Inside Prediction Markets
Subscribed: 4Played: 76
Subscribe
© Prediction Market Gurus
Description
Every week, join two of the world's sharpest bettors and minds, Henry Kerins and Chris Dierkes, as they discuss everything about betting and prediction markets.
📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays
📈 Market Deep Dives
🎙️ Expert Guests
🧠 Strategy Analysis
This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.
📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays
📈 Market Deep Dives
🎙️ Expert Guests
🧠 Strategy Analysis
This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.
35 Episodes
Reverse
This week, Chris and Henry welcome trader Clay Alter to discuss his move from sportsbooks to live trading on Kalshi and Polymarket US. Clay breaks down his hands-on approach to market making, how he managed first-touchdown orders between plays and why late-game situations remain some of his strongest opportunities. Plus: a $60,000 losing week, building trading tools with AI and why Clay continues to rely on experience rather than a formal pricing model.
This week, Polymarket’s CEO allegedly used company funds to fly private, Matt Downs’ created a game lines analysis on X and we observe flat PM volume week over week. Then, we get into trading politics on prediction markets. We talk all things Nate Silver and go through past elections we’ve traded and how to properly navigate political numbers.
This week, Seth, aka @Soarin22 on X, joins us to share how he went from an actuary to a full-time NBA trader and built a one-man trading operation with roughly $2 million in profits on Kalshi. We unpack his shift from top-down betting to building his own NBA model, why execution matters as much as pricing and how he’s automated 90–95% of his trading system. We also go through his NBA takes from this season and his thoughts on the NFL so far.
This week, we discuss the CFTC’s potential collaboration with the SEC, Novig’s climb to #1 in the App Store’s sports category and prediction markets’ growth as the NFL season unfolds. Then, we get into what bettors actually want: what makes someone choose a sportsbook over a prediction market, how app design shapes that choice and why a simpler experience might matter more than better odds.
This week, @ssigsbee had his first losing month, Kalshi’s allowing margin trading and Novig hit $100 million in a single day! Then, we get into Survivor and Chris’ observations so far. We finish up with our NFL takes from the past few weeks: Deshaun Watson isn’t that bad, Ben Johnson’s not getting enough credit, the Rams are not a top 5 team and JJ McCarthy & Drake Maye markets.
Comments
Download from Google Play
Download from App Store
United States