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© Jennifer Pickerel
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Welcome to Commodity Compass Weekly with Jennifer Pickerel, your essential source for navigating the fast-moving world of commodities. Every week, we break down the biggest market movers, trends, and macro factors driving price action across energy, metals, agriculture, and beyond. Whether you're trading oil, watching gold, or managing risk in softs and grains, this podcast delivers sharp insights and a forward-looking view to help you stay ahead.
Join us every week for a concise and informative update that keeps you connected to the pulse of the global commodity markets.
Join us every week for a concise and informative update that keeps you connected to the pulse of the global commodity markets.
26 Episodes
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This week, the dominant headline driving the metals and broader markets was again the escalating U.S.–China battle over rare earth export controls. Beijing unveiled its most aggressive export restrictions yet — expanding the list of controlled elements from seven to twelve, adding rules on processing equipment and forcing exporters to apply for licenses. In Washington, U.S. officials blasted the move as a “global supply-chain power grab,” with Trade Representative Greer calling on China to roll back the curbs. China, in turn, accused the U.S. of stoking panic and distortion, rejecting Washington’s calls to unwind the restrictions. The metals complex had a strong week, until a Friday correction. Energy remained mixed, and grains found a slight rebound.
The dominant narrative pushing commodities this week was the escalating U.S.–China quarrel focused on rare earth export controls. China, citing national security, expanded restrictions on rare earth metals, magnets, and the technology associated with processing and refining, tightening its grip on key materials essential for aerospace, and defense. In response, President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, escalating the trade war and rattling markets already grappling with supply chain risks.
Markets shrugged off the US government shut down this week. Job and private sector employment data showed a decaying labor market, but investors saw it as more fuel for cheaper capital. As the major boards found new all-time highs this week, precious metals extended their rally as well—gold briefly surged to a new record as concerns about a U.S. government shutdown and sticky inflation elevated safe-haven flows. In base metals, copper caught a bid midweek as lingering supply disruptions—especially from the mudslide and forced outages at Grasberg—reignited deficit fears. All told, the week’s story hinged on diverging trends: energy under pressure from surplus expectations, metals riding supply constraints and safe-haven demand, and commodity subsectors reacting idiosyncratically to evolving fundamentals.
We started the week riding some momentum in oil, but by midweek WTI and Brent gave back gains after a deal to reopen the Kurdish-Iraq pipeline. The demand for precious metals continued throughout the week with gold making new all-time highs, silver closing in on its all-time highs. Both were exceptional, yet were outdone this week by platinum and palladium on percentage moves. On the ag side, grains mostly softened as U.S. harvest pressure mounted.
The Federal Reserve offered its first rate cut since December last week and spurred heavy buying into the precious metals complex later in the week. WTI and Copper and still in their own trading ranges. Harvest in the US kicks off while prices get a bounce.
President Trump also ratcheted up pressure on the Fed Chair to enact a “big rate cut now,” citing weakening producer prices and arguing that inflationary risks are receding. These dovish cues helped push the U.S. dollar lower this week, improving the outlook for commodities whose prices are dollar-sensitive.
Markets began September on edge, with investors highly attuned to U.S. inflation data and momentum toward a possible rate cut. Risk appetite was buoyed by an unexpectedly soft dollar into Friday, as rising expectations that the Federal Reserve could ease policy kept equities buoyant and sought to support commodity prices—particularly gold, which notched its strongest weekly gain in three months.
As the Executive Branch of the US Government continues to put pressure on the FOMC, markets are betting on easier money and lower rates. This pushed gold and silver into higher territory this week. Corn finally some a bounce this week while cattle continued to rise. The oil shale patch is worried about over-supply.
The markets awaited patiently all week for Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole comments on Friday. The dovish tone sent physical markets higher and the US Dollar lower. Cattle hit another new all-time high and we have reason to believe the move is not over.
Strong U.S. jobs data, sticky inflation, firming yields, and mixed global growth signals contributed to a choppy week for commodity markets, while a strengthening dollar and buoyant equities encouraged investors to rotate between safe‑haven metals and riskier assets. Grain prices remain under pressure and we saw this in the market reaction to one of the top Ag equities this week.
Gold futures get a boost, and then the fade, from tariff announcements out of the White House. Grains continue to get hit while the cattle market continues its magnificent bull run. However, Friday's move in cattle push caution into the weekend.
Gold gets a Friday boost. Comex Copper Corrects on tariffs clarifications. And agriculture saw mostly red throughout last week.
A stronger U.S. dollar and a raft of economic data set the tone for commodities last week. Solid U.S. jobless‑claim figures bolstered confidence in the labour market and reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would leave rates unchanged, curbing demand for safe‑haven metals. However, durable goods orders slid and Chinese fiscal revenue contracted, raising concerns about a slowdown in industrial activity and dragging on oil markets.
The commodity markets last week were decidedly quieter than previous weeks, with the exception of some key news out of soybean demand and biofuel production in the United States. We also have some analysis on the news out of the DoD on their position with MP Materials and the Mountain Pass rare earth operation.
We take a look at the shortened week last week before President Trump signed into law his One Big Beautiful Bill. The metals continued to rise, oil shook off geopolitical risk premium and the grains may have found a floor.
We have a look at last week's move within the commodity sector, with gold and oil correcting after de-escalation in Iran. The grains continue to show weakness while PGMs continue their winning streaks.
Before the weekend, commodity markets experienced notable fluctuations. But on Saturday evening, the United States, in coordination with Israel, launched airstrikes on three key Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. Markets remain fluid, as speculators await any type of response from the Iranian government.
This week on The Commodity Compass, we break down a volatile rally across precious metals, energy, and agriculture. Gold and silver surged as geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand drove prices to multi-year highs. WTI crude jumped over 13% following escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, while a sixth straight decline in U.S. rig counts added fuel to the fire. Meanwhile, wheat and soybeans climbed on adverse weather and export demand, rounding out a week of broad-based commodity strength.
Silver, platinum and palladium had big weeks this past week. Oil saw a big bounce as US rig counts continue to drop. And we talk about the stagnation in the uranium spot market.
Lean Hogs lead the way in the commodities complex with most in the red last week. We talk about gold's anticipation of more easing by the Federal Reserve and a bit of concern over copper supply with a key asset coming offline.
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