A Few More Words

Molly Knight and I talked Fernando, World Series vibes and the extraordinary star power of this Yankees-Dodgers matchup — I mean, Shohei, Judge, Soto, Freddie and, of course, MOOKIE … let’s get this thing going already. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

OK, we’re doing our WHY WE LOVE FOOTBALL promotion via video today so, you know, pretty easy to skip if you’d like to skip. There are four days left in the free JoeBlogs offer. Preorder the book from anywhere, including:* Today’s Independent bookstore: Thunder Road Books* Amazon* Barnes & Noble* Bookshop.org* Books-A-Million* TargetAnd then fill out the form; be sure to include the same email address you use for JoeBlogs, and voila—I’ll give you three months free. On to other business!When Is a Slump a Slump?You probably know that Aaron Judge has not hit a home run since banging two of them on Aug. 25 against the Rockies. That’s 16 games ago, and over those 16 games, he’s hitting .207/.352/.359 and the Yankees are exactly .500 and have lost series to the Rangers, Cardinals and Nationals.The sane reaction to this is: Sure, OK, every hitter slumps. Heck, the first 27 games of this season, Judge hit just .178 with four home runs, and he looked pretty helpless. He then went on a 102-game run for the ages: He hit .377/.506/.944 with 47 home runs, 109 RBIs and 86 walks. Considering how the game has changed, that’s even BETTER than Barry Bonds in his prime. There’s nothing to see here. He’ll probably hit four homers tonight.Thing is… this is officially the longest homerless streak of Judge’s career. He had a 15-game homerless streak in 2017, his rookie season, and he had a couple of 14-game homerless streaks in 2018 and 2019. So it’s not exactly out of character… but it is a little bit longer. And look, with Judge, he’s 6-foot-7 and close to 300 pounds, he’s 32 years old, he’s playing centerfield most days, you do have to wonder if he’s a little bit worn out. The Yankees have not given him a day off since June 19 (though they do occasionally DH him). It’s never good to overreact—Judge has hit the ball pretty hard at times during this slump and, like I say, he might hit four home runs tonight. But, look, Yankees fans are well aware that he has not performed well in his last three postseasons—he’s hitting .143 with no doubles and five home runs in 77 plate appearances—and while the Yankees obviously want to win the division and get the bye (they’re now two games up over the slumping Orioles), what they need in October is a healthy and locked-in Aaron Judge.Just a reminder that JoeBlogs is a reader-supported newsletter, and I’d love and appreciate your support. And, of course, you can also like and share these posts with friends. That’s super-helpful, too.The Gift that Keeps on GivingIt looks like the woman who is suing Deshaun Watson, alleging that he sexually assaulted her during a date in 2020, will meet with the NFL in the next couple of weeks.“I’ve personally never had confidence in the NFL’s disciplinary process,” her lawyer, Tony Buzbee, told ESPN, “but my client has chosen to engage in it.”Watson, through his attorney, has denied the allegations, denied even knowing about it, even though Buzbee’s team asserts that they have been trying to privately settle this lawsuit for 10 months. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski says Watson will definitely start on Sunday against Jacksonville, and that the 27th sexual misconduct complaint against Watson will not distract him or the team. “We concern ourselves with our opponent,” our guy Stefanski said.Gotcha.Pitch Values!I thought it would be fun to use Baseball Savant to look at the very best hitters in baseball against every pitch. So, here we go!Fastballs* Aaron Judge, .511 wOBA* Juan Soto, .488 wOBA* Joc Pederson, .469 wOBA* Mark Vientos, .438 wOBA* Brent Rooker, .437 wOBANot too many surprises here—you don’t want to throw fastballs to the heart of the Yankees lineup, that’s for sure. I actually started this little section because I was noticing the way that Rooker DESTROYS fastballs. He’s doing it for Oakland, so almost nobody’s noticing, but Rooker is hitting .298/.370/.580 with 36 home runs this year. There are a bunch of teams all around baseball kicking themselves for not picking this guy up.Also, let’s give it up for the Mets’ Mark Vientos, who is our nominee for the 2024 Pedro Cerrano Award. Straight ball, he hit it very much—slugging .652 on fastballs and .600 on off-speed stuff. Curveballs, though, bats are afraid. He’s hitting .176 and slugging .359 on the curves. Because Baseball Savant is so awesome, you can actually break it down even further. * Juan Soto (.507 wOBA) is the best in baseball against four-seam fastballs.* Willson Contreras (.553 wOBA) is actually the best against sinking, two-seam fastballs, though Judge isn’t far behind (and has seen a lot more two-seamers).* Joc Pederson (.616 wOBA) unloads on cutters.Offspeed* Yordan Alvarez, .453 wOBA* Aaron Judge, .453 wOBA* Shohei Ohtani, .450 wOBA* Alec Burleson, .439 wOBA* Ezequiel Tovar, .411 wOBAYou’re just not going to fool Yordan. I think that’s his superpower. Sure, he’ll unload on pretty much everything, but he’s just so absurdly balanced at the plate that he can be looking fastball and instantly adjust and blast your offspeed offering to the moon.Here’s the breakdown of the offspeed pitches:* Kyle Tucker is the best against changeups (.599 wOBA).* You’re not going to want to throw split-fingered fastballs to Bobby Witt Jr. (.585 wOBA). The top four against splitters are Witt, Judge, Shohei and Yordan.* Statcast has a special category for forkballs and screwballs, but they’re thrown so rarely that it’s barely worth mentioning. Brandon Marsh has somehow faced five screwballs this year (he hasn’t put any of them in play) and four forkballs (he crunched one).Curveballs* William Contreras, .508 wOBA* Gunnar Henderson, .499 wOBA* Jesse Winker, .444 wOBA* José Ramirez, .443 wOBA* Corey Seager, .438 wOBAShohei Ohtani is next after the top five and Aaron Judge is eighth, so don’t think that they’re slugs against curves. José Ramirez is one of the best curveball hitters in baseball and has been for a long time. He’s been pounding curveballs more or less every year since he came up. And yet, because he’s so good against the fastball, pitchers still throw him a higher percentage of curves than they do most of the other top hitters. He’s just a pick-your-poison kind of hitter.Sliders* Christian Yelich, .472 wOBA* Cal Raleigh, .452 wOBA* Vladimir Guerrero .444 wOBA* Gunnar Henderson, .432 wOBA* Bobby Witt Jr., .421 wOBAOnce again, Ohtani and Judge are in the top 10—there’s simply no way to pitch to those guys. But pitchers might want to throw a few more sliders to Juan Soto. He’s hitting just .171 against sliders… but there’s a good reason for that. He almost never swings at one. Soto’s ability to recognize pitches is so otherworldly that when he sees a slider coming, he just spits on it. If the slider somehow ends up being called a strike, he’s OK with that—tip your cap to a great pitch. But he’s not going to get himself out going out of the zone. That’s how you average 132 walks a year over four seasons.**Soto has led the league in walks in each of the last three seasons, but this year he’s in a battle—at the moment his 118 walks is one behind his teammate Judge.“And When You Speak of Me, Speak Well.”Are you following this wild story revolving around Twins prospect Derek Bender? He was Minnesota’s sixth-round pick out of Coastal Carolina this year, and, apparently, while playing for Fort Myers in the second game of a doubleheader last Friday, he told multiple hitters on the Lakeland Flying Tigers what pitches starter Ross Dunn would be throwing.After the game, the Lakeland coaches alerted the Fort Myers staff. I’m actually surprised that the home plate umpire didn’t say anything, but, anyway, Bender was benched for the final two games of the year, and the Twins released him on Thursday.As I write this, nobody has reported with any conviction what Bender’s motivations were. The best guess so far doesn’t relate to gambling, but instead suggests that he just wanted the season to end. Fort Myers was in position to go to the playoffs, and I’ve seen some reporting that Bender was homesick. They were comfortably up in their division but then lost a few games in a row and the game in question was pivotal to Fort Myers or Lakeland making the postseason. Bender gave up what pitches were coming. Lakeland won the game 6-0.Obviously, the first thing any of us thought of when we heard this story was the scene where Crash Davis gets ticked off at Nuke Laloosh for shaking him off.Crash: Throwing a two-hit shutout, and he’s shaking me off, can you believe that [bleep]? Charlie, here comes the deuce, and when you speak of me, speak well.[Nuke looks in for the sign].Crash: Nah, nah, serve it up.Nuke: Yeah.[Nuke throws the curve. Charlie blasts it for a home run to rightfield. Crash walks to the mound.]Nuke: You told him I was going to throw a deuce, right?Crash: Yep. Man, that ball got outta here in a hurry. Anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don’t you think?I guess the “Bull Durham” version is funnier. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

Why We Love Football comes out in a month! And I just got my hardcover copy. Of course, I think it’s beautiful.Sure, obviously, I’d love if you preorder. You can do so at:* Amazon* Barnes & Noble (also a signed edition)* Books-A-Million* Bookshop.org* Hudson Booksellers* Target* Walmart* Or best, of all, your local bookstore.But mostly, today, I just wanted to share my excitement with you. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

Hi everybody!So, Molly Knight and I had a little spring training talk! I don’t even remember all the stuff we talked about, I know we talked some Dodgers, some Orioles, some free agents … but, whatever, it’s always a blast to chat baseball with Molly. We’ll try to do a couple of more of these during spring training. If you have questions, leave them in the comments and we’ll try to get to them.And it goes without saying that you should be subscribed to Molly’s newsletter. It’s great on all topics, but particularly on the Dodgers, and that team is going to be utterly fascinating all year long. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

Well, we’re a little more than a month into the season, so Molly Knight (check out her awesome Substack) and I go all around the league to talk about:* The goofy things happening in St. Louis* The Dodgers’ paternity leave parade* The pure awesomeness of Ronald Acuña* The struggles of Juan Soto (though he went 4-for-4 on Tuesday!)* The hope that that the Pirates can somehow keep defying gravity* The more realistic hope that the Orioles can keep defying gravityAnd much more! Check it out. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

Molly Knight and I are back — talking rule changes, talking Andrew Painter, talking Manny Machado, just talking ball.As always, I cannot more strongly recommend signing up for Molly’s Substack The Long Game, where she talks about baseball, creativity and mental health … and plenty of other things as well. She’s the best. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

Joe and Molly are talking World Series again with the wonderful Ellen Adair as we head into Game 6 of the World Series. We talk about what went wrong for the Phillies in Games 4 and 5, how they can turn it around in Game 6, how important it is that they get something out of pitcher Zack Wheeler, and what sort of chaos to expect if the series goes to seven games. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

OK, Molly Knight and I are back talking some baseball — and this time we are joined but the incredibly talented and altogether delightful Ellen Adair in the moments before she headed out to her first ever live Phillies World Series game. We’re talking about Brandon Marsh’s hair, we’re talking about Rob Thompson’s mojo, we’re talking about whether Game 1 was more exciting for Ellen than her wedding. Fun! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

Joined by Molly Knight as we talk a little bit about the playoffs, what the heck is wrong with Cody Bellinger, how good a hitter Yordan Alvarez is and whether or not all the good players are on the West Coast now. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

Molly Knight has had a rough last few weeks dealing with COVID and various things that have gone along with it. But she is fighting back, and in the latest episode, Joe and Molly talk about Fernando Tatis, Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers, the Astros and what the real home run record should be. It goes without saying that you should sign up for Molly’s substack immediately. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

Let me tell you what a trooper Molly Knight is. She has been deathly ill the last couple of weeks dealing with Covid. Like SUPER sick — can’t get out of bed sick.But she texted me after Vin Scully passed away and said we HAD to do a podcast. So we recruited Mike Schur and talked a whole lot about Vin Scully … and the Dodgers … and the Juan Soto trade … and the sad existence of the Angels … and how much better peanut M&Ms are than regular M&Ms … and so much more!Shortly after we did this, Molly had to check into a hospital for severe dehydration.She’s much better now. But I gotta tell you, that’s the sort of Kellen Winslow commitment you get from Molly Knight. Sign up for her Substack, like, right now! This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

This is fun — Molly Knight and I talk about our five “favorite” baseball stories of the year so far. Only they aren’t really our favorites since we HAD to talk about the Yankees. I mean, the Yankees are overshadowing everything else in baseball so far.So we do talk about the Yankees … and we also talk about some of our favorite stuff like Byron Buxton, the Joc Pederson-Tommy Pham thing that never ends, the Phillies’ and Braves’ winning streaks, etc. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

If you haven’t gotten enough baseball preview stuff here the last couple of weeks, Molly Knight and I talked some baseball, why the Dodgers didn’t bring back Kenley, how much magic the Giants lose without Buster, how much we love the Blue Jays infield and so on.Please check out Molly’s Substack “The Long Game” because it’s fantastic. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

Hey, hey, talking a little Baseball Hall of Fame with Bob Costas. I don’t think there’s anything else I can really add to that … hope you enjoy.While I have you, many of you have noticed a bit of a rough PosCast transition with the move to Meadowlark Media — this is particularly true on Apple PodCasts and Stitcher. I believe much smarter people than me are working on it, but best I can tell, this is the best thing I can tell you.THIS IS THE LINK for the PosCast on Apple Podcasts.I believe that link is working, it has the right artwork (how about Mike and me as bobbleheads!) and it has most of the shows on it. Unfortunately, it does not have a lot of the comments or an archive of many older shows. I can tell you we are working on it.Meanwhile, I must admit, I’m still figuring out the link for this show. It seems to be populating in a couple of different places — again, probably my fault — so I’ll get to the bottom of it as soon as I can. There’s a good chance, though, that the old PosCast you are subscribing to will get these JoeBlogs shows.Sorry if all of that is confusing — I’m pretty confused myself.But either way, Bob Costas on baseball and the Hall of Fame is always worth it. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

Been trying to get this podcasting this worked out now that the PosCast is with the goons over at Meadowlark media. Last week, this bonus JoeBlog podcast somehow got mixed up with the PosCast, it was mayhem, hopefully we got things worked out.This week, the magnificent Molly Knight — sign up for her Substack! — and I talk about baseball lockout, how optimistic we are about the season going on (spoiler: Molly is VERY optimistic) and whether or not Trevor Bauer will ever pitch for the Dodgers again.Hope you enjoy. And I’m still working on getting this podcast on Apple, Spotify and all the rest. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

As a little bonus, the great Molly Knight — and if you haven’t signed up for her Substack The Long Game yet, well, frankly, I’m not sure what you’re waiting for — and I will do the occasional podcasts, talk about whatever is going on in baseball.In this episode of Molly and Joe, we talk some Hall of Fame … and we talk a bit about our friend Ken Rosenthal and his alleged firing over at MLB Network. Let me know in the comments if you like these little audio interludes. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

Joe and Mike break down the World Series point by point, delving deep into each team’s strengths, weaknesses and optimal strategies … or maybe they just talk about how Atlanta should be called the Hammers and how large Yordan Álvarez is. They also break down the different types of injuries in the NFL and deal with the latest baseball emergency — the looming return of Tony La Russa. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

Joe and Mike get out all their Yankees frustrations as Rolling Stone critic Alan Sepinwall returns to the PosCast after his long suspension. Alan breaks down the top five television characters he would like to have serve him food at a ballgame. Joe and Mike also announce the first PosCast charity partner — the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum in Kansas City — and talk about the museum with President Bob Kendrick. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

Joe and Mike sit in the hallowed Grandstand Theater at the Baseball Hall of Fame and talk about the obvious subjects — fruit, the Cleveland Browns and the New York Times Spelling Bee — as the PosCast makes its debut on Meadowlark Media. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com

In a special episode of the PosCast, we offer a recorded conversation between Joe and the legendary Bill James from Unity Temple on the Plaza in Kansas City. The conversation was set up by Rainy Day Book to kick off Joe’s Baseball 100 book tour.Also: Joe and Mike are going to the Hall of Fame on Saturday, October 9! Joe will be doing a Baseball 100 book event at 11 a.m., and then Joe and Mike will be doing a PosCast in front of an audience in the Grandstand Theater at 1:30 p.m. All museum guests will be welcome. More information to come. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit joeposnanski.substack.com