Unqualified Advice

Hello dear show notes readers! This week on Unqualified Advice, the energy was all over the place — and we kind of loved it. Dan opens with a Jeremy Piven mantra about getting the f*** after it, and it turns out that's basically the thesis for the whole hour. We start in the Fourth Turning framework — Dan's been refining his theory that the turn itself has happened, and now we're watching the energies release into velocities that'll shape the new order. Heavy stuff, but it clicked for both of us this time around. From there we land on ICE enforcement, and Dan delivers what might be the sharpest framing we've had: you've hired ideological agents rather than rule-of-law agents. That sent us into Stasi territory, Ceaușescu's Romania, and a real question about whether a preference cascade is finally building. We take a breather with book talk (Dan's halfway through The Sympathizer and I'm looking for my next read), TV talk (Pluribus on Apple TV is a wild hive-mind premise from Vince Gilligan), and adventure talk (Alex Honnold free-climbed Taipei 101 and Dan once ran up it via stairs in 18 minutes). Dan tells a great Annapurna Base Camp story and we both agree that nothing makes you as hungry as altitude. Then it gets philosophical. We dig into AI and the next generation — Dan's fish-and-water analogy for kids growing up with these tools is going to stick with me. We talk about the failure to teach civics, the need to choose processes over outcomes, and why "mind coughing" (not mind comping) your ideas onto others is how change actually spreads. Mimetics, baby. The back half is a deep dive on generational power: Boomers hold 60 Senate seats despite being 24% of the population, three presidents were born in 1946, and a viral tweet about the $6K senior tax bonus captures the frustration perfectly. Sean calls nostalgia the most toxic of emotions; Dan says it's not even dirty fuel you can burn. We wrap with a conversation about AI deepfakes eroding trust, the printing press as a turning catalyst, and a close we're pretty proud of: go build something this week. Thanks for listening. If any of this made you think, argue, or text someone a screenshot — that's what we're here for. Cheers, Sean Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍 We said some things. Here's how we did. 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it 🟡 Greenland is ours via a 1951 treaty Dan said "Greenland is ours via a 1951 treaty." The 1951 agreement is a US-Denmark defense agreement that gave the US basing rights in Greenland (Thule Air Base). It is not a transfer of sovereignty. Greenland remains a Danish autonomous territory. The defense logic Dan cited is real — Greenland is strategically critical for US missile defense — but "ours" is a significant overstatement of what the treaty actually says. 🟢 Three presidents born in 1946: Clinton, Bush, Trump Sean said three presidents were all born in 1946. Confirmed. Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946), George W. Bush (July 6, 1946), and Donald Trump (June 14, 1946) were all born the same year — the first year of the Baby Boom. 🟡 Boomers hold 60 Senate seats / ~24% of population Sean looked this up live using AI during the show and cited 60 seats and 20–24% of the population. Baby Boomers (born 1946–1964) make up roughly 21–23% of the US population as of 2025. The 60-seat Senate figure is plausible for the 119th Congress but would benefit from verification against the latest roster, as retirements and special elections shift the count. The 3X overrepresentation point stands either way. 🟡 Taipei 101 climb took an hour and a half Dan said it took Honnold "an hour and a half to scale the outside." This should be verified against reporting. Dan's own stair run took 18 minutes, which he contrasts with the free-climb time. The broad point about it being a long, grueling ascent is reasonable. 🟡 Mt. Elbert is the tallest 14-er in Colorado Dan called it "Mount Albert" but clearly means Mt. Elbert (14,440 ft), which is indeed the highest peak in Colorado and the tallest 14-er in the Rockies. Sean catches the name in the transcript. The substance is correct; the name is garbled. 🟡 20–30% of New England heat from garbage and wood Sean attributed this stat to Javier Blas on Bloomberg. The general claim that New England has an unusually high reliance on heating oil, wood, and waste-to-energy relative to the rest of the US is well-documented. The specific 20–30% figure for garbage and wood during a cold snap should be verified against the actual Bloomberg data. Sean did note it was from a credible source and flagged his own uncertainty on details. Final Score: 1 green, 5 yellow, 0 red Not bad for two guys riffing without Google open. We'll take it.

Welcome to Flow City Hello dear show notes readers! This week on Unqualified Advice, Dan's been writing again. His latest Prometheus Dispatch essay on pseudo events — manufactured moments designed to create energy rather than report on it — kicks us off and leads to a conversation neither of us expected. We start with Kennedy-Nixon, swing through Greenland headlines, and land squarely on California's proposed billionaire tax, which turns out to be a far more interesting topic than the name suggests. We break it down: who it actually targets (~200 people), why the name "billionaire tax" is doing a lot of political heavy lifting, how it could trigger down rounds across Silicon Valley, and what happens when capital decides it's had enough. Venezuela and North Korea show up as cautionary tales. As they do. The big question we kept circling back to: are we entering a decade of flow or a decade of friction? We landed on a framework we're pretty proud of — expect the world to run more like Sun Tzu, but navigate it personally with Lao Tzu and Wu Wei. Dan calls it realpolitik meets riding the wave, which honestly might be the whole show in six words. Along the way, we get into why Texas quietly builds more green energy than anyone (narrative violation alert), why EVs got politicized instead of just adopted, when BYD might change everything, and why the best answer Dan ever learned at Columbia Business School was "it depends." Thanks for listening. If any of this made you think, argue, or text someone a screenshot — that's what we're here for. Cheers, Sean Books Discussed: The Image by Daniel Boorstin Private Truths, Public Lies by Timur Kuran What's Our Problem? by Tim Urban The Art of War by Sun Tzu Tao Te Ching by Lao Tzu The Art of the Deal by Donald Trump The Prince by Machiavelli "Flack" Substack by Lulu Cheng Meservey Companies Discussed: Tesla BYD Huawei Ford Cargill Polymarket Kalshi Links & References: Dan's Prometheus Dispatch: prometheusdispatch.com Lulu Cheng Meservey's "Flack" Substack: getflack.com Unqualified Fact-Check 🔍 We said some things. Here's how we did. 🟢 = Nailed it | 🟡 = Close enough | 🔴 = Whiffed it 🟢 90% healthcare / 10% education split on the California billionaire tax Sean said 90% goes to healthcare and 10% to education and food assistance. That's essentially correct. The actual text allocates 90% to healthcare and 10% to K-12 education, with some language around food assistance as well. Score one for Sean. 🟢 ~200 people affected Sean said the tax would impact about 200–300 people. Multiple sources (CalMatters, CBS News, SF Standard) consistently cite approximately 200–255 California billionaires. Right in the zone. 🟡 Prediction market odds: ~65% on ballot, ~40% to pass Sean cited roughly 65% odds of making the ballot and 40% of passing. Current Polymarket has the "on ballot" market at about 59–60%, and the "passes" market at 37–40% (Kalshi 38%, Polymarket ~30–40% range). His "pass" number was spot on. The "on ballot" number was a touch high but in the ballpark. We'll give him a yellow. 🟡 Trump's 2016 odds were "in the 30s" Dan said Trump's prediction market odds in 2016 were "in the 30s." PredictIt had Clinton at 80–82% on election night, meaning Trump was at 18–20%. FiveThirtyEight's model had Trump at about 29%. So depending on which source you pick, Trump was somewhere between 18–29% — more like the teens-to-high-twenties than the thirties. Close-ish. We'll give it a yellow for the 538 number being 29%. 🟡 8 million Venezuelans have fled Sean said "8 million people, I believe, from Venezuela that have fled the country" and then wondered if that was just in the US. The real number: approximately 7.9 million Venezuelan refugees and migrants worldwide (per UNHCR). Only about 770,000 are in the United States. The 8 million worldwide number is right; attributing it to the US would be way off. Sean did flag his uncertainty, so partial credit. 🟢 Texas leads the nation in green/renewable energy Sean stated Texas is the leader in green energy nationwide. This is confirmed and then some. Texas generated 169,442 GWh from wind and solar in 2024 — nearly double California's 92,316 GWh. Texas leads in wind, is #1 or #2 in solar depending on the metric, and has been the national renewable energy leader for over a decade. Narrative violation confirmed. 🟡 EV sales peaked in 2023 and are "down about 10% from peak" Sean said EV sales kind of peaked in 2023 and are down roughly 10%. Tesla sales specifically peaked in 2023 and have declined since. But total US EV sales actually grew 7%+ in 2024 to a record ~1.3 million units, then dipped about 2% in 2025 to ~1.275 million. So total EVs haven't really dropped 10% from peak — it's more like 2%. Tesla's decline is steeper. The direction is right but the magnitude is overstated. 🟡 Dan's home state Colorado has "60% coal" for electricity Dan said "we have 60% coal" for his electricity in Colorado. Here's the thing — he was right about a decade ago. Colorado's coal-fired generation was indeed at 60% in 2014. But it's dropped fast: down to 33% in 2023 and just 27–28% in 2024. Wind now provides 30% of Colorado's electricity, and renewables overall hit 43% in 2024. Dan's number is outdated by about 10 years, but he wasn't making it up — at least the number existed in recent memory. 🔴 James Garfield: "1864ish, 1863" Sean dated James Garfield to the 1860s. Garfield was nominated in 1880, inaugurated in 1881, and assassinated in 1881. Off by almost two decades. However, Sean's story about how Garfield became president is largely accurate and actually undersells it: Garfield went to the convention as a congressman to nominate someone else (John Sherman), gave a nominating speech so powerful that after 36 ballots of deadlock, the delegates chose him instead. He was then shot by a deranged office-seeker four months into his presidency. Great story, wrong decade. 🟢 Garfield was a congressman who gave a great speech and became president Despite the date being off, the substance of Sean's Garfield story checks out. Garfield was indeed a congressman (actually an 8-term congressman), he delivered a speech at a contested convention that turned the crowd in his favor, and after 36 ballots he was nominated as a dark horse. Then assassinated. All accurate. BONUS ID: Dan couldn't remember the name of "The Flack" Substack author — said "Treverney something" with a hyphenated last name. The person he's describing is Lulu Cheng Meservey, who writes the Substack called "Flack" (at getflack.com) and coined the "go direct" communications movement. Final Score: 4 green, 5 yellow, 1 red Not bad for two guys riffing without Google open. We'll take it. Chapters 00:00 – Intro 01:22 – Dan's Prometheus Dispatch & the Art of Not Assuming 03:38 – Pseudo Events: From Kennedy-Nixon to Today 05:26 – Greenland, Geopolitics & the Art of the Deal 06:31 – California's Billionaire Tax: What's Really at Stake 11:20 – The Naming Battle: Why "Billionaire Tax" Is Dangerous Framing 12:40 – Down Rounds, Capital Flight & Unintended Consequences 17:11 – Venezuela & North Korea: The Long Game of Systems 22:02 – Stated vs. Revealed Preferences: Texas Builds More Green Energy 23:55 – A Decade of Flow or a Decade of Friction? 26:53 – BYD, Huawei & the Future of EVs in North America 33:19 – The Kano Model & EV Adoption S-Curves 36:29 – Realpolitik and the Preference Cascade Goes Global 41:31 – Ride the Wave: Sun Tzu Meets Lao Tzu 44:50 – "It Depends" — The Most Defeating Answer 49:14 – Fed Independence Tease & Closing

Dan and Sean kick off 2026 with a look back at their 2025 predictions—what hit, what missed, and what's carrying over into the new year. From government shutdowns to Big Tech dominance to the DEI pendulum swing, they grade their calls before diving into what's ahead. The big theme for 2026? Geopolitics. With power shifting in Venezuela, potential regime change in Iran, and Trump making noise about Cuba, the hosts break down their "cold Fourth Turning" thesis—consequential global realignment without World War-scale conflict. On AI, they push back on the "hype bubble bursting" narrative with real examples of transformative use (including Dan having Claude work on projects while he slept). They also dig into economic policy critique, the resilience of the American economy despite central planning missteps, and why they're cautiously bullish on 2026. Key Topics: 2025 predictions scorecard Geopolitics as the defining story of 2026 Taiwan's slow-motion transition (the Hong Kong playbook) AI: public perception vs. actual capability Aggregation theory and ecosystem opportunities Economic outlook: muddling through despite bad policy Links & References: Ben Thompson's Aggregation Theory: stratechery.com The Road to Serfdom by Friedrich Hayek (and the 1940s cartoon adaptation) The Fourth Turning by Strauss & Howe JOLTS Data: Bureau of Labor Statistic

What starts as a travel recap turns into a wide-ranging conversation about manufacturing, geopolitics, surveillance, and the quiet signals of national confidence. Sean is back stateside after several weeks in China and Japan, where he was auditing suppliers and rethinking what tariffs, supply chains, and "reshoring" actually look like on the ground. From panda diplomacy and traffic that "flows like water," to EV adoption, special economic zones, and cashless surveillance states, the conversation moves quickly from observation to implication. Along the way, Dan and Sean explore why China's manufacturing base keeps getting stronger even as the U.S. talks about bringing jobs home, how switching costs quietly drive de-industrialization, and why blocking progress at every turn may be the most expensive policy choice of all. The discussion expands outward—touching on AI, misinformation, drone warfare, Taiwan, chips, and why history often feels utopian only in retrospect. If Rome, Athens, or Florence were messy while they were happening, maybe that's the real lesson: we're living in history right now. Pandas, it turns out, make excellent diplomats. They're calm, patient, and impossible to rush. Maybe there's something in that.   Topics covered What supply chain audits in China actually look like Tariffs, switching costs, and why April changed everything EV adoption, license plate incentives, and urban policy Special economic zones as policy experiments Cashless convenience vs centralized surveillance AI translation, misinformation, and "the only way out is through" Drone warfare, Taiwan, and fragile chip supply chains Civic pride, cleanliness, and the tragedy of the commons Why America struggles to build—and what that costs Rome wasn't utopian either

After an unintended "summer break" that didn't feel much like one, Dan and Sean are back at the mics. This episode ranges from the personal to the global: burnout, survivor's guilt, therapy culture, and the constant tug-of-war between staying informed and staying sane. On the business and economics front, they dive into tariffs, reshoring, and whether Intel should be nationalized. From semiconductor foundries to data center booms, robots that work for $5 an hour, and the inevitability of bubbles, the conversation traces how global systems reconfigure under pressure. Books and ideas also surface: Abigail Shrier's Bad Therapy, Lanny Bassham's With Winning in Mind, Robert Anton Wilson's Prometheus Rising, and Hans Rosling's Factfulness. The through-line? How to balance inner chatter, community, and coping strategies in a time when, as Dan puts it, "we are moving from an age of thinking into an age of feeling." Along the way: Why over-therapy might be counterproductive Gen Z and the "lost rites of passage" (driving, dating, drinking) Corn subsidies, Eli Lilly, and the high-fructose dilemma What Clarkson's Farm gets right (and wrong) about farming How cultural norms shape family, community, and loneliness It's part catch-up, part forecast, and part reckoning — a reminder that sometimes the best strategy is just to "keep your head above water and ride the wave."

This week, Dan and Sean dive into the deep end of economic uncertainty—from the philosophical origins of "the economy" to the lived reality of layoffs, inflation, and shifting trade routes. Why do oil rigs in North Dakota matter to the price of cheese? Are we witnessing demand destruction or just another panic? And what does "creative destruction" really look like when the grenades are turning into landmines? Along the way: internal combustion nerdery, fourth turning fatigue, and a fair bit of macroeconomic exasperation. If you're feeling off-balance in today's economy, you're not alone. We're all just trying to stay afloat in choppy waters—and sometimes the best you can do is keep your head up and wait for the next swell. Books Discussed: In This Economy? – Kyla Scanlon A Splendid Exchange – William J. Bernstein Amusing Ourselves to Death – Neil Postman The Fourth Turning – William Strauss and Neil Howe The Siege – Ben Macintyre The Fifth Risk (and a new companion) – Michael Lewis Podcasts Referenced: Odd Lots Hidden Forces (Grant Williams + Demetri Kofinas – The Hundred Year Pivot) The Fed Guy (Joseph Wang) Quote of the Week: "They're not grenades anymore—they're landmines we've set for ourselves." Chapters: 00:00 – Weekend work and the managerial grind 01:00 – Oilfield layoffs and sour vs. sweet crude 04:00 – Why internal combustion is still the apex of engineering 06:00 – What does "economy" actually mean? (spoiler: it's Greek) 10:00 – Sheep barons, trade routes, and the roots of specialization 14:00 – Consumer sentiment vs. reality: is the mismatch getting worse? 18:00 – Tariffs, inflation, and the risk of stagflation 24:00 – Layoffs, rate cuts, and the Fed's boxed-in dilemma 30:00 – Budget gaps, fake fixes, and the math that doesn't math 34:00 – The future of global trade (with or without us) 39:00 – Will the Fed move fast enough—or too late again? 45:00 – NIH cuts and the role of scientific "waste" 51:00 – A fresh read from Michael Lewis + other book recs 56:00 – The fourth turning isn't over: the ecpyrosis continues 59:00 – Swimming, surfing, or just floating through it all 1:04:00 – Walmart's margins and the myth of "just eating" tariffs 1:10:00 – Median income, optionality, and the meaning of wealth 1:13:00 – Outro: shifting sands and the promise (or threat) of change

Dan and Sean return to the mic with a message for the wanderers, the misfits, and the intellectually restless. This episode explores what it means to seek challenge instead of comfort, to embrace unfinished thoughts, and to carve out space for messy, real-time reflection. If you've ever felt like a mental nomad—curious but unrooted—this one's for you. Topics Covered: Why we sometimes feel allergic to routines The surprising difficulty of "simple" goals Building the room when you don't fit the ones you find Podcasting as an act of unscripted exploration The value of talking through your thoughts before they're fully baked

Hello show notes readers! This week, we're trying something new in our mission to bring you insights from the world of entrepenuership.  We're bringing in an outside expert to exlpore an area of entrepeneurship that some of you may have thought about - real estate! This week, we're joined by Lindsay Howard, broker and entrepreneur, for a deep dive into the real world of real estate — starting a family brokerage, surviving the NAR commission shakeup, why Zillow is the villain nobody asked for, and how the 6% mortgage panic is mostly a memory issue. We also talk through the hidden challenges of working with builders, why every new agent needs a second income stream, and what's really driving the current buyer's market. Plus: the forgotten days of Rolodex MLS listings and 15% mortgage rates. Whether you are thinking about diving into real estate, or just wondering why every third house on your street has a "For Sale" sign, we hope this episode will help give you some new insights.  Thanks for listening to Unqualified Advice. If you're looking for a Houston-area agent — or just want to learn more about Lindsay — visit HowardHomeRealty.com.

🧵 Episode Summary In this episode, Dan and Sean delve into the complexities of tariffs, the decline of U.S. manufacturing, and the philosophical underpinnings of leadership. They challenge conventional narratives around NAFTA, explore the historical impact of events like the bombing of Dresden, and discuss the strategic philosophies of Sun Tzu, Lao Tzu, and Donald Trump. The conversation also touches on the challenges of reshoring manufacturing, the intricacies of global supply chains, and the disparities faced by U.S. sellers on platforms like Amazon. 📚 References & Mentions Books: The Maniac (historical fiction on John von Neumann) A Splendid Exchange by William J. Bernstein The Tao Te Ching – Lao Tzu The Art of War – Sun Tzu The Art of the Deal – Donald Trump Substacks: Market Memo: Seeing the Stag from Citrini Research - Companies: Amazon Apple Craftsman Chevron Exxon Unusual Whales 🕰️ Chapter Breakdown 00:00 – Mustelid Mischief: A Ferret Allegory for Tariffs 01:18 – Who We Are: Sean and Dan Reintroduce Themselves 03:03 – Liberation Day and Tariff Mayhem 06:56 – Options, Whiplash, and Quiet Billionaires 09:21 – From Bretton Woods to Financialized Fragility 13:05 – The Myth of NAFTA and Manufacturing Decline 16:23 – America, Socks, and the Imaginary Labor Army 19:02 – Merchant Marines and Military Logistics 24:33 – Deep Supply Chains, Shallow Solutions 29:19 – Nukes and the Trigger Points of War 34:03 – The Compound Effects of Complexity 36:25 – The Tao of Strategy: Sun Tzu, Trump, and Lao Tzu 44:48 – Governance by Table: Three Philosophies Compared 48:20 – Amazon's Tilted Playing Field and Ecom Frustrations 52:48 – Bezos vs. Jassy: Vision, Risk, and Systems Thinking 59:40 – An Economic NATO? Supply Chain Strategy for the Future 1:02:07 – Why We Can't Make a Wrench 1:10:02 – Corporate Whiplash, Lead Times, and Stainless Steel 1:14:14 – The Stock Market Is Not the Economy 1:17:21 – Book Recs and Trading as Human Nature

In this episode, Dan and Sean navigate through numbness, nuance, and the uncomfortable edges of modern life. From tariffs and fentanyl policy to the messy mechanics of entrepreneurship, they discuss the complicated reality of staying engaged in a world that often feels overwhelming. Also on deck: what it really means to be an entrepreneur, thoughts on Prometheus Rising, unfair competition on Amazon, and a shoutout to 23andMe's vanishing business model. Oh, and if you see a quarter, pick it up. Topics include: – Volatility and numbness in 2025 – Dan's new startup idea (inspired by Skype's shutdown) – Surviving tariffs, uncertainty, and unfair Amazon practices – Fentanyl and the difference between drug policy and public safety – Thoughts on Prometheus Rising and reality tunnels – Survivorship bias, investing parlor games, and the danger of hindsight – Trying not to get drafted Books discussed: – Prometheus Rising by Robert Anton Wilson – Abduction: Human Encounters with Aliens by John E. Mack – The Comfort Crisis by Michael Easter – References to ideas by Jim O'Shaughnessy and Ben Hunt

Hello show notes readers, What is writing? What is art? Did I create this or did a robot and how would you be able to tell the difference? This week we coin the term "adverbious", hoping to prove we aren't robots and also to give you a tool to figure out who the robots are. We can't define it but we know it when we see it, if you know what I mean?  Later, we delve into Dan's masterful schedule management as an entrepreneur. Dan explains what it took to get there, what it takes to maintain, and why it is one of the biggest benefits of entrepreneurship.  Finally, we get a little woo and explore the work of Robert Anton Wilson. I share some early thoughts from Prometheus Rising and Dan provides some context from other authors.  As always, thanks for listening! We welcome your feedback! Find Dan at www.twitter.com/danielhatke or Sean at www.twitter.com/slowvsm.  📚 Books Discussed Prometheus Rising by Robert Anton Wilson The Expectation Effect by David Robson Antifragile by Nassim Nicholas Taleb    Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Hello show notes readers! This week, Sean and Dan look into the rhythms of the oil and gas world — how things speed up, slow down, and sometimes just stop. They talk about layoffs making headlines, how organizations expand and contract like they're breathing, and what it feels like to be on the inside when that happens. Sean explains why fewer rigs don't always mean less oil, and why the people most affected aren't always the ones you'd think. They get into how managers try (sometimes awkwardly) to protect and coach people, what it's like to get blindsided, and why being chased by a metaphorical predator might not be all bad — at least for keeping you sharp. The converstion takes a detour into parenting, classrooms, and whether pulling your kid out of tough situations helps or hurts in the long run. Plus: what homeschooling has in common with org charts, why messy code and stuck loops are part of building anything, and a few thoughts on agency, grace, and figuring out when to hold on or let go. Books Discussed Prometheus Rising – Robert Anton Wilson; explores consciousness, reality tunnels, and mindset shifts. Factfulness – Hans Rosling; emphasizes how the world is improving despite negative perceptions. The Fifth Risk – Michael Lewis; highlights essential but overlooked government jobs and inefficiencies. Lectures Referenced Neville Goddard: https://youtu.be/zXsZnDakDVA     Chapters 00:00 - Weather and Cyclicality 01:07 - Oil Layoffs & Market Trends 02:55 - Why the U.S. Exports Oil 06:38 - Fracking & Efficiency Gains 07:34 - The Workplace "Breathes" 12:47 - The Role of Fear & Agency 16:52 - Education & Homeschooling Trends 28:38 - AI, Coding, and Debugging Frustrations 40:57 - AI Slack Bots for Work Productivity 50:43 - Prometheus Rising & Reality Tunnels 55:15 - Telepathy Tapes & The Tower of Babel 1:02:00 - Manifestation & The Power of Thought 1:06:02 - Government Jobs & Bureaucracy Debates 1:17:05 - Wrapping Up: Big Topics & Future Thoughts

Hello dear show notes reader, We're 25 episodes in! Woo hoo! (Imagine Leslie Knope. Now read the italicized bit again.) As the author of these show notes, I feel like 25 should be a significant number, but I also don't have any valid reason why. Nonetheless, I felt inspired to make these show notes really shine! What's good about this episode? While editing, I had two realizations: Dan is a better podcast host than I am. (I'll deal with that emotionally later.) This episode's format unintentionally gave me a meta-analysis moment—right here, in these show notes. Here's what I mean: we both read long quotes from books we've been chewing on. When one of us shares a quote, we know a follow-up question is coming—something like "What do you think?" Since we expect it, we listen more actively, playing with the idea in real time instead of waiting for our turn to speak. By the time the sharer is done, the listener is already mentally off to the races, turning the quote over, looking for angles. That made for some damn good back-and-forths. What's bad about this episode? The prep work. As you will hear, we listened to the auidobook version of The Sovereign Individual, by Jame Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg, and neither of us enjoyed it. But we hope you enjoy our discussion about this slog of a book.    Books Discussed The Sovereign Individual by James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe Prometheus Rising by Robert Anton Wilson The Tao Te Ching by Laotzi Three-Body Problem by Liu Xicin   Chapter Titles with Timestamps [00:00] "Should We Just Move to a Tax Haven?" [02:11] "Books That Should Have Been Shorter" [04:33] "Did They Predict the Future?" [06:48] "The Doomers Strike Again" [10:16] "Technology Changes Power, but Does It Decentralize It?" [17:59] "The Cyber Economy That Wasn't" [24:39] "Populism, Power, and the Small Guy's Revenge" [32:40] "Why Build a Few Big Things When You Can Build a Million Small Ones?" [41:52] "Has the Outrage Faded?" [45:31] "Should Governments Pay for Performance?" [54:11] "The Future of Democracy and Its Critics" [58:39] "Loneliness, Power, and the Failure of Community"

Hello dear show notes readers! In this episode of Unqualified Advice we discuss our recent experiences writing code for building websites and apps with Cursor. In short, we're having a blast working with these new tools and have a few tips for those just getting started. We've recommended it before, but it's worth repeating Nat Eliason's Course Build Your Own Life Coach is a great course for beginners wanting to get started. And here is a demo of GumLoop from Greg Isenberg's channel on YouTube that impressed us both.  In the back-half of the episode, Dan stumbles across Nietzsche's Modern Vices and we try to determine our views on overwork, curiosity, and sympathy.  Books & Influences Mentioned The Machiavellians, defenders of freedom by James Burnham: Recommended as a read on political freedom and preference falsification. Boom by Bern Hobart: Suggested for its fresh perspective on economic and innovation booms. Amusing Ourselves to Death by Neil Postman: Referenced when discussing modern media, communication, and information overload. Abduction by John E. Mack: Mentioned in the context of case studies on alien abductions, altered states of consciousness, and The Telepathy Tapes. Nietzsche's Ideas: The discussion on modern vices is heavily inspired by Nietzsche's critique of overwork, vague curiosity, and universal sympathy   Chapters 00:00 Introduction and Current Events 02:56 Navigating Bureaucracy and Organizational Dynamics 05:37 Leadership Styles: Wartime vs. Peacetime CEOs 08:29 Embracing Change and Future Planning 11:17 Exploring New Skills and Content Creation 14:00 Technical Challenges and Innovations in Development 21:37 Exploring Competitors and AI Tools 26:31 Building in Public: Branding and Messaging 30:57 Modern Vices: Overwork, Curiosity, and Sympathy 39:58 Navigating Organizational Changes with Compassion 45:24 Exploring the Concept of Booms in Society 50:13 AI and Contextual Understanding

Hello dear show notes readers! Welcome to another episode of Unqualified Advice. We recorded this one on Inauguration Day, so a few viewpoints have already been proven wildly-off or dead-on. We hit a lot of topics this week, as we catch up on our recent podcast addiction (The Telepathy Tapes) and what *it all means, man!* If you're a fan of sci-fi or an opponent of generational bashing, this one is for you! Themes Discussed Generational Differences: Millennials vs. Zoomers, attitudes toward work, alcohol, risk-taking, and mental health. Weather & Climate Resilience: Houston's rare snow event, infrastructure issues, and the impact of extreme cold. Telepathy & Consciousness: Discussion of The Telepathy Tapes podcast, skepticism vs. belief, scientific and philosophical questions about consciousness, metaphysics, and the nature of reality. Science Fiction & AI: Blade Runner 2049, The Matrix, Star Trek, and their influence on how we think about AI, consciousness, and society. News & Media Consumption: The role of cable news, Twitter, and TikTok in shaping public perception, information density, and generational media habits. Entrepreneurial Opportunities Under Trump 2.0: Speculative investment ideas based on anticipated policy shifts. Personal Growth & Mentorship: Volunteering, teaching, and giving back to the community, including discussions about Minds Matter and mentorship programs. Books Discussed The Master and His Emissary by Iain McGilchrist Amusing Ourselves to Death by Neil Postman The Coddling of the American Mind by Jonathan Haidt Of Boys and Men by Richard Reeves The Martian and Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir Galápagos by Kurt Vonnegut Annihilation (Southern Reach Trilogy) by Jeff VanderMeer Companies Discussed Manplow: Endorsement of a large snow shovel for efficient driveway clearing. TikTok: Discussion about its potential ban and its impact on younger generations. Diageo: Mentioned in the context of alcohol consumption declines and industry challenges. Jensen Huang/NVIDIA: Brief reference in relation to AI and robotics. Trump Coin: Mentioned in the context of speculation and financial opportunities. Chapter Titles with Timestamps "Happy Inauguration Day" (00:00) – Opening banter and Houston's weather chaos. "The Manplow Revolution" (02:47) – Discussion about the oversized snow shovel. "The Telepathy Tapes: Mind-Blowing or Pseudoscience?" (04:06) – Deep dive into the podcast and consciousness theories. "Sci-Fi, AI, and The Matrix" (12:48) – Exploring how science fiction shapes views on AI and the future. "Millennials vs. Zoomers: Who's Got It Right?" (40:04) – A generational comparison on risk, alcohol, and mental health. "Mentorship, Minds Matter, and Giving Back" (1:09:19) – The role of volunteering and its personal impact. "Making Money Off the Grift Economy" (1:05:57) – Investment speculation under the new administration.

Hello my dear show notes readers, Welcome back for another episode advice. This one starts of personal for me as I explain how I've been getting into lifting weights. In the process, life reminded me of the old adage "experience is what you get, when you don't get what you want." In short, I try to be as honest with myself and you as I can about hitting the bit 4-0 and making some important life decisions.  Later, we devolve into our usual banter with a heavy dose of AI talk. Dan and I are both having a blast with Nat Eliason's Course Build Your Own Life Coach. If our convo piqued your interest, you should check it out.  Later, Dan decides to match my energy - if you don't know what I mean, check out the Adam Grant and Charles Duhigg books below - and gets personal on recent challenges facing one of his ecomm businesses.  Y'all, it's simultaneously hard and exciting out there and we get REAL this week.  Cheers, Sean Books Discussed: The Sovereign Individual by James Dale Davidson and William Rees-Mogg Works of Carl Jung Companies Discussed: Bloomberg Amazon Google Apple Walmart Peloton Academy Sports + Outdoors Chapters 00:00 Embracing the Big 4-0 03:53 Winding Down Fig: A Tough Decision 09:55 Lessons Learned from Business Ventures 12:48 Setting New Goals and Exploring AI 25:36 The Evolution of AI and Data Privacy 33:31 Personal Updates and AI Coding Adventures 40:28 Challenges of E-commerce and Tariff Enforcement 48:13 Navigating Tariff Codes and Compliance 54:08 Exploring Global Living Options 59:18 Insights from Carl Jung 01:04:16 The Power of Consciousness and Fate 01:08:11 Reflections on Planning and Control

Hello, Show Notes Readers We find ourselves neck-deep in a discussion about stated versus revealed preferences for the half of the show, as I take us on a trip down memory lane after doing my Christmas shopping. Nostalgia alert! Dan explains his theory on capital flight and we come to the realization that 80s dystopic downtowns were symptoms and not causes of previous preference shifts.  After that, we look into the future as Dan tells us about his experience learning to write code with AI tools. The discussion gets a bit technical, but if you're thinking about how to apply AI in your day-to-day, be sure to listen in for Dan's tips on where to get started.  Thanks for tuning in and we hope you enjoy! Cheers, Sean Highlights include: Why the retail landscape continues to evolve and what that means for the future of malls and city centers. A discussion on downtown revitalization and population density: can we break the boom-and-bust cycle of urban centers? Dan's hands-on experience with AI-powered coding tools and how they're changing the game for developers and non-developers alike. Practical tips for getting started with AI tools like Cursor, Bolt, and more. Companies Discussed Sharper Image Amazon Brookstone SLB (formerly Schlumberger) Microsoft Google Tesla Simon Property Group Chapters 00:00 Holiday Reflections and the Evolution of Gift Shopping 06:44 The Changing Landscape of Malls 10:39 Capital Flight and Urban Revitalization 20:10 The Future of City Centers and Density 26:49 Economic Dynamics in Urban Development 31:48 Shifts in Urban Living Preferences 34:41 The Future of Software Development with AI 41:31 Building Software Solutions for Industry Challenges 47:07 Strategic Opportunities in the Oil and Gas Sector 51:46 Identifying Use Cases in Industries 54:24 Automation and Error Reduction in Business Processes 57:59 The Future of AI and Automation 01:00:37 Comparing AI Tools: ChatGPT vs. Claude 01:04:12 Exploring New Ideas and Recommendations

Hello my dear show notes readers! I've missed you so. We took a little longer than expected break this time, because someone recently turned 40 and hit it a little too hard in the fine city of New Orleans. Have you ever been? If not, you really must go. One night is not enough. Two nights are divine. Three nights are for 30-somethings.  But back to the crux of the matter! This week, we take a look back at some dumb stuff we said about 2024 last January, have a hearty chuckle, and proceed to say some dumb stuff about the coming year. We had a blast and hope you enjoy listening in as we stare down at our big shiny crystal balls.  Hugs and kisses, Old Man Sean Chapters 00:00 Reflections on Predictions for 2024 09:28 Lessons Learned from Past Predictions 12:19 Bold Predictions for 2025 -15:22 The Future of Advertising and Market Behavior -17:56 Labor Market Predictions and Economic Corrections -21:03 Jay Powell Buys Bitcoin? -28:29 Anticipating Scandals in Private Equity -31:50 The DEI Pendulum Continues to Change Direction -34:06 Labor Strikes: Frequency vs. Success -37:28 The Future of SEO and AI Integration -41:05 Revamping Old Apps with AI Technology 48:27 Personal Growth and Life Reflections

Hello dear show notes readers! Resolutions are for wusses! This week we're goal setting!? Yeah, we're not really sure what the difference is either, but we hope you listen-in and help hold us accountable in the year to come.  Here's a summary of how we want to improve ouselve in 2025: Dan's Goals Embrace Radical Acceptance Improve Quality of Presence Focus Do better at being 'off' Punctuation Do things you can tell your grandkids about Do better than pay bills  Enact "strategy days" (check out our episode on the topic) Enjoy my weirdness and embrace goofy Can't save souls in an empty church Add value See Podcast Goals below Aspire to Optimism (link goes to David Deutch on Optimism) Dan's not sure yet, but he's gonna get back to us after clicking that link Sean's Goals Finding Guideposts & Punctuation Exprience one "Top 10 Day" Find 12 flow states Asking better questions - helping others do the same Habits 100 bike rides 50,000 words written Learn how to integrate AI into workflows Create an AI agent to learn how and not be left behind.  Unplugged time Create designated unplugged time and track progress Try a hobby that involves physical creation Anyone got a recommendation for a 3D printer? Podcast Goals 5,000 downloads 10,000 YouTube engagements Set up an email so you can email us. Not that anyone wants or needs more email, but really do we want to hear from you if you have something to say.     

Hello Show Notes Readers! This week, turned into a bit of a bookclub episode. We compare our notes on the start of Sovereign Individual and talk about areas where the authors imaginations hit or missed the mark. The one thing we both agree on, so far: it's a long book. The discussion turns towards the attitudes we've witnessed on the heels of the assassination of Brian Thompson, CEO of United Healthcare. Are the ugly attitudes we see around our healthcare institutions symptoms of a larger scale fragmentation of society envisioned in Sovereign Individual?   Books Recommended Five Decembers by James Kestrel Artemis and The Martian by Andy Weir Jo Nesbo's Harry Hole Series The Winter of our Discontent by John Steinbeck 1Q84 by Haruki Murakami   Chapters 00:00 Synthwave and Futuristic Sounds 04:14 Exploring Literature and Reading Recommendations 08:35 Diving into Non-Fiction: The Sovereign Individual 14:03 The Future of Government and Digital Economy 22:29 Healthcare System Reactions 33:22 Cultural References and Language 38:30 Doomsday Predictions and Societal Fragmentation 40:28 Comparing 'Sovereign Individual' and 'The Fourth Turning' 43:25 Books That Challenge Us