Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

For our last journey beyond the polls of the year, we examine the Democratic Party's options post-2024. Jonathan Cowan, president of the centrist think tank Third Way, joins Henry to explain how the left wing took over the party vessel and how they ran it off the tracks. They consider whether Democrats will get the message in time to compete in 2028 and go over the playbook necessary for those center-left candidates who are serious about winning elections. Henry's off for the holidays, but stay subscribed—or get started if you haven't already!—and we'll see you back in 2025.  

This week on Beyond the Polls, Henry sits down with Tim Goeglein of Focus on the Family to cover his new book, Stumbling Toward Utopia: How the 1960s Turned Into a National Nightmare and How We Can Revive the American Dream. They dive into the early roots of the midcentury's cultural upheaval and consider why Americans seem ready to turn back the tide.Plus, Henry eschews Beltway insider opinions in favor of ordinary Americans' take on Trump and Harris post-election, along with Trump's cabinet selections, as shown in recent polling data.  

It's an all-rant episode this week as Henry breaks down the latest polling on Donald Trump's boosted favorability. (They like him. They really like him!) Plus, we go abroad to take a look at the populist movements that are sinking European establishmentarians who were meant to keep this global movement at bay.

For years, Ruy Texiera has warned Democrats of the consequences of its moves away from the working-class voters who have held up the popular party since the days of FDR. Today, he and Henry work out a few answers to the question Ruy posed in his recent book, Where Have All the Democrats Gone? They go over the insularity that's led the elite leftward, consider the intra-party fights necessary to break up the club, and wonder how long it will take for such punchy liberal patriots to emerge.

Want a detailed analysis of Tuesday's red wave but don't know whose to take to the bank? Why not give a listen to the guy who boldly predicted the results? That's right, our own Henry Olsen got it about as right as could be! So this week's episode is an all-rant breakdown of who voted which way, why they went there, and what to expect from voters and the parties beyond 2024. P.S. Henry's off next week, but be sure to stay subscribed to Beyond the Polls (or hop on if you haven't already), because we're taking this podcast to 2025!

Henry’s guest for the final pre-election episode of the season has covered political campaigns for quite some time. But he’s never seen anything like the election we’re looking at today. Brit Hume and Henry discuss how the game has changed since they started: covering everything from the new media landscape, marked by a turn from the standard of neutrality to polling in the age of models, along with the fiercely divided electorate and these once-unimaginable candidates. Plus, Henry rants his way through all the swing states to make as plain as possible the complicated rules and regulations, procedures and peculiarities that will affect the Election Day result rollout. And he does a lightning-fast ad roundup of the ultra-close House races in Colorado 8, Pennsylvania 10, Arizona 1, and Michigan 10 to consider whether they might push the needle just over the edge. Happy Election Day, everyone!

The Harris Campaign is pulling out all the stops to edge out Donald Trump in what looks set to be the closest election since 2000. Lately, these efforts have concentrated on energizing enthusiasm among black voters. To discuss the alleged inroads made by Republicans with this group and to consider whether Democrats can hold onto their usual 90+ percent hold, Henry is joined by his pal Eugene Robinson, Pulitzer Prize winning columnist of the Washington Post. They also take a couple of pit stops in the past to assess, on the one hand, Donald Trump's unique talents, and on the other, what Joe Biden might do to assist his vice president's bid. Plus, Henry dives into the early vote returns and lays out what we can and can't know based on the models; and he takes a look at two dueling ads out of Florida that aim to sway voters for and against the state's abortion ballot initiative.

We may be three weeks from Election Day, but votes are already being cast. To get a handle on what's going on, Henry sits down with the foremost early voting expert, Michael McDonald of the University of Florida. They go into the history of the accommodation and the trends of both the methods' expansion, along with the changes in how Democrats and Republicans are using the available options. They also get into the rule differences among the swing states that will affect how the returns come in on November 5th. Plus, Henry dives into the Harris campaign's concerns over her polling numbers with Black voters, and he zips through a lightning-round ad breakdown for key races in Pennsylvania, Arizona and New York.  

Don’t count the Badger State out. It’s very much in play, but keeping up with moving parts and pieces can be downright dizzying. Craig Gilbert of Marquette Law School and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel joins Henry to properly orient us to a state with Obama-Trump voters in the West, Anti-Trump Republicans in the suburbs, and one oh-so-narrow Senate race. Plus, Mr. Olsen finally has some company to spread the news about the Republican Party’s novel voter identification edge. He breaks down what this best-kept non-secret means for strategists, and assesses how the Harris and Trump campaigns are responding.And, as always, Henry’s got ads! This week he takes a look at the light touch approach taken by John Duarte of CA-13 to win over weary Independents, alongside Susan Wild’s ingenious ploy for young women in PA-7.

Wall Street Journal's Gerard Baker joins Henry to consider how J.D. Vance's debate performance might have given us a glimpse of post-Trump populism, and they discuss how Trump and Harris might win undecided voters by sticking to their (wildly different) campaigning guns.Plus, Henry draws our attention to three far-flung disturbances that have the potential to form into great October surprises; and he takes a close look at two competing ads aimed at defining PA senatorial candidate Dave McCormick based on his time in the private sector.

Selena Zito joins Henry today to talk about the all-important Keystone State. They discuss the voter sentiment shift that occurred between Obama's ten-point win in 2008 and Trump's narrow victory in 2016. They home in on the counties that will decide who takes Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes, and consider how Kamala Harris's slight lead in the polls might be overstated. Plus, Henry dives into the early voting numbers thus far. Is much ado being made about just a little? Tune in for big answers!

In the era of the perpetual campaign, debates don't move the polls like they used to. But Henry breaks down how, in a presidential race as tight as this, Kamala Harris' victory on Tuesday night may move the needle one or two points in a race where one or two points makes all the difference. Then, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball joins to give an update on the key House and Senate races. He and Henry play out hypothetical scenarios on how a narrow Trump or Harris win in toss-up districts might sway the chambers. Finally, Henry takes a look at Angela Alsobrooks' latest ad, which tries to sway Independents and Democrat leaners from putting Larry Hogan on the national stage. 

Upon gaining the Democratic Party's nomination, Kamala Harris's favorability rating surged from below her boss's historic low to nearly 50 percent today. But did the swell come too soon? Fox News Radio analyst and Editor-in-Chief of Jewish Insider Josh Kraushaar joins to discuss the post-convention slump, along with a review of how the lingering war in Gaza and unsettling chatter from extreme partisans might affect the Jewish vote in November.Plus, Henry gives special attention to a recent piece by Patrick Rufini about overestimated margins in past elections that could help us spot potential polling errors. And he takes a look at a couple of ads out of Michigan 8: Kristen McDonald Rivet's quirky tax-cutter introduction ad and challenger Paul Junge's spot to define her on radical social positions.

Since the 2020 election, American political observers have heard a great deal about voter fraud. But media coverage tends to either enthusiastically endorse or vehemently dismiss the accusations without parsing out the details of what’s being alleged. Today’s guest, Arizona elections analyst Garrett Archer, takes us through the process that occurs between your submitting a ballot and its tallying. He and Henry get into the weeds on everything from signature verification and speculation about machine hacking, to late-night swings and the canvassing process, along with why it takes so long to count the votes. Plus, Henry delves into RFK Jr.’s withdrawal from the race and considers who stands to gain. And he takes a close look at two ads—one for Republican Rob Bresnahan of Northeastern Pennsylvania and another for Democrat Hillary Scholten of West Michigan—who both make deft appeals to swing voters in districts where the candidates’ party hardly enjoys a firm majority.

Today’s guest, Jeff Roe—who’s been dubbed “the next Karl Rove”—grew up on a hog farm and is the founder of Axiom Strategies, a renowned Republican consulting firm. Guess which trade he thinks is dirtier? He joins Henry to give us the insider’s take on the practical realities of campaign strategy, past, present and future.Plus, as the DNC comes to a close, Henry asks the multi-million dollar question: Does this show really matter anymore?

In Alaska's 2022 special election, candidates as varied as Sarah Palin and Mary Peltola to Santa Claus were on the ballot. That year was also unique for offering ranked-choice voting, allowing conflicted residents to cast as many as four picks with descending weight. In November, both the incumbent Peltola and the ranked-choice repeal initiative are on the ballot, so Henry recruits the Alaska Beacon's James Brooks to give us a tour of the vast electoral wilderness. Plus, Henry wonders about the staying power of Kamala-mania; and unpacks an Arizona attack ad that highlights the firebrand Kari Lake's baggage. 

The tickets are set, and Americans are looking at a stark choice between two very different futures. Henry is joined by Michael Podhorzer — former political director of the AFL-CIO and author of the Weekend Reading substack. The two dive into the campaign framing between a MAGA or normal election that past polling shows will all but guarantee the outcome in November. Plus, Henry rants on what Tim Walz's selection tells us about the Harris campaign; and he takes a look at Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown's border ad where he poses as... a Republican.

With Joe Biden's decision to drop out from the presidential race, the Democratic Party has been forced to improvise. But there's a method to what looks like madness! Joining Henry today is the Brookings Institution's Elaine Kamarck — author of Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know about How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates. Tune in for an in-depth discussion on the process that will straighten out the party's predicament.Plus, Henry considers how Kamala Harris's placement on the ticket affects the "double haters" that have simultaneously fascinated and flummoxed pollsters; and he takes us through Wesley Bell's latest ad to get the attention of Cori Bush's base. 

The tectonic shakeup in American politics continues, as Joe Biden bows out and Kamala Harris appears positioned as Democratic heir apparent. Henry digs into the challenges she faces as a well-known figure with high unfavorability, and considers how she might attempt to expand her appeal. Next, Daniel Scarpinato joins to assess the key primaries in the ever-interesting Grand Canyon State. They break down the fight among Democrats to defeat David Schweikert in AZ 1, the Republican scrap to replace Debbie Lesko in AZ 8, and the race to replace Reuban Gallego in AZ 3. Finally, he takes a look at a moving abortion ad in Nevada that aims to keep Sam Brown out of the Senate.

It’s been a wicked googly of a week in American politics! To start, Henry appraises how the polls might be affected by both the attempt on Trump’s life and the announcement of an all-outsider ticket, with J.D. Vance in the VP slot. Next, he and Michael Dimock (president of the Pew Research Center) delve into the process of crafting public opinion polls that pin down the perplexing array of citizen sentiments. Lastly, he takes a look at another ad of the week — this time from a problem-solving newcomer running in Wisconsin’s 8th.