Brussels Sprouts

This week Brussels Sprouts breaks down the latest negotiations on Ukraine. American officials told reporters that they had resolved or closed gaps around 90 percent of their differences with Ukraine on a draft agreement to end the war. Territory and security guarantees remain the key sticking points. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said it would be impossible for Ukraine to give up territory that Russia has not taken on the battlefield, while Russia has not dropped its demands to control the territories it illegally annexed. On the security guarantees front, the United States and Europe sound optimistic that progress is being made. The latest plan seems to envision an 800,000-strong peacetime Ukrainian military, U.S.-provided intelligence and monitoring to track any attempts to breach the peace agreement, and a European-led multinational force that would be stationed in Ukraine but away from the front lines to bolster confidence. However, it is highly unlikely that Russia will agree to this plan or any plan that leaves Ukraine with a strong and capable military. In the meantime, the European Union continues to wrangle over whether it will use the frozen assets to finance a €210 billion loan to keep Ukraine financially solvent.    To help us assess where negotiations stand and where they might go, Brussels Sprouts welcomes Jana Kobzova and Jennifer Kavanagh to the podcast.  Jennifer Kavanagh is a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities. Jana Kobzova is a senior fellow and codirector of the European Security Program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. 

On December 4th, the Trump administration released its long-awaited national security strategy, sending another round of shock waves through the transatlantic community. The national security strategy acknowledges that Europe remains strategically vital to the United States and doubles down on the need for Europe to take more responsibility for its defense, but the strategy is unique in its condemnation of allies, focus on “civilizational erasure”, and promise to intervene to “help Europe correct its current trajectory.” While the 2017 National Security Strategy explicitly laid out several threats Russia poses to American interests, this one makes little mention of Russia except for calls to restore strategic stability. Many of America's European allies are feeling unsettled and concerned about the national security strategy and what it means for transatlantic relations. So, to help us understand the new national security strategy, it differs from Trump's first strategy and where the through lines are, we're excited to welcome Nadia Shadlow and Rebecca Heinrich to Brussels Sprouts. Nadia Schadlow is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute and a co-chair of the Hamilton Commission on Securing America’s National Security Innovation Base. Rebeccah Heinrichs is also a senior fellow at Hudson Institute and the director of its Keystone Defense Initiative.

It has been almost a year since Russia and Iran signed their comprehensive strategic partnership. That deal established a 20-year partnership between the two countries covering the full spectrum of their relationship from military to economic to cyber ties. Though the two countries have cooperated deeply, from mass production of military drones to smuggling millions of barrels of oil, Russia did not come to Iran's aid when Iran endured 12 days of punishing war at the hands of Israel and the United States. Despite this, cooperation between Russia and Iran has continued. In November, Financial Times reported that Iranian scientists and nuclear experts made a second covert visit to Russia last year in what the United States claims has been a push to obtain sensitive technologies with potential nuclear weapon applications. Cooperation between the two remains a significant challenge for the United States and its allies.   To take stock of where Russia-Iran relations are and where they may go, the Center for a New American Security is very pleased to welcome Hanna Notte and Nicole Grajewski to this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts. Hanna Notte is the director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies and a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Nicole Grajewski is a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, an associate researcher at Harvard’s Belfer Center, and the author of Russia and Iran: Partners in Defiance from Syria to Ukraine. 

Over the last month, nuclear tensions have been heating up. In late October, Vladimir Putin claimed two achievements: the successful test of a nuclear-powered missile known as Burevestnik and the initial test of an unmanned nuclear-powered submarine known as Poseidon. Both systems theoretically have unlimited range, and both are capable of hosting nuclear warheads. Shortly thereafter, President Donald Trump announced that the United States would resume nuclear testing on an equal basis with Russia and China. This week on Brussels Sprouts, concerns around the world of a revived nuclear arms race are growing. Between Putin’s nuclear testing, inflamed rhetoric from President Trump, and the looming expiration of the New START Arms Control Treaty between Russia and the United States in February 2026, the mounting evidence paints a concerning picture. To discuss this and more, the Center for a New American Security is very pleased to welcome Corey Hinderstein and Jon Wolfsthal to Brussels Sprouts.  Corey Hinderstein is vice president of studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and is responsible for the Technology, Sustainability, and Nuclear Policy Programs. Jon Wolfsthal is the director of Global Risk at the Federation of American Scientists and a CNAS adjunct senior fellow. 

America’s allies are cooperating in a growing variety of domains. In their recent Foreign Affairs piece, former NATO Ambassador Julie Smith and former National Security Council Senior Director Lindsey Ford argue that the United States should support and facilitate cooperation among America’s European and Indo-Pacific allies. In a world where U.S. adversaries are deepening their cooperation, it is no longer sufficient to ask allies to just focus on their own respective geographic corners of the world. Smith and Ford argue that cooperation between American allies stands to benefit American grand strategy.   This week on Brussels Sprouts, if the United States fails to capitalize on the already present trend of growing cooperation, Washington risks self-isolation and an inability to effectively manage challenges in a world where the lines between Asia and Europe are blurring and crises on one continent have spillover effects on the other.  To discuss this and more, the Center for a New American Security is very pleased to welcome Julie Smith and Lindsey Ford to Brussels Sprouts.    Julie Smith is president and cofounder of Clarion Strategies and former U.S. permanent representative to NATO from 2021 to 2024.    Lindsey Ford is a senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation and a former senior director for South Asia at the National Security Council from 2024 to 2025. She served as U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for South and Southeast Asia from 2021 to 2024. 

President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping on October 30, 2025, ended with a temporary truce between the two leaders. While this may be good news for the U.S.-China relationship in the short term, no formal comprehensive trade agreement followed, and any number of issues could derail the delicate truce. Europe has long sought to balance its ideological opposition to China with the desire for pragmatic trade and diplomatic relations.  This week on Brussels Sprouts, while European nations have largely aligned with the United States in restricting trade with China, could the recent U.S.-China trade thaw lead Brussels to pursue a similar rapprochement?  To discuss this and more, the Center for a New American Security is very pleased to welcome Liz Economy and Mikko Huotari to Brussels Sprouts. Liz Economy is a principal with WestExec Advisors and a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution Mikko Huotari is the executive director of the Mercator Institute for China Studies

Are we in a new Cold War? That is the question Mike McFaul takes on in his new book, Autocrats versus Democrats: Russia, China, America, and the New Global Disorder. McFaul argues that modern analogies to a second Cold War hold some merit but are insufficient given the rise of authoritarian tendencies within the United States and European democracies. Combining analysis of the Russian and Chinese threats with a critique of the Trump administration's isolationist and authoritarian tendencies, McFaul articulates a set of policy prescriptions that sketch a new grand strategy for American engagement with the world. Dr. Michael McFaul is the Director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and a Professor of International Studies at Stanford University

The Trump administration made a major move this week in its announcement of sanctions on major Russian oil companies Rosneft and Luke Oil, along with 31 subsidiaries. This follows President Donald Trump’s cancellation of a discussed meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest and a U.S. agreement to allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles to strike targets deeper inside Russia. Some have suggested that European leaders are feeling some satisfaction that their repeated interventions with Trump on behalf of Ukraine have finally produced American pressure on Moscow. This week on Brussels Sprouts, how can Europe navigate escalating Russian attacks on Ukraine and hybrid threats from Moscow while keeping the United States on side? To discuss this and more, the Center for a New American Security is very pleased to welcome Daniela Schwarzer and Natalie Tocci to Brussels Sprouts. Daniela Schwarzer is a board member of the Bertelsmann Stiftung and one of Germany's leading experts on European and international politics and economics and the development of democracy and the rule of law. Nathalie Tocci is the Director of the Italian Institute of International Affairs and a Professor of Practice at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.

Four years into its war in Ukraine, Russia continues to escalate attacks on the Ukrainian population while also dialing up its hybrid campaign against Europe. In the last six weeks alone, Russia has sent military drones into Polish and Romanian airspace and fighter aircraft into Estonian airspace and has continued its influence operations in places like Moldova and Czechia. The Russian military threat appears to be growing: German intelligence has stated that Russia “will not shy away from a direct military confrontation with NATO,” and the European Commission proposed a roadmap to prepare Europe for war by 2030. Yet that is only one side of the story. Russia has not come close to an operational breakthrough in Ukraine, and its economy is increasingly strained. Ukraine has struck 21 of Russia’s 38 large oil refineries since the start of this year, disrupting as much as 40 percent of the country’s oil refining capacity. Gasoline prices in Russia have spiked nearly 10 percent. In many ways, this is a tale of two Russias: one that appears to be gathering itself to strike NATO and another slowly crumbling under the weight of the war and Western sanctions that show no sign of letting up. To help us evaluate these two paradigms and assess the Russian threat, Brussels Sprouts is pleased to welcome three former deputy national intelligence officers for Russia and Eurasia: Eric Ciaramella and Nate Reynolds, senior fellows with the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Pete Schroeder, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security’s Transatlantic Security Program.

On the surface, great power competition often seems driven by economic and military conflict, but diplomacy has always been central to great powers' engagement with the world. This is the argument made by Dr. Wess Mitchell in his forthcoming book, Great Power Diplomacy, The Skill of Statecraft from Attila the Hun to Kissinger. Covering 15 centuries of history, the book makes a powerful case that diplomacy is an essential tool of great power politics and leaders ignore diplomatic skill at their own peril. With the press of current events and especially the rise of cooperation across the Axis of Upheaval, the book is more relevant than ever. We are very delighted to welcome the book's author, Wess Mitchell, to Brussels Sprouts. A. Wess Mitchell is a scholar of international relations, a principal at the Marathon Initiative, and he served as the United States Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia from 2017 to 2019.

On September 28th, Moldovan voters went to the polls in parliamentary elections to choose between competing visions for their country's future. Despite intense efforts by the Kremlin to influence the information space, wage cyber attacks on election infrastructure, and even make bomb threats at diaspora polling places in Europe, the pro-EU party of action and solidarity clinched just over 50 % of the vote, defeating the pro-Russia patriotic electoral bloc's 24%. The pro-EU party will command a parliamentary majority without needing to form a coalition government. This, coupled with pro-EU President Maya Sandu's victory in last year's presidential election, maintains Moldova's path towards the EU. But persistent challenges remain. Economic growth remains sluggish, poverty remains high, and the pro-Russian enclave of Transnistria remains a challenge from Moldova's EU accession hopes. To help us understand and decode the election results and what they mean for Moldova and the future of Russian influence in its periphery, we are very happy to welcome Bill Hill and Laura Thornton to the podcast. William Hill is a retired Foreign Service Officer, was previously a fellow at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, and is the former two-time head of the OSCE Mission to Moldova. Laura Thornton is the senior director for global democracy programs at the McCain Institute.

Over the last two weeks, Russia has repeatedly violated NATO airspace. Seventeen Russian military drones entered Polish airspace on September 10th, followed by another drone in Romania, three Russian jets flew into Estonian airspace for 12 minutes on September 19th, and drones of unknown origin shut down airports in Copenhagen and Oslo on September 22nd. In response to Russia's initial incursion, NATO launched Operation Eastern Sentry to increase and coordinate NATO efforts to counter Russia's drone threat. A new CNAS report released on September 10th details the tactics, techniques and procedures necessary to counter drones and finds current American drone capabilities lacking. NATO's counter-drone capabilities are not sufficient at present and urgent action is needed to prepare NATO militaries to counter Russian drone-based threats. Here to discuss the way forward with us is CNAS's own Dr. Stacy Pettyjohn, who's the co-author of the new CNAS report, and a Brussels Sprouts regular, Michael Kofman. Stacie Pettyjohn is a senior fellow and director of the defense program at CNAS Michael Kofman is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Despite the degradation of Moscow’s military in Ukraine, senior western officials estimate that it could reconstitute its forces within two to five years. A new CNAS report considers how a crisis in the Indo-Pacific could shape Russia’s willingness to test NATO. U.S. involvement in a major crisis in Asia would cause Washington to redeploy resources and would-be reinforcements for Europe to the Indo-Pacific, which would create meaningful gaps in NATO defenses. This, in turn, could lead Moscow to perceive a golden opportunity to accomplish its aims: divide the United States and Europe, expand its sphere of influence, and revise the security order in Europe. To discuss the latest Russian provocations and how NATO can fill the gaps in its defenses, we are very fortunate to be joined by General (Ret.) Philip Breedlove and Admiral (Ret.) James Foggo. General (Ret.) Philip Breedlove served as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe and Commander, U.S. European Command from 2013-2016, capping a 39-year Air Force career. Admiral (Ret.) James Foggo served as Commander, Allied Joint Force Command Naples and Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa from 2017-2020, capping a 39-year Navy career.

In the early hours of September 10th, Polish authorities detected 19 Russian drones over Polish airspace. This incident represents a major escalation, with Poland triggering Article 4 of the NATO Treaty. At a minimum, this was an attempt by Russia to get European nations to back down from their support for Ukraine and to expose the Alliance as a paper tiger. The attack also provided the Kremlin with key insights into Poland and NATO's air defenses and its chain of response. So how do we understand what happened and what needs to happen? To answer those very hard questions, we're very fortunate to have Doug Lute and Kurt Volker with us. Ambassador (Ret.) Douglas Lute served as the United States Ambassador to NATO from 2013–2017. Ambassador (Ret.) Kurt Volker served as the United States Ambassador to NATO from 2008–2009 and as the U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations from 2017–2019.

This week, we continue our assessment of the Trump-Putin and Trump-Zelensky meetings in August. European leaders can take solace in the fact that their presence at the Washington meeting means that their views are not being entirely ignored, but significant outstanding questions remain relating to how the discussions of western security guarantees for Ukraine could materialize. Now that any appearance of momentum from the meetings has petered out, we take stock of European leaders’ takeaways from the Washington meeting and where Europe goes from here in its efforts to support Ukraine. To share their views on the future of the European security order, we are very happy to welcome Shashank Joshi and Janis Kluge. Shashank Joshi is the Defense Editor at The Economist  Janis Kluge is Senior Associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin, Germany

The past week has seen a flurry of diplomacy from President Trump as he seeks to bring about a negotiated solution to Russia’s war on Ukraine. While activity has been undeniably high, what fruit has all this effort borne? Sam Charap and Angela Stent join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to help make sense of a whirlwind few days and the implications for the future of Ukraine and the transatlantic relationship writ large. Samuel Charap is Distinguished Chair in Russia and Eurasia Policy and a senior political scientist at RAND. Angela Stent is Professor Emerita of Government and Foreign Service at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

One of the most transformative geopolitical developments in recent years has been the increasing alignment among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.  Accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the deepening economic, military, and technological ties among these four countries have resulted in a new Axis of Upheaval—united by shared opposition to a U.S.-led global order. On July 30, CNAS hosted a virtual panel discussing the new report, The Axis of Upheaval: Gauging the Growing Military Cooperation Among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. The panel featured: Richard Fontaine, chief executive officer at CNAS Andrea Kendall-Taylor, senior fellow and director of the transatlantic security program at CNAS Karim Sadjadpour, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace The event was moderated by David McKenzie, director of communications at CNAS Read the report! https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/the-axis-of-upheaval

Jim and Andrea sit down with Fiona Hill, one of the leading thinkers on Russia, U.S.-Russia relations, and transatlantic affairs. The conversation takes place against a dizzying backdrop of issues, including Russia's escalating attacks on Ukraine and its civilian centers, and political unrest in Ukraine over moves by the Zelensky government to strip anti-corruption agencies of their independence. There are also questions about whether President Trump's 50-day ultimatum to Putin to get to a ceasefire represents a genuine change and a new, harder stance on Russia. Trump was across the pond in the UK over the weekend, and met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to finalize a trade deal with the bloc. But despite reaching a deal, the U.S. forced posture review in Europe, of course, still looms over the future of transatlantic affairs. Fiona Hill is a senior fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe within the Foreign Policy program at Brookings. She is also the Chancellor of Durham University in the United Kingdom.   

During the past several weeks, and since around March of this year, Russia has increased the intensity of its attacks on Ukraine. Moscow is launching brutal aerial assaults on cities and civilian centers, amounting to the largest drone and missile attacks to date in this war. Many eyes are now on Washington as the Trump administration sends inconsistent signals that give onlookers whiplash. Additionally, the bipartisan Senate bill to sanction countries that are still purchasing Russian energy has gained momentum in Congress. But with the August recess fast approaching, it will be a race to get to a vote this month.   To give us an update on the war in Ukraine, we're very pleased to welcome General Ben Hodges and Jana Kobzova.  Ben Hodges is a retired Lieutenant General in the United States Army and the former Commanding General of U.S. Army Europe  Jana Kobzova is the Co-Director of the European Security Programme and the European Council on Foreign Relations  This episode was recorded on July 11, 2025 

In the wake of a very short communiqué and an abbreviated Summit, many questions have been left unanswered by allies. How NATO would manage a reduction of military assets in Europe, support for Ukraine, nuclear strategy, and the rollout of the 5% spending benchmark are all uncertain at the moment, as is the transatlantic relationship.  To help us understand transatlantic dynamics following the Hague Summit, we’re very pleased to welcome Constanze Stelzemüller and Gabrielius Landsbergis   Constanze Stelzemüller is the Director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution  Gabrielius Landsbergis is the former Foreign Minister of Lithuania