifting the math on Kalshi and Polymarket. From Giannis Antetokounmpo being ruled out to James Harden's defensive impact in Cleveland, we are tracking how the sharp money is influencing tonight's betting lines.BUCKS & MAGIC: Analyzing the spread movement and bench depth odds in the wake of major injury news.CAVS & NUGGETS: Why the absence of defensive anchors makes the over one of our favorite bets of the night.TIMBERWOLVES & HAWKS: A breakdown of the moneyline value and Anthony Edwards' scoring potential.College Basketball: A live look at the pace and total odds for the Navy and Bucknell matchup.We wrap up with a full portfolio recap to help you track the ledger as these games tip off. For questions or comments, reach out to us at: feedback@predictionmarketshq.comOpinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is February 9, 2026, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.On today's episode, the team dives into a heavy NBA slate and Patriot League action. We analyze the market data from Kalshi and Polymarket to find alpha in the injury reports and regression trends. We cover why the Milwaukee Bucks are undervalued against the Orlando Magic and deep-dive into player prop odds for Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis, and Deni Avdija.Key segments include:NBA betting analysis for Bucks vs. Magic and Kings vs. Pelicans.Why the Cleveland defense makes the Nikola Jokic points under one of tonight's strongest bets.Dog of the Day: Targeting the over in the Navy vs. Bucknell matchup.Feedback: feedback@predictionmarketshq.comOpinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is Monday, February 9th, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.Today we dive into a diverse board starting with the JAZZ and HEAT, analyzing why rookie Isaiah Collier faces a steep climb against a stout Miami defense. We explore the mobility issues affecting Domantas Sabonis as the KINGS face the PELICANS and explain why the CAVS and NUGGETS headliner is a lock for a high-scoring shootout on Polymarket and Kalshi.In the college ranks, we find value in the Navy vs Bucknell matchup before revealing why the Brooklyn Nets are our favorite underdog play against a struggling Bulls rotation. We use real-time market data to track where the 'Alpha' is moving before the evening liquidity hits.Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.Contact: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript

It is Sunday, February 8th, 2026, join hosts Alex Mercer and Marcus Webb as they break down the sharpest bets and odds in the market.As Super Bowl LX kicks off in Santa Clara, we analyze the massive liquidity and late-breaking volume on Polymarket and Kalshi. Marcus Webb details why the model is pivoting to the Under for the SEAHAWKS vs. PATRIOTS showdown and locking in high-conviction team total positions. We also review today's NBA ledger, including successful bets on the KNICKS and HEAT.Contact: feedback@predictionmarketshq.comOpinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly."Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 Licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Read Transcript