Azeem Azhar's Exponential View

Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis and one of my go-to experts on semiconductors and data center infrastructure joins me to discuss AI in 2025. Several key themes emerged about where AI might be headed in 2025:1/ Big Tech’s accelerating CapEx and market adjustmentsThe hyperscalers are racing ahead in capital expenditure, with Microsoft’s annual outlay likely to surpass $80 billion (up from around $15 billion just five years ago). By mid-decade, total annual investments in AI-driven data centers could climb from around $150–200 billion today to $400–500 billion. While these expansions power more advanced models and services, such rapid spending raises questions for investors. Are shareholders ready for ongoing, multi-fold increases in data center build-outs?2/ The competitive landscape and new infrastructure playersThe expected explosion in AI workloads is drawing in a wave of new specialized GPU cloud providers—names like CoreWeave, Niveus, Crusoe—each gunning to become the next vital utility layer of AI compute. Unlike the hyperscalers, these players tap different pools of capital, including real-estate-like finance and private credit, enabling them to ramp up aggressively. This dynamic threatens the established order and could squeeze margins as competition heats up. The market is starting to understand that.3/ The semiconductor supply chain isn’t the only bottleneckWe often talk about GPU shortages, but the real sticking point is broader infrastructural complexity. Yes, Nvidia and TSMC can ramp up chip supply. But even if you have enough high-end silicon, you still need power infrastructure and grid connectivity. Building multi-gigawatt data centers in the US—each the size of a utility-scale power plant—is now firmly on the agenda. In some states, data centers already consume 30% of the grid’s electricity. By 2027, AI data centers alone could account for 10% or more of total US electricity consumption, straining America’s aging infrastructure.4/ Commoditization of models and margin pressureA year ago, advanced language models were scarce and expensive. Today, open-source variants like Llama 3.1 are driving commoditization at speed, slicing away the profit margins of plain-vanilla model-serving. If your model doesn’t outperform the best open source, you’re forced to compete on price—and that’s a race to the bottom. Currently, only a handful of players (OpenAI and Anthropic among them) enjoy meaningful margins. As models proliferate, value will increasingly flow to those offering distinctive tools, integrating closely into enterprise workflows and locking in switching costs.5/ Into 2025: exponential curves and new market normsDespite these challenges—soaring costs, stalled infrastructure build-outs, margin erosion—Dylan is confident that exponential scaling will continue. The sector’s appetite for GPUs, specialized chips and next-gen data centers appears insatiable. We could easily see record-breaking fundraising rounds north of $10 billion for private AI ventures—funded by sovereign wealth funds and other capital pools that have barely scratched the surface of their capacity to invest in AI infrastructure. There’s also a very tangible productivity angle. AI coding assistants continue to reduce the cost of software development. Some software companies could be looking at 20–30% staff reductions in these technical teams as high-level coding becomes automated. This shift, still in its early days, will have profound downstream effects on the entire software ecosystem.Find us:Exponential ViewSemiAnalysis

As we race towards a future powered by AI and data centres, how will the insatiable demand for energy impact the environment? With the richest companies ploughing billions into energy generation, might there be some unexpected upsides for the climate transition? And can exponential technologies address the climate crisis on a finite planet? Cleaning Up host Michael Liebreich sits down with Azeem Azhar, founder of Exponential View, to explore the complex relationship between exponential growth, climate change, and the societal implications of transformative technologies. Michael and Azeem delve into the promises and pitfalls of a future shaped by the rapid advancements in renewable energy, battery storage, and artificial intelligence. This podcast was originally published on Cleaning Up. 

Artificial Intelligence is on every business leader’s agenda. How do we make sense of the fast-moving new developments in AI over the past year? Azeem Azhar returns to bring clarity to leaders who face a complicated information landscape. This week, Azeem speaks with Richard Socher, CEO and founder of You.com, an AI chatbot search engine at the forefront of truthful and verifiable AI. They explore approaches to building AI systems that are both truthful and verifiable. The conversation sheds light on the critical breakthroughs in AI, the technical challenges of ensuring AI’s reliability, and Socher’s vision for the future of search. They also discuss: How AI’s future is tied to advancements in natural language processing. The role of scientific rigor in large language models’ current and future developments. The founding of You.com and its mission to revolutionize search. Predictions for the next big breakthroughs in AI. @azeem @RichardSocher Further resources: Why AI is humanity’s mirror — and what we can learn from it (Richard Socher, TED, 2023) The Promise of AI with Fei-Fei Li (Azeem Azhar, Exponential View, 2020) AI is the real web3 (Azeem Azhar, Exponential View, 2023)

As 2024 begins, leaders are facing increasing uncertainty and a host of difficult decisions. Azeem Azhar returns to bring clarity amid a complicated information landscape, with his analysis of 12 core themes that will shape the year ahead, including AI adoption, geopolitics, decentralization, the energy transition, and more. The discussion specifically touches on: What will drive widespread corporate adoption of AI. How to think about the emergence of new business models around AI. What you need to know about the new wave of decentralization technologies. How leaders should think about an electrified world of stable and declining power prices. @azeem Further resources: The Horizon for 2024: The Biggest Questions on the Horizon (Azeem Azhar, 2024) Notes from a Ski Resort, 2024 Edition (Azeem Azhar, 2024)

Artificial Intelligence is on every business leader’s agenda. How do we make sense of the fast-moving new developments in AI over the past year? Azeem Azhar returns to bring clarity to leaders who face a complicated information landscape. Generative AI has a lot to offer health care professionals and medical scientists. This week, Azeem speaks with renowned cardiologist, scientist, and author Eric Topol about the change he’s observed among his colleagues in the last two years, as generative AI developments have accelerated in medicine. They discuss: The challenges and benefits of AI in health care. The pros and cons of different open-source and closed-source models for health care use. The medical technology that has been even more transformative than AI in the past year. @azeem @erictopol Further resources: When AI Meets Medicine (Exponential View Podcast, 2019) Can AI Catch What Doctors Miss? (Eric Topol, TED, 2023)

Artificial Intelligence is on every business leader’s agenda. How do we make sense of the fast-moving new developments in AI over the past year? Azeem Azhar returns to bring clarity to leaders who face a complicated information landscape. This week, Azeem joins Sasha Luccioni, an AI researcher and climate lead at Hugging Face, to shed light on the environmental footprint and other immediate impacts of AI, and how they compare to more long-term challenges. They cover: The energy consumption and carbon impact of AI models — and how researchers have gone about measuring it. The tangible economic and social impacts of AI, and how focusing on existential risks now hurt our chances of addressing the immediate risks of AI deployment. How regulation and governance could evolve to address the most pressing questions of the industry. @azeem @SashaMTL Further resources: Power Hungry Processing: Watt’s Driving the Cost of AI Deployment (Alexandra Sasha Luccioni et al, 2023) The Open-Source Future of Artificial Intelligence (Exponential View, 2023) AI is Dangerous, But Not For the Reasons You Think (TED, Sasha Luccioni, 2023)

Artificial Intelligence is on every business leader’s agenda. How do we make sense of the fast-moving new developments in AI over the past year? Azeem Azhar returns to bring clarity to leaders who face a complicated information landscape. This week, Azeem joins Alex Kendall, co-founder and CEO of autonomous driving start-up Wayve, to uncover how the AI revolution is enabling new strides in self-driving. They delve into the implications of these advancements for urban mobility and the transformation of cities in the future. They discuss: How business models in the automotive industry are shifting towards AI integration and subscription-based services. The role “embodied AI” is playing in shaping everyday assistance, beyond just digital interactions, in the future. The challenges and breakthroughs of applying AI in complex, unpredictable environments, like road traffic. @azeem @alexgkendall Further resources: Ride the Wayve: Azeem Azhar Goes for an Autonomous Drive on London’s Toughest Roads (Wayve, 2023) UK Start-up Wayve Unveils Self-Driving System that Explains Its Actions (Financial Times, 2023)

Artificial Intelligence is on every business leader’s agenda. How do we make sense of the fast-moving new developments in AI over the past year? Azeem Azhar returns to bring clarity to leaders who face a complicated information landscape. Organizations across the world have been grappling with the opportunities and challenges of generative AI. This week, Azeem joins AI pioneer and entrepreneur Andrew Ng to discuss the intricacies of this moment and debate whether we’re at an inflection point in the AI revolution. They consider: What have organizations learned about AI, and what common mistakes have they made implementing it? What does it mean to be at an inflection point in the AI revolution? How can regulation support the development of AI? @azeem @AndrewYNg Further resources: Andrew Ng: How to Be an Innovator (MIT Technology Review, 2023) An Update on the Latest Research on Generative AI and Work (Exponential View, 2023) Creating an AI-First Business, with Andrew Ng (Exponential View Podcast, 2019)

Artificial Intelligence is on every business leader’s agenda. How do we make sense of the fast-moving new developments in AI over the past year? In new episodes released throughout December and January, Azeem Azhar returns to bring clarity to leaders who face a complicated information landscape. This week, Azeem speaks with Aravind Srinivas, the co-founder and CEO of Perplexity.ai, about the looming challenges in AI research and product development, such as user-centric design and the importance of open-source models. They discuss: AI as a tool for democratizing information access. The “innovator’s dilemma” for Google Search. Whether or not conversational interfaces will become the norm for how we interact with AI. The array of interests shaping the AI regulation debate. @azeem @AravSrinivas Further resources: How Perplexity.ai Is Pioneering The Future Of Search (Forbes, 2023) AI’s First Flight: An Early Milestone in Generalised Intelligence? (Exponential View, 2023)

Artificial Intelligence is on every business leader’s agenda. How do we make sense of the fast-moving new developments in AI over the past year? Azeem Azhar returns to bring clarity to leaders who face a complicated information landscape. In new episodes released throughout December and January, Azeem and other AI experts will address questions like: What really matters when it comes to AI? How do you ensure the AI systems you deploy are harmless and trustworthy? How can we find the signal amidst so much noise? The upheaval at OpenAI sent shockwaves through the tech world. Karen Hao, a contributing writer who covers AI at The Atlantic, joins Azeem Azhar to break down the ideologies and power struggles within OpenAI and their implications for the development of artificial intelligence. She also explains how these internal conflicts reflect broader challenges in AI development and governance. They discuss: The ideological schism within OpenAI and the deep-rooted divides that have influenced the organization’s approach to AI safety and development. How OpenAI’s mission and its execution reflect broader power dynamics in the tech industry. The potential impact of this event on the future of AI and regulatory considerations. @azeem @_karenhao Further resources: Inside the Chaos at OpenAI (The Atlantic, 2023) Sam Altman and the Board of Secrets (Exponential View, 2023)

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is on every business leader’s agenda. How do you ensure the AI systems you deploy are harmless and trustworthy? This month, Azeem picks some of his favorite conversations with leading AI safety experts to help you break through the noise. Today’s pick is Azeem’s 2020 conversation with the pioneering AI scientist Fei-Fei Li, professor of computer science at Stanford University and the founding co-director of Stanford’s Human-Centered AI Institute. They discuss: How Fei-Fei Li’s work on computer vision led to the transformation of AI development. Why we should rethink human and machine value systems. How the road to artificial general intelligence (AGI) could help us learn more about human cognition.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is on every business leader’s agenda. How do you ensure the AI systems you deploy are harmless and trustworthy? This month, Azeem picks some of his favorite conversations with leading AI safety experts to help you break through the noise. Today’s pick is Azeem’s 2021 conversation with veteran AI scientist Murray Shanahan, professor of cognitive robotics at Imperial College London and principal scientist at DeepMind. They discuss: Why some aspects of AI progress depend on embodied interaction. Understanding from where the major breakthroughs in the field may come. Why the salary inflation for commercial AI engineers might hinder research. Further resources: Role Play with Large Language Models (Murray Shanahan et al., 2023) Demis Hassabis on DeepMind’s Journey from Games to Fundamental Science (Exponential View, 2019)

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is on every business leader’s agenda. How do you ensure the AI systems you deploy are harmless and trustworthy? This month, Azeem picks some of his favorite conversations with leading AI safety experts to help you break through the noise. Today’s pick is Azeem’s conversation with Joanna Bryson, a leading expert on the questions of AI governance and the impact of technology on human cooperation. They discuss: The concept of intelligence and AI as a “cognitive prosthetic.” The scale of development and the benefits of developing AI. The problem of explainability in AI systems. Further resources: A Very Short Primer on AI & IP, including Copyright (Joanna Bryson Blog, 2023) Inside the Loop: AI May Launch a Race No-one Can Afford to Lose (Azeem Azhar, 2023)

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is on every business leader’s agenda. How do you ensure the AI systems you deploy are harmless and trustworthy? This month, Azeem picks some of his favorite conversations with leading AI safety experts to help you break through the noise. Today’s pick is Azeem’s conversation with Meredith Whittaker, president of the Signal Foundation. Meredith is a co-founder and chief advisor of the AI Now Institute, an independent research group looking at the social impact of artificial intelligence. They discuss: How discriminatory culture influences the values embedded in AI. Whether ethics officers can actually influence firms and their products. Why responsible AI design must include recognition of the shadow workforce helping to create it.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is on every business leader’s agenda. How do you ensure the AI systems you deploy are harmless and trustworthy? This month, Azeem picks some of his favorite conversations with leading AI safety experts to help you break through the noise. Today’s pick is Azeem’s conversation with Dr. Rumman Chowdhury, a pioneer in the field of applied algorithmic ethics. She runs Parity Consulting, the Parity Responsible Innovation Fund, and she’s a Responsible AI Fellow at the Berkman Klein Center for Internet & Society at Harvard University. They discuss: How you can assess and diagnose bias in unexplainable “black box” algorithms. Why responsible AI demands top-down organizational change, implementing new metrics, and systems of redress. More details on the emerging field of “Responsible Machine Learning Operations”. Further resources: TIME100AI: Rumman Chowdhury Building an AI We Can Trust with Anthropic’s Dario Amodei (Exponential View, 2023) “‘I do not think ethical surveillance can exist’: Rumman Chowdhury on accountability in AI” (The Guardian, May 2023)

Never before has it been harder for leaders to make sense of what’s going on in the world. As exponential technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) march on, the ability to make future-proof decisions is all the more important for leaders. Azeem Azhar’s new TV show and podcast, Exponentially with Azeem Azhar (created in partnership with Bloomberg Originals), goes beyond mainstream conversations about technology to explore new ways of thinking about our collective future. In eight episodes, released weekly starting September 6, Azeem speaks with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, co-founder and CEO of Anthropic Dario Amodei, and legendary Silicon Valley investor Vinod Khosla, among others. They discuss questions such as: What does it mean to legally own your thoughts, and why may we want that to happen soon? Could AI reduce global inequality by boosting productivity in the Global South? What assumptions do we need to change about conflict to avoid a second Cold War? @azeem @exponentialview

In his brief commentary, Azeem Azhar discusses the increasing complexity and capabilities of large language models (LLMs) and the transformative potential they hold. Just as the Copernican Revolution forced us to reassess our understanding of the universe and led to numerous societal and scientific changes, Azeem proposes that rapid advancements in AI could lead to a similar paradigm shift that challenges established norms and systems. @azeem @exponentialview Further resources: Exponential LLMs and the Copernican Moment, Azeem Azhar, 2023

In his brief commentary, Azeem Azhar lays out why the future of the Web is underpinned by AI, and what this means for the traditional business model of the internet. He considers whether there will be a single dominant player, like Google in Web 2.0, or a more fragmented landscape, as in social media? @azeem @exponentialview Further resources: AI is the Real Web3, Azeem Azhar, 2023

In his brief commentary, Azeem Azhar shares his outlook on how artificial intelligence could change the labor market, drawing on research published by Goldman Sachs, titled “The Potentially Large Effect of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth.” The paper suggests a positive impact on economic growth, alongside a shift to automation that could affect two-thirds of US occupations. Twitter: @azeem @exponentialview Further resources: The Potentially Large Effect of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth, Goldman Sachs, March 2023 After AI, Where Will the Jobs Come From? Azeem Azhar 2023 The Future of AI in the Workplace: A Survey of American Managers, 2023

Drawing on Carlota Perez’s framework, Azeem Azhar considers whether large language models (LLMs), such as OpenAI’s GPT-4, will drive a paradigm shift across our economies. His discussion touches on LLMs’ wide applications, their reliance on affordable computation and digital data, and their compatibility with existing and potential future digital infrastructures. Twitter: @azeem @exponentialview Further resources: LLMs and Technological Revolutions, Azeem Azhar 2023 Technological Revolutions and Techno-Economic Paradigms, Carlota Perez, 2010