ChinaTalk

Our third defense pod, I guess we're really doing it now. Like and subscribe if you're just here for our Civil War coverage. Guests include: Tony Stark, Army vet who writes https://www.breakingbeijing.com/ Justin McIntosh, former Green beret who writes https://justinmc.substack.com/ Eric Robinson, lawyer and Army vet who spent time in OSC, JSOC and the NCTC Outtro Music: After going through twenty different John Brown's Body recordings this one was my favorite, an acapela rendition by Deborah Anne Goss https://open.spotify.com/track/20id0r7ZlSIFxKifoEFlfC?si=0d2a59f7dfe142fa Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

For the 80th anniversary of the Allied victory over Japan, ChinaTalk interviewed Ian Toll about his Pacific War trilogy, which masterfully brings America’s bloodiest war — and the world’s only nuclear war — to life. Ian’s detailed scholarship creates a multisensory historical experience, from the metallic tang of radiation after the bombs were dropped to the stench of Pacific battlefields. Ian’s forthcoming book, The Freshwater War, will explore the naval campaign the US fought against Britain on the Great Lakes between 1812 and 1815. Today our conversation covers…. How Ian innovates when writing historical narratives, Whether Allied victory was predetermined after the US entered the war, Why the Kamikaze were born out of resource scarcity, and whether Japanese military tactics were suicidal as well, How foreign wars temporarily stabilized Japan’s revolutionary domestic politics, How American military leadership played the media and politics to become national heroes, Lessons from 1945 for a potential Taiwan invasion. Cohosting is Chris Miller, author of Chip War. Thanks to the US-Japan Foundation for sponsoring this podcast. Outro music: The Mills Brothers - Till Then (YouTube link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dan Wang at long last makes his solo ChinaTalk debut! We’re here to discuss and celebrate his first book, Breakneck. We get into… Engineering states vs lawyerly societies, The competing legacies of the 1980s in China, the decade which saw brutal repression via the One Child Policy and Tiananmen alongside intellectual debate, cultural vibrancy, and rock and roll, Methods of knowing China, from the People’s Daily and Seeking Truth to on-the-ground research, How to compare the values of China’s convenient yet repressive society with the chaotic pluralism of the USA, What Li Qiang’s career post-Shanghai lockdowns can tell us about the value of loyalty vs competence in Xi’s China. Outro music: Mozart - The Marriage of Figaro (YouTube link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Israeli/Ukranian-style bolt from the blue drone attacks freak out Eric. I don't buy Silicon Shield. Lessons from Waymo on about the future of warfare. Intertextual analysis of the Mick Ryan interview. Fed Supernova, which is a terrible name for a conference, and counterintelligence. Has John Bolton taken enough Ls already? I guess not. Guests include: Tony Stark, Army vet who writes https://www.breakingbeijing.com/ Justin McIntosh, former Green beret who writes https://justinmc.substack.com/ Eric Robinson, lawyer and Army vet who spent time in OSC, JSOC and the NCTC Outtro Music: Bach, Chris Thile, Partita 1 in B Minor 1002: VI. Double https://open.spotify.com/track/780bh3MspPK19jVDD7EIKu?si=4809af67eda34c38 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Are GPUs being smuggled into China? Nvidia says no. But Steve Burke, editor in chief of Gamer Nexus, has traced out the entire smuggling chain in an epic three-hour YouTube documentary. He filmed another three-hour documentary exploring the impact of tariffs on America’s supply chain ecosystem. In today’s conversation, we discuss… Steve’s investigative process, including how he found people in mainland China willing to speak on the record about black market GPUs, The magnitude of smuggling, weaknesses in enforcement, and crudeness of US restrictions, China’s role in manufacturing the GPUs they aren’t allowed to buy, How Gamers Nexus monetizes content, What it takes to stand up to Nvidia as an independent journalist. Check out ChinaTalk's previous work on the history of Nvidia here. As of August 21st, YouTube has removed the full documentary. Gamers Nexus is working on getting the video back on YouTube, but you can watch it here in the meantime. Outro music: Jim and Jesse - Ballad of Thunder Road (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mick Ryan is a retired major general in the Australian army and author of three books — War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict, White Sun War, which is a piece of fiction about a near-future Taiwan war, and The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire. He also writes the excellent Futura Doctrina Substack, which has taught me a tremendous amount over the past few years. The way Mick synthesizes history and contemporary conflict makes it one of my few true must-read Substacks. In today’s conversation, we discuss… Lessons from the history of warfare, and how to apply them to modern conflict, Why superweapons don’t win wars, and how the human dimension of war will shape military applications of AI, Why economic integration alone cannot prevent a US-China war, The role of deception and the limits of battlefield surveillance, with case studies in Ukraine and Afghanistan, Mick’s four filters for applying lessons from Ukraine to a Taiwan contingency, and the underappreciated role of Taiwanese public opinion in shaping CCP goals. Thanks to the Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology for sponsoring this podcast. Outro music: Elvis Presley — Down by the Riverside (YouTube Link) Reading recommendations: Paul Kennedy — The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers and Engineers of Victory: The Problem Solvers Who Turned the Tide in the Second World War Norman F. Dixon — On the Psychology of Military Incompetence  Aimée Fox — Learning to Fight: Military Innovation and Change in the British Army, 1914–1918  Williamson Murray & Allan R. Millett — Military Innovation in the Interwar Period and Military Effectiveness trilogy  Trent Hone — Learning War: The Evolution of Fighting Doctrine in the U.S. Navy, 1898–1945  Brent L. Sterling — Other People’s Wars: The U.S. Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts (2021) Dima Adamsky — The Culture of Military Innovation: The Impact of Cultural Factors on the Revolution in Military Affairs in Russia, the US, and Israel (2010) Meir Finkel — On Flexibility: Recovery from Technological and Doctrinal Surprise on the Battlefield and Military Agility: Ensuring Rapid and Effective Transition from Peace to War Andrew Krepinevich —  The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers R.V. Jones —  The Wizard War: British Scientific Intelligence 1939-1945 Francis Hoffman — Mars Adapting: Military Change During War You can find more syllabi on Mick Ryan's Substack (here and here) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jon, Doug, Dylan and Wei join the chat to talk export controls and GPT5. Books Doug and I like: Jonathan Spence's Search for Modern China Gavan Daws' Shoal of Time Joseph Heinrich's The Secret of Our Success Outtro Music: Europhia II from kkluv's new album https://open.spotify.com/track/61kEkWr0gQrcDwd6uIbxQ1?si=190526b87e96487c Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

So we're selling AI chips to China now. Chris Miller, author of Chip Wars, and Lennart Heim at RAND join to discuss: What are the tradeoffs involved in selling Why China is talking like they don't even want the H20s Why selling HBM and semiconductor manufacturing equipment might be an even bigger deal than Nvidia chips Check out the Horizon Fellowship to work in DC on emerging tech policy issues like AI chip export controls! https://horizonpublicservice.org/applications-open-for-2026-horizon-fellowship-cohort/ Outtro Music: It's a Shame, The Spinners, 1970 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRQQudHLi0A&ab_channel=TheSpinners-Topic Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We talk AGI nihilism in the Taiwan fight, combined arms breach, and Palmer Luckey's Taiwan speech. Part 2 explores Detachment 201, the evolution of the Office of Strategic Capital, and the MP Materials rare earths deal. Guests include: Tony Stark, Army vet who writes https://www.breakingbeijing.com/ Justin McIntosh, former Green beret who writes https://justinmc.substack.com/ Eric Robinson, lawyer and Army vet who spent time in OSC, JSOC and the NCTC Outtro Music: Last Chance, Mary Cox https://open.spotify.com/track/3LAOSqy3DoiA1OiPxC9yMe?si=da00b16696f042f8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To the Success of Our Hopeless Cause: The Many Lives of the Soviet Dissident Movement — the Pulitzer Prize-winning book by Professor Ben Nathans — is perhaps the sharpest, richest, and funniest account of the Soviet dissident movement ever written. Today, we’ll interview Nathans alongside the legendary Ian Johnson, whose recent book Sparks explores the Chinese dissident ecosystem. We discuss… The central enigma of the Soviet dissident movement — their boldness in the face of hopeless odds, How cybernetics, Wittgenstein, and one absent-minded professor shaped the intellectual backbone of post-Stalinist dissent, Why the Soviet Union was such fertile ground for dark humor, and why humor played a vital role for Soviet resistance movements, How the architect of Stalin's show trials laid the groundwork for, ironically, a more professional legal system known as “socialist legality,” Similarities and differences between post-Stalinist and post-Maoist systems in dealing with opposition, Plus: Why Brezhnev read The Baltimore Sun, how onion-skin paper became a tool of rebellion, and why China’s leaders study the Soviet collapse more seriously than anyone else. Today's episode is sponsored by Alaya Tea, cofounded by ChinaTalk listener Smita Satiani. Alaya Tea ships Indian teas straight from the source, and their products are 100% plastic-free. My favorite is their Assam black tea, which I've been using to make a fantastic milk tea. Go to ⁠alayatea.co⁠ and use the code CHINATALKTEA for free shipping. Outro music: Владимир Высоцкий - Охота на волков (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What does it take to make a living betting on politics? Can prediction markets offer insights about the future that other analyses cannot? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Domer, a professional prediction markets bettor. Domer is the number one trader by volume on Polymarket, and he’s been trading since 2007. He initially entered this world through poker, but now makes bets about who will win foreign elections, whether wars will start, and whether bills will become law. We discuss… Why some issues — like Romanian elections, the NYC mayoral race, or Zelenskyy’s outfit choices — can attract hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume, Systematic biases in prediction markets, including why they overestimate the likelihood of a Taiwan contingency, What happens to prediction markets in the absence of insider trading regulations, Why prediction markets are still a solo endeavor, and what a profit-maximizing team of traders would look like, Bonus: How betting markets backfired on Romanian nationalists, what AI can teach you about betting, and other insights on winning from one of Domer’s contemporaries. Outro music: Bob Dylan - Rambling, Gambling Willie (YouTube Link) This episode is brought to you by ElevenLabs. I’ve been on the hunt for years for the perfect reader app that puts AI audio at the center of its design. Over the past few months, the ElevenReader app has earned a spot on my iPhone's home screen and now gets about 30 minutes of use every day. I plow through articles using Eleven Reader’s beautiful voices and love having Richard Feynman read me AI news stories — as well as, you know, Matilda every once in a while, too. I’m also a power user of its bookmark feature, which the ElevenReader team added after I requested it on Twitter. ChinaTalk’s newsletter content even comes preloaded in the feed. Check out the ElevenReader app if you’re looking for the best mobile reader on the market. Oh, and by the way — if you ever need to transcribe anything, ElevenLabs’  Scribe model has transformed our workflow for getting transcripts out to you on the newsletter. It’s crossed the threshold from “95% good” to “99.5% amazing,” saving our production team hours every week. Check it out the next time you need something transcribed. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tobias Harris of the Observing Japan substack https://observingjapan.substack.com/ joins to discuss the latest Japanese election, how we got here, and what happens next. How Abe's assassination led to the LDP's three years of struggles What the latest results in the upper house election tell us about domestic Japanese politics What's the deal with big winners like Kōmeitō and the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) How domestic dynamics tie into US-Japan and China-Japan relations Outtro Music: The Communist Party's 2025 Gender song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V59qOPTe62g&ab_channel=%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E5%85%B1%E7%94%A3%E5%85%9A Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is part two of our series with Joseph Torigian, author of the definitive biography of Xi Zhongxun. This episode traces the inner world of a man navigating power politics, exile, and reform, and the legacy he left his son, Xi Jinping. Against the backdrop of the Great Leap Forward, the Sino-Soviet split, the Cultural Revolution, and reform and opening up, we discuss… The moral dilemmas of a mid-level party cadre, What it’s like to be purged, and why the party prescribes self-criticism as therapy, “Frenemies” in the CCP, Deng Xiaoping’s autocratic side, and the unsung heros of the reform period, How Xi Zhongxun instilled party loyalty and other values in his son, Xi Zhongxun’s return from exile and his complicated relationship with reform, How Chinese leaders think about redemption, guilt, and survival, And a bonus: Why the PRC-produced biopic of Xi Zhongxun is so disappointing — and why his life deserves the Star Wars treatment. Outro music: Teresa Teng - 小城故事 (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Why has Japan fallen out of Trump’s good graces? Will Japan close a deal with the US before tariffs take effect? And how will the upcoming Japanese election impact relations? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Professor Tomohiko Taniguchi, a longtime observer of US-Japan relations and former advisor to the late Shinzo Abe. We discuss… Why 1970s trade competition is still impacting US-Japan relations today, and how Japan could create “Wow factor” when dealing with Donald Trump, How Shinzo Abe used golf, dinner parties, and history lessons to cultivate a close personal friendship with Trump, The roots of Japanese resolve in dealing with PRC aggression, The emergence of Russian disinformation surrounding the Japanese election, The political economy of the Japanese Self-Defence Force, and how Abe managed the controversy surrounding his reinterpretation of Article 9. Co-hosting today is Charles Litchfield of the Atlantic Council. Thanks to the US-Japan Foundation for sponsoring this episode. Outro music: Shinji Tanimura - Left Alone (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Joseph Torigian’s The Party’s Interest Comes First: The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping is a monumental scholarly achievement — easily a contender for one of the best China books of the decade. Joseph’s goal, in his own words, was to “shine as much light into the darkness of the past as possible” to understand the nature of authoritarian politics, and he succeeds beyond my wildest expectations. This biography gives me a feel for Chinese politics that I honestly thought I’d never have. It does an incredible job of digging deep to shed light on some of the most consequential moments in CCP history, as well as conveying what it was like to live as a senior official under Mao and Deng. Reading it was a powerful experience at both an intellectual and human level. We get memorable vignettes, like 15-year-old Xi Zhongxun attempting to assassinate a teacher, or General Peng Dehuai using his shoe to silence Xi Zhongxun’s snoring in their shared bunk. In this interview, we discuss: What we can learn about authoritarianism, the CCP, and China’s future from studying Xi’s father, Torigian’s methodology for uncovering hidden Party history, How the Party became an existential source of meaning, and how it weaponized suffering to paradoxically deepen political loyalty, The arc of Xi Zhongxun’s life — from a young revolutionary to key advocate of reform — and his role during Tiananmen, The interplay of family, love, and career under the all-encompassing shadow of the Party, The role of “Surrogate fathers” and patronage in navigating political ascent, How literature shaped China’s early revolutionaries, and even impacted the Party as we know it today. Co-hosting today is Jon Sine, former ChinaTalk intern. Outro music: The Temptations - Papa Was A Rolling Stone (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nathan Lambert (https://www.interconnects.ai/), Jasmine Sun (https://jasmi.news/) and I kick off a new series 'Overfit' to talk how AI is shaping the future of media, why Nathan just needs $100m to take on Deepseek, and how to make money in this creator economy. Outtro music: Todd Terje, Preben Goes to Acapulco https://open.spotify.com/track/70jWHwvymR4x1PUXXrUD1S Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jake Newby, author of the China music substack Concrete Avalanche, presents his official playlist of China’s best new music. It includes ADHD-inspired hip hop, experimental ambient music from rural China, and Shanghai cold wave, finishing off with a “mind-blowing” hyperpop track. Tracklist: 00:00 ‘Rhyme’ – Rubey Hu 01:02 ‘The Last of the Mohicans’ – SMZB 生命之饼 04:46 ‘秋茄子之味’ – 红发少年杀人事件 09:04 ‘The Wanderer of Renfengli 仁丰里的闲逛者‘ – DaYe 大叶 12:08 ‘back to the pond 1’ – Jian Cui 15:57 ‘Chapter II’ (excerpt) – Chen Mulian et al for xuán yīn 21:13 ‘月光爱人 De Luna Amour’ – 黑木 Heimu 27:27 ‘Ⱪorⱪetteng ⱪobeze / The Kobyz of Korkut 霍尔赫特的库布孜‘ (excerpt) – Mamer 马木尔 35:38 ‘སྒྲོལ་མའི་བསྟོད་པ་། Praise to Tara 度母赞’ – Kalzang Samdrub 37:08 ‘我不知不觉不伦不类’ – 小老虎 J-Fever 39:56 ‘1911 4th Mov. (live) 一九一一 第四回’ (excerpt) – Zhaoze 沼泽 46:55 ‘本该走神的(Should've Been Lost)‘ – 张醒婵 Nono 49:28 ‘失乐园’ – DJ小女孩 DJ Gurl Some of these tracks are available on YouTube! We've aggregated those links on the ChinaTalk Substack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How does Russia prevent uprisings, and what can other authoritarians learn from Moscow’s methods of coup control? For the second anniversary of the Wagner uprising, ChinaTalk interviewed London-based historian Kamil Galeev, who was also a classmate of Jordan’s at Peking University. We discuss… Why the Wagner Group rebelled in 2023, and why the coup attempt ultimately failed, How Wagner shifted the Kremlin’s assessment of internal political challengers, Similarities between post-Soviet doomerism and the American right, Historical examples of foreign policy inflienced by a victimhood mentality, Barriers to Chinese hegemony. Outro Music: Султан Лагучев - Любовь беда (YouTube Link) Today’s post is brought to you by 80,000 Hours, a nonprofit that helps people find fulfilling careers that do good. 80,000 Hours — named for the average length of a career — has been doing in-depth research on AI issues for over a decade, producing reports on how the US and China can manage existential risk, scenarios for potential AI catastrophe, and examining the concrete steps you can take to help ensure AI development goes well. Their research suggests that working to reduce risks from advanced AI could be one of the most impactful ways to make a positive difference in the world. They provide free resources to help you contribute, including: Detailed career reviews for paths like AI safety technical research, AI governance, information security, and AI hardware, A job board with hundreds of high-impact opportunities, A podcast featuring deep conversations with experts like Carl Shulman, Ajeya Cotra, and Tom Davidson, Free, one-on-one career advising to help you find your best fit. To learn more and access their research-backed career guides, visit 80000hours.org/ChinaTalk. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is America cooked? We check in on what clarity the past three months have given us on the long term dynamic between the US and China. Guests include: Peter Harrell, former Biden official who hosts the Security Economics podcast (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/security-economics/id1794022711) Matt Klein of the https://theovershoot.co/ substack Kevin Xu of the https://interconnect.substack.com/ subsctack Outtro music: Emitt Rhodes, Textile Factory, 1970 https://open.spotify.com/track/1JO2jo0Cyg75mmCFlSW2bB?si=1706c809e80b4bd4 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Also, somehow, the Third Temple, twink human sacrifice for the AI labs, and the SemiAnalysis Desi Waifu 3000. Outtro Music (sounded like a let's get dylan a girlfriend prayer to me?) Finding Her, Kushagra, Bharath, Saaheal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZtSnQBsBW0 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices