Climate in the Southwest

In the December (Holiday!) edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the last few months of (warm, mostly dry) weather in the Southwest, what the season may hold given the "weak" La Niña conditions that may (or may not) be sticking around through the early part of 2017, and how the impacts we look for in the Southwest are connected to much larger regional and global phenomena - Atmospheric Rivers & the Polar Vortex (respectively).

In the November edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a range of topics, including: A recap the last month of weather in the Southwest (including our hot and dry October and what the first half of November brought), a look back at the water year (Oct 1 2015 - Sep 30 2016) to discuss how the Southwest fared, and what this perspective lends to our understanding of SW climate, and a look forward to La Niña - what the models are saying, as well as what these patterns might mean for winter in the Southwest.

In this episode of the CLIMAS SW Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the Southwestern monsoon, with an eye towards how various regions of the Southwest fared in terms of storm events and seasonal totals. They also discuss the different events that contribute to seasonal totals during the official monsoon (June 15 - Sept 30), as well as what some of the best case and worst case monsoon totals might look like in a thought experiment regarding monsoon extremes. They close out with a brief discussion of La Niña (or the lack thereof), and a look towards what fall and winter might have in store given the current (uncertain) conditions.

In the August episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the monsoon in the Southwest. They recap the monsoon, they discuss the components that factor into monsoon precipitation patterns and the high degree of spatial and temporal variability of that precipitation, and the way the monsoon can fade or surge as the official season winds down, depending on how the season progresses (and how much tropical storm activity contributes) Note: In what should probably be a running disclaimer for the duration of the monsoon, given the variability and unpredictability of monsoon precipitation, this podcast was recorded prior to the storms that rolled into SW Arizona in the last few days. The most salient point is that Tacna is no longer at 0.00 inches for the monsoon (as Mike mentioned in the podcast). As with last month, we'd like to take credit for the uptick in a region we called out, since these storms have a habit of popping up just after we finish recording (see last two months!), but such is the inherent spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon - if it were easier to track and forecast, it wouldn't be so exciting.

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the monsoon in the Southwest, focusing on the big events that closed out June, and the relatively long "break" that followed for much of July, and the patterns and circulation that drives these (inevitable) breaks, but recognizing that after such a strong start, this extended break was especially disappointing.  They also track the building conditions that point towards an uptick in activity (that has since come to fruition) and highlight how the inherent variability of monsoon activity (and the various components that go into the monsoon) make it so difficult to forecast a few days in advance, much less at a seasonal time scale. Note: this podcast was recorded just prior to the run of storms that fired up in late July, so while Mike and Zack hint at the upcoming storms and moisture (most models were pointed towards an uptick in monsoon activity, their discussion does not cover this latest run of storms (we'll save a discussion of this event for the next podcast). We'd like to take credit for the increased monsoon activity, since these storms have a habit of popping up just after we finish recording (see last month!), but such is the inherent spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon - if it were easier to track and forecast, it wouldn't be so exciting. Note 2: Mike wants to assure listeners that it has rained (quite a lot) at his house since we recorded, and as such, he is in an excellent mood.

In the June 2016 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at May and June to discuss the relatively mild weather of May, the near-record heat in June, and the transition into the monsoon.  In the second half of the podcast, they dive into the weeds on monsoon climatology and the variable spatial and temporal patterns that characterize the monsoon in the Southwest. They highlight what we might expect in the next 90 days, along with a discussion of the difficulty of creating regional monsoon season forecasts (given the high degree of spatial and temporal variability, and the randomness of weather). Please note: we recorded this podcast prior to the run of storms that hit the Southwest in the last week of June. Most of the podcast is focused on a recap of past events, or evergreen discussions of climatological features of the monsoon in the Southwest, but there are a few references to potential monsoon activity and building storms that refer to (at the time of recording) current conditions or forecasts that have already taken place (at time of publishing).

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido cover a side range of topics related to weather and climate in the Southwest, including: -The transition from winter into spring so far with a recap of weather over the past month, including the recent run of milder and wetter weather than we might expect in a normally dry period, -A deeper dive on the ongoing disappointment that was El Niño, by looking closely at a preliminary analysis, and what it begins to tell us in diagnosing what happened with El Niño -An exploration of the wildfire risk potential for this year, and how recent years compare, going back to the 2011 fire season, and -An early start to discussing the monsoon, partly because the season is closer than we might think, but also as a way to divert attention from what Zack is calling the "doom season" (hot and dry conditions leading up to the monsoon).

In the early April edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back at our exceptional El Niño event, which may be standing out for all the wrong reasons - especially in the Southwest. They discuss the anomalously warm and dry conditions the Southwest has experienced since early January, and put this into context regarding our expectations in a strong El Niño year, what might be driving these patterns (and the moisture away from us), and just where that moisture has gone. They also discuss the similarities of the current preciptation pattern to La Niña (i.e. dry in the Southwest and wet in the Northwest) but highlight how this event is very different from La Niña associated atmospheric patterns (even if the precipitation patterns feel like a La Niña year - They point out we're not in a La Niña yet..but that forecasts call for much higher chances of a swing to La Niña by fall of this year. They also look forward to the rest of the spring, including the last gasp of moisture the second week of April, and what this underwhelming El Niño might mean for regional drought, snowpack, and wildfire conditions. We'll be back near the end of April with another podcast episode that takes a more comprehensive look at just how this El Niño event compared to expectations (models and forecasts), and what we've learned from this event.

In the February episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back, and he and Mike Crimmins sit down to talk, you guessed it, El Niño. They recap what we've seen over the past month, and take a closer look at whether this El Niño event is actually underperforming, whether expectations were set too high going into the season (Godzilla, etc.), and what we might expect for the upcoming month if we can ever break out of this high pressure system.

In this episode, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan recap the transitional weather patterns of the last few months of 2015 as we moved from Fall into Winter, and discuss whether this transitional season matched general expectations, given what is expected in an El Niño year. They also discuss what a characteristic southwestern winter pattern looks like, and conclude the podcast with a conversation about how this El Niño event has stacked up so far this winter, and what they anticipate over the next few months. We had a small technical difficulty with the audio quality, but it seems to be mostly fixed. Zack Guido is away on a research project but will join us again in February.

In the December episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido discuss the difficulty of characterizing a climate phenomenon (in this case El Niño) on a weather time scale, especially as media, the general public, and climate scientists are all hungry to explain day to day events in terms of where they fit into larger climate patterns. They go over the recent events of October, November, and early December, before looking forward at what later this Winter is likely to hold in store (hint: all signs still point to a wetter than average winter!).

In the Nov 2015 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back on an anomalously wet October, and in particular the effect of one particular system that made two visits to the Southwest. They also talk about Hurricane Patricia, and the speed at which that tropical system escalated to one of the strongest storms on record. They also talk about October weather in terms of the seasonal transition (between monsoon summer and fall/winter patterns) and the impact of tropical storm systems, as well as the difficulty of attributing specific weather events to longer term patterns (i.e. the El Niño Southern Oscillation). They wrap up by talking about El Niño and the seasonal forecasts, which include projections of above average precipitation in the southwest, as well as a number of global impacts.

In this episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins & Zack Guido recap the 2015 monsoon, (and revisit some of their predictions from earlier this summer). In part 1, they give a quick overview of the monsoon, before taking a closer look at the month by month progression, to track the overall season for what stood out (and what was underwhelming). In part 2, they talk about the nuances associated with the monsoon, including the impacts of El Niño, and eastern pacific tropical storm activity, on the overall monsoon. They conclude with a discussion of the variable nature of each year of the monsoon, and what makes this such an exciting place to live each summer as we watch the monsoon unfold.

In this edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins focus specifically on El Niño and what we can expect going into this fall and winter, given the "strong" status of this El Niño event. Part 1: A look at the El Niño signal, including a look back at what happened in 2014 (and why El Niño didn't start when we thought it would), as well as a look forward for what El Niño might mean regionally and globally. Part 2: A close look at the 97-98 El Niño event, and what happened in the Southwest during the last "strong" El Niño event...can we expect more of the same? What might be different? Part 3: A look at the El Niño models going into Fall 2015 and Winter 2016 - How certain are we about increased precipitation this winter? When might we see this increase? Any chance for a "boringly average" year, despite the El Niño signal? We'll be back at the end of September with a Monsoon recap, as well as up to date information regarding El Niño and what this might mean for the Southwest in 2015-2016.

In this episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a closer look at the 2015 monsoon so far, with thoughts on how it has fared, and what it looks like for the rest of the monsoon, particularly with El Niño looming on the horizon. In addition to a general summary and recap, they look at spatial and temporal variability of the monsoon, some of the features that drive 'breaks' in the monsoon, and what impact El Niño might be having now, and this winter, especially if it remains a strong event. They also talk about expectations and what makes a "normal" monsoon, as well as how our expectations might be shaping how we perceive any given monsoon event or season. They cut short the El Niño discussion, as we've planned a special El Niño-centric podcast for Aug 21, to take a deeper look at El Niño so far, what we might expect, and how this (strong) event could compare to other similar events...so stay tuned regarding El Niño.