China Considered

Host Dr. Elizabeth Economy sits down with Rhodium Group Co-founder Daniel Rosen for an in-depth look at the current state of the Chinese economy, the challenges it will face going forward and how a second Trump presidency may affect it.    With an economy that is currently facing reduced growth, a cratering real estate sector, and increased scrutiny from US and EU counterparts over its exports of overcapacity in EVs, Rosen describes the issues at the heart of the problem: a failure to meaningfully reform the fiscal system, including rebalancing the share of central and local government revenues, weak domestic consumption and over-reliance on investment and exports, and high levels of local government debt. Rosen also outlines the challenges China faces on the global stage with its grand-scale infrastructure initiative, the Belt and Road.   Rosen concludes that without a serious reboot of economic reform and opening the Chinese economy will only continue to lose steam.   The two also discuss the effects of what a second Trump presidency, and tariffs up to 60%, may bring to China. And while it may not be time to press the panic button yet, an expected increase in tariffs is almost certain to have major macroeconomic effects. ABOUT THE SPEAKERS Daniel H. Rosen is the co-founder of Rhodium Group and leads the firm’s work on China. Mr. Rosen has worked professionally on China’s domestic economy and global commercial relations since 1992. He is widely recognized for his research on US-China relations and Asian commercial dynamics. He is affiliated with numerous think tanks focused on international economics and is an Adjunct Associate Professor at Columbia University. From 2000-2001, Mr. Rosen was Senior Adviser for International Economic Policy at the White House National Economic Council and National Security Council. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Committee on US-China Relations. A native of New York City, Mr. Rosen graduated with distinction from the graduate School of Foreign Service of Georgetown University (MSFS) and with honors in Asian Studies and Economics from the University of Texas, Austin (BA). Elizabeth Economy is the Hargrove Senior Fellow and co-director of the Program on the US, China, and the World at the Hoover Institution. From 2021-2023, she took leave from Hoover to serve as the senior advisor for China to the US secretary of commerce. Before joining Hoover, she was the C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and director, Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of four books on China, including most recently The World According to China (Polity, 2021), and the co-editor of two volumes. She serves on the boards of the National Endowment for Democracy and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. She is a member of the Aspen Strategy Group and Council on Foreign Relations and serves as a book reviewer for Foreign Affairs.  RELATED SOURCES End of the Line: The Cost of Faltering Reforms A Diversification Framework for China Rhodium Group FOLLOW OUR GUEST ON SOCIAL MEDIA Dan Rosen on X: x.com/rhodiumdan Dan Rosen on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/daniel-rosen-2236b36 ABOUT THE SERIES China Considered with Elizabeth Economy is a Hoover Institution podcast series that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.

In this episode, Elizabeth Economy, Matt Pottinger, and Evan Medeiros discuss where the US-China relationship stands at the end of the Biden administration, to the second Trump administration’s possible approach to China policy, as Trump has already promised significant increases on tariffs of Chinese imports.  ABOUT THE SPEAKERS Matt Pottinger is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. He previously served in the Trump Administration for four years in senior roles on the National Security Council staff, including as Senior Director for Asia and Deputy National Security Advisor, where he coordinated the full spectrum of national security policy. Previously, Pottinger worked in China as a reporter for Reuters and the Wall Street Journal. He then fought in Iraq and Afghanistan as a US Marine during three combat deployments between 2007 and 2010. Following active duty, he founded and led an Asia-focused risk consultancy, ran Asia research at an investment fund in New York and is now at Garnaut Global. Dr. Evan S. Medeiros is the Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies in the School of Foreign Service and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in U.S.-China Studies. He has published several books related to China and East Asia and regularly provides advice to global corporations and commentary to the international media. He was also President Obama's top advisor on the Asia-Pacific, serving as the Senior Director for Asia from 2013 to 2015 and was responsible for coordinating U.S. policy in the region across the areas of diplomacy, defense policy, economic policy, and intelligence. Elizabeth Economy is the Hargrove Senior Fellow and co-director of the Program on the US, China, and the World at the Hoover Institution. From 2021-2023, she took leave from Hoover to serve as the senior advisor for China to the US secretary of commerce. Before joining Hoover, she was the C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and director, Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of four books on China, including most recently The World According to China (Polity, 2021), and the co-editor of two volumes. She serves on the boards of the National Endowment for Democracy and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. She is a member of the Aspen Strategy Group and Council on Foreign Relations and serves as a book reviewer for Foreign Affairs.   RELATED SOURCES Matt Pottinger Book: The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan Foreign Affairs Article: No Substitute for Victory: America’s Competition With China Must Be Won, Not Managed Evan Medeiros Book: Cold Rivals Foreign Affairs Article: The Delusion of Peak China: America Can’t Wish Away Its Toughest Challenger ABOUT THE SERIES China Considered with Elizabeth Economy is a Hoover Institution podcast series that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.