At Large with Toby Manhire

Which way will the special votes go, who cast them, and what does the surprisingly low turnout tell us? Lara Greaves, associate professor of politics at Victoria University of Wellington, joins Toby to work through some of the pressing questions that remain after Saturday’s cliffhanger New Zealand election. Also on the list: How much impact did the overhang campaigns have, how might the mechanism be removed, and will the politicians have the stomach for it anyway? Could recounts come into play? And did the enrolment changes amount to “voter suppression”? At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Three decades of parliamentary life is coming to an end for Gerry Brownlee. He joins Toby to revisit a career that has spanned roles including deputy National leader, a range of senior ministerial positions, the Christchurch earthquake recovery and speaker of the house. He also shares his view on the negative campaign National ran in 2026, the overhang and its proponents, and the levels of vitriol in parliament across those years. Plus: working with Bolger, the Christchurch response and those “carping and moaning” remarks, a friendship with Golriz Ghahraman, and his advice for the new intake of MPs.At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Opportunity Party has made history by breaking into parliament. Three years ago, Qiulae Wong couldn’t have fathomed the idea of leading such a project.Her team broke out the champagne at their Eden Park celebration on Saturday night. Less than 48 hours later, it’s getting real. With the numbers still not locked and specials still to count, where is her head at, which options are on the table, and has Christopher Luxon called yet?At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Bridget Mills, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As the campaign hours tick down, a pantheon of the Spinoff’s brightest gather at the roundtable to sum it all up. What were the most memorable moments, the characters, and the words of the campaign? Lyric Waiwiri-Smith, Hayden Donnell, Liam Rātana and Joel MacManus join Toby to revisit the highlights and lowlights, and square up for a Dragons’-Den-esque showdown to convince you which electorate race will be the most exciting on Saturday night. Vote in the comments! Plus: how are we all doing on the mojo-meter, and our predictions on the number of overhang seats for the next parliament. At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The opinion polls are coming thick and fast in the final days of the 2026 NZ election campaign. But when two emerge at the same time delivering markedly different results, should we be sceptical about the story they tell? Murray Campbell of The Research Association of New Zealand joins Toby to discuss the varying methods for collecting opinion data, the processes by which that information is weighted, and what the margin of error can and can’t tell us.Plus: are the media fairly presenting the results, what are the challenges with electorate polls, including Māori seats, what to make of brands like Infrastructure NZ and the Taxpayers’ Union bankrolling polls, and what is the deal with Curia withdrawing from the pollsters’ association?At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Zoe Madden-Smith and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices