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Welcome to our daily podcast featuring the day's top news commentary and technical recommendations delivered to you before the opening bells of the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX).Alongside our morning podcasts, we will be publishing a collection of episodes presenting indepth analysis and insights on EGX's equities, all brought to you by Al Ahly Pharos.
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Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2024-05-0103:50

Banks' net foreign assets position improved significantly by c.78% from a net liability position of USD13.2 billion in February to a net liability position of USD2.8 billion in March.Finance Minister now expects the country’s primary surplus to come in at 5.75% by the end of the current fiscal year.China’s state-owned Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Company has begun construction on a USD146 million ductile iron pipe factory in the TEDA industrial park, according to an SCZone statement. The Ministry of Communications aims to increase digital exports by 30% by the end of this year to exceed USD8 billion.Egypt aims to increase industrial investments by about 10% during 2024 to reach at least USD3.6 billion.The General Authority of the Suez Canal Economic Zone signed with the Thai company Hi-Tech a contract granting a usufruct for an area of 64k sqm in the Qantara West area to build a sportswear factory with investments amounting to USD20 million.Amr El-Kady, CEO of the Tourism Promotion Authority, revealed its intention to launch a major marketing campaign to promote Egyptian tourism in 12 to 14 markets in May.Banque du Caire will receive a line of financing worth USD25 million from the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation and the Saudi Export-Import Bank to help Saudi SMEs expand their presence in Egypt and encourage non-oil exports to Egypt.SKPC released 1Q24 unaudited financial indicators. Net profit grew 7% YoY and declined by 13% QoQ to EGP559 million in 1Q24. SKPC is currently trading at 2024e PE of 6.6x and EV/EBITDA of 4.7x.SKPC's BoD also approved stock dividends of 1:5, increasing the company's issued and paid-in capital from EGP1.5 billion to EGP1.8 billion distributed over 907 million shares and financed from 2023 profits.SKPC is distributing cash dividends of EGP1.25/share distributed over two tranches. The first tranche worth EGP0.75/share will be distributed on 29 May 2024, while the second tranche worth EGP0.50/share will be distributed on 25 September 2024. the dividend will be distributed for shareholders on record on 26 May 2024. Implied dividend yield is 4.6%.EGAL reported indicators for 3Q23/24 with net profit after tax coming in at EGP1.8 billion, almost flat QoQ and 19% lower YoY. Meanwhile, 9M23/24 bottom line surged to EGP5.2 billion (+33% YoY). EGAL is currently trading at FY23/24e P/E of 4.6x and EV/EBITDA of 3.8x.Egypt's total iron and steel exports dropped 8% YoY to USD478 million in 1Q24.HELI (FV: EGP18.84, OW) signed a contract with Middle East for Real Estate Development and Investment to co-develop an 894 feddan land plot in New Heliopolis, with a minimum guarantee to HELI of EGP23.8 billion. This project is in addition to the 865 feddan project in New Heliopolis that is also to be co-developed by Middle East for Real Estate Development and Investment.AMIC released its numbers for March 2024, showing a drop in PC sales by 53% MoM and 41% YoY to record 2.8k units, bringing PC sales to 13.4k units in 1Q24 (+9% YoY).COMI intends to borrow USD50 million during 2H24 from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development with the aim of financing finance green projects in Egypt.Businessman Ahmed Tarek is reportedly studying investing USD100 million in the healthcare sector over the coming three years and is considering acquiring a 20% stake in an EGX-listed pharmaceutical company, according to local press.
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2024-05-0101:24

Market Overview Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2024-04-3003:47

The CBE will start handing out letters of credit (LCs) to importers of non-essential goods at the start of June.The government has cleared USD20 billion worth of goods across the country’s ports since the beginning of 2024, a source at the Customs said.Prime Minister stated during the World Economic Forum meeting in Riyadh that it costs Egypt USD10 billion annually to host 9 million refugees.Japan has pledged USD230 million in financing to support the state budget, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said.The Egyptian Tax Authority confirmed that it has not issued any directives or instructions during the previous period to date regarding the application of the tax on capital gains regarding securities on the stock exchange.The Development Finance Corporation, affiliated with the federal government of the US, is considering financing the Actis Fund’s acquisition of the Jebel El-Zeit wind station.The CBE sold USD997.6 million worth of one-year treasury bills in an auction, with an average return of 5.149%.The WB revealed that Egypt's national poverty rate rose in 2022 to 32.5% from 29.7% in FY2019-20 fiscal year.Egypt plans to bid for four desalination plants at a total cost of USD350 million on the North Coast near Ras El Hekma in mid-July, according to local media. It is worth highlighting that ORAS and SWDY were among the prequalified bidders.TMGH (FV: EGP73.80, OW) Board approved a share buyback of up to 10.0 million treasury shares during the period 29 April 2024 to 29 May 2024.According to local media, HELI (FV: EGP18.84, OW) is planning to select the co-developer of its 580 feddan New Heliopolis land plot in around two weeks and is negotiating to have the down payment paid to HELI increased to EGP1.0 billion. The project is expected to generate revenue of at least EGP35.0 billion, with a minimum gurarntee to HELI of at least EGP17.0 billion.AMOC released 3Q23/24 unaudited financial indicators. Net profit increased by 315% YoY  and declined by 21% QoQ to EGP393 million in 3Q23/24. On a nine-month basis, net profit before minority interest grew by 19% YoY to EGP1.31 billion in 9M23/24. AMOC is currently trading at FY23/24e PE of 4.7x and EV/EBITDA of 3.0x.According to local media, SUGR net profit declined by 33% YoY in 1Q24 to EGP216.8 million compared to EGP323.8 million in 1Q23.Ashry Steel is adding two new production lines worth USD150 million to its business that will be completed in ten months to scale up the production of iron and other products and increase total capacity by 30%, according to local media.Egypt's total cement exports dropped 31% YoY to USD165 million in 1Q24. Beltone Holding subsidiary, Beltone Investment Holding (BIH), will launch a USD100 million private credit platform geared towards the needs of Egyptian exporters as well as companies with overseas operations.Investment management firm Act Financial wants to either acquire or merge with another entity. A number of Saudi and Emirati investors have already expressed interest in taking part in the transaction.HRHO has issued EGP600 million of debt to its subsidiary Hermes Securities Brokerage (HSB) in the form of a senior unsecured short-term note. 
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2024-04-3003:05

Market OverviewCOMIADIBCCAPSWDYORWEALCNCLHOprepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2024-04-2903:18

The Central Bank of Egypt is auctioning off USD980 million worth of one-year t-bills.The government is reportedly looking to issue new legislation and incentives to make units offered in the New Administrative Capital’s central business district more attractive to foreign investors.The government will soon announce the new licensing requirements for private sector-run freezones.Expats have transferred some USD767 million to the government under its car-for-FX scheme.The IMF report on the first and second reviews of the EFF with Egypt revealed high estimates of fuel subsidies during the current and next fiscal years.Egypt’s chemical exports recorded USD456 million in March 2024 compared to USD696 million in March 2023.The Tourism and Finance Ministries agreed to launch a program offering subsidized loans at a 12% interest rate to local and foreign hospitality players looking to set up more hotel rooms in Egypt. ORHD (FV: EGP26.26, OW) and TMGH (FV: EGP73.80, OW) are potential beneficiaries.OCDI reported 1Q24 net profit of EGP390.1 million, up 108.3% y/y and down 52.7% q/q.EGTS reported FY23 net loss of EGP112.6 million, compared to FY22 net profit of EGP67.5 million.ZMID AGM approved 1) the distribution of EGP0.15/share cash dividends (DY of 2.3%) over two tranches and 2) the distribution of 0.89:1 stock dividends.CIRA released positive 1H23/24 results. Net income grew by 30.6% YoY to record EGP288 million.OIH released FY23 results, where it recorded a net loss of EGP161 million compared to a net profit of EGP522 million. OIH is currently trading at P/E24 of 12.3x and P/B24 of 0.7x.Egypt has moved one step higher in the financing sustainability ranking published by the IFC-backed Sustainable Banking and Finance Network (SBFN).Weekly Commodities Update |   | Last Price | WoW Change, % | Brent, USD/bbl | 89.5 | 2.5% | Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 309 | 2.9% | Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 302 | -7.9% | Polyethylene, USD/ton | 1,030 | 0.0% | Polypropylene, USD/ton | 975 | 0.0% | Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 388 | 1.0% | LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,540 | -4.5% | Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 2,089 | -0.2% | Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 130 | -0.7% | SMP, USD/MT | 2,541 | 0.0% | Last price may vary week over week in some indices due to time difference
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2024-04-2901:06

Market Overview 
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2024-04-2805:06

We published this morning our earnings expectations sheet for companies under coverage in 1Q24/FY2.For 1Q24, aggregated net profit will increase 40% YoY and 27% QoQFor FY24, aggregated net profit will increase 38% YoYStocks trading at P/E 2024 less than 5x: ESRS, POUL, CANA, HDBK, and ADIB (sorted from lowest P/E).The government said it will develop a payment strategy to reduce arrears owed to international oil companies.Egypt has collected up to USD760 million from the initiative to facilitate the import of cars for expats, which ends next Monday, according to Finance Minister.Egypt could receive USD820 million from the International Monetary Fund from June 15 onwards — shortly following the Fund’s third review of the loan program in the same month.The IMF is anticipating that the state will wrap its stake sale for the Gabal El Zeit wind farm in the current fiscal year and thinks the sale could bring in USD339 million.The IMF estimates the country’s financing gap at USD28.5 billion for the remainder of the loan program by 2026 when taking into account the inflows from the Ras El Hekma agreement.The number of tourists visiting Egypt has increased 3-4% YoY in 1Q24, according to a Tourism Ministry statement. The Cabinet approved decisions to set up a freezone, investment zone, and international tourist port in the North Coast’s Ras El Hekma.The China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) has inaugurated its CNY87.4 million (c.USD12.3 million) steel structures manufacturing factory in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.Eni has reportedly “slowed down exploration operations in Egypt a little." Eni’s production in Egypt dropped by 11.7% y-o-y to 293k barrels of oil equivalent by the end of 1Q24.State gas firm EGAS has purchased another LNG shipment as part of a plan to secure gas supplies ahead of peak consumption this summer.The IMF estimates Egypt's financing gap during the current fiscal year at about USD9.3 billion that would be financed through the Fund's sources amounting to USD2.5 billion and USD700 million from the World Bank, among other entities and countries.The Fund also said that the Egyptian authorities plan to increase foreign reserves to USD45.8 billion by the end of current fiscal year and to USD53.8 billion the next year.The Fund reported that the CBE will not lend to public authorities again, with the exception of the Ministry of Finance, and will work to bring their debts to zero by the end of the next fiscal year.Prime Minister and Finance Minister discussed a proposed tax policy document for 2024-2030 that will be used to inform and provide clarity to businesses, investors, and society at large on the country’s targets, policies, and plans for taxation over the next six years.ORAS (FV: EGP233.65, EW) Board of Directors proposed an annual cash dividend of USD0.20/share, bringing total cash dividend for FY23 to USD0.39/share. This implies a dividend yield of 8% and payout ratio of 27% for the year. A syndicate of 18 international institutions is putting together a EUR2.3 billion loan for the first line of the high-speed electric railway connecting Ain Sokhna and Matrouh, according to local media. OCDI signed with Nobu to open Nobu Hotel and Restaurant East Cairo in OCDI’s EDNC project.According to local press, FWRY is partnering with Saudi VMS and Waffarha to establish a holding company to manage Waffarha’s operations in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.Investment management firm Act Financial got the approval on its IPO on the EGX and expects to start trading its shares within two months. CANA is planning to establish a micro-finance company with the SMEs Development Agency. 
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2024-04-2801:34

Market Overview Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2024-04-2404:21

*Key news articles for today*The Ministry of Finance reduced the allocations for the export burden rebate program in FY2024/25 budget to EGP23 billion, compared to EGP28 billion in the budget of the current fiscal year. The Chairman of the Export Council for Chemical Industries, said that this reduction will be offset by an acceleration in refunding companies’ export burdens, instead of the current delays.Ministry of Finance delivered the FY2024/25 budget statement to the House. The document assumes economic growth will accelerate to 4.2% in the coming fiscal year, up from an estimated 2.9% in FY 2023/24. Headline inflation will average 17.9% down from a projected 35.7% this fiscal year, according to the document.  Debt-to-GDP ratio seen falling to to 89.0% by the end of the current fiscal year, from 95.7% in the last fiscal year. The budget deficit seen rising to 7.3% of the country’s GDP in the next fiscal year, from 7.2% estimated in the budget for the current fiscal year.The statistical statement of the economic bodies on the draft general budget revealed that the economic authorities in the transportation sector intend to borrow EGP119 billion from abroad in FY2024/25, estimated at USD2.6 billion, according to the draft budget. The sector is also expected to borrow EGP91 billion from domestic resources.The Egyptian Electricity Holding Company set the price of the dollar in the budget for the next fiscal year 2024/25 at EGP49.55, compared to the price of EGP30.9 pounds in the budget for the current fiscal year.The Shalatin Mineral Resources Company, affiliated to the Oil Ministry delivered shipments of gold to the CBE ranging between 200 and 220 kilograms during 1Q2024, with a value exceeding EGP400 million.EGX-listed companies can buy or sell treasury shares on the open or secondary markets, under recent regulatory amendments issued by the FRA. The amendments aim to increase demand for treasury shares.BINV BoD approved a decision to increase the company’s share capital ahead of its share swap agreement with Orascom Financial Holding (OFH). The company will issue some 58.3 mn shares at a value of EGP5 per share, raising its capital from EGP800 mn to around EGP1.09 bn.SAUD has appointed Moataz Elkasaby as its chief operating officer. DOMT will distribute cash dividends of EGP0.5/share, implying a dividend payout of 31% and a dividend yield of 4.4%. Record date is on 8 May 2024 and distribution date is on 13 May 2024.The Egyptian government has contracted to purchase 500K tons of sugar, and this quantity is scheduled to arrive successively during the coming period.We remind you that EGTS’s next court date for the 20.0 million sqm third phase Sahl Hasheesh land plot lawsuit is, if not further postponed, on 27 April 2024.According to local media, the Madbouly government is looking to lease a re-gasification unit from Norwegian firm Höegh LNG, with the unit arriving by summer. The government is reportedly also in talks with BW Energy to lease a unit from the Norwegian-Singaporian company for a five-year period. Israeli exports of natural gas to Egypt are set to rise 300 mn cf/d to 1.5 bn cf\d starting from 2H2025.
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2024-04-2401:47

Market Overview Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2024-04-2301:30

Market Overview Prepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA,  CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2024-04-2204:45

The CBE's net foreign liabilities' position shrank in March by about 84% to be limited to USD1.38 billion, compared to USD8.7 billion in February, the lowest since March 2022.The IMF revealed that the government is developing an electronic system for government procurement and studying the strengths and weaknesses of the public procurement system to improve the management of public investments.Saudi Arabia’s Ajlan & Bros Holding has filed an offer to the government to secure a land plot in Sharm El Sheikh’s Ras Gamila for the establishment of ten hotels. The first phase will see Ajlan commit USD1.5 billion for the development of the hotels, excluding the price of the plot.Egypt has reportedly received the second USD820 million tranche under the IMF’s USD8 billion loan program. The Oil Ministry is reportedly stopping all LNG exports to European markets starting next month.The private sector is expected to pour close to EGP10 billion into setting up projects in former HQs of government ministries that are currently being offered up as part of the state’s privatization efforts, move to the new administrative capital, and plan to develop the downtown area, Planning Minister said.The disruptions in the Red Sea prompted the CBE to expect weak purchases of foreign currency revenues from the Suez Canal during the year starting from March 2024 until February 2025. The bank expected to buy about USD3.4 billion from the Suez Canal, which is a limited value compared to previous expectations of purchases.SWDY's general assembly approved a cash dividend distribution of EGP0.50/share for FY23, implying a payout ratio of 45.5% and a DY of 1.4%.SWDY's general assembly approved decreasing the company's issued and paid-in capital from EGP2.17 billion to EGP2.14 billion through redeeming 30 million treasury shares with a value of EGP30 million. The Madbouly government plans to launch tenders for an unspecified number of water desalination projects in the Mediterranean Sea, Red Sea, and the Suez Canal within weeks.MASR (FV: EGP5.24, OW) AGM approved the distribution of EGP0.20/share cash dividends (DY of 5.1%) over two tranches: EGP0.10/share in May 2024 and EGP010/share in October 2024.OLFI is distributing cash dividends of EGP0.95/share, implying a payout ratio of 81% and a DY of 8.4%. Record date is 2 May 2024 and distribution date is 5 May 2024.DSCW shareholders approved the distribution of cash dividends of EGP0.17/share, implying a payout ratio of 66.6% and a DY of 11.2%.According to local press, EDA approved increasing the prices of some drugs in light of the increase in production costs attributed to the EGP devaluation. Sourced added that price increases of some drugs reached 50%. The implementation of price increases will occur gradually over stages.BINV has finalized acquiring 68.9% of OFH (3.31 billion shares at an average price of EGP0.44/share). According to BINV’s CEO, the Sawiris family now owns around 20% in BINV after the transaction.Sohoula consumer finance, Banque Misr’s arm, aims for securitization issuances worth more than EGP1 billion divided into two issues each worth EGP500 million, one to be finalized in 1H24 and the second towards the end of the year. Shell Egypt will begin the 11th development phase of the West Delta Deep Marine offshore concession in 3Q24. Weekly Commodities Update
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2024-04-2203:17

Market Overview CCAPUEGCESRSHRHO QNBAAIHPrepared by: Mayada Amin - CETA, CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2024-04-2103:16

The World Bank is considering providing a USD300 million loan to the Small and Medium Enterprises Agency, with the aim of enhancing the flexibility of small businesses in Egypt. Egypt's CDS rate rose during the past week, which witnessed an increase in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, to 6.93% for 5 years at the close of trading on Friday, compared to 5.8% at the end of the previous week.The government aims to raise around USD1 billion through the privatization of state-owned companies and assets via stake sales to strategic investors or EGX listings this year, and USD1.5 billion next year.The next stage for Egypt is to “to accelerate the pace of reform” by achieving four goals, IMF Middle East and Central Asia head Jihad Azour said on the sidelines of the IMF and WB spring meetup in Washington. The goals are:  1. To reduce the risks to the Egyptian economy. “The flexibility of the exchange rate contributes to this matter”.2. Bringing down inflation. 3. Raising the level of social protection.4. Promote the private sector and job creation.The price of non-subsidized bread will start falling starting today until it reaches normal levels. Minister of Supply announced a decrease in oil prices by 14%, in addition to previous reductions, bringing the total reductions on oil to 36%.Finance Minister and Planning Minister will head to the House tomorrow to give statements on the draft state budget and socioeconomic development plan for FY2024-25. Egypt has inked 14 agreements with Chinese companies to set up projects alongside our local private sector.The government aims to extend the average maturity of its debt instruments to 4.5-5 years as it focuses on longer-term bonds.The Egyptian government received seven offers from international hotel chains to take advantage of old ministries’ headquarters.Cabinet approved extending foreign operators’ exemption from airport fees until November 2024 as part of the state’s efforts to boost tourism.ADIB is in talks to purchase a 15% stake in Bank Syariah Indonesia, Indonesia's biggest Islamic bank, for USD1.1 billion.Mortgage finance firms could soon see their capital requirement doubled to EGP100 million local currency or its equivalent in FX, up from EGP50 million under new amendments. The FRA is working on developing a plan to implement Solvency II standards to enhance the financial and operational efficiency of insurance companies.PHDC (FV: EGP7.11, OW) confirmed that it is co-developing a 415 feddan project in Sidi Heneish on the North Coast and stated that expected revenue and revenue share are still to be determined. The project will be launched in 2Q24.According to local media, PHDC (FV: EGP7.11, OW) is preparing to take out a EGP1.7 billion loan.According to local media, natural gas production in Egypt declined to 4.286 bcf in February 2024 from 4.651 bcf in January 2024, the lowest since February 2018.Energean plc, an international hydrocarbon exploration and production company, expects to invest USD30-50 million in Egypt during 2024. SDX sold its 50% working interest in two blocks in the West Gharib concession in the Eastern Desert to Horizons LLC and NPC Petroleum Services for USD6.6 million. According to local media, in light of the decrease in price of locally produced cars, GBCO will compensate distributors for these price differences.
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2024-04-2101:35

Market overview 
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2024-04-1804:09

The Finance Ministry yesterday released its preliminary budget report: growth projection slashed again to 4.0%, inflation targets revised upwards to an average of 18.1%, and budget deficit to widen slightly by 0.1 percentage point to 7.3%. The government is preparing to launch a USD1.1 billion program to implement the state ownership policy, and a document issued by the World Bank revealed that the government will obtain partial financing for the program worth USD250 million to cover the operating cost.Minister of Finance said that Egypt will receive about USD20 billion from the disbursement of the second tranche of the Ras El Hekma project by the end of May, in addition to the expected inflows of c. USD1 billion from the World Bank, in addition to EUR1.07 billion from the EU and USD820 million from the IMF until the end of June.Saudi Arabia’s Ajlan & Bros Holding has reportedly indicated its interest in developing an integrated tourism project in Ras Gamila in a letter to the government, unnamed sources said.The export councils are seeking to establish export intermediation companies whose mission is to market Egyptian products in the foreign markets, instead of producing companies. The Minister of Finance said that the government is trying to extend the maturity of some of its domestic debt held by public entities to alleviate some of the pressure on the state budget.Misr Clearing Company is preparing to collect capital gains tax from investors after completing the tax base and collection system within two months, sources said, adding that the collection process will be carried out for the entire year 2023 and six months of 2014.PHDC (FV: EGP7.11, OW) is co-developing a 420 feddan project in Sidi Heneish on the North Coast with Cleopatra Group whereby PHDC will be entitled to 67% of revenue as the developer and Cleopatra Group will be entitled to 33% of revenue as the land owner. The project is expected to generate revenue of over EGP100.0 billion within seven years. The US President called for more than tripling the existing 7.5% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum imports, new pressure on Mexico to prevent China from shipping metals to the United States via Mexican ports, and an investigation of Chinese subsidies for its shipbuilding industry.Crude oil futures fell more than 3% Wednesday as the market dismissed the risk of a wider war between Israel and Iran that could disrupt supplies. June Brent futures were down USD2.73, or 3.03%, at settle at USD87.29/bbl.GBCO announced the launch of a new JV (GSK) to manage the MG Motor dealership in Jordon. GSK is a partnership between GB Auto and the former MG Motors distributor in Jordon.Beltone Financial Holding announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, Beltone Venture Capital, signed a partnership agreement with CI Venture Capital, a wholly owned subsidiary of Citadel International Holdings, an investment management firm in Abu Dhabi, to manage a USD30 million fund to back fast-growing startups.  OFH shareholders have responded to BINV’s MTO for a majority stake in the company, where owners of some 3.3 billion shares (a 69% stake in the company) responded to the offer. BINV will now need to complete the share swap. Several banks have recently issued savings certificates for large clients, amid increased interest rates and increased competition to maintain more liquidity. The minimum amount for purchasing those new savings certificates ranges between EGP1 million and EGP10 million, and the fixed interest rate on these certificates ranges between 21% and 25.5% with a monthly exchange period.
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2024-04-1802:14

Market Overview MASRORHDEMFDESRSALCNprepared by : Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2024-04-1702:32

The IMF has maintained its projection for Egypt’s real GDP growth in FY2023/24 at 3%, and to rebound to 4.4 percent in FY2024/25.Interest payments in the state budget FY2024/25 are estimated at EGP1.8 trillion, about 70% of the total revenues of EGP2.63 trillion, due to higher estimation of average interest payment on treasuries, at 25%, compared to 18.5% in FY2023/24.The government is looking to restart a number of stalled state projects building social housing, waste management facilities, and water infrastructure.Qatar and Algeria will become our two main sources of LNG, as the government seeks to import up to 52.5 bn cubic feet to meet heightened summer demand, an unnamed government official saidEgypt’s exports grew 5.3% YoY in the first three months of the year to total USD 9.6 bn.The Minister of Finance said that the government hopes to achieve the targets of its companies sales' program in 3 to 5 years. He added that the government is not likely to issue Eurobonds during the current fiscal year.CBE is planning to increase the limits on transfers through Instapay and the digital channels of banks.FAIT’s standalone net profit expanded by 48% y/y in 1Q24 recording EGP6 billion, supported by strong r growth (+82.4% y/y) which stood at EGP10.17 billion.EGX announced the opening price of the subscription right for KIMA’s capital increase at EGP3.27/share.MNT-Halan, GB Capital subsidiary,  is considering launching a multi-sukuk issuance program worth EGP20 billion during the coming period. The program is still in its initial stages, and its aim is to finance the company’s subsidiaries “Halan, Mashroey and Tasaheel”. 
Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis

2024-04-1701:05

Market Overview Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe
Pre-Trading Thoughts

Pre-Trading Thoughts

2024-04-1605:28

The CBE has increased cash withdrawal limits from EGP150k to EGP250k per day from banks, and from EGP20k to EGP30k per day from ATMs.World Bank expects Egypt's GDP growth to decline to 2.8% in FY2023/24 from 3.8% in FY2022/23, 0.7 percentage point drop from its previous forecast in January, exacerbated by the repercussions of the Middle East conflict on Suez Canal and tourism. Growth is expected to record 4.2% in FY2024/25.The Renewable Energy Authority and the Sovereign Fund of Egypt are planning to open up bidding for the second half of the Zafarana wind farm in the latter half of the year. The government unveiled its plans to build two solar power plants for EGPC worth over EGP1 billion, to be financed by a grant from the EU.Egypt's fuel imports increased to USD3.3 billion during 1Q24, an increase of 6% compared to the corresponding quarter of last year.ESRS (FV: EGP97.02, OW) reported its 4Q23 and FY23 consolidated financial results with solid operational performance. Net attributable income came in at EGP1.0 billion in 4Q23, 82% higher YoY, and reversing 3Q23 loss of EGP508.8 million. This brings FY23 attributable loss to EGP113.0 million vs. a net profit of EGP4.3 billion in FY22. ESRS is currently trading at FY24e P/E of 1.4x.ESRS’s Board of Directors is holding an extraordinary general assembly to consider reducing the company’s capital through retiring treasury shares worth EGP910.5 million.Qalaa Holdings (CCAP) has signed a debt settlement agreement with Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, Arab African International Bank, and Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait whereby Qalaa settles the entirety of its debts for a total of EGP4.547 billion as follows:1.            Selling 239.1 million shares, representing 17.68% of TAQA Arabia, with Qalaa retaining the right to repurchase those shares within five years, and the banks having the right to resell those shares to Qalaa in the sixth year.2.            A registered 60,127 sqm land plot overlooking the Nile in Tibeen area.3.            Compensations for variations in exchange rate and stock prices. MOPCO clarified that the merged company net profit on 31 December 2023 was EGP3.59 billion, and the net profit of the merging company was EGP5.97 billion in the same period. It added that the merged company net profit was reported in the equity section of the merging company financial statement in FY23. Local free market urea prices increased from EGP16k to EGP20k per ton during the last month with the start of the summer cultivation season.Petrotreatment is planning to float its shares on EGX during the coming period.HELI (FV: EGP18.84, OW) expects to complete its financial assessment of the three offers it received from Hyde Park Developments, MASR (FV: EGP5.24, OW), and Mountain View to co-develop 500 feddans in New Heliopolis before the end of April 2024 in preparation for selecting an offer.DOMT shareholders approved cash dividend distribution of EGP0.50/share to be distributed in May 2024. This implies a dividend payout of 31% and dividend yield of 4.2%. Weekly Commodities Update|Last Price | WoW Change, % Brent, USD/bbl | 90.5 | -0.8% Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 363.1 | -5.3% Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 328.0 | 0.0% Polyethylene, USD/ton | 1,030.0 | 0.0% Polypropylene, USD/ton | 970.0 | 0.0% Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 394.1 | -3.3% LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,448.1 | 1.5% Egyptia Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 2,095.0 | -0.1% Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 129.3 | 0.1% SMP, USD/MT | 2,550.0 | 0.0% Last price may vary week over week in some indices due to time difference
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