CommBank View: Economics & Markets

Australia’s housing market is losing momentum, so how far could prices fall and what will eventually turn the market around? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist Trent Saunders about why housing weakness has spread beyond Sydney and Melbourne, why rental conditions remain so tight and the role interest rate cuts could play in an eventual recovery.They also unpack why CommBank’s estimate of Australia’s neutral cash rate has risen to 3.85%, what that could mean for interest rates over the longer term and the inflation signals to watch as the RBA weighs its next moves. Plus, CommBank Energy & Sustainable Economist John Oh shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead. Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. No Reliance This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes. This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. Liability Disclaimer The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast. Usage of Artificial Intelligence To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What’s next for Australian property and what will it take to build the homes and infrastructure the country needs? In this special episode, CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman sits down with Mirvac Group CEO & Managing Director Campbell Hanan to discuss the forces shaping Australia’s property sector, from the housing-market slowdown and supply constraints to the outlook for commercial property and construction costs. They explore what’s holding back new housing, the opportunities and challenges created by the data-centre boom, and how modular construction and other innovations could help Australia build faster and more affordably. Plus, CommBank Senior Associate, Market Strategy and Rates Research Michael Tang shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead. Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. No Reliance This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes. This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. Liability Disclaimer The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast. Usage of Artificial Intelligence To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australia’s economy may be slowing overall, but the picture looks very different depending on where you live. So which states are performing the strongest, and what’s driving the divide? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Economist Harry Ottley about why Queensland has taken the top spot in CommBank’s latest state rankings, the investment boom supporting South Australia and the pressure households are facing across the country. They unpack how data centre investment is reshaping New South Wales and Victoria, the growing influence of housing and population growth, and what could reshuffle the state rankings over the year ahead. Plus, CommBank Economist & Currency Strategist Carol Kong shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead. Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. No Reliance This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes. This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. Liability Disclaimer The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast. Usage of Artificial Intelligence To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australia is one of the world’s biggest LNG exporters, so why could the east coast face gas shortages later this decade? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Commodities and Sustainable Economics Vivek Dhar about why east coast gas prices have nearly tripled over the past decade, the infrastructure constraints threatening future supply and what a proposed domestic gas reservation scheme could mean for prices. They unpack why Sydney and Melbourne face a very different outlook to Brisbane, the potential solutions to keep gas prices lower and why gas remains an important part of Australia’s transition to renewable energy. Plus, CommBank Economist Lucinda Jerogin shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead. Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. No Reliance This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes. This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. Liability Disclaimer The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast. Usage of Artificial Intelligence To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bond yields are hitting multi-year highs around the world, so what is the bond market telling us about where interest rates are headed? Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Market and Rates Strategy Adam Donaldson about what’s driving the global bond sell-off, why higher yields aren’t simply an inflation story and the structural forces pushing interest rates higher. They unpack growing concerns around US policy credibility and the Fed, why Australian bonds could fare better, and what a higher-rate world could ultimately mean for investors and borrowers. Plus, CommBank Economist and Currency Strategist Samara Hammoud shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead. Important Information This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”). Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au. No Reliance This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes. This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast. The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made. Liability Disclaimer The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast. Usage of Artificial Intelligence To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.