MacroReal Invest: Real Estate and Investments

In this episode, Zoltan Szelyes, founder of Macro Real Estate sits down with global macro strategist Martin Tixier to unpack the latest geopolitical shocks and their far-reaching impact on financial markets, supply chains, and credit conditions.A "Blowback" is defined as the unintended consequences and unwanted side-effects of a covert operation. It is also the title of Martin's latest market commentary which we discuss here critically. Markets are facing the risks of unintended consequences of US and Israel's special military operation. They discuss the escalating conflict in the Gulf, including attacks involving Iran, and how these events are triggering major disruptions across energy markets—particularly in LNG, jet fuel, and refined products. Martin explains why the damage may already be irreversible in the short term, with infrastructure shutdowns likely to constrain global supply for months.The conversation explores second-order effects such as rising transportation costs, shipping disruptions, and inflationary pressures spreading through industries like agriculture, semiconductors, and construction. Zoltan also outlines three potential macro scenarios—from a short-lived conflict to a prolonged crisis reminiscent of the 1970s secondary oil shock.Shifting to markets, the discussion highlights early warning signs in credit—especially weakness in high-yield bonds and growing risks in private credit. Martin warns of contagion effects, reduced transparency, and parallels to pre-2008 conditions.They also examine winners and losers, noting how Southern Europe’s tourism sector may benefit from shifting travel patterns, while regions like Dubai face mounting uncertainty.The episode concludes with practical investment insights, emphasizing a more defensive strategy: rotating toward investment-grade credit, reducing duration, and preparing for continued volatility in bond markets.

Following the Citrini research we discuss- Impact of AI on software companies- War between software and hardware in AI- Update on Palladium and disruption of the electric vehicles in Europe- GFC vibes and the fallout of private credit. Risks and opportunities for investors

Zoltan Szelyes discusses with Martin Tixier the role of civilized money and heated financial market topic- Geopolitical changes and the impact of asset allocation- The Veblen effect- Is Bitcoin civilized money- Is silver in a bubble? What role can now Palladium play in the portfolios?- Credit Cycle: A rerun of 2007. Where are pockets of risk - France: Is there some hope in light of fiscal excesses?

Zoltan walking through the SREM, the Swiss real estate monthly and discusses the overvaluations vs. the opportunities for Swiss real estate