The Spillover

The Trump administration is pursuing a transactional style of U.S. foreign policy, leaving friends and adversaries uncertain about what Washington wants. This week on The Spillover, host Rebecca Patterson and Jim Steinberg, dean of SAIS at Johns Hopkins University, unpack how Washington’s deal-making approach is playing out in Ukraine, Taiwan, AI governance, and the Iran war, and what could replace the U.S.-led global order that has persisted for the past eighty years.   Host:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   James Steinberg, Dean of the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University   Mentioned on the Episode:   Stephen Sestanovich, “Trump’s ‘Diesel Deal’ With Russia Was Just the Start,” CFR.org   Thomas Graham “Trump’s Putin Overtures Deserve Criticism. But Outrage Won’t End the Ukraine War.,” CFR.org   Liana Fix and Daniel Fiott, “Europe’s Defense Dilemma,” CFR.org   Michael Froman, “The Victory of Asymmetry in the Iran War,” CFR.org   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

Brazil’s runoff is a dead heat, but markets are betting that Flávio Bolsonaro, son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, will win and finally rein in the country’s debt. This week on The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and CFR Senior Vice President Shannon O’Neil unpack why voters and investors want different things from Brazil’s leadership, and what this election could signal for Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela, and the region at large.   Host:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Shannon K. O’Neil, Senior Vice President of Studies and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Mentioned on the Episode:   Angela Pinho, “20% say violence is the country's main problem, and 18% cite health, Datafolha points out,” Diario de Comercio   Adam B. Ellick, “Online Gambling and Crushing Debt Are Transforming Brazil,” New York Times   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.    The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections just weeks away, Rebecca Patterson and Veda Partners Cofounder Henrietta Treyz discuss an impending confrontation over the debt ceiling in the lame-duck session. They warn that a 2011-style standoff could unfold if political brinkmanship and a lack of serious effort to stabilize the country’s debt trajectory continue.   Host:   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Henrietta Treyz, Co-Founder and Director of Economic Policy, Veda   Mentioned on the Episode:   “Direct Government Payments to U.S. Farm Producers, 2022–26F,” Economic Research Service USDA   Anton Korinek, Charles I. Jones, Szymon Sacher, Tess Cotter, and Peter McCrory, “Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI,” The Anthropic Institute   Pavan Acharya and Catherine Allen, “Here’s Why Republicans Are Worrying About High Gas Prices Ahead of the Midterms,” Politico   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack what they got right—and wrong—in their forecasts over the course of the year so far, covering the “Fragile Four” economies, OpenAI’s funding crisis, the AI IPO race, the Iran war, and more.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.    The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This week on The Spillover, hosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, to discuss how the Federal Reserve has fallen behind the curve on inflation, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s task forces, and the role of AI in monetary policymaking.   Hosts:   Sebastian Mallaby, Paul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)   Guest:   Adam Posen, President, Peterson Institute for International Economics   Mentioned on the Episode:   Adam S. Posen, “China Still Has What America Needs,” Foreign Affairs   Adam S. Posen, “Strategic Direction for Europe in the New Economic Geography,” Intereconomics   Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.   The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.