Beyond Markets

Germany’s surprise €500bn infrastructure plan marks a historic break from fiscal restraint, shaking up markets and boosting European stocks.Meanwhile, US economic uncertainty under Trump is fueling recession fears, pushing Treasury yields down and challenging USD strength.We also break down Japan’s bond market surge and what it means for global investors.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer.

The initial read of the third session of China's 14th National People Congress has been generally in line with economist expectations. Concurrently, ongoing shifts in US policies, especially on tariffs, continue to disrupt the broader macro narrative. Surprisingly, Hong Kong stocks have rallied steadily amidst these developments, whilst US stocks have reacted much more negatively. What is our outlook for these markets, and what does it mean for the US dollar? This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research for Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group. This episode was recorded on 6 March, 2025.

An unprecedented clash between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump at the White House last Friday has called into question the strength of the US-Europe relations. Investors are also watching several other key macro events this week – potential additional tariffs from the US on China, Canada and Mexico, as well as China’s “Two Sessions” annual meetings taking place on March 5 and 6. This episode is presented by Eric Mak from the Equity Research Asia team at Julius Baer.

With inflation expectations rising, credit spreads at historical tights, and US Treasury moves dictating market sentiment, how should investors position their portfolios? In this episode, Elaine Ngim, Head of Investment Advisory Singapore at Julius Baer sits down with Jonathan Liang, Head of Fixed Income Investment Specialists, Asia ex-Japan at JP Morgan Asset Management and Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research at Julius Baer to break down the top-of-mind issues in fixed income markets and the corporate credit landscape today. Key topics include:(01:42) - How inflation expectations impact credit markets (04:32) - The outlook for credit spreads – are we due for a widening? (06:16) - Does investment success hinge on getting the US Treasury view right? (08:22) - The US dollar’s strength and its implications for emerging markets (09:49) - Why active management is critical in volatile bond markets (12:12) - Managing volatility to achieve better risk-adjusted returns (13:03) - The evolving role of CDS (13:40) - Lessons from past market drawdowns (14:38) - Common misconceptions about credit investing (16:25) - Key takeaways for equity-focused investors

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua discusses the implications of two European-centric developments – the freshly concluded German Federal Elections which has returned the conservatives to power, and the growing likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. Both developments are positive for risk, with equities – in particular, cyclical stocks – likely to benefit. Looking ahead, Nvidia’s Q4 2024 earnings numbers, and US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price data, are both scheduled for release in the coming week. Whether they meet, miss or beat will determine if markets can end February on a positive note.

European stock markets have excelled so far this year but to what extent does this reflect the continent’s economic health and what is the outlook for investing in Europe going forward? In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Chief Economist at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about how he expects inflation in Europe to develop, the European Central Bank’s next steps, and what impact US President Trump’s threat of tariffs might have on the region. They also discuss potential opportunities for investors.00:37 Introduction01:01 Europe’s economy – lack of competitiveness has created downward pressure on wages03:13 Expectations from the ECB05:12 Underlying inflation pressure is weakening06:53 Will a bigger interest rate differential lead to a weaker euro?08:20 Tariff threats and what it means for Europe10:10 Is the lack of competitiveness in Europe partly due to the euro?11:46 What factors may lead to an improvement in the European economy?14:00 Potential opportunities for investors15:28 The automotive industry16:59 Will geopolitics create more challenges or opportunities for Europe?19:15 How significant is the upcoming German election and what could a new government focus on?20:46 SummaryWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Inputs from US inflation indices released last week infer a January core Personal Consumption Expenditure reading of 0.27% month on month, lower than the 0.3% the consensus expects. January retail sales fell 0.9%, the largest decline since March 2023. Together, these data should reverse talk that rates would have to go up again this year. US President Donald Trump is now talking about reciprocal tariffs, which would be much less punitive than the 25% on Canada and Mexico he had been talking about before. US and Russian officials say they will start talks on ending the war in Ukraine in coming days. Reuters reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping will chair a symposium to boost private sector sentiment this week that will be attended by the big technology company founders/CEOs.

With a mixed set of US jobs data last week, investors are looking to this week’s inflation numbers and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony for clearer guidance on the Fed’s next steps. In China, optimism is rising with DeepSeek’s disruption of the AI sector and better-than-feared impact from Trump’s tariffs. We also discuss the role of Gold and Bitcoin in risk hedging.This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research for Hong Kong at Julius Baer.

In addition to the typical seasonal tailwinds from the Chinese New Year, three key factors are also driving the recent rally in Chinese equity markets: the better-than-feared impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, growing domestic optimism following the release of China’s DeepSeek AI, and rising policy expectations ahead of the National People’s Congress in March.Join Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research for Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group, as they dive each of these key developments shaping China's market landscape.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, Jen-Ai Chua, Equities Research Analyst at Julius Baer, highlights how Chinese AI start up DeepSeek has upended traditional assumptions underpinning growth in the AI sector. This spells opportunities and risks for players in different parts of the supply chain. In other developments, the Fed’s decision to hold rates at its January Open Market Committee Meeting hints at possible inflation pressures, while President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China are classic shock and awe tactics that herald the start of a period of political noise and uncertainty.

Every day we read new statistics about how much investment is needed to maintain ageing infrastructure and to build new infrastructure that will keep pace with modern economies.  Governments can only provide a portion of the trillions of US dollars needed every year, making private investment essential.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast ‘Introduction to Private Infrastructure’, Fiona Kenyon, Head of Private Markets Advisors, Julius Baer talks to Tara Courtney Davies, Partner and Co-Head of KKR EMEA and Co-Head European Infrastructure, about private infrastructure: what it is, as well as its relevance to investors. In their conversation they discuss the important dynamics and developments investors should know about, and the role it can play in a sophisticated portfolio.00:41 Introduction to speakers and topic01:42 What is infrastructure?02:27 What characterises infrastructure assets?03:43 Global infrastructure needs04:24 Tailwinds fuelling infrastructure investment06:02 The role of private investment06:34 Private infrastructure investment in a portfolio context08:43 Risks to consider when investing in infrastructure 10:34 Incorporating infrastructure assets into appropriate portfolios11:43 Considerations regarding semi-liquid investment products12:46 ConclusionWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Markets have had a busy week as we approach the Chinese New Year of the Wood Snake. The US Dollar index started to move lower after President Donald Trump appeared to soften his stance on China. Meanwhile, the US economy remains robust, and US equities are jumping on earnings wins by the most since 2018.In Asia, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.5% on the back on domestic wage pressures and core inflation which remains firmly above the 2% target. Over in Singapore, the Monetary Authority of Singapore eased monetary policy for the first time since 2021.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer.

There was a clear relief rally in both the stock and rates market, following softer-than-expected US CPI numbers last week. In the grand scheme of things however, asset pricings have swung between growth and inflation or policy shocks over the past year. In this episode, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, discusses the significant treasury moves over the past year, the implications of the latest CPI print, and what to watch out in rates and equities markets.

Cracks in market sentiment have begun to surface in the first three weeks of 2025. A slew of negative headlines and rumours include the outgoing Biden administration placing several Chinese tech giants on the “Chinese Military Companies” list, and the tariff threats from the incoming Trump administration continue to be an overhang on markets. How do we see the US-China trade relationship in 2025, and how should investors position accordingly? Our experts also discuss the key US inflationary drivers to watch out for in 2025, and the path for the Chinese Yuan and Chinese equities given the recent policy announcements from the People’s Bank of China. This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

In this episode of the week in markets, equities research analyst Jen-Ai Chua highlights how stronger-than-​expected non-farm payrolls data for December has pushed up Treasury yields, resulting in a yawning gap in US and Chinese government bond yields. This has put downward pressure on the Chinese Yuan – although it is not the only currency in Asian expected to soften. The Singapore Dollar, hitherto one of the stronger currencies in Asia, is also likely to weaken this year as inflation ebbs. US consumer and producer price inflation data out this week, and Q4 2024 earnings releases by financial heavyweights will likely determine if the US equity market can trek higher. 

In this episode of Beyond Markets, we are joined by Markus Waeber, Head of Indirect Real Estate and Intelligence, to discuss the latest developments in real estate and how investing in the ‘living’ sector can also be an investment in your quality of life. Hosted by Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership.

The S&P 500 index’s internal indicators signal a top may be in the making. After two years of returns in excess of 20%, the index trades at a pricey forward price/earnings ratio of 22x. Renewed inflation concerns could be a catalyst for a serious correction. We remain fully invested but contemplate reducing risk at some point in the year. While the consensus among Wall Street strategists is that the S&P will rise 12% this year, studies show their accuracy as a group is less than 50%. As a group, they’ve also never predicted a down year, while in fact one in four years has historically had a negative return.

In its December 18 meeting, the Federal Reserve signalled that inflation is going to be higher than it expected. If the Fed has to raise rates again at some point next year, the market would not like that at all. The S&P 500 index has returned 60% in the last 2 years, and is trading at valuations seen only in the dot-com and pandemic stimulus booms.But the final phase of a bull market can last a painfully long time for those who try to be contrarian. We remain invested, but contemplate reducing risk at some point in 2025. It will be a year of capital preservation, after 2 years of capital growth.

A survey done by the National Federation of Independent Business finds a surge of optimism among small business owners in the United States since the election. Meanwhile, not one of the world’s largest economies is expected to be in a recession next year. That sentiment is reflected in the world stock market index, which is back to touching the upper band of its ascending channel, for the first time since late 2021. A large venture capital-backed unicorn has a successful IPO last week, despite still being loss making. With 27% of the S&P 500 index’s market capitalisation in just five companies, concentration in the stock market is at an all-time high. But concentration has never been a useful predictor for forward returns; in fact high levels of concentration have historically coincided with good forward returns.

In 2024, we witnessed the normalisation of many economic variables, notably inflation and growth, clearing the path for monetary policy easing in the US and Europe. Looking to 2025, with a new Republican administration in place in the US there will be plenty of changes to digest. Our analysts believe that the key to success will be closing significant fiscal, geopolitical, and corporate deals whilst also achieving economic growth. What does this mean for financial markets and those who invest in them?In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast ‘Market Outlook 2025 – The art of the real deal’, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the market environment, why they expect broadening equity returns, and which sectors are set to benefit from likely growth and policy shifts in 2025.00:37 Introduction to topic and speakers01:06 Broad expectations for 202502:08 Monetary policy oulook02:43 Trump tariff implications for Europe03:18 Trump tariff implications for Asia04:45 Equity preferences in Asia06:19 Developed market equity stance06:57 Preferred cyclical sectors07:35 The impact of the Republican sweep10:02 USD bond opportunities10:27 EUR bond opportunities11:02 The duration sweet spot11:29 Emerging market bonds11:49 Our view on gold’s outlook12:44 Next Generation: Cloud computing & AI; Extended longevity14:39 Next Generation: Future cities15:14 Summary of our outlook for 202515:50 Closing commentsWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.