Buy Hold Sell, by Livewire Markets

Just as in science, catalysts are the starting point for major change or action in life. It may be a whistleblower whose revelations lead to significant systemic change, or an enzyme that helps speed up a chemical reaction.  In investing, however, catalysts trigger a drastic change in a stock's share price trajectory. And while no one can know the future, the prediction of catalysts to come can help investors profit over the short term.  This could be new management, an earnings report, a new product/service announcement, legislative change, mergers and acquisitions, broker ratings changes, and for the short sellers out there, short reports.  So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Elston's Justin Woerner and LSN Capital's Nick Sladen for their analysis of five small stocks with big catalysts on the horizon.  And for those looking for some spicy stocks for their portfolios, only one of these stocks is rated as a sell by one fund manager - and the other believes it is a buy.  Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 24 April 2024. You can read an edited transcript below.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-small-stocks-with-big-catalysts-on-the-horizon

Want to learn how to identify undiscovered stocks before the rest of the market does? Of course, you do - what else are you going to talk about at your next dinner party... Or at the pub over a lukewarm beer... Or around the office coffee machine?  In this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by LSN Capital's Nick Sladen and Elston Asset Management's Justin Woerner for a deep dive into how investors can do exactly that.  They share why investors, like you and I, may have an advantage in discovering mispriced stocks in the typically undercovered small and micro-cap arena, the screens they use to identify winning stocks, and one non-negotiable that every company that makes its way into their portfolios needs to possess.  They also outline the risks investors should be aware of when hunting for gems in this area of the market, and whether it's worth investing in IPOs - because God knows, this anonymous writer has been burnt doing exactly that.  And just to help you level up your dinner party/office/pub chat, we also asked Woerner and Sladen to name an under-the-radar stock they are buying today. You're welcome.  Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 24 April 2024. 

There's something to be said about discovering a gem of a stock the rest of the market missed. Like uncovering a musician before the world does, or being the first to watch a TV series before everyone else's eyes are glued to the same screen. It's a great feeling - and one that may leave you asking, 'Am I better than everyone else?'  In most cases, probably not. But to help you on your way, this episode is dedicated to covering under-covered and undiscovered stocks. This anonymous writer is in the camp that everyone deserves a little confidence boost right now - particularly you, my dear reader.  Today's hunting ground is small-cap stocks - given these are typically less covered by analysts. The stocks in this episode have market caps between $500 million and $850 million, so they are also less likely to be in the playing fields of the big fund managers and are more likely to not be on investors' radars.  Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by LSN Capital Partners' Nick Sladen and Elston Asset Management's Justin Woerner for their analysis of these under-the-radar stocks.  Plus, they also each name an overcrowded small-cap darling that could be due for a sell-off from here.  Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday, 24 April 2024. 

As the name would suggest, future-facing commodities are those that will carry humanity forward as we take on the momentous task of decarbonising the world.   These are the commodities that are essential to the energy transition, including lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, graphite and copper.  Much of the demand for these commodities is expected to be driven by the uptake of electric vehicles over the next two decades, with governments around the world - including Europe, China, the US and Australia - providing incentives for people to 'go electric'.  We have already seen spikes in demand (and subsequent supply responses) for many of these commodities. And while the journey will likely remain volatile, on the whole, the wind only seems to be blowing one way;  Most analysts predict that global demand for lithium will double or even triple by 2030, according to Deloitte Demand for battery-grade nickel is expected to increase 50% by 2030, according to Deloitte Cobalt consumption over the last decade has tripled globally due to rising demand for electronics and EVs, and the demand is set to double again by 2035 Macquarie forecasts a doubling in graphite supply over the next decade but predicts a deficit in 2025 due to demand from the EV market Demand from the EV market is expected to take up more than 60% of global graphite demand by the end of 2030 S&P Global Market Intelligence projected in 2022 that annual global copper demand will nearly double from 25 million to roughly 50 million tonnes by 2035  However you slice it, demand for these commodities is only going to grow and, in most instances, the question is whether or not supply will keep that. That will create a host of opportunities.  As such, we sat down with Lowell Resources’ John Forwood & Acorn Capital’s Rick Squire, to get their take on what's hot and what's not when it comes to future facing metals.  Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 10 April 2024. You can watch the video, listen to the podcast, or read an edited transcript below.

There are a couple of hot commodities right now, including uranium, cocoa, and gold. The latter exploded higher in February this year after being stuck in a range for the best part of five years. Several reasons have been posited for gold's renaissance, the primary being that investors who expect the Fed to cut rates have been buying the commodity.  A low-interest rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and weighs on the US dollar, making bullion cheaper for non-US buyers.  One of the other reasons has been the buying of central banks - led by the People's Bank of China - to ease reliance on US dollars. Central banks have always viewed gold as a store of value and a haven in times of economic volatility - the type that might be precipitated by dramatically changing rate expectations.  Whatever the reason for the rally, gold is hot and investors have been keenly focused on the opportunities presented by the rich assortment of gold stocks available on the ASX.  To help you sort the wheat from the chaff, we sat down with Lowell Resources’ John Forwood and Acorn Capital’s Rick Squire for their top picks and outlook on the gold sector. Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 10 April 2024.

The law of supply and demand determines commodity prices. Currently, the uranium market is undersupplied, just as more nuclear reactors requiring fuel are being brought online. Some reports suggest the market will remain in structural undersupply for more than a decade. It’s one thing for an underlying commodity to rally. Where the rubber meets the road for investors, however, is in equities. In that vein, we engaged Rick Squire from Acorn Capital and John Forwood from Lowell Resources to discuss the risks and opportunities in uranium. They also share a couple of stocks that appear overpriced, as well as four names they would buy today. Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 10 April 2024.

Over the last five, 10, 15 and 20 years, mid-cap stocks have managed to outperform both their large and small-cap counterparts. They've done this with the same volatility as small caps and, over the last decade, they've grown earnings at around 7.5% per annum - more than double that of the small and large-cap indices.  So, why is this? According to Blackwattle's Tim Riordan and Auscap's Will Mumford, it all comes down to quality. These businesses are more likely to have established themselves with some sort of competitive advantage and have more of a growth runway ahead of them to expand globally.  Meanwhile, two-thirds of the ASX 20 - Australia's largest listed businesses - are either major banks, reliant on China's iron ore demand, or exposed to the declining long-term outlook for oil and gas.  So in this episode, Livewire's James Marlay was joined by Riordan and Mumford for a look at two companies that could push these incumbents out of the ASX 20.  Plus, they also provide a deep dive into the mid-cap segment of the market, the positive factors that investors should look out for, and some of the red flags to have on your radars.  Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 27 March 2024. You can read an edited transcript below.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-stocks-headed-for-the-asx-20-and-2-on-the-way-out/ 

Unless you've been living under a rock, you've probably noticed it's been an incredibly strong six months for global markets. The ASX 200, for instance, has rebounded 13% over the past six months, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have soared 23% and 24% respectively over that same period. Elsewhere in the world, the UK's FTSE 100 has lifted 6% in six months, Japan's Nikkei has skyrocketed 28%, and India's Nifty 50 has enjoyed a 15% bump. All in all, the MSCI World Index (USD) is now 21% higher than it was six months ago. And to think, we haven't even seen Fed rate cuts yet! So, in this episode, Livewire's James Marlay was joined by Blackwattle Investment Partners' Tim Riordan and Auscap Asset Management's Will Mumford for their analysis of three stocks that are yet to participate in the market rally. And just because you can't truly appreciate the highs without the lows (and the good without the bad), we also asked our fund managers to name one soaring darling that they believe will soon run out of steam. Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 27 March 2024. You can read an edited transcript below. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-3-stocks-ready-for-a-rebound-and-2-due-for-a-sell-off Timecodes: 0:00 - Intro 0:30 - Is Orora a buy, hold or sell? 2:54 - Is Endeavour Group a buy, hold or sell? 4:33 - Is Arcadium Lithium a buy, hold or sell? 7:02 - Tim Riordan's stock that will run out of steam 7:53 - Will Mumford's stock that will run out of steam

In 2016, Bain & Company found that the companies most successful at maintaining profit growth over the long term disproportionately were companies where the founder was still running the business, still involved on its board, or where the principles the founder originally put in place persisted. That's because founders possessed these three traits: Business insurgency - A unique feature or capability that gives a business purpose, waging war on industry norms on behalf of its clients. A "front line obsession" - A focus on the details at the front line and culture. The "owner's mindset" - Possessing the speed to act quickly and taking personal responsibility for risk and cost.  So, which founder-led stocks are flashing buy signals on the ASX?  In this episode, Livewire's James Marlay was joined by Blackwattle's Tim Riordan and Auscap's Will Mumford to find out.  Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 27 March 2024.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-undervalued-founder-led-stocks

By now, you’re probably aware of the stats highlighting the growth of ETFs in Australia (if not, they’re available here).  Alright, alright already, we get it… they’re very popular. But just because something is popular, doesn’t always mean it is good, or that people know how to use it effectively (think Q-tips, running shoes, and Taylor Swift songs). So, for this latest episode of Buy Hold Sell, we reached out to two advisors - people actually using these products in client portfolios – to get their take on the good, the bad, and the ugly across various factors and investment styles. Be warned: When long-time friends Adam Dawes from Shaw and Partners and Andrew Wielandt from DP Wealth Advisory are together in the same room, there are often a few laughs to be had. But you will also get practical and sound guidance, free from any spin – these two call it how they see it. So make sure to watch the video to find out Adam and Andrew's top ETFs for growth, income and value - as well as some they're cautious on. 

Around 51% of Australians (or 10.2 million people) hold investments outside their homes and superannuation, according to the ASX. Of these investors, around 20% (or 2 million people) use exchange-traded funds (or ETFs) - up from 15% in 2020. Investor interest in low-cost, liquid and diversified ETFs has seen assets under management in the industry explode over the last decade, with its market cap now reaching close to $190 billion. In fact, in the last 12 months alone, the market cap of the Australian ETF industry has surged 35.5% (or by $49.6 billion). Given more investors are using ETFs than ever before, Livewire decided it would be worthwhile to go back to basics, reaching out to two ETF aficionados for their top tricks and tips on investing in these listed vehicles. In this episode, Shaw and Partners' Adam Dawes and DP Wealth Advisory's Andrew Wielandt answer the internet's most common questions on ETFs. Plus, they also each name the one ETF they believe "rules them all". Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 13 March 2024. You can read an edited transcript below. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/answering-the-internet-s-most-common-etf-questions 

There are now more than two million Australians using exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to invest, an increase of 7% compared to 2022 (according to Betashares).  As of the end of February, there was $189.4 billion invested across 359 ETFs, and with BlackRock estimating the market could more than double by 2027, it seems there's no stopping the explosive growth of the low-cost, easily accessible ETF market.  So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Shaw and Partners Adam Dawes and DP Wealth Advisory's Andrew Wielandt for their analysis of Livewire and Market Index readers' top-tipped ETFs for 2024.  For most of your ETFs, our financial advisers provide similar calls - but there's one in particular that has them divided - and it's a doozy.  Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 13 March 2024. You can read the edited transcript below.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-your-top-tipped-etfs-for-2024    Timecodes:  0:00 - Intro 0:31 - Is the Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ) a buy, hold or sell? 1:36 - Is the Vanguard Australian Shares Index ETF (ASX: VAS) a buy, hold or sell? 2:48 - Is the Betashares Global Cybersecurity ETF (ASX: HACK) a buy, hold or sell? 4:14 - Is the VanEck MSCI International Quality ETF (ASX: QUAL) a buy, hold or sell? 5:24 - Is the iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV) a buy, hold or sell? 6:38 - Is the Vaneck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (ASX: MOAT) a buy, hold or sell? 8:05 - Is the Global X Fang+ ETF (ASX: FANG) a buy, hold or sell? 9:55 - Is the Vanguard Australian Shares High Yield ETF (ASX: VHY) a buy, hold or sell? 11:49 - Is the Global X Physical Gold ETF (ASX: GOLD) a buy, hold or sell? 12:58 - Is the Betashares Global Uranium ETF (ASX: URNM) a buy, hold or sell?

Growth stocks have been off to the races over the last few months, with the S&P/ASX 200 Growth Index rebounding 14% since hitting a low at the end of October 2023. Over that same time period, growth stocks like Megaport (up 52%), NEXTDC (up 44%), REA Group (up 28%), WiseTech Global (up 60%), and Lovisa (up 76%) - among many others - have all skyrocketed.  While I am not so sure that there are many ways to skin a cat, there are many ways to measure growth - think sales growth, revenue growth, earnings per share growth, dividend growth, and more.  So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Regal's Jessica Farr-Jones and Spheria's Brittany Isakka for their analysis of three stocks with trailing 12-month earnings per share (EPS) growth of more than 100%. You'll learn whether these stocks can continue to push earnings to the limit over the year ahead. Plus, our guests also name an emerging growth darling within their portfolios that they are backing over the next 12 months.  Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 28 February 2024. You can read an edited transcript below:  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-of-the-asx-s-fastest-growing-stocks/  

How do you avoid the small-cap potholes and identify the fast-lane stocks on the highway to success?  In this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Regal Funds Management's Jessica Farr-Jones and Spheria Asset Management's Brittany Isakka for their tips and tricks for investing in emerging ASX-listed stocks.  They also share their outlook on small and micro-caps for the year ahead, the recent major changes they have made to portfolios, and two stocks they are backing with exciting growth trajectories over the next five years.  Plus, because this anonymous writer loves a dash of drama, they also name one stock that they believe can no longer deliver growth for investors.  Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday, 28 February 2024. You can read an edited transcript below. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/how-to-invest-in-small-and-micro-caps-and-4-emerging-stocks-for-the-next-5-years 

If rates have peaked, which local cash rate futures indicate they have, long-duration growth names, small-cap stocks, and cyclicals are likely to continue to recover from here.  That said, there are some risks to that outlook - particularly given it's the market consensus. So in this episode, we'll be putting some of the ASX's up-and-coming small-cap growth and cyclical stocks to the test.  These small-cap stocks have had a stellar year, having risen an average of 117%. So can they do it again over the coming 12 months?    To find out, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Regal Funds Management's Jessica Farr-Jones and Spheria Asset Management's Brittany Isakka for their analysis of Life360 (ASX: 360), Temple & Webster (ASX: TPW) and HUB24 (ASX: HUB).  Plus, our guests each name a small-cap stock that they believe could be headed for large-cap status over the years to come.  Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 28 February 2024. You can read an edited transcript below. https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-small-stocks-headed-for-large-cap-status 

When it comes to income, you need a recipe for success. Sure, term deposits are cooking up around 5% yields right now, but for income-hungry investors, 5% may just not cut it.  That's where equity income comes in. The yield on the market itself has been around 4-5% over the last 20 years - and a diversified portfolio of stocks with rising and sustainable dividends and earnings growth can deliver far more income than that.  Then there are franking credits, which add a little extra flavour to investors' portfolios - and typically, an additional 2% in yield.  So, in this episode, we're serving up some of the market's dividend darlings and throwing the scraps (stocks with falling dividends) into the trash.  Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by IML's Michael O'Neill and Plato Investment Management's Dr Don Hamson for their analysis of three stocks with impressive 1-year forward yields.   Plus, they also name one stock they believe could see its dividends on the chopping block in 2024.  **Please note that this episode was filmed before the recent announcement regarding ANZ's takeover approval of SUN by the ACCC.**   Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday, February 14, 2024. You can read an edited transcript below.   https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-3-stocks-with-dividends-on-the-rise-and-2-on-the-chopping-block/     

Over the 12 months to the end of December, housing costs rose 6.1%, alcohol and tobacco prices lifted 6.6%, medical costs bumped up 5.1%, and insurance and financial services prices soared 8.1%. We also spent more on food and non-alcoholic beverages, more on transport, and more on education.* All this is to say that it costs a lot more to be alive today than it did 12 months ago, and this anonymous writer is starting to feel the bite. Sure, inflation is finally starting to cool, but you would be hard-pressed to find someone whose lifestyle hasn't been dampened by higher rates.  So this episode of Buy Hold Sell is focused on making your money work a little harder for you.  We've reached out to two income specialists in the form of Dr Don Hamson from Plato Investment Management and Michael O'Neill from IML, for their top tips and tricks for helping you generate more bang for your buck in 2024. They share the stocks that have sustainable yields, name a few that don't, teach you how to avoid the traps that plague dividend-hungry investors, and last but not least, name one stock that they believe every income investor should hold in 2024. Note: This episode was filmed on Wednesday 14 February 2024.

Global markets soared to new heights in 2023, with the MSCI World Index (AUD) lifting 23.2%. Lucky for income-hungry investors, this saw dividends grow with it, with payouts up 8.9% in Aussie dollar terms, according to Plato Investment Management.  While the majority of investors around the globe enjoyed increased dividend payouts in 2023 (compared to 2022), Australian investors were among the few who received less bang for their buck during the year, with dividend payouts falling 5.4%. Despite this, Australia was still the fifth-highest dividend-paying country in the world in the fourth quarter.  So, where can investors generate more dosh for their dollar in 2024? Particularly as the cost of living continues to bite our bottom lines?  In this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by Australia's two "Dividend Doctors" - Dr Don Hamson from Plato Investment Management and Michael O'Neill from IML.  They run the ruler over three stocks with high expected one-year forward yields in 2024. Plus, they each name one stock that they believe could announce a monster dividend in the year ahead. Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 14 February 2024. You can read the edited transcript below.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/buy-hold-sell-5-stocks-with-monster-dividends-in-2024/ 

Given the underperformance of small and mid-caps since 2021, and the fact that central banks have tipped the end of the rate-hiking cycle, many money managers are spruiking the coming wave of capital that could enter the smaller end of the market in 2024.  While small caps tend to outperform post-recession - and we haven't seen one of those - the Small Ordinaries Index has already rebounded around 16% since hitting a low at the end of October. So is there more where that came from?  To find out, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by T. Rowe Price's Randal Jenneke and Tribeca's Jun Bei Liu for their analysis of five of Livewire and Market Index readers' top-tipped small and mid-cap stocks for 2024.  There's definitely a theme with this list - all of the stocks are either uranium darlings or biotech stars. In 2023, these five stocks delivered an average return of 90%. So there's high hopes that they can do the same over the year ahead.  Plus, we also asked our guests to name two small stocks that they believe could outperform in 2024.  Note: This episode was recorded on Wednesday 31 January 2024. 

Last year, we asked two fund managers what they would do if they could start completely from scratch. It seemed to hit a nerve with our readers, with the episode turning out to be the most popular of the year. It's likely because we all, at some point in our investment journeys, have cursed the day we bought a particular stock (or let's face it, stocks) - and wished, wholeheartedly, that we could start over. Facing this dilemma, some investors may sell everything and give up for good. Others may just watch on as those losing positions become smaller and smaller pains in their portfolios.  However, it's far better to review your holdings, have an honest conversation with yourself about what worked and what didn't, and develop a plan so that you can better stick to your strategy over the year ahead.  So in this episode, Livewire's Ally Selby was joined by T. Rowe Price's Randal Jenneke and Tribeca's Jun Bei Liu for a full portfolio reset.  They will share the headwinds they believe you should keep on your radar in 2024 - particularly as the ASX 200 hits a new all-time high, the key opportunities they have identified today, as well as three stocks they would own if they could start completely from scratch.  Plus, unless you invested all your life savings in NVIDIA last year, we've likely all made some mistakes throughout 2023. So, our guests share the most painful position in their portfolio from 2023 - and what they learnt from it.  Note: This episode was filmed on 31 January 2024. You can read an edited transcript below.  https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/6-stocks-for-a-full-portfolio-reset-in-2024/