Climate Unf*cked

Lennard de Klerk is the lead author of the Initiative on Greenhouse Gas Accounting of War and has worked on climate change for more than 25 years. Today, his focus is the emissions from war and the military, including the work of calculating the climate cost of the war in Ukraine. In this conversation, I wanted to ask Lennard whether NATO’s push towards 3.5% of GDP on defence can ever sit alongside net zero, and why most military emissions come from peacetime operations rather than active conflict. Lennard breaks down where the roughly 311 million tonnes of CO2 from four years of war in Ukraine came from, including warfare itself, landscape fires, reconstruction and rerouted flights, explains how fossil fuel dependence is also a security weakness, and shares what a post-war rebuild with hemp, recycled steel and low-carbon cement could look like. We also chat about the effort to have Russia held accountable for climate damage through the Council of Europe’s compensation process, what the social cost of carbon really measures, and why Lennard stopped flying within Europe. —— Find Lennard’s work: https://www.linkedin.com/company/warbon/?originalSubdomain=ua Subscribe to the Climate Unf*cked podcast at https://climateunfucked.substack.com/ And connect with me on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rob-coop/ —— 0:00 Does increasing defence spending shatter climate targets? 4:40 The 2 competing worlds of defence and climate 8:14 Why calculate the Ukraine war carbon emissions? 12:35 Military emissions are 5.5% of the global total 15:55 The war in Ukraine as another Finland 17:15 What militaries say when you bring up their emissions 20:53 Cutting fossil fuels is a defence strategy 27:32 Biofuels, hydrogen and the alternative fuel problem 29:36 Militaries have gone quiet on their climate targets 30:16 Where the emissions from the war in Ukraine come from 34:24 Wildfires fuelled by war and climate change 37:00 Rebuilding Ukraine with cement and steel 39:32 The flight detours caused by closed Russian airspace 43:28 Building back better, with hemp and recycled concrete 48:06 Replanting Ukraine’s forests for a hotter future 49:24 Can Russia be held liable for climate damage? 56:18 Can a Russian superyacht fund climate claims? 59:08 What on earth is the social cost of carbon? 1:03:18 Why Lennard stopped flying within Europe 1:06:48 Balancing personal footprint with the huge war emissions 1:10:00 The question Lennard wishes more people would ask

Bob Ward is Policy and Communications Director at the LSE’s Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment who started out as a science reporter at the Daily Telegraph, and one of the few people willing to take on climate sceptics in public, from debating Nigel Farage on GB News to addressing oil and gas executives at International Petroleum Week. In this conversation, Bob explains why he thinks climate has become a culture war that leaves everyone stuck, why many sceptical arguments about the science are really proxies for fears about government regulation or daily life, and why he separates bad faith actors from people who have simply been misled. We get into the Frank Luntz memo, the shift from denial to delay and the rise of the “lukewarmers”, how climate got caught up in the culture war, and why Bob believes dropping the phrase “net zero” would be a mistake. We also cover the “less than 1% of emissions” argument, why the message of sacrifice doesn’t sell, what a warming climate could cost the UK economy, and why the insurance industry is so alarmed. —— Bob’s LSE Grantham Climate Institute (inc. all research, media and policy) https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/profile/bob-ward/ Subscribe to the Climate Unf*cked podcast at https://climateunfucked.substack.com/ And connect with me on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rob-coop/ —— Chapters 0:00 Who is winning the climate culture war? 3:11 Why are culture wars bad? 6:09 Who is the villain? 12:14 Does debating sceptics actually change minds? 14:35 The memo that changed science denial forever 16:31 Should you share a stage with bad faith arguments? 20:06 Being right doesn’t win arguments 25:20 From “it’s not happening” to “just grow wine” 33:41 How the UK caught the US culture war 40:36 Should we stop using the phrase ‘Net Zero’? 44:29 “The UK is less than 1% of emissions” 49:38 Have we really failed to bring the public along? 56:20 Is consuming less the answer? 1:00:49 Is flying worth it? 1:05:39 What climate change could cost the UK economy 1:10:51 Why the insurance industry is sounding the alarm 1:15:12 Why you rarely meet a CEO who denies the science 1:18:35 The question Bob is sick of being asked 1:22:10 What Bob wishes more people would ask him

I had the privilege of hosting 3 incredible guests who each deserve an episode of their own. We tackled the topic of optimism, solutions and how the climate story needs to move on to the part where we’re saving the world, not just saying how f*cked we are. Lucy Siegle is a journalist, broadcaster and author who has reported on climate, nature and the fashion industry's footprint for two decades, including as a reporter on BBC One's The One Show. Angus Hervey is a political economist and the founding editor of Fix The News, the solutions journalism newsletter that goes looking for the progress the headlines usually miss. Solitaire Townsend is the co-founder and Chief Solutionist of Futerra, the sustainability agency, and the author of The Solutionists, a book on how business can fix the future. Together, we each brought a climate solution we’re excited about and discussed them. —— Links Fix The News: https://fixthenews.com/ Futerra: https://www.wearefuterra.com/ Solitaire’s website for books, speaking and more: https://www.solitairetownsend.com/ Lucy’s Substack: https://theweathermakers.substack.com/ —— We also cover: The stat that 50% of under 30s think we're doomed, and what that has done to the youth climate movement Why the climate movement has been stuck at the "inciting incident" of the story for 30 years How Just Stop Oil briefly pushed climate coverage level with mentions of ghosts and cake Why climate scientists are more hopeful than the public, and why recycling is still the solution people name most Angus on why 2026 has been a low wildfire year globally, and why cameras in Western Europe skew our perception Why Angus thinks the biggest climate story is China, from its EV boom to its emissions plateauing How giving indigenous groups land tenure could keep carbon in the ground (only 14% have official tenure, according to Angus) Why fear doesn't motivate most people, and the pioneers, settlers and prospectors model Lucy on Suzanne Simard's forest research and a tourism-funded recovery project with the Hamalco people in British Columbia Restage, a plan to recirculate the props and sets the UK film and theatre industry throws away How writers and filmmakers can weave climate solutions into romance, action and everyday stories The National Emergency Briefing and why it gives people something to do next Why Solitaire and Lucy argue that dismissing personal action is sexist, including the women-led sugar boycotts Angus on why the UK is doing better than most countries on cutting emissions —— 0:00 Why doom does the same job as denial 3:58 Why half of under 30s think we're doomed 6:07 The climate story is stuck in act one 9:29 The fuck doom hats and the waiter who loved one 13:20 Why optimism is a political act 15:10 Ghosts, cake and Just Stop Oil 20:37 Why experts are more hopeful than the public 23:08 Why the world isn't actually on fire 24:50 Climate change is really a China story 27:30 Indigenous land beats locked off parks 29:31 Will good news make people complacent? 32:31 Climate people are the weirdos 34:18 Growing up on coal, now living on solar 37:53 "Is coal bad?" 40:37 Suzanne Simard and the mother tree 42:50 Using tourism money to heal and restore land 47:00 What happens to film sets after the shoot 49:41 On track for five to eight degrees in 1997 51:30 Storytelling is curated emotion, not facts 57:05 Where's the electric Aston Martin in Bond? 59:20 The National Emergency Briefing 1:04:10 Inside the room at the National Emergency Briefing 1:07:33 Why we need to drop the personal action divide 1:12:34 Who benefits when personal action gets dismissed 1:15:40 The UK is doing better than you think

Manjeet Dhakal is Advisor to the Chair of the UN's Least Developed Countries Group and Director of Climate Analytics' South Asia office. He’s been involved with climate negotiations and diplomacy for almost 20 years and now helps the world's most climate-vulnerable nations negotiate international climate policy. He's currently completing a PhD and recently published research on climate attribution in Nepal. Dr Manal Shehabi, an applied development economist and Senior Research Fellow at Oxford's Institute for New Economic Thinking, who also teaches Economics for Public Policy at the Blavatnik School of Government and sits on Oxford's Children and Climate Initiative. On August 26th, 2026, a catastrophic flood devastated Nepal's Langtang Valley. A mass of ice and rock detached from a Himalayan peak at approximately 5,200 metres and triggered a flood that has killed more than 1,300 people and left 5,000+ missing. This conversation walks through what actually happened, why the Himalayas are warming faster than almost anywhere else on Earth, why Nepal producing 0.1% of global emissions makes this a sobering example of climate injustice, and much more. —— Manjeet’s July paper Climate-induced loss and damage in Nepal: attribution analysis and institutional readiness for international support: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/climate/articles/10.3389/fclim.2026.1782991/full Manal Shehabi: https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/people/manal-shehabi —— Subscribe to the Climate Unf*cked podcast at https://climateunfucked.substack.com/ And connect with me on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rob-coop/ —— Chapters 0:00 What Manjeet saw on the ground 5:08 The new kind of disaster we're facing 9:18 Why the Himalayas are called the third pole 10:13 How permafrost collapse triggered the avalanche 12:07 Why 2 billion people depend on Himalayan glaciers, and the immediate human cost 15:32 Nepal's interconnection with China and India 22:07 Why mountain regions warm faster than the rest of the planet 24:38 The science behind ice, rock, and heat absorption 25:30 Climate justice: Nepal's 0.1% of emissions 26:37 Historical vs current emissions: who pays? 28:55 Why adaptation funding isn't enough, and intergenerational injustice 34:33 What a just response to this disaster looks like 35:34 Why the Loss and Damage Fund hasn't responded 40:55 Concessional grants vs debt, and why we can't treat disasters as isolated 44:32 What you can actually do

Holly Alpine spent a decade at Microsoft, co-founding the company's 10,000-strong employee sustainability group and running programs for data center communities. Then she discovered something that made her leave: the company was signing contracts explicitly designed to help fossil fuel companies extract more oil and gas, faster and cheaper, using AI. Now she's leading one of the only campaigns in the world working to expose what she calls the most underestimated climate threat of the AI era. —— The peer reviewed journal article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s44168-026-00411-0 Enabled Emissions campaign website: https://www.enabledemissions.com/ Subscribe to the Climate Unf*cked podcast at https://climateunfucked.substack.com/ And connect with me on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rob-coop/ —— Chapters 0:00 AI’s Climate Impact Isn’t What You Think 2:06 What Holly saw Inside Microsoft 5:13 The Emissions Nobody Is Counting 8:45 Why AI Helps Fossil Fuels Far More Than Renewables 12:16 Winning Sustainability Awards While Helping Exxon Drill More 16:10 What AI Actually Does Inside an Oil Well 19:34 The Undrillable Wells AI Made Viable 24:08 Why Fiduciary Duty Is Corporate Folklore 28:52 The Promises Microsoft Made and Didn't Keep 32:21 How Data Centers Became the Entire Climate Story 36:48 You're Only Looking at One Team's Points 40:33 The Biggest Loophole in Climate Accounting 43:36 The Climate Blind Spot Nobody Noticed for a Decade 47:42 Why Pension Funds Are Starting to Listen 52:00 The Coalition Forming Against AI Expansion 56:32 What Keeps Holly Going and What You Can Do