Markus' Academy

Follow the link for the full summary:https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/ross-levine-on-the-250th-anniversary-of-adam-smiths-wealth-of-nations-a-conversation/Ross Levine is the Booth Derbas Family/Edward Lazear Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and a Research Associate at NBER. Sandra Peart is the Dean of the Jepson School of Leadership Studies & the E. Claiborne Robins Distinguished Professor in Leadership Studies at the University of Richmond.A summary in four bullets:● Smith’s conception of human nature combines a propensity to truck, barter, and exchange with the social desire to be admired and praiseworthy● Admiration, status-seeking, and faction lead individuals to overvalue wealth and social rank relative to virtue and intelligence, distorting our moral sentiments● The invisible hand requires a framework of justice, competition, and well-governed institutions; mercantilist policies, monopolies, and state-sponsored privileges are its central enemies that corrupt markets and entrench power● Smith’s defense of liberty encompassed an opposition to slavery, a critique of empire and a support for educationTimestamps:[03:12] Why do we work so hard?[20:50] Do we admire the wrong people?[27:57] The invisible hand and its enemies[53:30] Liberty, slavery and the American colonies[57:52] Education

Follow the link for the full summary: https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/nick-bloom/On Thursday, February 19, Nick Bloom joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on the impact of AI on US productivity. Nick Bloom is the William Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University, a Senior Fellow of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, and the Co-Director of the Productivity, Innovation and Entrepreneurship program at NBER. A summary in four bullets:● We see an extremely wide range of forecasts for AI’s growth impact—from Dario Amodei (2026), who projects 10–20% annual growth, to Daron Acemoglu (2025), who estimates 0.5% total additional growth over a decade.● Given the uncertainty and the lack of clear historical precedents, managers’ expectations may be our best available data● In their recent working paper, Nicholas Bloom and coauthors (2026) leverage existing central bank surveys to ask 6,000 executives about AI● They document four facts: (1) 70% of firms use AI(2) 75% of executives use AI, with an average 1.5 hours per week(3) AI has had little impact on employment and productivity in the last 3 years(4) AI is expected to double productivity growth over the next 3 yearsTimestamps:[08:41] A new age of productivity growth?[19:05] What is the current data on firm AI use?[24:58] The survey[29:29] Results on firms’ AI use[43:39] Employment effects and employee responses

Follow the link for the full summary: https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/chad-jones-chris-tonetti-on-past-automation-and-future-ai-how-weak-links-tame-the-growth-explosion/On Thursday, February 12, Chad Jones and Chris Tonetti joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on their paper, Past Automation and Future AI: How Weak Links Tame the Growth Explosion. Chad Jones is a Professor of Economics at Stanford University and a research associate of the NBER. Chris Tonetti is an Associate Professor of Economics at Stanford University and a research associate at the NBER. A summary in three bullets:● How much of past economic growth is due to automation? Around half. Jones and Tonetti built a standard task-based model to answer the question, and then simulated the model to speculate about the future of AI● Automation boosts growth by switching from slowly improving humans to rapidly improving machines on an increasing number of tasks. However, it can also create bottlenecks and spread capital thin. TFP growth may slow even as automation advances due to the slow-productivity-growing tasks that will still have to be done by humans● AI may deliver explosive growth, but with a 75-year delay due to the weak links. Humanity may have time to solve its problems around inequality, political economy, and AI’s existential risksTimestamps:[04:19] The basic weak-link model of automation[26:20] How much of economic growth comes from automation?[48:03] The Future Consequences of AI

For the full summary please visit: https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/venkatram-anantha-nageswaran-on-building-strategic-leverage-in-the-emerging-new-world-order-challenges-and-opportunities-for-india/On Thursday, February 5, Venkatram Anantha Nageswaran joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “Building Strategic Leverage in the Emerging New World Order: Challenges and Opportunities for India.” V. Anantha Nageswaran is the Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.A summary in four bullets:● In the episode, Nageswaran presented his vision of India’s growth strategy, included in India’s 2025–2026 Economic Survey, which has been described as a disruptive shift in India’s growth strategy● The strategy is based on the idea of Investment in National Strength, with three pillars: (1) Intelligent import substitution, (2) Strategic resilience, and (3) Strategic indispensability● National reforms in tax, labor, infrastructure, public procurement, state-level deregulation, and R&D support aim to lower input costs, crowd in private investment, and build a Mittelstand-style manufacturing ecosystem● India remains an oasis of macro stability in a turbulent world, with sustainable non-inflationary growth, fiscal prudence, supply-side reforms and investmentsTimestamps:[05:36] India’s manufacturing future[20:51] Designing intelligent import substitution[31:17] A reform agenda for strategic resilience[45:49] Growth in strategic sectors and under global fragility

Follow the link for the full summary:https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/t-clifton-green-on-chatgpts-stock-return-biases/Link to sign up for the webinar series:https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy-old/signup/On Thursday, January 8, T. Clifton Green joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on ChatGPT’s Stock Return Biases. Clifton Green is the John W. McIntyre Professor of Finance at Emory University.A Summary in four bullets:In the talk Green presented his recent paper (Chen et al., 2025), which shows that LLMs exhibit the same behavioral biases documented in humans (optimism, overconfidence, extrapolation, and framing effects), despite demonstrably “knowing” the behavioral finance concepts studiedWhen asked to rank stocks by expected returns, models strongly extrapolate from past returns, with prompt engineering only modestly reducing the biasLLMs are overly optimistic about expected returns, while pessimistic about upside (90th percentile) returnsLLMs are more optimistic in predicting returns when historical information is provided as return charts rather than price chartsTimestamps:[02:42⁠] Literature and overview[22:20⁠] Extrapolation in stock returns and market sentiment[42:43⁠] Optimism in the distribution of stock return forecasts[54:23] Framing effects[59:09] Implications for using LLMs in finance

In this special episode of Markus’ Academy we debut a new format: a conversation with John Maynard Keynes, recreated through an AI model grounded in his collected writings and archival audio.Keynes’ ideas reshaped modern macroeconomics. Here, Markus Brunnermeier asks AI Keynes how his theories have held up over the last century since the publication of his 1930 essay "Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren," especially in the face of artificial intelligence. They discuss the impact of technological progress, resilience, bubbles and more.For a real-life recording of Keynes see: Professor Keynes is Optimistic  We are grateful for feedback from Lord Robert Skidelsky, Harald Hagemann, and Harold James.Script and production by Pablo Balsinde, PhD student at the Stockholm School of Economics.Timestamps:[00:00⁠] Introduction[01:22⁠] Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren[04:22] Alan Turing[06:58] J-Curved Transitions[10:07⁠] Populism[13:06⁠] Jevons' Paradox[16:09] AI Platforms[18:43⁠] Stock Market Bubbles[22:07] The Master Economist[24:48] The Importance of Economics[25:57⁠] ConclusionNote: This is a historically grounded AI simulation for educational purposes, and not a real recording or newly discovered statement by Keynes.

Follow the link for the full summary:https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/philippe-aghion-on-should-we-fear-ai/Link to sign up for the webinar series:⁠⁠⁠https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy-old/signup/⁠⁠On Thursday, December 4, Philippe Aghion joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “Should We Fear AI?” Philippe Aghion is the Kurt Björklund Chaired Professor in Innovation and Growth at INSEAD, a professor at Collège de France and visiting professor at the London School of Economics. Aghion is one of the recipients of the 2025 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for the theory of sustained growth through creative destruction. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.Timestamps:[8:09] New estimates of the impact of AI[28:02] Superstar firms and renewing AI competition policy[33:48] AI and employment[43:43] Conclusion and Q&A

Follow the link for the full summary:https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/john-campbell-and-tarun-ramadorai/Link to sign up for the webinar series:⁠⁠https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy-old/signup/⁠On Monday, October 27, John Campbell and Tarun Ramadorai joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on their book, Fixed: Why Personal Finance is Broken and How to Make It Work for Everyone. Campbell is the Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics at Harvard University. Ramadorai is Professor of Financial Economics at Imperial College London. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.Timestamps:[6:12] The problem[38:45] The specifics: what goes wrong in personal finance[48:02] Solutions: shove, don't just nudge[1:04:49] A new vision: a personal finance “starter kit”

Follow the link for the full summary:https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/alex-imas-and-richard-thaler/Link to sign up for the webinar series:⁠https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy-old/signup/On Thursday, October 9, Alex Imas and Richard Thaler joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on their new book, The Winner’s Curse. Imas is the Roger L. and Rachel M. Goetz Professor of Behavioral Science, Economics and Applied AI at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Thaler is the 2017 recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for his contributions to behavioral economics. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.Timestamps:[⁠0:00⁠] Introduction[⁠3:50⁠] Economists should listen to Kahneman[⁠33:08⁠] Progress in behavioral economics[⁠40:12⁠] Selling fast and buying slow[⁠48:00⁠] The robustness and future of behavioral econ

Link to sign up for the webinar series:⁠https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy-old/signup/On Wednesday, September 10, Lawrence H. Summers joined Markus’ Academy for a lecture. Lawrence H. Summers is the Charles W. Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus of Harvard University and a board member of OpenAI. During the past three decades, he has served in a series of senior policy positions in Washington, D.C., including the 71st Secretary of the Treasury for President Clinton, Director of the National Economic Council for President Obama and Vice President of Development Economics and Chief Economist of the World Bank.Timestamps:[0:00⁠ ] Part 1: Technological Progress[6:55⁠] Solow Paradox or not?[8:20⁠] Labor augmenting vs. savings and the Jevon's Paradox[10:03⁠] Recursive nature due to automation of ideas[17:27⁠] Will the meaning of being human change?[21:10⁠] Human community, social interaction and AI companion[23:42⁠] Designed or spontaneous progress[28:04⁠] Concentration of power[38:14⁠] Distribution of fruit of technical progress and UBI[45:00⁠] Part 2: Populism[47:00⁠] Elites and university politics [53:00⁠] The democratic party in the US[56:08⁠] Part 3: Geopolitics[1:00:06] Can mistakes be undone?[1:04:01⁠] The role of the US dollar[1:10:19⁠] Concluding Part: Lessons for Economists

Follow the link for the full summary: https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/landau2025/Link to sign up for the webinar series:https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy-old/signup/On Thursday, September 4, Jean-Pierre Landau joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “Who is afraid of U.S. Stablecoins?” Landau is an affiliated Professor of Economics at Sciences Po. A former Deputy Governor of the Banque de France, he has held senior roles at the IMF, World Bank and the EBRD.Timestamps:[⁠3:08⁠] Basics of tokenized money[⁠14:45⁠] Can stablecoins become a generalized payment instrument? [⁠32:55⁠] Stablecoins and the stability of private money[⁠54:47⁠] International monetary competition

Follow the link for the full summary: https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/sylvain-chassang-on-keep-cut-commit-an-alternative-path-to-decarbonizing-car-use/Link to sign up for the webinar series: ⁠https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy-old/signup/⁠On Tuesday, August 12, Sylvain Chassang joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “Keep, Cut, Commit: An Alternative Path to Decarbonizing Car Use.” Chassang is a Professor of Economics at Princeton University and a former Member of the French Conseil d’Analyse Economique, which carries out independent public analyses at the behest of the Prime Minister and the Ministry of Economy and Finance.A summary of the proposal:Chassang (2025) proposes a strategy to cut the emissions of the individual transport sector. It relies on other research under the MyCarPlan initiative by the French Conseil d’Analyse Economique and on surveys carried out by UFC-Que Choisir (France’s leading consumer rights group) and BPI France (the French public investment bank)Because replacing the entire fleet can take decades, the strategy focuses on what can be implemented with the existing fleetThe proposal leverages two economic forces: (1) the used car market, where consumers never want to throw away the residual value of their Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) car, and (2) car usage varies widely among driversKeep: If you are in the bottom 30% of drivers by annual mileage, you should keep your ICE car: you are the best possible owner for an ICE carCut: Reduce emissions from the existing fleet at low cost by adopting usage-based insurance, practicing fuel-efficient driving habits, and cutting about one trip out of tenCommit: Make a commitment that the next car will be electric through a dedicated savings planTimestamps:[2:41] The Keep, Cut, Commit Proposal[9:11]⁠ French Car Market[25:04] CO2 and subsidy leakage in the used car market[37:56]⁠ Details on “Keep” and “Cut”[43:50] Details on “Commit”

Follow the link for the full summary: https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/jonathan-haskel-on-ai-and-productivity-a-general-purpose-technology-approach/Link to sign up for the webinar series: https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy-old/signup/On Thursday, June 5, Jonathan Haskel joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “AI and Productivity: A General Purpose Technology Approach.” Jonathan Haskel is Professor of Economics at Imperial Business School and, from 2018 until 2024, he was a member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.A summary in four bullets:In the talk Haskel presented his work as a part of the EUKLEMS-INTANProd project, joint with Filippo Bontadini, Carol Corrado, and Cecilia Jona-LasinioAI's impact on labor productivity can be understood through its role as a general purpose technology and an innovation in the method of inventionA growth accounting framework can be used to study the labor productivity effects of AI. Existing estimates such as Acemoglu (2024) often disregard the capital deepening effects familiar to the growth accounting literature Estimates suggest AI could lead to ~0.7% labor productivity growth per year, driven by TFP growth in AI software/data and intangible business functions, as well as capital deepening in software/data and intangible assetsTimestamps:[0:00] Markus’ introduction[5:01] AI as a “GPT” and an “IMI”[17:01] Modeling general purpose technologies[25:08] Two generations of AI[34:17] New estimates of AI’s impact on labor productivity growth[46:19] Q&A and implications for monetary policy

Follow the link for the full summary: https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/martin-chorzempa-on-geopolitics-of-payments-the-dollar-the-rmb-and-digital-currencies/Link to sign up for the webinar series: https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy/signup/On Wednesday, May 28, Martin Chorzempa joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “Geopolitics of Payments: The Dollar, the RMB, and Digital Currencies.” Chorzempa is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.A summary in four bulletsThe talk addressed 4 questions: (1) What role does the US dollar play in global payments, and how does this reinforce its dominance? (2) Do sanctions risk eroding the dollar’s role? (3) Could the renminbi challenge the dollar? And (4) will digital currencies entrench dollar dominance or enable alternative systems?The US leverages its dominance in the dollar-based financial system to enforce sanctions globally. Countries like Russia and China have sought workarounds, though with limited successStablecoins show more promise than cryptocurrencies or CBDCs, which have seen weak adoption. They are likely to deepen USD dominance and, by broadening access to dollars, offer people worldwide a safe store of valueTechnology matters much less than you might think. The adoption of a payment system is driven by trust and access to infrastructure, while the economics of payments are still driven by market externalities (people use what's cheapest and most liquid) rather than by technological cost savingsTimestamps:[0:00] Markus’ introduction[5:51] Payment plumbing[21:31] Dollar dominance and sanctions[37:02] The RMB and other challengers to the USD[45:41] Digital currencies[57:46] Conclusion and Q&A

Follow the link for the full summary: https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/sanjeev-arora/Link to sign up for the webinar series: https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy/signup/On Thursday, May 22, Sanjeev Arora joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on Parrots No More: How AI Models Learn, Reason, and Self-Improve. Arora is the Charles C. Fitzmorris Professor of Computer Science and the Director of Princeton Language and Intelligence at Princeton University.A summary in three bulletsLLMs don't just memorize—they learn to combine abstract skills in new ways, showing signs of metacognition (“thinking about thinking”)Synthetic data—often generated by smaller models—improves the quality of a model’s training data, while post-training steps (fine-tuning on curated Q&A or reinforcement learning) teach models how to access and apply their internal knowledge more effectivelyBuilding on these ideas, the talk covered six current AI techniques: (1) extrapolation of scaling laws for training, (2) multimodal models, (3) models helping improve future models, (4) distillation, (5) self-improvement loops, and (6) AI agents.Timestamps:[0:00] Markus’ introduction[4:15⁠] Next-word prediction is more powerful than it seems[18:02] Skills and implications for originality[41:27⁠] Metacognition: are LLMs aware of how they are solving tasks?[46:07⁠] Current AI techniques[1:03:34] Peeking 5-7 years ahead

On Thursday, May 1, William Dudley and Carolyn Wilkins joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “The Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Framework Review: A Comprehensive Approach to Improve Robustness.” Dudley is currently a Senior Advisor at the Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies at Princeton University and previously served as the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Wilkins is an external member of the Financial Policy Committee at the Bank of England and a visiting senior research scholar at the Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies at Princeton University.Follow the link for the full summary: https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/william-dudley-and-carolyn-wilkins-on-the-federal-reserve-monetary-policy-framework-review-a-comprehensive-approach-to-improve-robustness/Link to sign up for the webinar series: https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy/signup/A summary in three bullets:The Fed’s 2020 Framework was designed for a low inflation world, and it turned out to be poorly suited for the rapid demand recovery and supply shocks we saw after Covid The new framework should be robust to risks on both sides of the dual mandate. The report has 6 main proposals, including ending flexible average inflation targeting, a more balanced approach to the dual mandate, and developing a comprehensive cost-benefit framework for QE/QT Doing the review well is important for the credibility of the central bank, and credibility is important for independence. Not making any changes would entail not admitting that there were any shortcomings with the prior framework. It is good that central banks know there are lessons to learnTimestamps:[0:00] Markus’ introduction[6:13] Shortcomings of the 2020 Framework[30:10] 6 recommendations from the report[52:18] Additional proposals

⁠On Thursday, April 17, Markus Brunnermeier joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on “US Dollar, Deficits & Safe Assets: Are we Entering a New Global Economic Order?” Markus Brunnermeier is the Director of the Bendheim Center of Finance at Princeton University. Follow the link for the full summary: ⁠https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/markus-brunnermeier/Link to sign up for the webinar series: https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy-old/signup/Key Questions:How can we make sense of recent geopolitical shifts and uncertainty?What role do the dollar and U.S. Treasuries play in the global financial architecture?Is the safe asset status at risk? Would tariffs help? What are the implications for exchange rates and term premia?How should we think about choke points in international trade?Timestamps:[⁠0:00⁠] Geopolitical shifts[⁠12:39⁠] What is a Safe Asset?[⁠23:10⁠] Deficits, Tariffs, and the Exorbitant Privilege[⁠45:33⁠] Trade Chokepoints 101

On Wednesday, April 9, Torsten Slok joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation on "Tariffs and Financial Turbulences." Torsten Slok is a Partner and the Chief Economist at Apollo.For the full summary follow the link: ⁠https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/torsten-slok-on-tariffs-and-financial-turbulences/⁠Link to sign up for the webinar series: ⁠https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy-old/signup/⁠A summary in three bullets:It is correct that the U.S. has lower tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade than many countries. Yet the decline in U.S. manufacturing is not entirely attributable to China, and may be due to long-term trends in productivity, technology, and manufacturing efficiency6 downside risks in the U.S. economy: (1) Consumer and (2) Corporate confidence are deteriorating, (3) Negative tariff impact on earnings, (4) negative impact from retaliation, including from a decline in tourism, (5) (temporary) $10 trillion drop in the S&P 500, (6) DOGE-related layoffsHistorical correlations are breaking down across equity, rates, and credit markets. The last week saw a much smaller sell off in credit markets compared to equity markets, and, in contrast with prior crises, Treasury yields have not come down as stocks have declinedTimestamps:[⁠0:00⁠] Markus’ introduction[⁠8:40⁠] Trade and Tariffs[⁠29:11⁠] Market turmoil dynamics[⁠49:52⁠] Conclusion and the Fed

On Thursday, February 20, Laura Veldkamp joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation. Veldkamp is the Leon G. Cooperman Professor of Finance & Economics at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business. Introductory remarks by Markus Brunnermeier.Follow the link for the full summary: https://bcf.princeton.edu/events/laura-veldkamp/Link to sign up for the webinar series: https://bcf.princeton.edu/markus-academy/signup/A summary in four bullets:Data is one of the most valuable assets in the modern economy, but it is also one of the hardest to measureDrawing from her research and recent book with Isaac Baley, The Data Economy, Veldkamp discussed the reasons and implications of these measurement problems, along with potential solutionsThe value of data is hard to measure because it is exchanged through barter and bundled within traditional transactions. When a customer buys a product with money they also provide data in the process. Firms get paid both with money and dataThe literature has followed three approaches to value data: (1) seeing data as a driver of firm productivity and valuing data through value functions, (2) seeing data as a complementary input, and (3) valuing data based on the present discounted value of the revenues it generatesTimestamps:[08:09] Data barter and bundling[⁠27:17⁠] Data dynamics: feedback loops and depreciation[⁠35:40⁠] 1st approach to measure and value data: value functions[⁠41:39⁠] 2nd approach: data as a complementary input[⁠49:18⁠] 3rd approach: revenues[⁠1:01:10⁠] Conclusions

On Thursday, January 30, Paul Krugman joined Markus’ Academy for a conversation. Paul Krugman is Professor Emeritus at Princeton University, the Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York, and the 2008 recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics.A summary in three bulletsA new view of trade imbalances, exemplified by Pettis and Hogan (2024), has gained traction in policy circles and think tanks, arguing that these imbalances are a distortion due to government-actions, hurt deficit countries, and should be addressed with tariffsThere are several problems with this new view. Trade need not be imbalanced if some countries can attract investment better than others. It is also not clear that imbalances lead to deindustrialization, nor that a large manufacturing sector should be a policy objectiveTariffs are never the solution. We know two things about tariffs: (1) they lead to retaliation and (2) will strengthen the dollar, hurting the U.S.’s exports