At Any Rate

Meera Chandan, Natasha Kaneva, Anezka Christovova, Junya Tanase and Patrick Locke discuss the outlook for gold/ the dollar, emphasize the case for cyclical FX, re-examine the prospects for yen following political developments in Japan and look ahead to next steps in the US government shutdown.   This podcast was recorded on 10 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5098922-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Ben Ramsey, Nishant Poojary and Jonny Goulden discuss the latest publication on EM Sovereign External Repayment Risks. This report builds on our previous work, providing a comprehensive assessment of external repayment risks across a broad set of EM and frontier sovereigns. We focus on 18 sovereigns flagged by our risk metric assessment as most vulnerable to credit events. Our set of countries features many familiar names that have faced stress in the past, but there are also some new names in the mix. Our key finding is that the majority of at-risk EM sovereigns possess sufficient reserves and financing sources to meet upcoming Eurobond amortizations through 2026.   Speakers Jonny Goulden, Head of EM Fixed Income Strategy Ben Ramsey, Head of EM Sovereign Credit Strategy Nishant Poojary, Emerging Markets Strategy   This podcast was recorded on October 8, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4987663-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

This week, our Global FX Strategists, Arindam Sandilya and Patrick Locke break down the latest on 1) the US government shutdown's impact on the dollar, 2) next week's Japan LDP election for JPY, and 3) notable flows from recently-released FX reserve manager data for 2Q. This podcast was recorded on 03 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5093564-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast Khagendra Gupta and Ipek Ozil discuss the drivers of €STR/SOFR cross currency bases.   Speakers:  Ipek Ozil, Head of US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy Khagendra Gupta, Head of European Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 3 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5092332-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.  

Agri markets have returned to the US trade agenda, following President Trump’s commitment to discuss China’s absence of US soybean export orders at an upcoming meeting with President Xi. However, it’s likely too late for US soybean farmers and exporters to regain market share through the current season, unless the Chinese reserve moves into stockpiling mode. During this episode, Tracey also discusses the agri market outlook including recent fundamental developments and weather risks as the ENSO cycle is transitioning to La Nina. Our September 2025 assessment of global agri commodity fundamentals has found that availability remains at or near multi-year lows in 2025/26 and with markets priced for production perfection, we see upside price risks ahead across much of the complex.    Speakers:   Tracey Allen, Senior Commodities Strategist, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on October 3, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5090092-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5088200-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5094837-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Jonny Goulden, Anezka Christovova and Ben Ramsey discuss the latest market developments and their impacts for the EM fixed income asset class.   This podcast was recorded on 01 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates Strategists Teresa Ho and Ipek Ozil reflect on shifts to SOFR and EFFR this month as well as discuss the implications of TGCR as an alternative benchmark.   Speakers Teresa Ho, Head, U.S. Short Duration Strategy Ipek Ozil, Head, U.S. Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy   This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5083215-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5082188-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5090225-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Meera Chandan, Antonin Delair and Patrick Locke discuss the lower conviction and data dependent outlook for the dollar, as well as implications from systematic signals, the US government shutdown and payrolls. Risks around the EUR/USD view as well as AI-FX linkages are discussed.   Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5089100-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

A larger than initially expected supply disruption from the world’s second largest copper mine, Freeport’s Grasberg in Indonesia, will significantly tighten the copper market in the coming quarters and has flipped our forecasted S&D balance to deficits for this year and in 2026.  Much tighter fundamentals and the draw on limited ex-US inventory flips us bullish on copper, seeing prices pushing towards $11,250/mt in the coming quarters.   Speaker: Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research   This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2025.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5089117-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

In this podcast Francis Diamond and Khagendra Gupta discuss the Riksbank and Norges Bank meetings this month and implications for Scandinavian rate markets as well as recent noise around UK politics.   This podcast was recorded on 26 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5087057-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Ayomide Mejabi, Nicolaie Alexandru, Katherine Marney and Gbolahan Taiwo discuss the mood at the 2025 Emerging and Frontier Markets Opportunities Conference in London focusing on key themes and highlighting specific frontier countries.   This podcast was recorded on 23 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

With the Fed cutting cycle commencing this week, consensus expectations of a straightforward series of quarter-point rate cuts conceals a broad spectrum of potential outcomes. Commodities have rallied 15% on average over previous benign cutting cycles yet have faced much stiffer headwinds over past recessionary-tinged rate-cutting cycles. That being said, the risk of renewed inflation is also high, especially in the US, which will celebrate its 250th anniversary in 2026. Reflation, accompanied by stronger underlying growth momentum, has produced the strongest and most broad-based positive environment for commodities, averaging +1.6% monthly returns. Natasha Kaneva is joined by Greg Shearer to discuss how commodities have performed over previous Fed cutting cycles and what to expect this time around.   Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research Greg Shearer, Head of Base & Precious Metals Research    This podcast was recorded on September 19, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5082200-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Following DM central bank Superweek, we discuss currency take-aways from the Fed, BoC, Norges Bank and BoE and preview FX implications from the SNB and Riksbank next week.   Speakers: Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 19 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5085230-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Rates strategists Jay Barry and Francis Diamond discuss the outcomes of this week's FOMC, BoE, and BoJ meetings, and the impact on DM rates markets.   Speakers:  Jay Barry, Head of Global Rates Strategy Francis Diamond, Head of European Rate Strategy   This podcast was recorded on September 19, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5084041-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5085131-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates strategist Phoebe White and European Rates strategist Frida Infante discuss the August inflation data and their outlook for inflation markets going forward. While they see limited catalysts to push Euro area breakevens out of recent ranges, the backdrop remains supportive for US breakevens.   Speakers: Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy Frida Infante, European Rates Strategist   This podcast was recorded on September 18, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5077727-0 for more information; please visit  www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.    

Jonny Goulden, Ben Ramsey, YM Hong and Ayomide Mejabi discuss the implications of the Fed cut for EM, as well as the mood at the Emerging and Frontier Markets Opportunities Conference in London. This podcast was recorded on 18 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4117650-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US Rates strategists Phoebe White and Ipek Ozil reflect on the drivers of this week’s bull flattening move and discuss views ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting and the September corporate tax day.   Speakers Phoebe White, Head of US Inflation Strategy Ipek Ozil, Head of US Interest Rate Derivatives Strategy   This podcast was recorded on Sept 12, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5080506-0 https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5076988-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

This week, our Global FX Strategists touch on the latest developments in CNY, and preview a loaded central bank week for currencies.    Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Arindam Sandilya, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on Sept 12, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at  https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5079822-0  for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss the Euro market post the September ECB meeting, French spreads following the appointment of a new PM and the upcoming BoE meeting.   Speakers: Francis Diamond, Head of European Rates Strategy Aditya Chordia, Rates Strategy Khagendra Gupta, Rates Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 12 September 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5076241-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We revisit the five conditions outlined in June that are necessary for crude oil prices to start reflecting the expected year-end weakness, and suggest that September could be a turning point for the oil market. Global oil inventories built, but the rise in OECD stocks has been modest by comparison. In response, both Brent and WTI curves have flattened out and turned into a ‘smile.’ Refining margins and runs surged in the third quarter, supporting a rebuilding of global product inventories, though stocks in certain regions and products remain below their five-year averages. As a result, refining margins have eased from their previous stratospheric highs, yet continue to hold up well.   Speaker: Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5078020-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.