#554: The U.S. jobs market hit a surprising speed bump in October, adding just 12,000 new jobs — way below the expected 100,000.
A mix of natural disasters and labor unrest explains the slump. Recent hurricanes in the Southeast wiped out somewhere between 40,000 to 70,000 jobs, while strikes at Boeing and other companies added to the slowdown. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve looks ready to cut interest rates next week by 0.25 percent.
Meanwhile, gold is having its biggest moment since 1979, but not for reasons you might expect. Central banks, especially in China and India, are loading up on physical gold like never before. Poland's central bank has grabbed 167 tons of gold and wants to keep 20 percent of its reserves in gold — a move that hints at banks preparing for possible global shake-ups.
Remember when I-Bonds were the hot ticket in 2022, paying out 9.6 percent? Those glory days are gone. The new rate has dropped to 3.1 percent, making your standard high-yield savings account look pretty good in comparison.
In the stock market, it's all about the "Magnificent Seven" — Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla. These tech giants account for 62 percent of all S&P 500 gains over the past year. The other 493 companies aren't doing too shabby either, with profits expected to grow 13 percent next year.
As for the upcoming election, both presidential candidates' economic plans would push the federal deficit higher. The Wharton School of Business says Trump's proposals would add $5.8 trillion to the deficit over 10 years, while Harris's would add $1.2 trillion. There's also talk about tariffs that could spark inflation and maybe even kick off a global trade war.
Here's the kicker: during the 2016 election, a 24-year-old Sam Bankman-Fried correctly predicted the outcome before anyone else and made $300 million in a single night trading on that information. But by morning, the markets had swung so wildly that he'd lost $600 million.
The lesson? Even if you guess the election right, predicting how markets will react is a whole different ball game — one that you should avoid. Think long-term, buy-and-hold.
Timestamps:
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3:15 October jobs report falls short: only 12,000 new jobs added
7:45 Gold prices surge to 45-year high
11:30 Central banks lead global gold buying spree
16:20 The end of the gold standard
20:45 I-Bond rates plummet from 9.6 to 3.1 percent
24:03 The Magnificent 7 create most S&P 500 gains
28:58 US deficit hits 6 percent, tops G7 countries
33:31 Inflation risks and tariff concerns ahead of election
40:10 Why you shouldn't trade the upcoming election
Resources Mentioned
Wharton’s Trump Campaign Economic Analysis:
https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2024/8/26/trump-campaign-policy-proposals-2024
Wharton’s Harris Campaign Economic Analysis:
https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2024/8/26/harris-campaign-policy-proposals-2024
The Economist, Editorial Board Endorsement:
https://www.economist.com/in-brief/2024/10/31/why-the-economist-endorses-kamala-harris
Bloomberg Endorsement:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-10-31/michael-bloomberg-why-i-m-voting-for-kamala-harris
The Financial Times endorsement, which is unfortunately behind a paywall:
https://www.ft.com/content/3db1db35-f536-4efc-b463-a1fc98a785b0
For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode554
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This guest is insufferable. Paula is patient and asks the right questions, but the guest can't respond with any nuance. This attitude turns me off crypto even more.
Small world. I interviewed for that same job he had back in 2010 in Iowa and I didn't even get it. 😂
Great interview
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no offense to your cohost, but I'd love a podcast with just Paula. it's just that her style resonates more with me.
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Hi Paula, love the show and I look forward to the new episodes. I know you generally try to be really positive answering the questions, but I was bothered a little with the one where the woman from Florida who wants to retire at age 60 and is currently 44 with no retirement savings. I think you and Joe did a good job of trying to keep her hopes up, but it seemed the bottom line for her was she just may not be able to retire when she wants to. She said she already had a debt to income ratio of 45 pct and continues to add to her debt and has no emergency fund. That combined with other expenses and her income of 112k I bet she would have a hard time saving even 10k a year for retirement. And even if she could do it, that amount over 16 years at 7pct return would yield less than $300k. Hardly a nest egg. I know you mentioned that she didn't say in her question if she would be working part time when she retires or not, but sometimes people just need the hard truth and I don't think she got
Love you Paula!
10:54 Are you going to die young and wealthy, or old and broke? As if those are the only two choices! Who is young and wealthy? You cannot have your cake and eat it too, unless you are extremely lucky AND diligent.
Thanks, it's actually useful! I can tell you that I've been planning of getting into this field for a while, and I've already installed kitchen and bathroom cabinets from https://kitchensearch.com/ in order to increase the price of my house, and I feel like after a while, I'll decide to sell my house.
Thanks so much for answering my question! -Eve
Another one
The global gambling industry is becoming more and more cryptocurrency-friendly, I found here https://dailyiowan.com/2021/10/18/top-3-best-crypto-betting-sites-players-pick-in-2021/ the best options for my leisure
Understand your objectives > Narrow down your strategies to achieve these > Apply the right tactics. I appreciate how you guys were able to break this down following Jordan's question. #FinancialWisdom 🤓
What a loon. Paula trying to add nuance while this guy is one track.
Awesome episode! Thanks to both of you for breaking everything down so clearly!
Love Suze,she always tells it like it is.
You can do monte carlo simulations on Vanguard's website.
Can't download it using beyondpod. It keeps failing!
I disagree with the advice to Andy. I believe these times are different and our monetary system is changing. I would encourage people to educate themselves on money and currency. I would hate to see Andy and his children's futures destroyed due to lack of education on REAL money.