The Competent Investor

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Charlie Garcia to the show. Charlie Garcia is Founder of R360, Bestselling Author and a Presidential Advisor. A former U.S. Air Force intelligence officer, hedge fund manager, and writer of the Capital Mischief Substack, Garcia discusses the timing of recent news surrounding NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, the weaponization of intelligence, and how investors should assess information that can materially affect their decisions.Garcia argues that the Jensen Huang story was known to the intelligence community for over a year and was released strategically to disrupt his proximity to the president ahead of a China meeting. He contends that leaks are a standard bureaucratic tool, and that much of what passes for news is timed to benefit specific interests, including short sellers and politically motivated actors. Drawing on his intelligence background, he stresses evaluating source motivation, thinking in hypotheses, and always asking what would prove him wrong. He outlines a contrarian value approach focused on yield and cash flow, buying in thirds, and writing down sell rules in advance.For investors, Garcia sees the greatest long-term AI value in the energy complex, citing rising electricity demand from data centers, constrained refining capacity, and cheap valuations as pension funds avoid the sector. He favors dividend-growing companies, hard assets like gold, silver, and Bitcoin, and simple, rebalanced portfolios over broad diversification. He cautions that diesel inflation has no monetary cure and that geopolitical conflict remains a persistent risk, urging patience, discipline, and a long-term orientation.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction and Guest Background00:01:01 - Jensen Huang Leak and Political Timing00:06:31 - Media Credibility and Information Manipulation00:11:38 - Assessing Intelligence and Anonymous Sources00:13:38 - Contrarian Value Investing Philosophy00:17:31 - Case Study: Buying Energy Stock at Bottom00:22:59 - YPO Trading Competition Experience00:25:20 - Contrarian Versus Stubborn: Buying in Thirds00:28:40 - AI's Greatest Value in Energy Sector00:33:36 - AI Productivity and Digital Employees00:37:33 - Democratic Congress Impact on Energy00:40:40 - Substack Community and Closing RemarksGuest:Charlie Garcia — Founder of R360, Bestselling Author & Presidential AdvisorCharles Patrick “Charlie” Garcia is an American entrepreneur, bestselling author, and public servant recognized for his leadership across military service, governance, finance, and philanthropy.A graduate of the U.S. Air Force Academy and former military intelligence officer, Garcia was appointed a White House Fellow under President Ronald Reagan and advised six U.S. presidential administrations. Notably, he spearheaded historic accountability and integrity reforms as Chairman of the Air Force Academy’s Board of Visitors and served on Florida’s State Board of Education.In business, Garcia founded Sterling Financial Group, rapidly expanding it into an Inc. 500 firm managing billions in assets, and later launched R360, an exclusive global community of strategic wealth creators dedicated to positive social change. He is the author of the international bestseller A Message from Garcia, co-chairs Virgin Unite’s Strategy Committee alongside Sir Richard Branson, and champions educational reform, national security, and purposeful, ethical leadership worldwide.https://www.marketwatch.com/author/charlie-garcia https://x.com/charliepgarcia https://charliepgarcia.substack.com/ 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Danielle DiMartino Booth to the show. Danielle DiMartino Booth is CEO & Chief Strategist for QI Research. She discusses the growing stress in credit markets, the wave of debt issuance tied to the AI trade, and whether the Federal Reserve can or should intervene as economic deterioration spreads beyond the riskiest corners of high yield.DiMartino Booth argues that credit markets are showing clear indigestion, with triple-C spreads gapping wider and bankruptcy activity showing no abatement. She notes that job creation has averaged just 41,000 per month over the past year, a pace never seen in the postwar era outside recession, while more than 200 businesses have closed monthly for six straight months. She contends the AI buildout depends on constant debt issuance, likening it to a hamster on a wheel, and warns that the math behind data center spending and token revenue does not work. She also questions whether Fed Chair Warsh will concede that financial conditions are tight, suggesting he will hold his position absent a major bleed in the S&P 500 or investment grade credit.For investors, DiMartino Booth sees the post-midterm period as a testing ground for whether the current Nasdaq correction sticks or reverses, with historical midterm-year strength offset by risks from a decisive Democratic wave. She expects the Fed to remain reactive rather than proactive, and cautions that any easing cycle would likely arrive only alongside a breaking event, potentially driving rates straight to the zero bound. She highlights the alternative data and balance sheet task forces as the most promising sources of meaningful policy change.Timestamp References:00:00:00 - Introduction and Credit Market Concerns00:01:48 - Fed Liquidity and IPO Market Pressure00:03:02 - Bankruptcy Cycle and Real Economy Deterioration00:05:42 - Weak Job Creation and Recession Signals00:07:20 - Midterm Election Outcomes and Market Impact00:11:01 - AI Debt Issuance and Data Center Economics00:13:06 - Warsh, Financial Conditions, and Fed Task Forces00:16:40 - Forward Guidance Debate and Fed Communication00:18:21 - Fed Rate Policy Effectiveness and Zero Bound Risk00:21:35 - Future of Data, Balance Sheet, and Closing RemarksGuest:Danielle DiMartino Booth — CEO & Chief Strategist for QI ResearchDanielle DiMartino Booth is CEO and Chief Strategist for Quill Intelligence LLC, a research and analytics firm.DiMartino Booth set out to launch a Research Revolution, redefining how market intelligence is conceived and delivered, with the goal of not only guiding portfolio managers but promoting financial literacy. To build QI, she brought together a core team of investing veterans in analyzing the trends and providing critical analysis of what drives the markets.Since its inception, commentary and data from DiMartino Booth's The Daily Feather have appeared in other financial sources such as Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business, Institutional Investor, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Seeking Alpha, TD Ameritrade, TheStreet.com, and more.A global thought leader on monetary policy, economics, and finance, DiMartino Booth founded Quill Intelligence in 2018. She is the author of FED UP: An Insider's Take on Why the Federal Reserve is Bad for America (Portfolio, Feb 2017), a full-time columnist for Bloomberg View, a business speaker, and a commentator frequently featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News, Fox Business News, BNN Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance and other major media outlets.Before Quill, DiMartino Booth spent nine years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, serving as Advisor to President Richard W. Fisher throughout the financial crisis until his retirement in 2015. Her work at the Fed focused on financial stability and the efficacy of unconventional monetary policy.DiMartino Booth began her career in New York at Credit Suisse and Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, where she worked in the fixed income, public equity, and private equity markets. DiMartino Booth earned her BBA as a College of Business Scholar at the University of Texas at San Antonio. She holds an MBA in Finance and International Business from the University of Texas at Austin and an MS in Journalism from Columbia University.X Substack Website YouTube 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Adam Hamilton to the show. Adam Hamilton is Founder of Zeal LLC.com. Hamilton, a gold market specialist with 26 years of professional experience, discusses gold's recent breakdown below $4,000, the dynamics behind the correction, and the outlook for gold and gold mining stocks.Hamilton attributes the breakdown to a combination of factors, including a hawkish tone from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that fueled rate hike expectations and a stronger dollar, as well as a New York Times report about potential joint US-Israel airstrikes on Iran. He describes a "backward war trade" in which geopolitical escalation raises oil prices, which in turn lifts inflation expectations and Fed rate hike odds, boosting the dollar and pressuring gold. Despite this, Hamilton views the selloff as overdone, noting gold's strong seasonal winter rally period from late October to late February and the fact that gold miners remain wildly profitable with trailing P/E ratios of 11 to 13 times earnings, the lowest valuations he has seen in his career.For investors, Hamilton emphasizes that gold allocations among Western investors are vanishingly low at roughly one third of one percent of S&P 500 market capitalization, suggesting significant upside potential if allocations merely rise to one or two percent. He identifies the AI bubble as the biggest risk to stock markets, which could temporarily drag gold down in a panic but would likely be followed by a strong rally. Hamilton remains bullish on gold long-term, viewing current levels as a bottoming process and recommending a minimum five to ten percent gold allocation in prudent portfolios.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Intro: Adam Hamilton on Gold Markets00:00:34 - Gold's Breakdown Below $4,00000:03:26 - Potential Catalyst for Gold Plunge00:06:50 - Anomalous Backward War Trade00:10:29 - France's Debt Crisis Impact00:12:15 - High Rates as Gold Tailwind?00:16:19 - Gold Seasonality and Tax Loss Selling00:18:27 - Gold Miners' Profitability at $4,00000:21:16 - Risk of Diesel Shortages for Miners00:23:28 - Who's Buying at Oversold Levels?00:25:59 - Fed Rate Cuts: What Would Trigger?00:28:06 - Midterm Election Impact on Trump00:30:05 - Biggest Market Risks: AI Bubble00:33:40 - Adam's Products and Contact InfoGuest:Adam Hamilton — Founder of Zeal LLC.comAdam Hamilton founded Zeal LLC in early 2000. He started investing in stocks when he was 12 years old, using money from summer jobs. He grew up fascinated by stock markets, dreaming of making a living in this unique realm where compensation is not limited by time on task like most other professions.After growing up in a small-town banking family in rural North Dakota, Adam left for school at the University of Colorado at Boulder. While watching the markets and trading, he studied finance, accounting, and entrepreneurship. Adam went on to be a Big Six CPA and consultant after graduation, never stopping learning.By early 2000, Adam finally had enough experience and capital to found Zeal at 25 years old. Rather than hide his research and trading work in a hedge fund, Adam wanted to help others thrive in the markets. So he started sharing his now-world-famous market research work through very-affordable newsletters.Customers raved, and many millions of dollars of newsletter sales later Adam was blessed to become a self-made millionaire. He is very thankful to be living his dream, and plans to research, trade, and share wisdom through newsletters for the rest of his life. Adam is a Christian saved by Jesus Christ. He and his wife are greatly blessed with 2 children, and they live in Colorado.https://zealllc.com/ https://zealllc.com/essays.htm 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Trader Ferg to the show. Trader Ferg is Full-time Trader & Author of the Trader Ferg Substack. The discussion centers on emerging markets, energy commodities, and the shifting global order, beginning with Brazil's surprising election result and its implications for investors.Trader Ferg argues that Brazil remains attractive despite the market's sharp selloff, since a divided congress limits extreme policy shifts and the country is well positioned as a commodity giant benefiting from China trade settled in local currencies. He extends this into a broader thesis: the just-in-time globalization model is breaking down, pushing nations toward hoarding, diversification, and resiliency. This favors coal in the near term, renewables and nuclear later, and oil services, where a decade of consolidation and an empty drill ship order book create an air pocket of pricing power. He also highlights Asia's roughly 1.8 trillion dollar surplus, which is increasingly recycled away from US Treasuries into gold, commodities, and emerging markets.For investors, Trader Ferg sees opportunity in bombed-out sectors with consolidated supply, Chinese equities trading at depressed multiples, and emerging market exchange operators and banks positioned for a weaker dollar. Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction and Brazilian Election Surprise00:06:26 - Just-in-Time Breakdown and Volatility as New Norm00:11:02 - Bali Fuel Shortage and Resiliency Lessons00:15:11 - Coal, LNG, and Energy Resiliency Strategies00:20:18 - Europe's Energy Crisis and Germany's Poor Positioning00:29:31 - Asian Surpluses and US Treasury Market Implications00:36:11 - Oil Services and Commodity Investment Themes00:40:51 - China Equities, AI Approach, and Dutch Disease00:53:09 - Portfolio Diversification and Position Sizing00:42:00 - Closing ThoughtsGuest:Trader Ferg — Full-time Trader & Author of the Trader Ferg SubstackTrader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.https://traderferg.substack.com/ https://x.com/trader_ferg 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.

I sat down with Matthew Piepenburg, Partner at Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland and author of Gold Matters, for a conversation that ranged from French riots to the COMEX silver squeeze. What struck me most was his framing of today's gold setup as fundamentally stronger than the 1970s bull market.I asked Matt about the sentiment he encounters as he travels between conferences and clients across continents. His answer was blunt: "The big themes at a 30,000 foot level are geopolitics, of course, and inflation. It's from family offices to a groom, a polo field. I mean, people talking about this everywhere." He described a middle class that has shifted "from the aspirational to the desperation," feeling poorer no matter what they do.When I pressed him on whether the US is in a Wile E. Coyote moment, he didn't hesitate. "America is already over the cliff. We just don't know it yet." But he was quick to add that this isn't the end of America—it's the end of its hegemony. The pattern of debt leading to currency debasement to social unrest is, as he put it, "history in math."On the metals themselves, Matt argued that supply and demand still matter enormously. With only about a billion ounces of gold freely traded against a thousand times larger market cap in stocks and bonds, "only a small move in demand in that very tight supply would crank up the price." He sees the recent silver shakeout—silver losing 35 percent overnight in January—as manipulation, not natural price discovery.His parting advice carried the weight of someone who's seen cycles before: "Your best revenge against a completely mismanaged system is a good life." Save in gold, spend in fiat, and don't wait for a politician to save you.Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction and Global Investor Sentiment00:05:20 - Voting, Politicians, and Self-Reliance00:10:26 - France's Political Turmoil and Debt Crisis00:19:25 - Viewing Markets Through a Gold Lens00:26:09 - America's Wile E. Coyote Moment00:32:30 - Treasury Appointments and Gold Revaluation Speculation00:41:57 - Cantillon Effect and Positioning for Inflation01:24:28 - Closing Thoughts and Final AdviceGuest:Matthew Piepenburg — Partner - Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland, Author - Gold MattersMatthew Piepenburg is a Partner of Von Greyerz and the author of the popular book, "Rigged to Fail". Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.chttps://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerland https://goldswitzerland.com/ https://signalsmatter.com/ https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c 📈 The Competent InvestorMarkets, macro, and the minds that move money.Website — Full episodes, charts, heatmaps, and guest profiles.RSS Feed — Subscribe in any podcast app.Substack — Exclusive deep dives and newsletter.X / Twitter — Real-time market commentary.YouTube — Full video episodes.