Super Tuesdays with Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd

Chuck Todd’s MVP of the midterms is John Roberts. In the first Super Tuesday after Democrats swept the House, the Senate and a majority of governorships, Chuck and Chris Cillizza go straight to superlatives — five best-run campaigns, five worst, five most overrated ideas, five biggest ironies — and the thread through all of them is that Republicans beat themselves. Mid-decade redistricting is Chuck’s worst campaign of the cycle: maps drawn off Trump’s 2024 numbers blew up in South Texas and South Florida, while the Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act helped produce what may be the largest Black midterm turnout on record. Plus the best-run campaign nobody mentioned on election night, the case that polling isn’t broken (paying for polling is), why Trump’s voters showed up and declined to vote Republican, what Stephen Miller replacing Susie Wiles means for the next two years, and a personal account of Miami’s loss at Notre Dame. Timeline: 00:00 The first post-election show, and the five best-run campaigns of the cycle08:00 Ayotte, Colom, Andrews, Ossoff — and why Talarico didn’t make the list14:00 Five worst campaigns: redistricting, Paxton, and Vivek Ramaswamy20:00 Marshall, Platner, and whether any Democrat actually blew it25:00 Overrated ideas: vouchers, third parties, and super PAC money30:00 Polling isn’t broken, and the Roberts court as a turnout machine36:00 Voter ID everywhere, a red undertow, and the Schumer question44:00 Media winners and losers, and Silicon Valley’s failed bet50:00 Why the Miller pick is catastrophic, and the Sun Belt’s takeover56:00 South Bend: the call, Catholics versus Convicts, and the ghosts of 19881:04:00 Notre Dame deserved it, a tribute to a friend’s mother, and 100,000 subsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s Election Day, and Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza arrive at a binary: either Democrats pick up seven Senate seats tonight, or the polling industry has to be blown up and rebuilt. The final Times/Siena polls put Democrats ahead in all seven states that will decide the Senate, with only Iowa and Alaska inside a point, and the final NBC survey has Democrats up seven, independents going Democratic by 21, and Trump at 40 percent approval — his worst of either term. Their real question is whether the political class is underselling it, since every predictive metric points the same way and Chuck thinks the polling error is as likely to break toward Democrats as against them. Plus: a walk back through one deranged cycle, Chuck’s coma test for why Iowa tells the whole story, what a sweep actually means in Washington, why leading with impeachment would be the dumbest available move, and Miami at Notre Dame. The Projection, their election-night stream with Decision Desk HQ, starts at 6 p.m. Eastern. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS Timeline 00:00 Election Day, Chuck’s playlist, and one genuinely crazy midterm cycle08:00 Liberation Day, Virginia as the forecaster, and the chart behind the collapse14:00 The final polls: how the electorate moved, and a pollster’s own warning20:00 Either Democrats pick up seven seats, or the polling industry is dead28:00 Kalshi’s last coin flip, Chris Murphy, and the Iowa coma test34:00 If there’s a wave: tariffs first, impeachment last, and can Jeffries govern?44:00 The Projection at 6 p.m., and Catholics versus CriminalsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One week out, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza go hunting for the counterfactual — the actual data that would tell a Republican this election isn’t what it looks like — and come back with exactly one: a polling error. “That’s a hell of a thing to bank on.” Chuck argues this is the worst version of Trump we’ve ever seen in an election year, a candidate reduced to the Nobel committee and calling Abdul El-Sayed a “jihadist” in Michigan, while his own top economic adviser went on Fox Business to call the affordability crisis a myth eight days out. Plus: why Democrats may run better in red states than blue, how Republicans sat on their money until it was too late to define Talarico, how Ohio got away entirely, what the Ramaswamy ad says about where the line is, and the new Times/Siena 2028 numbers. Plus their election-night announcement with Decision Desk HQ.  18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS   Timeline: 00:00 One week out: what could still change this, and the red-state theory 07:00 The worst version of Trump, and a party that won’t say “affordability” 13:00 Hunting for the counterfactual, and why every Republican ad is nostalgia 19:00 The money came too late: how they let Talarico define Paxton 24:00 Kalshi: Iowa, Maine and Kansas as the three most divided markets 30:00 Where the line is on the Ramaswamy ad, and building a firewall 36:00 Adding states to the 2028 map, and Minnesota’s outlier year 44:00 Times/Siena 2028: Harris at 12, Vance at 33, and a wide-open field 52:00 “All the Projection”: the election-night announcement with Decision Desk HQ 58:00 The World Series, the sports equinox, and a two-Hurricane Heisman problem 1:05:00 Newsphere, one more show on Election Day, and sign-offSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With 14 days left, Chuck Todd & Chris Cillizza make the argument that should scare Republicans most: corruption has climbed to the number two or three issue, and unlike any other message, it hands a lifelong conservative permission to punish his own party without admitting he was ever wrong. The evidence is already in the ad buys — Trump appeared in 47% of Republican broadcast airings in May and 1% in October — even as he opens a nine-stop closing tour in Wichita and calls the polls rigged. Chuck and Chris dig into why his Senate coattails are a myth Republicans keep believing, read the Kalshi market where an Abbott-plus-Talarico split is the likeliest Texas outcome, and unpack the five-day implosion of press secretary Katie Zacharia. Then the hardest question either of them gets: if Democrats actually sweep, what does December look like? Chuck’s answer is paralysis inside both parties, a Schumer who won’t walk away, and a president who’s less a partisan than a dealmaker. Plus Ann Hornaday, Miami at No. 1, and the cheapest World Series ticket in years.  18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS Timeline: 00:00 Fourteen days out and Trump’s closing tour 08:00 Corruption, the permission slip, and ad data that gives the game away 15:00 What Trump says versus what he’d actually do after polls close 21:00 Kalshi: the Texas two-race market, vouchers, and the Beshear fight 29:00 The five-day press secretary and a West Wing built to keep Trump busy 35:00 What December actually looks like if Democrats sweep 43:00 DC statehood, the scorpion and the frog, and the race to replace him 49:00 Election-night tea leaves, and whether Schumer walks away 55:00 Miami–Florida State: the double-overtime finish and No. 1 since 2002 1:01:00 A 12-team playoff, Mensah, and the Arch Manning question 1:07:00 Rays–Brewers, and an election-night announcement comingSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Three weeks out from the midterms, the richest man on earth spent a weekend laundering a fabricated story about a Senate candidate’s mental health into the mainstream — and Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza argue the desperation of it is the tell. They open on the smear campaign against James Talarico in Texas (PolitiFact rated it Pants on Fire; the Ohio facility at the center of it publicly stated he was never a patient), then widen out to what it means that Elon Musk owns both the megaphone and the checkbook — $276 million into the midterms since July. From there: whether Republicans are underestimating the size of this wave, the four-to-seven-point scandal penalty and how it prices Kansas, and a Kalshi-driven walk down the Senate ladder — why 52 seats is the bull probability case, 54 the bull possibility case, and Annie Andrews the most mispriced bet on the board. Plus three stories of an administration behaving like it expects to lose: Kimberly Guilfoyle on the brink in Athens, Hegseth’s plan to livestream a firing-squad execution with eight articles of impeachment waiting for a House that isn’t back until November 9, and DHS agents at Ilhan Omar’s door 22 days before an election.  18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Sign up today to get $25 in bonuses when you trade $25: SUPERTUESDAYS http://kalshi.com/r/SUPERTUESDAYS   Timeline: 00:00 The Talarico smear and how Musk mainstreamed it 06:00 Why Texas is the whole ballgame — and the GOP’s stages of grief 12:00  Musk’s $276 million, the Soros projection, and who should control a megaphone 18:00 Kalshi: Are we underestimating the size of this wave? 22:00 The scandal penalty, candidate quality, and pricing Kansas 30:00 Walking down the Senate ladder: 52, 54, and the most mispriced race 36:00 Kimberly Guilfoyle, Scott Bessent, and monkey see, monkey do 41:00 Hegseth: the man crush, the 2006 rerun, and eight articles waiting 46:00 The televised execution, and whose information ecosystem produces it 50:00 DHS at Ilhan Omar’s door, and a DOJ that changed the protocol 54:00 Brewers-Dodgers, a top-heavy West, and why Milwaukee keeps doing this 1:02:00 Commanders’ tie, Dan Quinn’s hot seat, and hire a clock guySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.