The Prediction Market Show

How do prediction market traders build a view, question the numbers, and decide which contracts to trade?Brian presents an edited election-night conversation featuring Justin Herzig, Jordan Cooper, Squirrel Patrol, and Grayson Nichols from PredictQ’s Midterms Live Sweat Show.The panel discusses polling errors, historical comparisons, changing market prices, and how a candidate’s publicity can create movement in future election markets. They also explore smaller contracts, the challenges of low liquidity, and why a candidate doesn’t necessarily need to win for their market price to rise.Recorded live on election night. Prices and commentary reflect the time of recording.Explore PredictQ for prediction market analysis and tools, and follow The Prediction Market Show for more conversations with traders and analysts.For informational and educational purposes. Trading involves risk.

Your prediction-market research doesn’t have to start with sports.Nando Di Fino of The 7 Oracles joins Brian Hartman to discuss how movie reviews, reality TV, public speeches, and media cycles inform his trading ideas. He walks through a Sarah Jessica Parker mention-market example, explains why prepared speeches differ from press conferences, and shares how he plans an exit before entering a position.Plus: lessons from fantasy sports, using AI to find transcripts, and building content for an audience still discovering prediction markets.The Prediction Market Show, presented by PredictQ.Examples and prices discussed are historical. Trading involves risk of loss.

What happens when a prediction market's underlying data may have been manipulated?Justin Herzig welcomes Caleb Davies, the trader known as Gaetan Dugas, to The Prediction Market Show.After building a successful trading approach around music and movie markets, Gaetan says he spotted suspicious Spotify streaming activity that threatened his positions. The resulting market outcome cost him $40,500, led to a dispute over how the market was resolved, and ultimately became part of his story in a Netflix documentary.In this episode, Justin and Gaetan discuss the investigation, his trading models, Rotten Tomatoes markets, political forecasting, and the mistakes that trip up newer prediction market traders.The conversation also explores a bigger question: What happens when your model is right, but the data used to settle the market can't be trusted?Follow Gaetan on X: https://x.com/GAETANDSubscribe to The Prediction Market Show for weekly interviews with traders and experts across prediction markets.This episode contains the guest's account of suspected manipulation. Opinions are those of the speakers. Not financial advice.

Is the book giving you a fair price on your parlay? Brian Hartman and meteorologist Kevin Roth break down PredictQ’s new parlay/combo pricing tool, the free PredictQ Survivor contest hosted by Splash Sports, and the football weather spots to watch.On this episode of Thursday Night Forecast:🏆 FREE SURVIVOR CONTEST — We discuss the PredictQ contest on Splash Sports and the tool on our website to help you make your picks.📊 PARLAY & COMBO PRICING — What should your parlay actually pay? PredictQ’s new tool calculates the fair price so you can see how the book’s offer stacks up.🌦️ ROTH’S RADAR — Kevin breaks down weather concerns for one college football game and two NFL games.🏈 FANTASY FOOTBALL — Brian highlights a handful of NFL matchups he likes for the week.Find the contest details and explore the tools at https://predictq.marketSubscribe for more Thursday Night Forecast episodes, prediction market tools, and analysis.#PredictQ #NFL #Survivor #PredictionMarkets #FantasyFootball

Who’s really winning the prediction market race—and how should we measure it?Sam Schwartz, founder of The PM Pulse, joins Brian to unpack the numbers behind Kalshi, Polymarket, and the exchanges chasing them. They discuss how combos affect reported trading volume, why better odds don’t always attract customers, and what it takes to build a competitive exchange.Drawing on his experience at ProphetX and his weekly PM Scoreboard analysis, Sam shares how he evaluates industry growth, where traders should focus their attention, and the regulatory developments he’s watching.Follow The Prediction Market Show, presented by PredictQ, for more conversations with the people building and trading prediction markets.Sam Schwartz:https://thepmpulse.comhttps://x.com/samschwartz71PredictQ:https://predictq.markethttps://x.com/PredictQmkt