BG2Pod with Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, guest host Altimeter’s Apoorv Agrawal explores how OpenAI is reshaping enterprise with Sherwin Wu, Head of Engineering OpenAI Platform, and Olivier Godement, Head of Product OpenAI Platform. From T-Mobile’s AI voice support to Amgen’s drug breakthroughs to Los Alamos’ air-gapped supercomputer—this episode dives into the real world of AI at scale. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:50) OpenAI’s Enterprise Mission: Beyond ChatGPT(06:00) Case Study: T-Mobile <> Voice & Support (11:30) Case Study: Amgen <> Accelerating Drug Development(13:45) Case Study: Los Alamos National Lab (17:00) Why 95% of AI Deployments Fail?(20:30) Physical vs Digital Autonomy: Scaffolding & Infrastructure(26:00) GPT-5: Release, Benchmarks vs Behavior(30:00) GPT-5 Feedback: Instruction Following, Hallucinations, Code Quality(33:00) Multimodality: Text, Voice, and Video(35:30) Audio: Realtime API vs Stitched Audio(38:00) Model Customization & Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT)(43:00) Rapid Fire: Long/Short Picks (1:03:00) Highlights and Lowlights @ OpenAIShow Notes:T-Mobile Partnership: https://www.t-mobile.com/news/business/t-mobile-launches-intentcx-with-openaiAmgen Partnership: https://openai.com/index/gpt-5-amgen/Los Alamos Partnership: https://www.lanl.gov/media/news/0130-open-aiMIT AI Report: https://mlq.ai/media/quarterly_decks/v0.1_State_of_AI_in_Business_2025_Report.pdfProduced by Dan ShevchukMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcapBill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2PodApoorv Agrawal @apoorv03 https://x.com/apoorv03Sherwin Wu @sherwinwu https://x.com/sherwinwuOlivier Godement @oliviergodement  https://x.com/oliviergodement

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they dive deep into China’s explosive innovation across AI and EVs, the rise of open-source models, lessons for U.S. competitiveness, the real story on tariffs and trade—and what America must do to win the global tech race. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:20) OpenAI, Anthropic, Private Market Overheating(03:30) China's Role in the Global Tech Order(04:50) Why Bill Went to China(06:40) Dan Wang's Breakneck: Engineers vs Lawyers(10:30) Xiaomi, BYD, and Auto Innovation(14:00) Factory Productivity, Automation, and the Jobs Debate(15:20) Open Source Model Culture in China(19:30) Can the US Compete Without Reform?(23:30) Tariffs, Trade Deals, and a Path to Cooperation(28:00) Waymo, Baidu, and Cost Innovation(33:00) Is China Winning Global Trade?(36:30) Debunking the Subsidy Narrative(38:30) What the CEOs Who Visit China Actually Say(41:30) China's AI Ecosystem: DeepSeek, Qwen, Alibaba Cloud(44:00) Open Source in China and the US: Strategic Choices(48:00) VC Pullback from China & What's Still Happening on the Ground(53:00) China's New K-Visa vs US Skilled Immigration Policies(56:30) Gurley: Read Dan Wang’s Breakneck, Watch the Ground Game(01:03:00) VC Pullback from ChinaShow Notes:Open Source Development in China https://merics.org/sites/default/files/2021-05/MERICS%20Primer%20Open%20Source%202021_0.pdfLei Jun 2024 Annual Speech: https://www.youtube.com/live/l5f3wvLwLXYProduced by Dan ShevchukMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcapBill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss open-source models in China and the US, the compute arms race, tariffs and the reordering of global trade, and more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(3:55) Open-Source Models in China(17:54) Future of American Open-Source Models(26:30) Compute Arms Race(47:05) China, Tariffs, and Reordering of Global TradeShow Notes:Artificial Analysis - Intelligence vs. PriceMary Meeker Bond Deck Produced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they welcome Michael Dell  to discuss the Invest America Act, lessons learned from the 90’s, government spending, budget deficit, the AI talent war, AI's Role in Economic Growth and Productivity, the explosion in AI compute and demand, the markets, and more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(4:13) Lessons from the 90’s at Dell(8:37) Invest America Act Signed Into Law(27:12) Government Spending and Budget Deficit(36:05) The AI Talent War (46:25) AI's Role in Economic Growth and Productivity(53:42) AI Compute–Explosion in Demand(1:03:53) Market CheckShow Notes:Invest AmericaNext Gen Personal FinancePlay Nice But Win: A CEO's Journey from Founder to LeaderMilken Institute: The Economic Impact of Invest America AccountsProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2podMichael Dell @MichaelDell

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, recording from the Coatue East Meets West stage, they welcome OpenAI CPO Kevin Weil to discuss all things OpenAI. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Show Notes:Coatue EMW 2025 SlidesProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyKevin Weil @kevinweilBG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they welcome Coatue’s Thomas and Philippe Laffont to discuss the AI Super cycle, Stablecoin and crypto, consumer AI, NVIDIA GPU’s, Macroeconomics, publc markets, VC markets, M&A’s, insights for founders and CEO’s, and more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:36) The AI Super Cycle(07:47) Stablecoin & Cryptocurrency(16:19) Consumer AI & Impact on $GOOG(22:54) GPU Allocation v Cloud Revenue Market Share(28:56) AI Impact on Macro + Debt(35:20) Private Markets, IPO’s, M&A’s(45:59) Golden Age of Margin Expansion(51:48) Jevon’s Paradox(53:19) Insights for Founders and CEOsShow Notes:Coatue EMW 2025 SlidesProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcapBill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss the pace of AI and data walls, China’s startups, immigration and talent acquisition, rare earths, chips, China trade deal, corporate governance, Delaware incorporation rights, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(04:24) Pace of AI + Data Walls(11:43) China's 1000 Startup Strategy(26:18) Talent Acquisition and Immigration Policies(36:24) Rare Earths, Chips / China Trade Deal(53:46) Corporate Governance and Delaware DilemnaShow Notes:Reddit v. AnthropicChina’s “Thousand Startups Bloom”Produced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss the overturning of the AI Diffusion Rule, Brad’s trip to the Middle East, Middle East Deals, China Tariffs, Reconciliation Bill, Invest America, Delaware Incorporation Rights, Momentum in Crypto, Open Source AI in China, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:02) AI Diffusion Rule and Middle East Deals(20:31) China Tariff Deal (31:10) Reconciliation Bill(44:06) Invest America inclusion in the bill(49:09) Delaware Incorporation Rights(59:51) Major Momentum in Crypto(01:06:28) Open Source AI in China Show Notes:WSJ - The Tech Industry Is Huge–and Europe’s Share of It Is Very SmallWelcome to the China Hawk Industrial ComplexChina's Baidu to make latest Ernie AI model open-source as competition heats upLodestar Multipliers in Delaware and Federal Attorney Fee AwardsProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcapBill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they revisit arguments about free trade, and discuss updates on tariff negotiations, export controls, the new AI cold war, NVIDIA H20 chip ban, rare earth ban, DeepSeek, Tesla, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:15) Complex Systems(06:00) Tariff Negotiations & Free Trade(23:19) Export Controls: AI War, H20 & Rare Earth Ban(42:29) New AI Cold War & Zero Sum Game(52:37) $TSLA & Market CheckShow Notes:Financial Times - US rare earth champion faces trade war test after tariffs halt China salesCNBC - U.S. chip controls will benefit China’s Nvidia rivals like Huawei: AnalystsProject Syndicate - Trump’s $16 Trillion Trade Blind SpotNYTimes - I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America (Thomas L. Friedman)Ezra Klein Podcast feat. Thomas FriedmanJohn Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024Reuters - China hits back at US tariffs with export controls on key rare earthsNYTimes - Nvidia Says U.S. Will Restrict Sales of More of Its A.I. Chips to ChinaProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss market uncertainty, globalism and tariffs, M&A, Wiz and GOOG, NVDA GTC, consumer AI demand, AI unit economics, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:20) Liberation Day & Tariffs(19:18) US Open Source vs China Open Source(34:34) OpenAI Fundraise(52:25) Coreweave IPO & AI Demand(01:04:03) Rumors on TikTok dealProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss market uncertainty, globalism and tariffs, M&A, Wiz and GOOG, NVDA GTC, consumer AI demand, AI unit economics, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:21) Market Uncertainty(07:28) Globalism and Tariff Policies(25:07) $GOOG Acquisition of Wiz + M&A Environment (40:33) $NVDA Market Position(55:37) Government Regulations & Impact on AI(1:04:45) Consumer AI Demand(1:10:33) AI Unit EconomicsProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss Grok 3, AI memory, voice, and evaluations, China, DOGE, the public market pullback, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:40) Grok 3(05:55) Grok’s Leverage of X Platform(07:25) AI Consumer Market & SEO(23:04) AI Memory(26:15) AI Voice(29:05) Future AI Assets(33:29) AI Acceleration in China(36:09) Regulatory Challenges(37:46) AI CapEx and Investing Dynamics(48:38) Government Spending + DOGE(1:00:51) Golden State WarriorsProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss DeepSeek, globalism vs national interests, Trump tariffs, open source, DOGE, & more. . Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(03:20) DeepSeek & Open Source(37:03) Trump Tariffs(50:31) DOGE(01:04:19) Tech and Political UncertaintyProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcapBill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by a surprise guest, and discuss Stargate, executive orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:21) Stargate(15:07) Dylan Patel and Semianalysis take on Stargate(17:56) Stargate’s Impact on AI Competitive Landscape(29:03) DeepSeek(32:03) Special Guest Rene Haas (CEO of ARM Holdings)(49:46) DeepSeek continued(51:53) Trumps Executive Orders & Regulatory Freeze(54:10) Coordination in AI Legistlation(59:38) US National Debt and Balancing the Budget(1:01:08) TikTok(1:05:48) Tech CheckProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyRene Haas @renehaas237BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss Brad’s public market predictions, AI enthusiasm and fears, interest rates, inflation, DOGE, federal budget analysis, big tech capex, scaling inference, Satya Nadella, Jensen Huang, Elon Musk, AI reasoning models, chain of thought,  & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:58) Frontline Ideas for 2025(07:02) The Bogeyman (Interest Rates and Inflation)(09:21) Mega Cap Valuations & Expectations(14:02) Big Tech CapEx(16:51) Scaling Inference(20:11) Future of AI(39:50) Role of Power in AI Development(42:58) Interest Rates & Economic Growth(45:11) Federal Spending & DOGE(54:15) Regulatory Landscape for AI(01:01:27) Co-opetition in AI(01:17:06) Reasoning Models & Chain of ThoughtProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Dylan Patel, Founder & Chief Analyst at SemiAnalysis, to discuss origins of SemiAnalysis, Google's AI workload, NVIDIA's competitive edge, the shift to GPUs in data centers, the challenges of scaling AI pre-training, synthetic data generation, hyperscaler capital expenditures, the paradox of building bigger clusters despite claims that pretraining is obsolete, inference-time compute, NVIDIA's comparison to Cisco, evolving memory technology, chip competition, future predictions, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:50) Dylan Patel Backstory(02:36) SemiAnalysis Backstory(04:18) Google's AI Workload(06:58) NVIDIA's Edge(10:59) NVIDIA's Incremental Differentiation(13:12) Potential Vulnerabilities for NVIDIA(17:18) The Shift to GPUs: What It Means for Data Centers(22:29) AI Pre-training Scaling Challenges(29:43) If Pretraining Is Dead, Why Bigger Clusters?(34:00) Synthetic Data Generation(36:26) Hyperscaler CapEx(38:12) Pre-training and Inference-tIme Reasoning(41:00) Cisco Comparison to NVIDIA(44:11) Inference-time Compute(53:18) The Future of AI Models and Market Dynamics(01:00:58) Evolving Memory Technology(01:06:46) Chip Competition(01:07:18) AMD(01:10:35) Google’s TPU(01:14:51) Amason’s Tranium(01:17:33) Predictions for 2025 and 2026Produced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyDylan Patel @dylan522pBG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, to discuss becoming Microsoft’s CEO, Advice for CEO’s, Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI, Legacy Search, Ten Blue Links, Consumer and Enterprise AI, The Future of AI Agents, Infinite Memory, CoPilot, Microsoft’s Capital Expenditure, Open AI’s future, AI safety & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:31) Becoming Microsoft CEO(06:42) Satya’s Memo to CEO Committee(10:42) Satya’s Advantage as a CEO(11:34) Advice for CEOs(15:01) Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI(19:42) AI Arms Race(23:55) Legacy Search and Consumer AI(28:07) The Future of AI Agents(38:32) Near-Infinite Memory(39:47) Copilot Approach to AI Adoption(50:26) Leveraging AI within Microsoft(56:03) CapX(01:00:20) The Cost of Model Scaling and Inference(01:15:15) Open AI Conversion to Profit(01:18:05) Next Steps for OpenAI(01:19:43) Open vs. Closed and Safe AIProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they get in the Thanksgiving spirit, and discuss China, DOGE, Governor Newsom’s EV Tax Credit, Service Titan IPO, FedNow, Tariffs, Anthropic Open Source, Warren Buffet’s Thanksgiving letter, Conspiracy Theories, Invest America, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(01:40) Innovation in China & U.S. Competitiveness(05:43) DOGE & Balancing the Budget(10:43) Service Titan IPO & “Compounding Ratchet”(15:36) Gov Newsom Attack on Tesla(18:33) FedNow + Innovations in Payment Systems(23:44) Tariffs as Negotiation Tactics(27:36) Anthropic Open Source AI(30:39) Warren Buffett's Philanthropy(40:06) Invest AmericaProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss AI Scaling Laws, the future of inference, AI memory and actions, National Full Self-Driving Regulations, FSD 13, Robotaxi and Waymo, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(02:00) AI Scaling Laws(05:54) Implications of AI Scaling Trends(12:20) The Future of Inference and Data Quality(17:51) AI Memory and Actions(21:47) National Full Self-Driving Regulation(23:14) FSD 13(29:41) Market Disruption: Winners and Losers in the Auto Industry(31:18) The Future of OEM’s(40:41) Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)(54:47) Tech Market CheckProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcapBill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Jamin Ball (Partner at Altimeter) to discuss the state of venture capital and incentives, implications of overcapitalization, the future of power law returns, AI’s impact on investment strategies, the future of AI and CapEx, the market’s reactions to the 2024 election, the evolution of search and AI integration, Nasa, SpaceX, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.Timestamps:(00:00) Intro(00:52) Bill’s Dad | from Nasa to SpaceX(06:20) State of VC and Incentives w/ Jamin Ball(12:31) Implications of Overcapitalization(25:08) The Future of Power Law Returns(38:28) The Impact of AI on Investment Strategies(46:00) Future of AI and Capital Expenditure(52:21) Market Reactions to 2024 Election(01:00:45) Evolution of Search and AI IntegrationProduced by Benny BeausoleilMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcapBill Gurley @bgurleyBG2 Pod @bg2podJamin Ball @jaminball⁠Shownotes Clouded Judgement Substack#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod