Fighting with Numbers: UFC Betting Through An Analytical Lens

The model is back this week with three confident plays heading into UFC Vegas 114. Rob breaks down the numbers on four fights — a rematch with a clear blueprint, two aging middleweights swinging for the fences, a sneaky-good co-main that deserves more attention, and a main event where the data says one thing and the odds say something else entirely. Official model bets: Piera Rodriguez, Eryk Anders (live dog), and Gillian Robertson. Plus, why laying -590 on anyone is almost always a mistake — and where the actual value lives in the Emmett/Vallejos main event if you're looking for action. Model sits at 22-10 on the year. The process holds. Let's find the edges.Follow Rob on all social medias: @TheRobbeoAnd check out the written breakdowns over at fightnumbers.substack.comChapters00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC 32602:11 Analyzing the Rematch: Piera Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes05:23 Veteran Clash: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders08:37 Co-Main Event Breakdown: Amanda Lemos vs. Jillian Robertson11:53 Main Event Analysis: Josh Emmett vs. Kevin Vallejos

Rob, aka Bobby Knuckles, shares his deep dive into UFC 326, breaking down how his predictive model hits a 75% success rate — all while navigating the chaos of fight hype and emotional bets. You’ll discover why some fights are perfect for betting and others are better watched with your jaw on the floor. From Max Holloway’s durability to Charles Oliveira’s submission chaos, Rob reveals the numbers that shape this weekend's most intriguing matchups.This isn’t just about predictions — it’s about understanding the sport at a quantum level, turning insights into victory. If you’re tired of relying on hype or wish you had an unfair advantage, this episode is your roadmap to cleaner, smarter betting. Perfect for fight fans, sports bettors, and anyone hungry for the inside scoop on UFC analytics.Rob Moreno, known as Bobby Knuckles, is a UFC betting analyst and data scientist with a proven track record of predicting fight outcomes with precision. His insights are built on years of research, real bets, and a passion for fight sports. Tune in to get smarter, bet better, and enjoy every fight more than ever.Chapters00:00 Welcome Back for UFC 32602:43 Cody Garbrandt vs. Long Zhao: A Declining Champion?05:59 Rodrigues vs. Ferreira: A Rematch of Violence09:10 Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson: Mileage vs. Mileage10:17 Main Event Breakdown: Holloway vs. Oliveira11:08 BMF Breakdown: Max Holloway vs Charles OliveiraResources:Follow Rob on Twitter/X!Subscribe today to the Substack as well!

The model stays hot after a 5–1 week, moving to 20–5 (80%) on the year, but UFC Mexico might be one of the lightest betting cards we’ve seen all season.In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, we break down four key fights from UFC Mexico, headlined by Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh, and explain why discipline matters more than ever on thin-value cards.We dive into:Cristian Quiñonez vs Kris Moutinho (and why the data is distorted)Ailín Pérez vs Macy Chiasson (tight numbers, low confidence)Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green (a shocking spot?)Brandon Moreno vs Lone’er Kavanagh (main event caution flag)This week’s theme: protect the bankroll, don’t force action, and let the edges come to you.As always, the breakdowns are built around xR%, striking differentials, grappling control, and real matchup context — not hype.Follow Rob on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube (@TheRobbeo), read full write-ups on FightNumbers.Substack.com, and catch him occasionally on the First Strike podcast from VSiN (Also available on Youtube).Hot start or not — we bet smart, not loud.Chapters00:00 Introduction and Weekly Update01:25 Preliminary Fights Analysis09:23 Main Event Discussion and Predictions

In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, Rob Moreno previews UFC Houston, discussing the card's matchups, analyzing fighters' statistics, and emphasizing the importance of betting discipline. He breaks down key fights, including the main event between Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez, while addressing the challenges of limited data and the significance of strength of schedule in fight analysis.Chapters00:00 Introduction to UFC Houston Preview02:43 Analyzing Early Fights on the Card08:15 Diving into Key Matchups10:36 Strength of Schedule and Its Impact16:25 Main Event Breakdown: Strickland vs. Hernandez20:41 Final Thoughts

The model stays hot as we break down UFC Vegas 113, coming off a 4–1 week and a 10–3 start to the year (76.9%).With no title fights on the horizon for several weeks, this episode focuses on finding value in matchups, not names. We dive into three key fights on the card, including a potential live underdog, and explain why certain favorites are playable only as props or parlay pieces.Fights covered:Cong Wang vs Eduarda MouraJean Matsumoto vs Farid BasharatMario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira (main event deep dive)We also touch on the importance of discipline during hot streaks, and how to approach betting during this quieter stretch of the UFC calendar.As always, the breakdowns are stat-driven, conversational, and built around xR% and matchup context — not hype.Follow Rob on Twitter/X, Instagram, TikTok, and YouTube (@TheRobbeo), read full breakdowns on FightNumbers.Substack.com, and catch him occasionally on VSiN's UFC Betting podcast, First Strike.New episode out now — let the numbers do the work.Chapters00:00 Introduction and Overview of UFC Vegas 11302:50 Analyzing the Fight: Cong Wang vs. Eduarda Moura06:15 Breakdown of Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat08:54 Main Event Analysis: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira10:19 Betting Strategies and Insights12:10 Conclusion with Model Betting Process

In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno breaks down UFC 325, featuring a smaller card with only six fights modeled. He discusses the importance of patience and discipline in betting, analyzes key matchups including Rafael Faziev vs. Mauricio Ruffy, Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint-Denis, and the main event between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes. The episode emphasizes the value of the betting model and the need for strategic decision-making in a selective betting environment.Follow Bobby on all social media platforms:@TheRobbeoAnd make sure to subscribe here and on YouTube so you never miss an episode!Chapters00:00 Introduction to UFC 325 and Overview of the Card01:24 Analyzing Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy04:51 Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis: A Fight for Violence09:11 Main Event Breakdown: Volkanovski vs Lopes Rematch

In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno dives into UFC 324, analyzing key matchups including Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson, Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas, Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong, and the main event featuring Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett. Utilizing a predictive model, Rob discusses the odds, statistics, and insights that guide his betting strategies, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in sports betting.Follow me on social media!X: @TheRobbeoInstagram: @TheRobbeoTikTok: @TheRobbeoAnd make sure to check out the Substack for even more detailed notes and a full UFC model prediction card. FightNumbers.substack.comChapters00:00 Introduction to UFC 324 and the Podcast03:10 Fight Breakdown: Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson05:52 Fight Breakdown: Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunis08:36 Co-Main Event: Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yedong12:22 Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Patty Pimlet18:42 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

It’s the final UFC event of the year, and we’re closing 2025 with a deep dive into UFC Vegas 112: Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape. After a 6-4 week, the model sits at 176-101-15 (63.54%), locking in a profitable season no matter what happens on Saturday.   In this episode, we break down a few key fights with full data-driven analysis, matchup insights, betting angles, and projected outcomes. Plus: a look back at the 2025 season, the evolution of the model, and what’s coming in 2026.   Follow for more: 🐦 Twitter: @TheRobbeo 📸 Instagram: @TheRobbeo 📱 TikTok: @TheRobbeo 📝 Substack: FightNumbers.substack.com 🎙️ Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the year.

The UFC closes out the PPV era with a monster card at UFC 323, live from T-Mobile Arena — and we’re breaking down all the numbers that matter. Two championship fights headline the final mega-event of 2025: Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van for the flyweight belt, and Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2 for the bantamweight championship. With only two events left in the year and a long six-week offseason ahead, this is a crucial week for bettors, pick’em players, and anyone chasing season-long edges.   This episode features full analytical breakdowns from El Modelo, as the system enters the week 170-97-13 (63.67%). We dig into a few fun fights to wager on — including striking profiles, xR% advantages, grappling efficiency, finishing upside, and all the hidden stats that shape fight outcomes.   Follow me everywhere: Twitter/X: @TheRobbeo Instagram: @TheRobbeo Substack newsletter: FightNumbers.substack.com Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike every Wednesday for more betting breakdowns. Available everywhere you get your podcasts and on YouTube.    One more card left after this — let’s finish the year strong.

UFC Qatar is here — and with only three events left in the year, it’s all about tightening the screws and finding the smartest possible spots. This week’s card is a morning start with a smaller batch of model predictions, but there are some sharp angles to attack, including live underdogs and stylistic matchups the numbers actually like.   In today’s episode, we break down three key fights — Hermansson vs Oralbai, Spivac vs Gaziev, and the main event between Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker — with full statistical context, xR% comparisons, and model probabilities.   I’ll also talk briefly about my year-long pick’em contest grind, what the model saw last week, and how we’re approaching these final three events of the season.   Follow the show & stay connected: • Twitter/X: @TheRobbeo • Instagram & TikTok: @TheRobbeo • Substack: http://FightNumbers.substack.com • Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the week as well   If you enjoy the episode, don’t forget to rate, follow, and share — it really helps the podcast grow.   Let’s make the most of these early-morning edges. Enjoy UFC Qatar!

UFC 322 is one of the deepest cards of the entire year, with two massive title fights — Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev for the welterweight belt, and Valentina Shevchenko vs Weili Zhang for the women’s flyweight championship.   This week, the model is coming off a 5–4 event and now sits at 159-92-12 on the year. With only five UFC events left on the calendar, we’re digging into the smartest angles on a card absolutely loaded with elite matchups.   In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, I break down five key fights using a blend of hard data, matchup nuances, and model projections. Including live underdog opportunities, dangerous favorite spots, and where the numbers diverge from the odds.

The UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Vegas 110 — and Rob’s breaking down the numbers! After a few rough weeks for the model (now at 63.56%), it’s time to bounce back with a stat-driven look at this post-PPV card headlined by Steve Garcia vs David Onama.   Tune in for the usual mix of betting talk, model insights, and fight-week storylines, all in one data-powered episode. Follow Rob on Twitter/X, Instagram, and YouTube: @TheRobbeo, and check out the written breakdowns at FightNumbers.substack.com.   For more UFC coverage, catch Rob every week on VSiN’s “First Strike” alongside Dave Ross, breaking down odds, props, and best bets for fight night.   🎧 Listen. Learn. Bet smarter. VKFLGPrI0PVqjXUrjxdX

The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for a massive double-title event at UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane, and Fighting With Numbers is breaking it all down!   Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) dives deep into the data and betting angles across five key matchups — from Umar Nurmagomedov’s bounce-back fight to the vacant strawweight title clash between Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Plus, full analysis on Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane as the heavyweight division looks to crown its true king.   📊 Model Record: 4-5 last week | 64.35% overall on the year   🎧 Subscribe & Follow: Twitter / Instagram: @TheRobbeo YouTube: http://youtube.com/@TheRobbeo Newsletter: FightNumbers.Substack.com Also catch Rob every week on the First Strike Podcast from VSiN with Dave Ross   If you enjoy the episode, hit like, subscribe, and drop a comment with your favorite bet of the week — let’s keep building this community of data-driven fight nerds!

The Fighting With Numbers podcast is back for UFC Vancouver! And this week, the model digs into a stat-stacked card headlined by Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen.   Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) breaks down the key metrics, betting trends, and model grades for some featured matchups as we look for sharp angles and possible underdogs hiding in the data.   💥 Full breakdowns, xR% comparisons, and betting confidence grades.   📊 Read the full model report at FightNumbers.Substack.com   If you enjoy the episode, subscribe, rate, and drop a comment to support the show — and follow me on X and Instagram @TheRobbeo for fight-week updates.

We’re back in Brazil for UFC Rio, headlined by former lightweight champ Charles Oliveira taking on Mateusz Gamrot in a high-stakes main event. Rob Moreno breaks down all the key fights using the Fighting With Numbers model — including xR% stats, striking metrics, and potential value spots across the card.   The model sits at 65.58%, and while it’s a cautious week after UFC 320, there’s still plenty of data to uncover and underdogs worth watching.   💬 Tune in for a full stats-based breakdown, then check out the written analysis and official picks at FightNumbers.substack.com.   🎧 Catch Rob Moreno every Wednesday on First Strike with Dave Ross over on VSiN, and follow Rob on Twitter & Instagram @TheRobbeo for model updates, fight stats, and live betting notes.   👇 Like, subscribe, and drop a comment if you enjoy the show — it really helps the channel grow!

The light heavyweight title is back on the line as Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira run it back at UFC 320. Bobby Knuckles breaks down the rematch, plus deep dives into Merab Dvalishvili vs Cory Sandhagen, Jiri Prochazka vs Khalil Rountree Jr, and more. Can the champ hold strong, or is another upset brewing? Tune in for stats, storylines, and betting angles from the model.   If you enjoy the show, don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and drop a review — it helps the podcast grow! You can also follow Rob on Twitter and Instagram @TheRobbeo, read weekly fight previews on FightNumbers.substack.com, and catch him every Wednesday on the First Strike podcast over at VSiN.com

The UFC returns to Australia with UFC Perth, headlined by Carlos Ulberg vs Dominick Reyes. After a week off, we’re back in the lab breaking down some key fights: Including Jamie Mullarkey vs Rolando Bedoya, Jake Matthews vs Neil Magny, and the big main event.   The model is steady at 133-70-10 (65%), and this week it’s pointing toward some surprising angles. We’ll dig into the stats, talk xR%, striking numbers, and control rates — and highlight where the lines might not match the math.   Just data-driven fight talk and insights to get you ready for Saturday night in Perth.   Plus, don’t forget to subscribe to the Substack at FightNumbers.substack.com and catch me on First Strike with Dave Ross every Monday and Friday on the VSiN Podcast Network.    Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://FightNumbers.substack.com     Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

Noche UFC is here, headlined by Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva. I break down the key matchups, digs into the stats, and set the stage for a stacked night of fights. From Tatiana Suarez’s return, a clash of styles, every angle gets covered. Tune in for sharp insights, model talk, and a few storylines you won’t want to miss. Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://FightNumbers.substack.com   Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:22 - Tatiana Suarez vs Amanda Lemos 06:11 - Claudio Puelles vs Joaquim Silva 08:10 - Kelvin Gastelum vs Dustin Stoltzfus 10:40 - Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva   Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

After a one-week break, the UFC returns with a morning card from Paris, headlined by Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho in a matchup that could get violent fast. This week on Fighting With Numbers, we’re breaking down a slate full of finish potential, a couple of sharp underdog plays, and the fights worth targeting — and skipping — from a betting perspective. Let’s get back to work and see what the model likes in the City of Light.   Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:47 - Shauna Bannon vs Sam Hughes 05:55 - Oumar Sy vs Brendson Ribeiro 08:48 - Benoit Saint-Denis vs Mauricio Ruffy 11:40 - Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho   Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://FightNumbers.substack.com     Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com

It’s UFC Shanghai, live from the other side of the world and kicking off at 3AM Eastern. The headliner? Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang in a fight that could launch Zhang into the spotlight. With the model rolling at 66% after last week’s 6-2 performance, we break down the stats, storylines, and betting angles across the card — value spots and parlay anchors. This is a card to approach cautiously, and we’ll walk you through the plays worth making before the sun comes up.   SHOW NOTES: Time Stamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:42 - Sumudaerji vs Kevin Borjas 04:17 - Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta 06:57 - Brian Ortega vs Aljamain Sterling 09:27 - Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang   Follow and Subscribe! http://x.com/TheRobbeo http://instagram.com/TheRobbeo http://FightNumbers.substack.com     Podcast notes: Music by Elevate Audio: http://elevate-audio.com