This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Grayson’s San Francisco Field Work where he rode in a Wayve vehicle on the freeway, compared Waymo’s Jaguar I-PACE and Ojai robotaxis back to back, attended DoorDash’s Dash Forward event, and found Travis Kalanick’s Atoms autonomous vehicle on the streets of San Francisco.Grayson’s verdict on Wayve is clear. With zero interventions in dense San Francisco traffic, the ride felt very similar to Tesla’s Robotaxi. Grayson believes Wayve has the world’s best competitor to FSD today, is 12 to 16 months from an L2+ product in market, and roughly 36 months from going fully unsupervised, most likely first in London.Waymo’s Ojai is still teething but dramatically better than three weeks ago, and while the driving felt identical to Texas, the San Francisco vehicles were spotless while Austin remains the dirtiest Waymo market Grayson has ridden in. After months of searching, Grayson found the Atoms autonomous vehicle near Golden Gate Park, located its depot through OMEGA, and will release an Atoms Field Report on Monday.Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi rode unsupervised in a Pony.ai powered Verne robotaxi in Zagreb, while speculation builds that Mobileye might not have a future in robotaxis.On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Dubai opened the Dubai Autonomous Mobility Lab as it prepares for 25% fully autonomous operations, with WeRide already operating fully autonomously in the Emirate.Episode Chapters 0:00 Waymo SFO Pickup Experience 04:38 Wayve San Francisco and Freeway Ride08:58 Wayve Timeline to Unsupervised 10:13 233,000 Mile Waymo I-PACE13:23 Waymo's Avomo Problem16:23 Atoms Autonomous Vehicle20:08 Mysterious BMW Testing in San Francisco and Mountain View22:08 DoorDash Dash Forward Event25:39 Dara Khosrowshahi Rides Unsupervised in Zagreb27:02 Where's Mobileye?30:05 Lyft Expands Brand to Europe 33:15 Who Jumps from Uber to Lyft First?36:49 When Does Uber Vertically Integrate Robotaxis?43:24 Zoox Perceived Intersection Problems45:18 Kodiak Announces IKEA as Unsupervised Over-the-Road Partner49:05 Foreign Autonomy Desk49:30 Next WeekThe Road to Autonomy provides institutional intelligence for the Autonomy Economy, powered by AUTNMY AI. We built the indices, set the benchmarks, and execute the fieldwork to put decision-ready physical AI intelligence directly into your workflows with OMEGA.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: team@lightshedtmt.com
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss their Texas Field Work where they rode in Cybercab, Waymo, Avride, May Mobility robotaxis, Kodiak and Aurora autonomous trucks, and inspected depots across Austin and Dallas.Grayson’s verdict on Tesla’s Cybercab is simple. Once you go Cybercab, you don’t go back. In Austin, wait times averaged two to five minutes across dozens of rides, and from a software perspective Grayson found no material difference between Cybercab and the Model Y Robotaxi in terms of performance.In Austin, Grayson counted roighly 200 to 300 vehicles at Avride’s upfitting facility, a presence he believes the market is overlooking, and views Hyundai as a quiet winner of the robotaxi buildout with the IONIQ 5 powering Waymo, Avride and Motional. The Zoox depot in Dallas was under construction with no visible charging infrastructure, and Grayson estimates it is 12 to 18 months from being operational.Both Walt and Grayson rode in a Kodiak autonomous truck and Walt noted clear improvement ahead of Kodiak’s driver-out target on the Dallas to Houston lane by year-end. Additionally, Walt rode in an unsupervised Aurora autonomous truck at their Investor Day.On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Baidu is ramping supervised robotaxi testing in London with Lyft, Mercedes-Benz signed a licensing deal with Wayve, and Tensor Auto is preparing to deploy robotaxis with Volt Premium Taxi in Bulgaria.Episode Chapters 0:00 Once You Go Cybercab, You Don't Go Back 03:56 Robotaxi in Dallas 09:01 Cybercab Wait Times, Pickups and Routing in Austin 12:10 Austin Robotaxi Depots 13:45 Avride's Austin Depot 16:02 Zoox's Dallas Depot 17:22 May Mobility in Arlington 20:17 Kodiak Targets Driver-Out on Dallas to Houston by Year-End 24:19 Avride in Dallas and the Uber Partner Math 26:46 Hyundai Is the Quiet Winner in Robotaxis 27:30 Walt Amends His View on Upfitting 30:57 Tesla's Vertical Integration and Supercharger Advantage 33:06 Aurora Investor Day and the 1,000 Truck Target 40:22 President Xi's Visit and a Wake-Up Call for Detroit 47:01 Foreign Autonomy Desk 49:33 Next WeekThe Road to Autonomy provides institutional intelligence for the Autonomy Economy, powered by AUTNMY AI. We built the indices, set the benchmarks, and execute the fieldwork to put decision-ready physical AI intelligence directly into your workflows with OMEGA.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: team@lightshedtmt.com
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo’s expansion to Tokyo and Singapore, NHTSA’s ongoing audit of Tesla’s Cybercab in Austin and Bolt’s plan to deploy up to 25,000 Lucid robotaxis in Europe.Today, Tesla has roughly 40 Cybercabs operating in Austin, and Grayson believes Tesla is respectfully holding at its home market while NHTSA completes a fact-finding audit. If Tesla passes, it is free to deploy in any state that permits fully autonomous operations. Walt expects the process to wrap by year-end, and Grayson reads Administrator Morrison’s Pittsburgh speech on updating outdated federal motor vehicle safety standards (FMVSS) as a signal that a pathway is opening.As Waymo continues their global expansion, Grayson predicts Singapore will be an IONIQ 5 market and Tokyo a Toyota market, with the vehicle constraint that has defined Waymo now dissipating, and he reads the Allianz partnership as the insurance piece falling into place for Waymo’s grand European expansion.In Las Vegas, riders can now go anywhere in the ODD, and in Nashville, The Road to Autonomy Special Field correspondent David Moss got banned from the Lyft app playing autonomy roulette.May Mobility announced a SPAC with $10 million of 2025 revenue and a $270,000 bill of materials, and Wayve hired Waymo’s former CFO, which Grayson views as a signal Wayve may be eyeing the public markets.On the Foreign Autonomy Desk, Grayson and Walt analyzed Einride’s deployment in Germany, Pony AI, Uber and Verne’s driver-out launch in Zagreb on a 13.67-mile fixed loop. Spain issued its first SAE Level 4 permit to WeRide and Uber, with Grayson predicting a Waymo expansion to Madrid by Q2 of next year. In Singapore, Grab is expanding their WeRide fleet 5X to 50 robotaxis.The Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy™ powered AUTNMY AI. Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: team@lightshedtmt.com
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk are joined by special guest Jason Calacanis, one of the first investors in Uber, to debate his bull case on Uber, who wins the robotaxi endgame and whether local governments will cap the deployment of autonomous vehicles.Jason earns the first clappy hat of the episode for saying what few in the market will, Tesla is obsessed with safety. The incidents Waymo has absorbed would be showstoppers under Tesla, and Tesla knows it. Jason, who drives FSD daily on Hardware 4, puts the system at 98 percent of the way to Level 4 and wants to buy a Cybercab fleet.The robotaxi endgame, in Jason’s view, comes down to manufacturing. A shift from 2 percent of global miles on rideshare to 30 percent requires more than 100 million autonomous vehicles and a $5 trillion fleet build-out larger than the AI data center build-out.Tesla wins the gold because it owns the factory. In Jason’s opinion Waymo will have to buy a car company, likely Rivian or Lucid, after it spins out of Google and IPOs. Uber owns the demand and will take the rest of the market with its 20 partners, several of which Jason predicts will pivot to building only robotaxis. His market share call is 40 percent Tesla, 35 percent Uber and 15 percent Waymo.Walt pushes back on whether there is enough at the table for Uber’s twelfth partner and questions whether any of them are close to Tesla or Waymo today, with 300 Nuro powered Lucid Gravity vehicles by June being a win. Jason counters that Nuro and Avride will be driver-out within 24 months and that no one else can afford the $100 to $300 per customer required to build another Uber-scale network.The sharpest debate of the episode is regulatory capture. Jason argues local governments will cap and license autonomous vehicles the way they did Airbnb, that drivers will be the first mass unemployment from AI and that Uber is right to negotiate a soft landing with unions.Grayson argues federal preemption is coming and that caps will disappear when a national framework arrives. The two settle it with a steak dinner bet on whether local communities or the federal government win the fight in the United States.Jason closes with his theory on Uber and his dream scenario of Travis Kalanick returning as CEO of Uber.Episode Chapters0:00 Jason Calacanis joins Autonomy Markets02:19 Cybercab Fleets04:04 Tesla's obsession with Safety 07:27 Everywhere-All-at-Once Fallacy09:33 Uber Shutting Down ATG Was a Mistake12:51 The Gap Between Engineers and the Market16:37 Jason Calacanis on Why Waymo has to Buy a Car Company18:15 Uber's Surge Pricing Strategy19:16 Jason Calacanis' 40/35/15 Robotaxi Prediction25:58 Are Any of Uber's Partners Technically Close to Tesla or Waymo?30:23 Uber Eats is Half of Uber's business32:18 100 Unsupervised Robotaxi Benchmark33:37 Robotaxis in China35:31 Regulatory Capture Debate begins41:31 Steak Dinner Bet49:02 Personally Owned Autonomous Vehicles Impact on Shared Rides52:27 Waymo and Toyota moment to Watch in Q1 2755:30 Puke in Uber, Get a Bonus56:28 Travis Kalanick, CloudKitchens and Atoms58:08 What Travis Kalanick Would do Differently59:09 PIF, Lucid, Nuro and a Full-Stack Uber with-in 36 months1:06:16 Atoms Robotaxi Depot Play1:12:32 If and When Waymo Goes Public1:17:36 Why Japan Needs Autonomy1:20:46 The Next 12 Months1:22:20 The Next Tesla Robotaxi format1:27:42 Autonomous Regional Travel 1:29:47 Amazon, Google or Tesla should Buy Uber1:31:39 Consolidation, First Dominos, Zipline, Wayve and Nuro1:34:52 Framing the BetThe Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy™ powered AUTNMY AI. LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights,
This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Tesla’s Cybercab commercial launch in Austin, Uber’s continued regulatory capture campaign and Waymo’s first ever debt raise.Tesla officially opened Cybercab to the public in Austin on September 3rd, with paid rides across the full operational design domain (ODD) in a vehicle with no steering wheel and no pedals. Grayson and Walt call it a major milestone for the Autonomy Economy, despite a coordinated effort to make the launch look unimportant.The bigger story surrounding the launch, in Grayson’s view, is Tesla’s new form inviting individuals and companies to purchase Cybercab fleets and build and own robotaxi infrastructure. Grayson sees this as a potential franchise model with Tesla’s ability to finance the fleet as a structural advantage.The Financial Times is reporting on Uber’s continued regulatory capture strategy, requiring human drivers to handle the majority of rides as part of a hybrid network strategy. Grayson concludes Uber is under siege from autonomy and reaching for regulatory capture, while Walt notes it also kneecaps Uber’s own autonomy partners.Waymo opened public rides in Denver, San Diego and Tampa, reaching 14 U.S. cities, and is in the final stage of raising roughly $3 billion in debt, its first borrowing.Zoox earns its first clappy hat for curbside pickup and drop-off at Harry Reid International Airport and announced expanded testing to Houston and San Diego. Wayve and Uber launched supervised robotaxi service in London, with Wayve stating plainly that a safety driver is on board while Uber framed it as the first autonomous rides in the UK.On the foreign autonomy desk, Applied Intuition partnered with Humain to build an autonomous freight corridor in Saudi Arabia, DiDi began fully driverless trials of its purpose-built R2 robotaxi with the UAE next, Waymo will deploy in Munich next year against Momenta and Uber, and WeRide’s robobus is operating in Singapore.Episode Chapters0:00 Tesla's Cybercab Launch in Austin 08:38 NHTSA's Probe into Tesla's Self-Certification 15:49 LiDAR Debate 21:42 Tesla's Fleet Ownership Model Questions 26:21 Tempering Expectations on Cybercab Rollout 27:54 Uber's Regulatory Capture Campaign 34:44 Waymo Expands to Denver, San Diego and Tampa 36:33 Waymo's $3 Billion Debt Raise 38:45 Robotaxi Depot Infrastructure 41:08 Zoox Launches Service at Harry Reid International Airport (LAS) 48:40 Wayve and Uber Launch Supervised Rides in London 52:32 Autonomous Trucking 55:22 Foreign Autonomy Desk 1:00:33 Next WeekThe Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy™ powered AUTNMY AI. Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/LightShed Partners is a leading independent research firm focused on the convergence of technology, media, and telecommunications. Known for its forward-thinking insights, LightShed Partners provides in-depth analysis on trends, disruptions, and innovations shaping these industries, offering clients data-driven research to inform investment decisions. The LightShed Podcast, released every Friday, delivers cutting-edge insights into the world of technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT), focusing on key trends and disruptions shaping the future of these industries. Subscribe to the LightShed Podcast for expert commentary on market trends, investment opportunities, and insights driving the TMT sector forward. For access to this paywalled podcast email: team@lightshedtmt.com