Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity

Interstate migration has declined in the U.S. in recent decades, suggesting that workers are less likely to move in order to find employment. Such a trend would have significant policy implications for state and local governments, as well as at the federal level. But new research by Andrea Foschi, Christopher L. House, Christian Proebsting, and Linda L. Tesar suggests that it isn’t workers who have changed as much as differences in regional economies. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, House and Tesar join Brookings Senior Fellow Tara Watson to discuss the findings of their new paper, “Should I Stay or Should I go? The response of labor migration to economic shocks.” Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

In early 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic struck national economies like a hammer. As the disease spread, workers went home, businesses were empty, and economic indicators crashed. Now, five years later, the U.S. economy looks in many ways like it did pre-pandemic, with GDP back on to the pre-pandemic trend and unemployment down to around 4% after spiking to over 10% in 2020. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Brookings Senior Fellow Louise Sheiner is joined by Harvard University’s James Stock to discuss his new paper, “Recovering from COVID,” in which he and coauthor Mark Watson of Princeton explore the amazing economic recovery from the pandemic recession and the implications for future policymaking. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Housing prices nationally are at an all-time high, including in many metro areas that were previously considered affordable alternatives to coastal markets. While prices have been rising over recent decades, the average growth rates of housing stock have been in decline. In a new BPEA paper, Edward Glaeser and Joseph Gyourko explore the evolving dynamics of the U.S. housing market, focusing on six metropolitan areas and in particular on steep housing stock decreases in Sun Belt cities. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Gyourko joins Brookings Vice President and Director of Economic Studies Ben Harris to discuss the paper’s findings and potential policies to boost affordable housing supply. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

At around $900 billion in transactions daily, the market for U.S. Treasuries is massive, not only in terms of quantity but also in terms of importance to the U.S. and global economies. The Treasury market is tied to interest rates, the value of the dollar, and financial markets around the world. So when shocks hit the Treasury market, as they did during the COVID-19 crisis, the ripple effects can be global. In a new paper, “Treasury market dysfunction and the role of the central bank,” Anil K Kashyap, Jeremy C. Stein, Jonathan L. Wallen, and Joshua Younger explore how the Federal Reserve reacted to the 2020 Treasury disturbance and present a proposal for future action. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Senior Fellow David Wessel is joined by Kashyap to discuss the findings as well as the relevance to recent Treasury market volatility. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

The U.S. trade deficit has long been a source of political consternation, but it has come to the forefront in recent weeks. Just a few months into Donald Trump’s second term, he has made the trade deficit a key target of his aggressive tariff policies. On the day that President Trump announced a new, sweeping round of tariffs on all U.S. trade partners, Brookings Senior Fellow Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti was joined by Maurice Obstfeld of the Peterson Institute for International Economics to discuss Obstfeld’s new paper, “The U.S. Trade Deficit: Myths and Realities.” On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Miles-Ferretti and Obstfeld explore the causes and consequences of the U.S. trade deficit, the role of China and other foreign nations, and broader implications for the American economy. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

The Federal Reserve’s “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy”—commonly referred to as its monetary policy framework—is composed of guiding principles the central bank uses in setting and communicating policy. Since the Fed last updated this framework in 2020, the global economy has faced unique challenges: COVID-19 shutdowns, widespread supply chain issues, and multiple global wars. In 2025, the Fed Board will be tasked with reviewing the framework, identifying what has worked well and what hasn’t, and updating it accordingly. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, David Wessel sits down with Brian Sack and Christina Romer, both former policymakers and authors of new research on the Fed framework's successes and shortfalls. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

The clean energy transition has quietly pushed ahead in recent decades, with solar and wind energy accounting for almost 15% of total U.S. energy production in February 2024. The benefits of this transition on climate change have been celebrated, but less acknowledged have been the potential economic benefits. In a new paper, “The economic impacts of clean power,” Costas Arkolakis and Conor Walsh explain how cheaper electricity resulting from this transition could lead to a 2-3% increase in national wages. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Walsh discusses his research with Sanjay Patnaik, director of Brookings’s Center on Regulation and Markets. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Fiscal deficit projections are used by policymakers to understand the trajectory of U.S. debt. Between 1984 and 2003, Congress was responsive to these projections, raising taxes and cutting spending when projections showed that the deficit would grow. However, since 2004, fiscal policy has ceased being responsive to debt projections regardless of the party in power. In a new paper, “Robust Fiscal Stabilization,” Alan Auerbach and Danny Yagan of the University of California, Berkeley, quantify this phenomenon by comparing fiscal legislation across the two periods. On this episode, Auerbach discusses the findings and their implications with Brookings Senior Fellow William Gale. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

When Congress considers legislation, nonpartisan agencies provide estimates of the law’s potential economic effects to policymakers, a process known as “scoring.” In recent decades, analysts at the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee on Taxation have developed models that incorporate complex feedback effects, going beyond conventional scoring techniques. These “dynamic scoring” methods can produce significantly different estimates of a law’s economic impact, but there are tradeoffs in applying them in different policy areas. On this episode Doug Elmendorf and Glenn Hubbard join Wendy Edelberg, director of The Hamilton Project, for a discussion on the costs and benefits of dynamic scoring. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Since 2022, Western nations have put a number of sanctions on Russia in response to its war in Ukraine. Policymakers and pundits have debated the efficacy of these measures, but this debate is belied by a deeper question: what does it mean for sanctions to “work”? In new BPEA research, Oleg Itskhoki of Harvard and Elina Ribakova of the Peterson Institute for International Economics explore fundamental questions of the theory and practice of sanctions in the Russia context. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Ben Harris, director of Economic Studies at Brookings, joins the authors for a discussion on what’s next for Russia and developing a doctrine of economic statecraft. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

The full-employment rate of unemployment may seem like a contradiction, but in fact, economists have long understood that some unemployment is necessary. In their new paper, Pascal Michaillat of UC Santa Cruz and Saez of the University of California, Berkeley present a new formula for identifying the efficient rate of unemployment in the U.S. and find that the labor market has been inefficiently slack for most of the last century. In this episode, Michaillat discusses the paper and potential impacts on macroeconomic theory and policy with Brookings Senior Fellow Louise Sheiner. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

As COVID-19 swept across the globe, many nations struggled to define a cohesive public health strategy to prevent the spread of the disease. However, in spite of the lack of a clear plan, improvised strategies of behavioral changes—e.g., masking, social distancing—slowed transmission until a vaccine could be developed. The new BPEA paper, “The impact of vaccines and behaviors on U.S. cumulative deaths from COVID-19,” estimates that the ad hoc strategy prevented close to 800,000 deaths. On this episode, epidemiologist and paper co-author Stephen Kissler talks with Brookings Senior Fellow Carol Graham about the model they used to study COVID-19's impacts and what can be done to improve the government response to future pandemics.   This is the final episode of season four of the podcast. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

The failure of three mid-sized banks in March 2023—three of the four largest bank failures in history—shook financial markets and could’ve spread to other banks if regulators hadn’t stepped in. Two on-going trends in finance contributed to these failures: an increase in uninsured deposits and the migration of business lending to non-banks. In a new paper, “The evolution of banking in the 21st century,” a group of Harvard researchers looked at regulations that could mitigate risks going forward as well as the potential implications for mergers and acquisitions among mid-sized banks. David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, hears from two of the authors, Samuel Hanson and Daniel Tarullo, on their findings in this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Most advanced economies enjoyed a long period of low, stable inflation prior to 2021, with inflation in the U.S. actually running below the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target for much of the 2010s. This stability was driven in part by factors external to monetary policy, including downward price and wage pressures from globalization and de-unionization. However, the authors of a new BPEA paper, “Changing central bank pressures and inflation,” argue that emerging trends may present headwinds to central banks trying to keep inflation steady. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, paper co-author Pierre Yared of Columbia Business School speaks with Brookings Senior Fellow Don Kohn about the new research and its implications for policymakers. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Many indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is thriving, yet Americans continue to have a negative overall economic outlook. Stubbornly high inflation has played a significant role in this negative sentiment among consumers, even as wage growth has caught up with the rate of inflation. In a new study, “Why do we dislike inflation?” Stefanie Stantcheva fielded a survey to explore how Americans experience inflation and why they have such strong feelings about it. In this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Stantcheva discusses her findings with Economic Studies Vice President and Director Ben Harris. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

In the mid-20th century, U.S. states experienced recessions very differently from one another, which resulted in many workers migrating between states in search of work. But a newly developed dataset shows that economic recoveries have begun to look very similar across states in recent decades. On this episode, Senior Fellow Louise Sheiner talks with Andrew Fieldhouse and David Munro, authors of a new BPEA study that produced this dataset, “The emergence of a uniform business cycle in the United States.” Their conversation with Sheiner explores the reasons behind the convergence in recession recovery and the policy implications.  Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Many countries have faced harrowing debt burdens, and reducing the national debt is usually a lasting challenge. But in just five years, the Jamaica reduced its debt-to-GDP ratio by 40 percentage points, something only a handful of other countries have done in that time frame. On this episode of the BPEA podcast, Peter Blair Henry of Stanford and UC Berkeley's Barry Eichengreen join Brookings Senior Fellow Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti to discuss their new BPEA paper on the unique factors that enabled Jamaica’s success. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

The COVID-19 pandemic shone a spotlight on supply chains, with shortages in everything from baby formula to microchips. This spurred an on-going policy debate on the need for the U.S. to shore up its supply chains, in some cases literally moving production back to the U.S. or allied nations. However, new analysis published in the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity showed that effort may be more difficult than standard supply chain data suggests, especially when it comes to limiting exposure to China. In this episode, David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, interviews Rebecca Freeman of the Bank of England and Angelos Theodorakopoulos of Aston University on the “hidden exposure” that is revealed in U.S. supply chains with their new data. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Economists have long debated the potential for rising wages and prices to push each other increasingly higher, driving inflation out of control—the so-called “wage-price spiral.” Concern about such a spiral has been high in the post-pandemic era, with inflation still running notably higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Martin Neil Baily of Brookings talks with the authors of a new BPEA paper on wage-price spirals, Guido Lorenzoni and Iván Werning. Their study, which developed a new model for this economic scenario, contends that because various factors drove price growth to outpace wages just after the pandemic, wages can increase faster than inflation, at least for a time, without necessarily spinning the economy out of control. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.

Predictably, the rate of new business formations and business expansions at the beginning of the pandemic plummeted. But, in two waves, applications for new businesses and expansions quickly recovered, countering several decades of decline in business dynamism. Surprising many economists, applications have remained much stronger than before the pandemic. On this episode of the Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity, Hamilton Project Director Wendy Edelberg talks with John Haltiwanger of the University of Maryland about his new paper documenting this trend, whether it is a fleeting anomaly or the new normal, and how policymakers can balance cooling the overheated economy with supporting young businesses. Show notes and transcript The Brookings Podcast on Economic Activity is part of the Brookings Podcast Network. Subscribe and listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. Send feedback email to podcasts@brookings.edu.