At Any Rate

Meera Chandan, Francis Diamond, Patrick Locke and Octavia Popescu discuss the drivers of yield curve steepening across DM markets, FX implications of fiscal differentiation/ US payrolls and the latest developments in FX hedge ratios.   Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Francis Diamond, Global Rates Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Octavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 5 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5073426-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Oil prices have been trading at a premium to fair value over the last two months with Brent’s outperformance driven not by geopolitical factors but rather by an lopsided build in global inventories,  with China accounting for two-thirds of the increase. While OECD inventories remain the primary driver in our pricing model, only 25% of this year’s global stock build has entered OECD storage, compared to the historical average of 40%, creating a valuation challenge. Mathematically, lower OECD intake raises Brent’s fair value, even as global stocks build, resulting in a storage premium. Looking ahead to 2H25, the key questions are how much spare storage capacity China has—currently about 600 million barrels—and whether China will use excess crude to ramp up processing and export more refined products. For now, stock builds are likely to continue outside price-setting Western markets, and despite higher refinery runs, Chinese product exports remain below last year’s levels as domestic inventories are replenished. Still, given the market’s move toward a sizable surplus and ongoing uncertainty around both the scale and drivers of China’s stock build, we are maintaining our current price forecasts.   Speaker:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on September 5, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5066258-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden, Anezka Christovova and Ben Ramsey discuss the post-summer investment environment for EM and thoughts around tomorrow's payrolls scenarios. This podcast was recorded on 04 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4117650-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Frida Infante discuss recent developments and our views in Sweden and Norway rates market.    This podcast was recorded on 04 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5074338-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast, Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss their latest views on Euro area and UK rate market as markets start to move out of summer holiday mode.   This podcast was recorded on 29 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5070106-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Meera Chandan, Aditya Chordia and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss the various possible outcomes for the French political landscape and discuss implications for the economic/ fiscal, rates and FX markets. This podcast was recorded on 28 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5068210-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

This week, our FX Strategists break down the growth/inflation mix in the US and how that’s impacting the dollar, before providing an update on the state of cross-border USD flows and FX hedging. They also provide a recap of recent tactical developments in G10, including the dovish RBNZ surprise and recent data out of the UK.     Speakers Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Ben Jarman, Global Economics, Rates & FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Octavia Popescu, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 22 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5061667-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

In this podcast Francis Diamond and Frida Infante discuss the outlook for Euro area and UK inflation over the coming months and their thoughts on HICP and UK RPI inflation markets.       This podcast was recorded on 20 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5026778-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

In this podcast Khagendra Gupta, Morten Lund, and James Nelligan discuss recent developments and our views in Sweden and Norway macro, FX, and rates market.   This podcast was recorded on 15 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5054858-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5052254-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5048039-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5057023-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5054895-0   for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Meera Chandan, Anezka Christovova and James Nelligan discuss the outlook for the dollar and the next catalysts following the recent consolidation, various scenarios for the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and implications for DM and EM currencies in the region. A deep dive into GBP and Scandi central banks, as well as a discussion of our highest conviction views in the region also follows.   This podcast was recorded on 15 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5054858-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5058610-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5056093-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Ipek Ozil discuss the drivers of US and Eurex futures roll and their outlook for Sep25/Dec25 bond futures rollover.   Speakers:   Ipek Ozil, Head of U.S. Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy Khagendra Gupta, Head of European Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy   This podcast was recorded on August 14, 2025.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5049823-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5056091-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

This week, our Global FX & EM strategists, Patrick Locke, Antonin Delair and Anezka Christovova discuss recent developments for the dollar, takeaways from our suite of systematic FX signals,  and what’s behind our EM FX upgrade to OW this week. This podcast was recorded on 08 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5035130-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5049466-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss the August BoE rate decision and provide and update on Scandinavian Rate market themes and views.   This podcast was recorded on 08 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5052438-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5052254-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Anezka Christovova discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class. This podcast was recorded on 07 August 2025. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

UK economist Allan Monks joins FX strategist James Nelligan to discuss the risks around the BoE policy meeting this week and the broader view on the UK economy and the pound sterling.   Speakers: James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Allan Monks, Chief UK Economist   This podcast was recorded on August 5, 2025 This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5042950-0,  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

Meera Chandan and Jay Barry discuss the take-aways for FX and rates from key events this week, ranging from FOMC, Payrolls, Refunding and Trade deals.    Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy    This podcast was recorded on 8/1/25. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5045488-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5042769-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden and Anezka Christovova discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.   This podcast was recorded on 01 August 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Trade negotiations and tariffs continue to roil commodity markets with the Trump administration warning that India and China will face penalties due to their ongoing purchases of Russian oil while also shocking the copper market this week by exempting refined copper cathode from Section 232 duties. Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss these developments and how they shape the outlook on prices over the balance of the year.   Speakers: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research  Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Research   This podcast was recorded on August 1, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5044362-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5044343-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Teresa Ho and PJ Vohra discuss the latest developments with stablecoins, how they could or could not influence Treasury demand, and the introduction of tokenized money market funds.    Speakers:   Teresa Ho, Head of U.S. Short Duration Strategy Pankaj Vohra, U.S. Short-Term Fixed Income Strategy     This podcast was recorded on July 31, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5034932-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4927356-0, & https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5030616-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Meera Chandan, Greg Fuzesi, Khagendra Gupta and Aditya Chordia discuss take-aways from the latest ECB meeting as well as expectations on the US-EU tariff negotiations for the outlook of European economy, rates and currency markets.    Speakers: Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy  Greg Fuzesi, Economic & Policy Research  Khagendra Gupta, Rates Strategy  Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy     This podcast was recorded on 25 July 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5034766-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5038613-0,  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5038418-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.