At the Water's Edge

Veterans die by suicide at a rate 72% higher than their civilian peers, and women veterans at a rate 101% higher. Lyndsay Tkach, Wounded Warrior Project's Director of Mental and Brain Health Services, has spent twelve years working on that problem. In the series finale, she explains why she calls suicide "a human issue" rather than only a medical one, and what it would take to reach veterans at scale before a crisis hits. This conversation covers the risk factors that sit outside the therapist's office (financial distress, chronic pain, sleep problems, broken relationships), the difference between risk factors and warning signs, and how WWP screens every warrior who comes in through its financial, physical, and mental health programs. It also takes on a hard question: how do you screen a community that learned to lie on every health survey? Along the way, Lyndsay shares that one in four WWP warriors surveyed reported suicidal thoughts in the past year, why connection may be the most underused intervention, and why families need support too. If you or someone you know is in crisis, call or text 988 (Suicide & Crisis Lifeline), or reach the Veterans Crisis Line at 988, press 1. This is Episode 5, the finale, of Still Here, a five-part series produced in partnership with Wounded Warrior Project for Suicide Prevention Awareness Month. Catch up with Episodes 1–4 (Zach, Lindsey, Sam, and Joe) if you haven't yet. Chapters: 0:00 Cold open: the final chapter of Still Here 0:40 Welcome, and introducing Lyndsay 1:12 How big is veteran suicide? The numbers behind the "22 a day" debate 2:47 "Suicide is a human issue," not just a medical one 4:06 Why veterans are at higher risk: losing structure and purpose in transition 5:56 The gaps in how veterans get help 8:18 Beyond therapy: non-clinical help and the four protective factors 10:32 Risk factors vs. warning signs 12:04 Screening before a crisis happens 13:33 No magic list: how WWP's triage program works 15:48 Who gets screened, and the one-in-four finding 17:06 "We all lied on every health survey": screening when people don't tell the truth 20:08 Does it matter whether a human or a form asks? 21:52 System gaps vs. veterans not asking for help 23:48 Where is the biggest room for improvement? Connection 26:05 Where to start: resources for veterans and families 27:35 Families, and the 135 people affected by a single suicide Learn more about Wounded Warrior Project: woundedwarriorproject.org

Masked men with vans full of fuel outside the British base that launched B-52s against Iran. A FlyDubai co-pilot stabbing his captain on a flight to Tel Aviv. A drone knocking out power to the Prophet's Mosque in Medina. Three incidents in one week, as Iran's 45-day deadline on the U.S. blockade expires and a third American carrier heads for the region. Is Iran launching a terror campaign? I don't think so. If Iran is behind these incidents, it looks less like an offensive and more like a regime testing three different escalation paths, all before U.S. combat power peaks in late November. In this solo brief, I walk through each incident the way I'd brief a commander: what we know, what we don't, the competing explanations, and my confidence level. Then I cover where this fits on Iran's escalation ladder and the indicators to watch over the next six weeks. Chapters: 00:00 Is Iran escalating through terror? 02:47 Bottom line up front 03:41 Incident 1: RAF Fairford 08:44 Incident 2: The FlyDubai cockpit attack 12:49 Why this doesn't fit the pilot-suicide pattern 18:31 Incident 3: The Medina grid strike 21:30 Why now? The November window 23:54 What to watch next Mentioned in this episode: Gray zone operations with F. David Diaz: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-RUmBaqkTQ&t=33s Robert Pape on the Escalation Trap: https://www.youtube.com/@AttheWatersEdge-r5e/playlists Watch the full video version, with maps and the flight data, on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlp8SIKfNIY Members of The Briefing Room on YouTube get a companion video on state use of suicide terrorism: who becomes a suicide attacker, why states have used them, and why most stopped. https://www.youtube.com/@AttheWatersEdge-r5e/membership Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg

Trita Parsi argues Trump is looking for a "last chapter" in Iran, an ending that makes the whole war look worth it, and that diplomacy won't give him one. Iran's president flew to New York in the middle of a war to put a deal on the table, and Trump rejected it within days. Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, joins At the Water's Edge to explain what Iran was really offering and why both sides may be heading toward a third round of war. We discuss why Iran's UNGA proposal mirrors the collapsed MOU, and why sanctions can hurt Iran without changing its policy. Parsi puts the odds of major U.S. escalation after the midterms at 70–80%, and explains why Iran may try to strike first. We also get into what a Democratic Congress could mean for the war and for Secretary Hegseth, and his argument that Europe is already a party to the conflict. On China, he covers Chinese commercial satellite imagery, China's role in holding down oil prices, and the soaring cost of escorting tankers through the Gulf. We close on why Tehran won't make irreversible nuclear concessions to a president it doesn't trust. Chapters: 00:00 Iran's president comes to New York 00:43 Iran's new offer and the MOU 03:16 Are sanctions actually working? 05:52 Has Washington learned anything? 08:10 The odds of U.S. escalation 09:41 What if Democrats win the midterms? 12:03 Why Iran wants a deal before the midterms 14:08 Real offer or message to the world? 16:25 Is Europe already in this war? 20:31 Will China or Russia get involved? 26:06 Could Iran overplay its hand? 28:44 Where to find Trita Parsi Guest: Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft quincyinst.org tritaparsi.substack.com X: @tparsi Watch the full video on YouTube: At the Water's Edge Subscribe on Substack: substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg At the Water's Edge is a national security and geopolitics podcast hosted by Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret and one of the last ground force commanders in Afghanistan. Views expressed by guests are their own.

Iran offered Trump a seven-day path to end the war. Robert Pape explains why taking it or refusing it both hurt him before the midterms. Iran's president came to the UN in New York with a deal on the table: a quick end to the fighting and a return of nuclear inspectors, in exchange for money up front. University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape argues the offer is a trap. Any upfront payment from Washington costs Trump with his own base whether Iran delivers or not. Walking away keeps oil prices high heading into the midterms. Either way, Tehran wins. Host Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret, and Pape also discuss: - Why the June MOU fell apart, and why Pape says it's about the balance of power, not who broke it first - What Kissinger's "diplomacy" really meant, and what it tells us about negotiating with Iran - Pape's forecast for Pete Hegseth, and why he says this is only the beginning - Why this winter could be the real reckoning for oil, diesel, and heating fuel, with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve already drawn down - What it means if France sends forces to Saudi Arabia to counter the Houthis, as it is reportedly considering - Why a Europe pulled into the Middle East is a gift to Putin The rest of the Q&A, including whether Israel would attempt an assassination on U.S. soil and Pape's case that Netanyahu isn't running Trump's war, is available now to Briefing Room members on our YouTube channel and will be released for everyone later this week. Follow Robert Pape's analysis on The Escalation Trap: https://escalationtrap.substack.com Subscribe to At the Water's Edge on Substack: https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg At the Water's Edge is a national security and geopolitics podcast hosted by Scott Kelly, a former Green Beret, taking a practitioner's view beyond the headlines.

Joe Stabley is a Special Forces medic turned physician assistant — one of the most demanding career fields in the military, followed by a doctorate-adjacent civilian one. By any outward measure, he was a success. He also spent the better part of a decade managing suicidal ideation that started with a friend's death on a peacetime deployment before 9/11, and that he describes as something he still lives with today, not something he's recovered from. This conversation traces that whole arc: Jason's suicide in the Sinai when Joe was 19, two more friends lost in the years that followed, a breakdown in an ER that led him to the edge of a freeway overpass, an Adderall dependency that started as a PA-school fix, and the VA and Wounded Warrior Project support that ultimately got him here — now a member of WWP's national campaign team. Joe calls this the most raw interview he's ever given, and it shows. If you or someone you know is in crisis, call or text 988 (Suicide & Crisis Lifeline), or reach the Veterans Crisis Line at 988, press 1. This is Episode 4 of Still Here, a five-part series produced in partnership with Wounded Warrior Project for Suicide Prevention Awareness Month. Catch up with Episodes 1–3 (Zach, Lindsey, and Sam) if you haven't yet. Episode 5 — Lyndsay Tkach, WWP's Director of Mental and Brain Health Services, closing out the series — drops next week. Chapters: 0:00 Welcome, and introducing Joe 0:17 Setting up the paradox: a celebrated medic who decided to die 2:38 Pre-9/11: Jason's suicide at a peacetime outpost in the Sinai 9:08 Iraq, 2007: losing Rob Perelli and carrying the weight forward 11:07 Coming home to a healthcare system that felt broken 13:12 Does military life itself brutalize people, combat or not? 14:31 Genetics, childhood, and service: combat as catalyst, not cause 18:06 Has suicide prevention actually improved since he was 19? 20:14 Was Jason's death alone enough to explain everything? 22:28 "I dedicated my entire life to medicine" — and the weight of not saving people 26:03 "This is the measuring stick by which I judge my existence" 26:52 Medical retirement, and the Green Beret actuarial tables 28:48 Eleven years in, and losing a second friend right after the first 32:48 How does a guy with everything going for him get here? 33:04 PA school begins 33:24 A panic attack in uniform, and the trigger that came out of nowhere 39:23 Diagnosis, Adderall, and a dependency he didn't see coming 40:47 The ER, a schedule with no rhythm, and the first suicidal moment 52:05 Did being a provider make it harder to see it in himself? 52:48 Getting help: the VA, Vet Centers, and finally talking 56:03 "A chronic condition you're managing in real time" 56:18 His advice: don't carry this alone 1:05:32 Closing thoughts Learn more about Wounded Warrior Project: woundedwarriorproject.org