Beyond Markets

In this episode of Beyond Markets, Carsten Menke and Norbert Rucker, Next Generation Research experts at Julius Baer, discuss the boom in AI and data centres and what this means for energy and the econom

The S&P fell 2% last week, but it is still 1.5% higher following the Donald Trump’s victory at the 2024 US presidential election. Serious change looks set to be coming under a second Trump administration. The new administration will implement a libertarian vision, which includes economic freedom, and thus a push for freer markets, and a leaner and more efficient government promised by the new “Department of Government Efficiency” limits the risk of unproductive allocation of capital. On inflation and interest rates, the October consumer and producer price inflation numbers both came out hotter than expected. The most recent initial jobless claims reading was also at the lowest since May. Such developments call into question the narrative that interest rates are going to continue declining at the faster pace expected a few months ago. This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The past week has been marked by three major global events: the US presidential election, Federal Reserve meeting and the National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting in China. In this episode, Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, breaks down each of these developments and the impact on the global economy and investments.

US stocks surged after Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential election victory — but what does this mean for the future of the markets?In this episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and William Fong, Co-Head, Alternatives & Strategic Solutions Asia at Julius Baer, explore their outlook on equities, bonds, and other key asset classes, examining where opportunities and risks may lie ahead.(00:00) - Intro (00:19) - A strong mandate for Trump (01:23) - US equities surge post-results (02:20) - Does the equity bull market have legs? (03:10) - Antitrust on Big Tech - What now? (04:20) - Strong outlook for equities (06:11) - Sharp moves in Treasury yields (08:35) - Will the Fed continue on its interest rate path? (09:40) - The future of an independent Fed and Powell (11:53) - What's driving the Dollar? (13:06) - Impact of tariffs vs. potential bigger fiscal deficit (14:03) - Quick thoughts - Gold, crypto, large/mid-caps, oil & gas, renewable energy,  EVs, healthcare, banks, defence, China, Japan, Germany (20:12) - Summary

In this monthly China update, our experts discuss the recent shift in sentiment around Chinese equities, expected policy changes from the National People's Congress meeting, and the critical factors in solving China's structural challenges. They also examine the implications of a Trump or Harris presidency on China's economy and global supply chains, as well as the outlook for the Chinese Yuan and gold. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities analyst Jen-Ai Chua provides an in-depth look at the current landscape as we approach this week’s US Presidential election. We also explore the factors supporting potential upside for stocks, including strong year-end seasonality, anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and corporate earnings continuing to hold up.

US equities and gold continue to make new historical highs, while markets approach a pivotal period with major upcoming events. From key Q3 US earnings reports, the US Presidential election to China’s NPC congress and the aftermath of Japan’s general election. What are the investment implications of these events and how can investors navigate the uncertainties ahead? This episode is presented by Eric Mak from the Equity Research Asia team at Julius Baer.

In this episode, we take a look at the US fixed income markets coming out of the third quarter of 2024, and what to expect in this space as we near the November 5 US presidential election. We also briefly discuss how other G10 and Emerging Market central banks have shifted following the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut in September. It’s a different story in China, however, with its central bank just announcing reductions in the Loan Prime Rates. This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

After a strong September for equities, the question now is if we can expect a year-end rally. An analysis of the charts provides a clear answer. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about the significance of the steepening yield curve and the depreciating US dollar for equities, as well as which regions and sectors are set to outperform over the remainder of the year.00:38 – Introduction to speakers and topic01:00 – What is technical analysis?03:03 – What do September’s equity market returns mean for the rest of the year?04:34 – What does a depreciating US dollar mean for equities?06:02 – How significant is the steepening yield curve?07:46 – Which regions are set to perform better?08:30 – What’s next for Chinese equities?09:35 – Which sectors should do well now?10:25 – After reaching new all-time highs, how is gold set to perform now?11:30 – Closing remarksWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, we provide a review of the latest press conference of China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), how investors see it and the outlook of the Chinese equity market going forward.  We also briefly discuss the latest outlook of the Fed interest rate, the implications of the US Presidential election and the ongoing reporting season. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of​ Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer.  

As we move into Q4 2024, gold prices continue their remarkable climb, while oil faces a more uncertain future amid heightened geopolitical tensions. What’s fueling these divergent trends in two of the world’s most important commodities, and where could they be headed next?Join Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia, and Norbert Ruecker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, as they offer expert analysis and insights on the key factors shaping the markets for gold and oil.00:19 Introduction00:41 Our gold and oil forecast01:55 Are geopolitics flare ups driving up gold prices?2:52 Asia and Western demand3:46 The impact of central bank gold holdings5:04 Why has gold continued to rise despite China’s pause in gold purchases6:02 Speculative gold positioning7:18 Significant redemptions in Western ETFs8:15 Where can gold go in a rate easing cycle?9:25 Recession risks10:20 Geopolitical noise impacting oil11:00 Escalating conflict – where can oil go?12:42 China’s stimulus – is there upside for oil?14:01 The supply and demand picture

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua highlights how stronger than expected non-farm payrolls data has spooked US markets, while the much awaited press conference by China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) on Tuesday disappointed. More economic data releases in upcoming weeks should provide greater clarity as to the likelihood of ‘no landing’ in the US and the slowdown in China. We expect the Asian REITs to continue doing well as expectations of lower rates remain intact.This episode was recorded on October 8, 2024

In this episode we are joined by Damien Ng, one of Julius Baer’s next generation analysts, to discuss the background and economic significance of obesity drugs.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, we discuss the newly elected Japan Prime Minister and the market response, as well as how his potential policies affect our investment thesis in Japan equities. For the Chinese market, we share a few data points on how strong inflows have been, why we think the tactical rally may extend and what this means for investors.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, the China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer.

In this monthly China update, our experts analyse if the big rally in China equities has legs, following last Tuesday's "bazooka" policy announcements from China's central bank. They also take a closer look at recent trading flows and discuss what trends can be expected in currencies and stocks.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

The Chinese financial regulators recently announced a series of monetary measures with an aim of supporting the economy. In this podcast, we discuss how effective the policies are, whether this is just another bounce or if it marks the beginning of a sustainable rally, and what this means for investors.This podcast is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong for Julius Baer.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, we discuss the outlook of the US interest rate path after the larger-than-expected 50 basis points cut and the implications for different assets. We also comment on the recent bounce of the offshore Chinese equity market and our strategy around that.​This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China strategist and Head​ of Research Hong Kong for Bank Julius Baer.

At the much-anticipated US Federal Reserve meeting on 18 September 2024, the monetary policy easing cycle finally began in the US with an announcement of a 50 basis point rate cut. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, and Mischa Anand, Julius Baer’s Head of Advisory in Zurich, talk to Helen Freer about the significance of the Fed’s latest interest rate decision, what it means for the economy and the implications for investors.00:39 – Introduction to the topic and the speakers01:10 – Was a 50bp cut by the Fed appropriate?04:06 – What does the rate cut mean for the economy and investors?08:53 – Given a recession is not our base case, what is our macroeconomic outlook?13:03 – What about the outlook for equities now that the Fed easing cycle has started?15:06 - Does this mean we’re likely to see volatility ahead?17:14 - Where does the Fed go from here?20:08 – How significant is the start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle for other central banks and the rest of the world?23:07 - Closing remarksWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

We expect volatility in equity markets to remain elevated as we head towards the end of the year, amidst uncertainty around the upcoming US election, seasonal factors, and lingering fears of an economic slowdown. It therefore seems timely to look at what our analysts take into account when it comes to stock selection.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writer, talks to Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, about how his team approaches the process of stock selection, what sectors they favour currently, and the subsectors that are set to offer good investment opportunities in the coming months.00:32 – Introduction to the topic and the speakers01:16 – Our approach to stock selection02:33 – Market Outlook into year-end 202404:13 – Information Technology: our preferences06:27 – Healthcare: more than just large-cap pharma09:06 – Industrials: focus on cyclical & structural growth opportunities11:22 – Opportunities across sectors12:01 - US election outcome - implications for stocks13:33 – Summary and conclusionWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 index had its worst week of the year on the idea that the economy was weakening. Last week was its best week of the year, on the idea the Federal Reserve might cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the traditional 25, when it meets this Wednesday. Expectations have changed following two articles in the Wall Street Journal raising the prospect for a 50 basis point cut, and comments from three former Fed officials who each made a case for a 50 basis point cut. In July, the consensus was looking for Q3 S&P 500 index annual earnings growth of almost 7%. Now it’s looking for just 4%. However, the pace of growth is expected to improve thereafter; to 11% in Q4, and 13% and 14% respectively in Q1 and Q2 of next year.