The MOST Important Thing

WARNING - This episode should be viewed given the educational content and graphs referred to during the episode. Anyone tells you they "know" what the market is going to do is as dangerous as a one-legged man in an arse-kicking competition. We prefer an intelligent framework based on probabilities, valuation and risk management. The core of this is humility.

Is the traditional 60/40 portfolio still fit for purpose? What should investors look for in a systematic fund manager? And how is AI changing the careers of people working in finance? In Part 2 of The Most Important Thing, Alan O’Sullivan continues his conversation with Dr. Philip Seager, Head of Portfolio Strategy at Capital Fund Management (CFM). Beginning with the 2008 financial crisis, Philip explains why trend-following strategies stood out during a prolonged market downturn and how inve...

Can artificial intelligence outperform traditional fund managers? And how much of successful investing is genuine skill rather than market luck? In Part 1 of The Most Important Thing, Alan O’Sullivan speaks with Dr. Philip Seager, Head of Portfolio Strategy at Capital Fund Management (CFM), about the science behind quantitative investing and what it means for constructing more resilient portfolios. Drawing on his background in experimental particle physics and more than 25 years at CFM, Phili...

In this episode of The Long & Short, Ivan Yates and Dr Alan O’Sullivan revisit the Wall Street Crash of 1929, the 2008 global financial crisis and today’s concerns around AI valuations, defence stocks and changing investment regimes. From speculative bubbles to excessive private debt, they explore why crashes happen, what investors can learn from previous cycles, and whether the old investment playbook still works. Featuring insights from previous conversations with financial historian Ed...

Are Bonds a Buy? This episode explores whether bonds are becoming attractive again amid sticky inflation, rising fiscal concerns, and the AI spending boom. Alan argues that bond markets are pricing in deeper risks, but the best opportunity to buy may come after a significant sell-off in US stocks. Key topics Why Treasury yields have fallen despite hotter-than-expected inflationHow public debt, fiscal deficits, and bond-market volatility may affect equitiesWhy corporate bond yields could be an...