Beyond the Polls with Henry Olsen

In the era of the perpetual campaign, debates don't move the polls like they used to. But Henry breaks down how, in a presidential race as tight as this, Kamala Harris' victory on Tuesday night may move the needle one or two points in a race where one or two points makes all the difference. Then, Kyle Kondik of Sabato's Crystal Ball joins to give an update on the key House and Senate races. He and Henry play out hypothetical scenarios on how a narrow Trump or Harris win in toss-up districts might sway the chambers. Finally, Henry takes a look at Angela Alsobrooks' latest ad, which tries to sway Independents and Democrat leaners from putting Larry Hogan on the national stage. 

Upon gaining the Democratic Party's nomination, Kamala Harris's favorability rating surged from below her boss's historic low to nearly 50 percent today. But did the swell come too soon? Fox News Radio analyst and Editor-in-Chief of Jewish Insider Josh Kraushaar joins to discuss the post-convention slump, along with a review of how the lingering war in Gaza and unsettling chatter from extreme partisans might affect the Jewish vote in November.Plus, Henry gives special attention to a recent piece by Patrick Rufini about overestimated margins in past elections that could help us spot potential polling errors. And he takes a look at a couple of ads out of Michigan 8: Kristen McDonald Rivet's quirky tax-cutter introduction ad and challenger Paul Junge's spot to define her on radical social positions.

Since the 2020 election, American political observers have heard a great deal about voter fraud. But media coverage tends to either enthusiastically endorse or vehemently dismiss the accusations without parsing out the details of what’s being alleged. Today’s guest, Arizona elections analyst Garrett Archer, takes us through the process that occurs between your submitting a ballot and its tallying. He and Henry get into the weeds on everything from signature verification and speculation about machine hacking, to late-night swings and the canvassing process, along with why it takes so long to count the votes. Plus, Henry delves into RFK Jr.’s withdrawal from the race and considers who stands to gain. And he takes a close look at two ads—one for Republican Rob Bresnahan of Northeastern Pennsylvania and another for Democrat Hillary Scholten of West Michigan—who both make deft appeals to swing voters in districts where the candidates’ party hardly enjoys a firm majority.

Today’s guest, Jeff Roe—who’s been dubbed “the next Karl Rove”—grew up on a hog farm and is the founder of Axiom Strategies, a renowned Republican consulting firm. Guess which trade he thinks is dirtier? He joins Henry to give us the insider’s take on the practical realities of campaign strategy, past, present and future.Plus, as the DNC comes to a close, Henry asks the multi-million dollar question: Does this show really matter anymore?

In Alaska's 2022 special election, candidates as varied as Sarah Palin and Mary Peltola to Santa Claus were on the ballot. That year was also unique for offering ranked-choice voting, allowing conflicted residents to cast as many as four picks with descending weight. In November, both the incumbent Peltola and the ranked-choice repeal initiative are on the ballot, so Henry recruits the Alaska Beacon's James Brooks to give us a tour of the vast electoral wilderness. Plus, Henry wonders about the staying power of Kamala-mania; and unpacks an Arizona attack ad that highlights the firebrand Kari Lake's baggage. 

The tickets are set, and Americans are looking at a stark choice between two very different futures. Henry is joined by Michael Podhorzer — former political director of the AFL-CIO and author of the Weekend Reading substack. The two dive into the campaign framing between a MAGA or normal election that past polling shows will all but guarantee the outcome in November. Plus, Henry rants on what Tim Walz's selection tells us about the Harris campaign; and he takes a look at Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown's border ad where he poses as... a Republican.

With Joe Biden's decision to drop out from the presidential race, the Democratic Party has been forced to improvise. But there's a method to what looks like madness! Joining Henry today is the Brookings Institution's Elaine Kamarck — author of Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know about How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates. Tune in for an in-depth discussion on the process that will straighten out the party's predicament.Plus, Henry considers how Kamala Harris's placement on the ticket affects the "double haters" that have simultaneously fascinated and flummoxed pollsters; and he takes us through Wesley Bell's latest ad to get the attention of Cori Bush's base. 

The tectonic shakeup in American politics continues, as Joe Biden bows out and Kamala Harris appears positioned as Democratic heir apparent. Henry digs into the challenges she faces as a well-known figure with high unfavorability, and considers how she might attempt to expand her appeal. Next, Daniel Scarpinato joins to assess the key primaries in the ever-interesting Grand Canyon State. They break down the fight among Democrats to defeat David Schweikert in AZ 1, the Republican scrap to replace Debbie Lesko in AZ 8, and the race to replace Reuban Gallego in AZ 3. Finally, he takes a look at a moving abortion ad in Nevada that aims to keep Sam Brown out of the Senate.

It’s been a wicked googly of a week in American politics! To start, Henry appraises how the polls might be affected by both the attempt on Trump’s life and the announcement of an all-outsider ticket, with J.D. Vance in the VP slot. Next, he and Michael Dimock (president of the Pew Research Center) delve into the process of crafting public opinion polls that pin down the perplexing array of citizen sentiments. Lastly, he takes a look at another ad of the week — this time from a problem-solving newcomer running in Wisconsin’s 8th.

Washington's worst-kept secret is out: Joe Biden is not up to the job he's campaigning for. Today's guest is former White House Press Secretary and Fox News host Dana Perino. No stranger to balancing the priorities of the nation's inquiring minds with those of the administration, she joins Henry to discuss a presidential fiasco like no other we've ever seen. Plus, Henry digs into the debate that finally got Democrats talking about Biden's decline; considers how down-ballot candidates will be affected; and speculates on how the party might clean up its mess. He also takes a look at Maggie Newlander's impressive introductory ad.  

After 14 years at the helm, the polls tell us the British Tories are facing a slaughter on Thursday. To get at the party’s collapse, Henry hops across the pond to discuss British politics with a couple of swell chaps. First up is The Times’ Tim Montgomerie, who covers the post-Brexit smashing victory and the subsequent failure to deliver to the new coalition. Then Matthew Goodwin joins to dig into the rise of Nigel Farage, UKIP, and the Reform Party’s challenge to the status quo.And if you're new to the British parliamentary system, fret not! Henry's got a rant to get you up to speed. - Music from this week's show: "Rule, Britannia" performed by the Prince's Military Band and "The Star Spangled Banner" performed by Frank C. Stanley (via the Library of Congress)

If you want to win an election, you gotta campaign. And to campaign, you gotta get a lotta dough! This week Henry chats with R. Rebecca Donatelli, founder of Campaign Solutions, for a deep dive into the world of online political fundraising. Plus, Henry rants ahead of a debate that (we're told) won't change anybody's mind. And he breaks down a big introduction ad for a newcomer candidate who hopes to take Kansas 2.

Chuck Warren of the Breaking Battlegrounds Podcast joins Henry for a close inspection of the ever-interesting state of Utah. They get into the characteristics that make it a red state like no other as they dig into the primaries for Mitt Romney's Senate seat and congressional districts 2 and 3.  Plus, Henry takes a look at Trump's sustained lead in the polls; later he compares the ad strategies of South Carolina CD 3 primary candidates Mark Burns and Sheri Biggs.

J. Miles Coleman, Associate Editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, returns to peer into the contested primaries in Virginia's 5th, 7th and 10th congressional districts. These deep dives into the respectively red, purple and blue territories, Coleman and Henry survey this microcosm of the national stage. Plus, Henry unpacks Emmanuel Macron's snap election gamble to head off his populist archfoe Marine Le Pen; and he looks at two finely crafted ads for Democrat Mary Peltola's tough reelection bid in Alaska. 

The verdict is in but it's still early to tell exactly what it means for Donald Trump's bid to take back the White House. To weigh the possibilities, The Federalist's Mollie Hemingway joins Henry. They also cover Joe Biden's innumerable vulnerabilities to an electorate whose minds may remain unchanged; they parse through the criteria Trump might consider for his VP pick; and appraise the conservative brand in the counter-revolutionary era. Plus, Henry takes a close look at Josh Stein's ad attacking Mark Robinson's fervent anti-abortion statements in hopes of pulling ahead in the tight North Carolina Governor's race.

Cook Political Report's Amy Walter returns to the podcast to break down the latest findings from her 2024 Swing State Project. She explains voters' thoughts and expectations on the economy; provides analysis of the low Undecided/high third party numbers; and offers her take on the Democrats' scramble to keep its diverse base on the party premises.Plus, Henry dives into a multi-decadal series of "Right Direction/Wrong Track" polling results to give us a sense of what it might mean for  November; and he takes a look at John Avlon's deft pitch for partisan Ds and moderate Rs in New York's red 1st Congressional District.

As Donald Trump leads on the backstretch of the 2024 presidential race, Biden makes use of his whip, challenging his opponent to an unconventional debate. Henry takes a deep dive into this necessary bold strategy. Then he's joined by NBC's national political correspondent Steve Kornacki. The two discuss the president's failure to gain traction as Trump maintains momentum. Plus, Henry takes a close look at two ads for Tony Gonzalez — one from his campaign, the other from the RCJ SuperPac — against challenger Brandon Herrera in Texas 23.

Henry’s back after a brief hiatus as election season heats up! He's joined by National Review's Jim Geraghty to parse out the parties’ business-as-usual dysfunction from the special brand of it we've gotten used to recently. They consider whether the Republican Party even knows what it wants; what they’ll do if they pull off the trifecta in November; and what we should make of tight polls considering the Biden/Harris ticket’s historic unpopularity.Plus, Henry delivers his first ever Bad Ad of the Week, in response to Don Blankenship's clunker spot; and he makes a quick stop in Maryland to explain why Angela Alsobrooks' personal touch won out over David Trone's big money.

Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights joins to discuss his new book, The Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP. He and Henry consider why the shift has occurred, why so few saw it coming, how sustainable a working class Republican Party really is, and what to make of it as a global phenomenon. Plus, Henry brings back the dueling ads of the week, this time pitting Jon Tester against Sherrod Brown.

What to make of the astounding, worldwide coalition shifts we've seen over the last decade? There are few better to pose the question to than Ruy Teixiera. He and Henry dive into the Democratic Party's abandonment of the white working class and the Republican Party's clumsy attempt to win them over.Plus, Henry takes a look at a well-made ad from the Lauren Boebert team