Imogen Bachra shares her take on to watch in the week commencing 14th of September. * Friday's US inflation data was sufficiently firm that it feels like a 25 basis point hike from the Fed next week looks like the path of least resistance. Our base case is still that this is a one and done move. We still see labour market weakness emerging into 2027, which could ultimately pave the way for rate cuts, but clearly persistently elevated energy prices present an upside risk to this view.&nb...
This week on Bondcast, Imogen Bachra is joined by market specialists Stuart Sparks and Oriane Parmentier to discuss the latest developments across the major central banks and what they could mean for rates markets. Recorded shortly after the ECB’s meeting, the conversation begins with the central bank’s latest 25bp rate hike and the implications of higher inflation and growth projections. The discussion then turns to the Bank of England ahead of next week’s meeting, including the potential fo...
In this episode of Bondcast: Speakers’ Corner, host Imogen Bachra speaks to Deepika Dayal about one of the key questions surrounding the AI boom: will artificial intelligence ultimately be inflationary or disinflationary? Deepika explains why the answer depends heavily on the time horizon. While AI could deliver substantial productivity gains over the longer term, the enormous investment required to build the AI infrastructure is already creating pockets of inflationary pressure — particular...
Imogen Bachra shares her quick take on the big themes and events likely to move markets over the coming week: US market focus is squarely on the inflation data. Fed Chair Warsh clearly overweighted the inflation data relative to current employment trends in his reaction function, and Governor Waller’s comments in the last week reiterated that point. The strength in the employment report on Friday has raised the bar for the Fed not to hike, but it still feels like a close call that will ...
In Bondcast's 250th episode, Imogen Bachra is joined by market specialists Stuart Sparks and Oriane Parmentier to assess a more eventful-than-expected Jackson Hole, the outlook for the Fed, next week’s ECB meeting and the latest move in gilt yields. The discussion starts with the Fed’s increasingly hawkish stance following Jackson Hole. Stuart explores what a conventional hiking cycle could mean for the rates curve, arguing that three further Fed hikes would push front-end yields materially h...