CFB Talks Digital Assets

In this week's CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 1, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA for a discussion spanning macro, global rates and on-chain markets.BEA revisions to how it prices portfolio management, software and legal services helped pull August core PCE down to 3.0%, below the 3.3% consensus, and October rate hike odds fell to roughly 35%. The UK 30-year gilt yield crossed 6% for the first time since 1998. Crypto kept rallying after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15.The team ties these threads to the central finding of the Q4 2026 Market Outlook, "Numbers Over Narrative." Since June 30, the ten highest-revenue tokens in the CF investable universe returned about 80% on average, against roughly 18% for the ten lowest. The Outlook is free at cfbenchmarks.com under Research and Insights.Chapters:00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome00:49 – August Core PCE: Softer Inflation or a New Ruler?07:39 – October Rate Hike Odds Halve, December Still Priced In09:46 – September Scorecard: The CF DeFi Composite Outruns the Broad Market11:21 – Why Crypto Rallied Through a Failed Clarity Vote19:20 – UK 30-Year Gilt Hits 6%: Fiscal Stress or Higher Real Yields?23:20 – Interest Expense, Treasury Buybacks & the Intervention Question28:51 – What to Watch: Peripheral Spreads, Auction Tails & the TGA31:05 – Bond ETF Inflows, Pensions & the Coupon Case for Duration36:15 – Q4 Outlook: Numbers Over Narrative37:06 – Macro Backdrop: Thin Consumer Cushion & the Fed's Path40:55 – Revenue to Be Rewarded: Fee Switches & Token Returns43:30 – Tokenized Equities Scale Toward $3 Billion46:43 – Beyond Crypto: Single Stock Perps & 24/7 Markets48:18 – U.S. Perps Ahead: HIP-3, Retail vs. Institutions & Producer Hedging52:14 – Bitcoin 10-Year Capital Market Assumptions Update55:07 – Week Ahead: Jobs, FOMC Minutes, Senate Recess, ETF Flows & Treasury Auctions

In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded September 24, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk are joined by Bitwise Europe's Head of Research André Dragosch and Research Analyst Max Shannon to unpack the two teams' joint report, "The Bitcoin Bottom Explained."With the US 10-year yield above 5.1% and the Fed back in hiking mode, the panel first weighs whether the sovereign bond rout spills over into equities and crypto. The conversation then turns to the two independent frameworks, Bitwise's on-chain model and the CF Benchmarks market cycle engine, that both point to June 30 at $58,000 as the likely cycle low, before stress-testing the bear case and closing with the week ahead.Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Welcome: Bitwise Europe Joins the Space 02:29 – The Global Sovereign Bond Rout 07:26 – MOVE vs VIX: A Bond-Equity Disconnect 09:28 – Is the Fed Behind the Curve? The Shadow Rate Signal 12:07 – Crypto Check-In: ETF Flows & Key Levels14:44 – CME Basis Expansion & the ETH/BTC Rotation 19:45 – The Bitcoin Bottom Explained23:31 – Bitwise's On-Chain Model: Seller Exhaustion Meets Demand 26:01 – CFB's Market Cycle Engine: Regimes, Breadth & Thrust 32:56 – Forward Returns & Regime-Flip Alpha 39:16 – Steelmanning the Bears: Is Another Leg Down Possible? 42:58 – M2 Growth, Correlations & the Decoupling Debate 46:19 – The Alligator Jaw: Bitcoin vs Global Money Supply 47:38 – AI Equity Rollover Risk51:58 – Week Ahead: Key Things to Watch

In a CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded September 3, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, and CF Benchmarks Head of Product Thomas Erdosi.Fed rate hike odds for the September 16 meeting swung from roughly two-thirds to a coin flip inside 24 hours, after Governor Waller signaled support for holding steady and Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks got read as more hawkish than intended. The panel works through what the data between now and the decision, NFP tomorrow and CPI on September 11, would need to show to settle the debate, then turns to Bitcoin's push through $80,000 on the broadest market breadth of the year. The back half covers the Middle East-driven oil spike and its interaction with the debasement trade, a sizable new Treasury buyback program, and closes with a first look at two new benchmarks: the CME CF Crypto Market Index and CME CF Emerging Crypto Index, plus the launch of the CF Benchmarks Oracle for on-chain price verification.Chapters: 00:00 – Disclaimer & Team Welcome 00:49 – September Rate Hike Odds Swing to a Coin Flip 03:09 – Base Case: Hold, With Oil as the Wildcard 05:41 – Warsh's Ambiguity and the FOMC's Historical Hiking Pattern 13:24 – Bitcoin's Push Above $80K 16:02 – Options Positioning Turns Less Lopsided to the Downside 17:23 – Key Levels: Eyeing a Push Toward $90K 18:40 – ETF Flows and MicroStrategy's Return to Buying 24:20 – CME vs. IBIT: Where the Call Buying Is Concentrated 28:06 – Tracking Vol With the CME CF Bitcoin Volatility Index 29:25 – Middle East Escalation and the Debasement Trade 34:07 – Germany's Fiscal Pivot and European Defense Spending 37:01 – Market Breadth: The Broadest Rally of the Year 39:08 – Getting Altcoin Exposure Beyond Bitcoin and Ether 40:14 – Inside the New CME CF Crypto Market and Emerging Crypto Indices 41:23 – Index Construction: Durability, Product Fit and Filters 46:02 – The CF Benchmarks Oracle Goes On-Chain 48:57 – Week Ahead: NFP, CPI, Fed Decision & Treasury Auctions

In this CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded August 27, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, Senior Product Manager Cristian Isac and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk, along with two guests: David Lawant, Head of Research at Anchorage Digital, and Pascal Hügli, Crypto Investment Manager at Maerki Baumann and author of the Less Noise, More Signal Substack.The debasement trade is back. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of the long end buyback program on August 19, Bitcoin led the response and gold barely moved. The panel works through what that repricing means for positioning: whether debasement is a trade or a secular regime, what the CME basis, options skew and breadth data say about where we sit in the cycle, why fund flows point to capital rotating out of AI and back into crypto, and what to expect as Jackson Hole convenes on financial innovation and payments.Chapters:00:00 – Intro & Panel Welcome04:29 – Defining the Debasement Trade: Henry VIII, Nero & a $40 Trillion Debt Load06:13 – Buybacks, the TGA & Bessent's "Whatever It Takes" Signal10:21 – Bitcoin Leads, Gold Lags: Trade or Secular Regime?11:11 – Anatomy of an Oversold Market: Apathy, Bad News & a $1 Billion Volume Day17:25 – Fund Flows: The DRAM ETF as an AI Rotation Proxy20:21 – IBIT Volume, $2.5 Billion of Flows & Why This Tape Looks Different22:22 – CME Basis Off Multi-Year Lows: Fast Money Moves First24:50 – The Coinbase Premium & Waiting on the Broader Market26:42 – Basis Trade Mechanics: Who Takes the Other Side?30:40 – Forward Call Skew: Buying Upside Instead of Protection33:39 – Inside the Market Cycle Engine: Breadth & Momentum38:30 – Is It Durable? August's Rally Compared to May's40:15 – Beyond Bitcoin: Hyperliquid Onshoring & the DeFi Revenue Complex44:24 – Altcoin Catch-Up, CLARITY Act Odds & "Buyback as a Business Model"48:11 – Week Ahead: Jackson Hole Turns to Payments & Financial Innovation57:00 – Launching the CF Benchmarks GPU Rental Index1:01:04 – Closing Remarks

In this week's CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded August 20, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, with CF Benchmarks CEO Sui Chung joining as a special guest for a landmark product announcement.The panel unveils two new benchmarks, the CME CF Crypto Market Index (CMI) and the CME CF Emerging Crypto Index (ECI), set to launch on August 31, before turning to a frenetic twenty-four hours in markets: a US Treasury long end buyback increase that failed to hold yields down for even one session, a sharp Bitcoin breakout past key resistance, and a first look at the July FOMC minutes ahead of next week's Jackson Hole symposium, where Kevin Warsh takes the podium.Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome01:33 – Breaking: CME and CF Benchmarks Announce Two New Crypto Indices03:15 – Why Build Both a Market Index and an Emerging Leaders Index?08:47 – Inside CMI's Universe: From 1,000 Tokens to the Top 1214:57 – Product Market Fit: The Rule That Sets CMI Apart20:19 – Unveiling ECI: Crypto's Satellite Sleeve26:29 – ECI by the Numbers: Fees, TVL, Users & the DeFi Leaders Behind Them28:32 – Why Launch Now? Regulatory Clarity Meets Market Timing31:27 – Treasury's $4 Billion Buyback Bet Meets the Bessent Put35:47 – Deficits, Duration & Why Crypto Is Outperforming Big Tech41:13 – Bitcoin's Breakout: Reflexivity and the Levels to Watch48:55 – FOMC Minutes Recap: AI Inflation Chatter and a Balance Sheet Task Force52:35 – Jackson Hole Preview: What Will Warsh Say?1:01:30 – Week Ahead: PCE, Fund Flows, MSTR & the Treasury Auction Slate