Common Sense Fantasy Baseball

@rundmcd is back to talk about evaluating risk!  (AKA "Dave tells me the 3 pitchers I'm allowed to draft this year!") 11:20 Carlos Rodon 22:05 Jacob deGrom 31:15 Shane Bieber 38:50 Chris Sale 44:15 Luis Severino 54:05 Clevinger vs Verlander 1:14:43 Clayton Kershaw, and Dinelson Lamet "When I see PRP, I'm out." - Dave 1:27:30 Zac Gallen Find us on Twitter!  He's @rundmcd, and I'm @commonsensefbb.

Greg (@gjewett9) helps me size up EVERY team once again, as I do last minute cramming for my Main Event draft tomorrow. 2:05 Baltimore Orioles 3:20 Boston Red Sox 5:25 Chicago White Sox 5:50 Cleveland 9:45 Detroit Tigers 10:45 Houston Astros 12:20 KC Royals 13:50 LA Angels 15:10 Minnesota Twins 16:30 NY Yankees 17:10 Oakland A's 18:15 Seattle Mariners 19:55 Tampa Rays 25:35 Texas Rangers 26:55 Toronto Blue Jays 27:40 Arizona Diamondbacks 29:20 Atlanta Braves 30:25 Chicago Cubs 31:40 Cincinnati Reds 33:40 Colorado Rockies 35:20 LA Dodgers 36:25 Miami Marlins 37:20 Milwaukee Brewers 38:35 NY Mets 39:15 Philadelphia Phillies 41:10 Pittsburgh Pirates 44:10 San Diego Padres 46:25 SF Giants 48:30 St Louis Cardinals 50:10 Washington Nationals 51:55 Speculative pick ups, stashes, and late round darts Find us on Twitter!  He's @gjewett9, and I'm @commonsensefbb.

Rob and I talk about his podcast and his leagues, and how we're building our teams in DC leagues and FAAB leagues. 06:20 Differences in drafting strategies for Draft and Hold (Draft Champions) leagues vs FAAB leagues 11:00 Catchers 16:45 Closers 22:45 Stolen Bases 31:25 Luis Robert 37:55 Keston Hiura and Javy Baez (and other swing and miss guys) 44:25 Tim Anderson 51:10 Prospects 58:00 Pitchers (Means, Urquidy, Yarbrough, Minor) 1:12:00 Late DC picks He's @deadpullhitter, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Dave (@RunDMcD) shares what he's learned through years of experience, about how to assess players' risks in fantasy baseball. 1:45 Verlander, going into 2020 6:00 How to think about taking a guy off your board completely 9:35 Sale, Syndergaard, and Severino (don't draft guys who won't be playing) 11:45 Taillon (it can take a while to get back your skills) 18:10 deGrom (we can disagree on how much risk there is, but don't ignore it as a part of the assessment) 27:40 Scherzer (we all see the risks, but we don't seem to know how to price them in) 31:40 Strasburg (fear of the unknown plus the price...plus the fact that he's had injury issues all through the years) 34:10 Lamet (he's injured now...plus, PRP means TJ a lot of the time) 37:20 Carrasco (the risk/reward is a value at the price) 40:30 Musgrove (going late enough to take a risk) 43:35 Canning (after pick 300, go for upside) 46:25 Stanton vs Buxton (price matters, many paths to value, UT downgrade, career IL days, paying for a career year, volume of injuries vs the type of injury -- both matter) He's @RunDMcD, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

@MattWi77iams and I discuss some players we think are going too early: 3:40 Jose Abreu around pick 30 and Luke Voit around pick 60 - Matt 8:25 Pablo Lopez around pick 100 - Drew 15:45 Walker Buehler around pick 20 - Matt 20:30 Kyle Lewis around pick 75 (but even at pick 100-120) - Drew 26:05 Randy Arozarena around pick 60 - Matt -- 32:20 an aside on Mondesi -- Then we discuss some players we think are going too late: 38:00 Austin Meadows and Yoan Moncada (around pick 85) - Matt 41:45 Matt Chapman around pick 120 - Drew 45:50 Rafael Devers around pick 50 - Matt 48:00 Zack Greinke around pick 100 - Drew 54:00 Bryan Reynolds around pick 325 - Drew He's @MattWi77iams, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Greg (@gjewett9) and I look at every MLB team and discuss the closer situation, as best we can tell in November. AMERICAN LEAGUE 1:30 Baltimore Orioles 3:40 Boston Red Sox 6:20 Chicago White Sox 8:25 Cleveland Indians 11:10 Detroit Tigers 13:50 Houston Astros 15:50 Kansas City Royals 18:10 Los Angeles Angels 20:10 Minnesota Twins 21:30 New York Yankees 23:50 Oakland Athletics 26:20 Seattle Mariners 27:35 Tampa Bay Rays 29:10 Texas Rangers 31:45 Toronto Blue Jays NATIONAL LEAGUE 33:55 Arizona Diamondbacks 36:15 Atlanta Braves 38:30 Chicago Cubs 41:05 Cincinnati Reds 43:40 Colorado Rockies 45:35 Los Angeles Dodgers 47:45 Miami Marlins 50:25 Milwaukee Brewers 54:10 New York Mets 57:05 Philadelphia Phillies 59:15 Pittsburgh Pirates 1:02:05 San Diego Padres 1:04:45 San Francisco Giants 1:06:15 St Louis Cardinals 1:07:15 Washington Nationals 1:08:10 BONUS - Greg's Hader-type breakout formula He's @gjewett9, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Zack and I take a look at early ADP from Justin Mason's "2 Early Mock Drafts" and Zack's draft and hold leagues that are drafting for real already. 4:10 We gently poke fun at mock drafts and point out some shortcomings Then we discuss players we think are going too early (AVOIDS): 7:10 Mike Clevinger at ADP 61 (Zack) 19:40 Pete Alonso at ADP 53 (Drew) 25:55 Sixto Sanchez at ADP 80 (Zack) 34:00 Gleyber Torres at ADP 63 (Drew...Zack disagrees) 40:05 Gary Sanchez at ADP 169 (Zack) 45:35 Joey Gallo at ADP 127 (Drew) Next we move on to players we think are going too late (TARGETS): 50:35 Gio Urshela at ADP 158 (Drew) ...take him instead of Vlad! 56:40 Zach Plesac at ADP 80 (Zack) 1:04:25 Tommy Edman at ADP 179 (Drew) 1:10:30 Dansby Swanson at ADP 106 (Zack) 1:18:07 Triston McKensie at ADP 208 (Drew) 1:27:30 Michael Pineda at ADP 275 (Zack) Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Toby returns to talk about some up and coming players! 1:10 the keys to Toby's success in 2020 4:45 Off season prep begins!  We start by discussing some lessons learned. Then we discuss some breakout players: 16:10 Corey Seager 27:40 Luke Voit 34:45 Teoscar Hernandez 42:05 Kyle Lewis 49:20 Dominic Smith 56:00 An aside about Stolen Bases 1:00:50 Austin Nola 1:05:40 Some other guys (Slater, Santander, Cronenworth, Arozarena, Walsh, Happ, Moore) 1:21:40 Who could be the Corbin Burnes or Dylan Bundy of 2021? Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Some thoughts on strike out rate, BABIP, and what they mean for batting average. Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Opening day didn't happen...yet.  But @gjewett9 and I discuss baseball anyway! 2:00 Greg's current project 6:05 Bo Bichette - SS 20:35 Isiah Kiner-Falefa - C 25:35 Josh Bell - 1B (and a great call out by Greg, CJ Cron) 30:30 Jeff McNeil - 2B (with Cesar Hernandez call out by Greg) 35:35 Yandy Diaz - 3B 39:00 OFs (Judge, Eloy, Stanton, Soler, Franimal, Schwarber) 45:00 Luzardo and Urias - SPs (Greg's call out: Rich Hill) 48:35 RPs 56:15 Rougned Odor 59:05 Ian Happ (or Dansby Swanson one pick later!)

Welcome back @zackroto! We start off talking some strategy: 1:40 Top SPs - Aces, Pocket Aces and how we draft them 5:10 The case for an Ace 10:50 Draft Champions vs FAAB leagues -- the point in the draft where strategy changes Then we discuss rounds 19 and 20: 18:05 Avoid AJ Pollock at 272 19:45 Avoid Joey Votto at 271 20:55 Buster Posey or Danny Jansen? 23:35 Gregory Polanco and his risks vs Solak, Wil Myers, or others and their risks 26:35 What if Solak wasn't UT only? 27:45 Players that drop and players to reach on 29:50 Domingo Santana's path to playing time 31:50 SPs I'm not really looking at here (largely because of innings concerns and other PT risks) 34:25 Not so into Myers or Kieboom for 2020 35:20 Josh James or Mackenzie Gore rather than lower-upside options 38:30 Catchers without much upside, and closers that might not be closers 39:20 Target Dylan Carlson at 295!  (instead of Kyle Tucker way earlier...or maybe at all) 43:40 More pitchers I'm just not drafting 44:45 Target Domingo Santana at 292 46:20 Avoid Austin Riley for 2020 (at pick 294) 48:00 Corey Dickerson - kinda boring and inconsistent 48:50 Kyle Seager and Willy Adames 51:30 My weird take on Travis Shaw And we even give some bonus picks (after 300): 57:20 Zack advises me against Kevin Pillar at pick 307 59:40 Target Evan White at 349 1:00:15 Target Matt Magill at 333 1:01:00 Matt Carpenter -- what do you think, Zack? 1:02:05 Target Robinson Cano at 336 1:04:45 What's a good floor player after pick 300? Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome John (@MLBMovingAVG) as we discuss our draft process and talk some ADP. 1:15 It's all about PRICE.  As John says, "You can't force your will on the market." 2:25 Drafting in reverse 7:15 Take the value (when you have players whose skills are close, going far apart) 10:50 Jim Cramer show up briefly 13:30 AJ Puk aka Axl Rose Then we get into round 17 and 18... 15:35 Adrian Houser (ADP 248) and his pitch-mix changes (sinkers for GBs, curveballs for Ks) 34:10 Shin-Soo Choo (ADP 241) vs Austin Hays (ADP 251) ...unabashed age-ism 42:20 Mark Canha (ADP 257) and his crazy OBP-league value 47:25 Starling Castro (ADP 261) and his late-2019 push 49:30 Aaron Civale (ADP 269) is impossible to barrel, and team context is fantastic 51:45 Chris Archer (ADP 268) is K machine, but not the best for ratios, and team context is pretty meh 57:40 Yandy Diaz (ADP 258) and Renato Nunez (ADP 256) and Joey Votto (ADP 270) -- maybe find a 1B before this 1:06:10 Emilio Pagan (ADP 259), Brandon Kintzler (266), Scott Oberg (260), Wade Davis (265) -- not a good spot for RPs 1:17:20 Sam Hilliard (ADP 267) and the crowded Rockies OF (a team built for platoons) 1:21:55 Trent Grisham (ADP 286) vs all these other OF guys 1:37:30 Cesar Hernandez (ADP 264) at a position that's harder to fill 1:41:35 Positions available here and what to do with them Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome Colin back to the podcast!  He's on Twitter at @CWeatherwax13. We discuss some pitcher risers https://twitter.com/RyanBHQ/status/1229121960308690945 2:05 Elite SPs moving up 3:20 Jose Berrios up from ADP 95 (Nov) to 79 (Feb) 5:10 Edwin Diaz up from 140 to 116 8:30 Doolittle and Nick Anderson moving up Then we turn to some hitter risers https://twitter.com/RyanBHQ/status/1229218664160931840 13:50 Luis Robert up from 106 (Nov) to 77 (Feb) 15:45 Bo Bichette up from 79 to 64 25:10 Brian Anderson up from 261 to 233 And then some hitter fallers https://twitter.com/RyanBHQ/status/1229539025003962372/photo/1 29:05 Anthony Rizzo down from 60 (Nov) to 74 (Feb) 31:20 Yasiel Puig down from 107 to 127 35:10 Willie Calhoun down from 150 to 174 40:30 Jeff McNeil down from 85 to 99 42:25 We talk team construction (especially pitcher strategy in 15-teamers) And lastly, we cover round 16 ADP -- a great round! 1:00:15 Target Mitch Keller at 227, Caleb Smith at 228, Griffin Canning at 229, and Masahiro Tanaka at 231 1:03:45 Target Sean Murphy at 233 and Dansby Swanson at 234 1:06:50 Colin likes Luis Arraez at 235 if you need AVG 1:07:50 Target Gio Urshela at 239 1:09:20 Target Yadier Molina at 237 ...we also like CJ Cron and Brian Anderson ...and are kind of avoiding Francisco Mejia and Dustin May, because look at the other options here! Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome Max!  He's @FreezeStats on Twitter.  We talk about: 0:40 Max's blog and research 4:40 Players who earned more HR than they achieved 9:15 We consider what Dodger Stadium could do for Mookie Betts 14:50 "Not all barrels are created equal" (Launch angle and pulling the ball matter a ton) 20:25 Ozuna - example of a pull hitter who "earned" more than he achieved 22:35 Adding in Alex Chamberlain's "Deserved Barrels" 25:00 We move on to a player debate on Oscar Mercado Then we discuss rd 15... 38:05 Probably avoid Jo Adell at 210 40:20 Target Justin Upton at 220 41:10 Target Avisail Garcia at 224 (and hope he plays every day!) 42:20 Throw back to "Not all barrels are created equal" -- Max's next research project 43:25 Target Rougned Odor at 217 45:25 Target Jose Urquidy 47:45 Avoid Kolten Wong at 216 48:55 Discussion on Narvaez and other catchers in this range 51:00 One last exhortation to avoid risky closers...although Nick Anderson might be a value even without 20+ saves. Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome Mike! Twitter: @SPStreamer First we take a quick look back at earlier rounds and some guys Mike targets and avoids: 1:40 Target Sonny Gray at 98 8:20 Target Carlos Santana at 144 10:35 Avoid Chris Paddack at 51 13:45 Avoid Keston Hiura at 42 Then we get into rounds 13 and 14:  19:00 Target Kenta Maeda (currently 184) 25:00 Target Hunter Dozier (186) 27:35 Bryan Reynolds / PIT discussion 30:45 Carlos Martinez discussion 33:15 Avoid Lance McCullers (194) 34:40 Luke Weaver discussion 36:15 Avoid Sean Doolittle (185) and Giovanny Gallegos (196) and Nick Anderson any presumptive closer where there is role-risk or committee risk 40:55 Target Luke Voit (200) 44:00 Avoid Didi Gregorius (201) 47:50 Quick thoughts on Joe Mugrove and Brandon Lowe 48:45 Target Christian Walker (202) 51:30 Heaney and Folty discussion 53:50 Senzel and McCutchen discussion 56:35 Target Christian Vazquez (210) Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Big thanks to Matt (@MattWi77iams) for joining me to discuss a couple very full rounds of ADP! We discuss a few of Matt's #2020PlayerBreakdowns: 4:45 Lourdes Gurriel 11:30 Jeff McNeil 12:50 Projecting growth 15:50 Garrett Hampson 19:30 Max Kepler Then we look at players going in the 11th and 12th rounds (ADP 151 -  180). 30:15 Target: Corey Seager at ADP 156 33:55 Target: Scott Kingery at 159 39:00 Potential Target: Gavin Lux at 161 41:25 Avoid: Emilio Pagan at 151 42:25 Target: Kyle Hendricks at 154 45:55 Target: Jorge Polanco at 157 47:10 Avoid: Byron Buxton at 164 49:00 Random Trea Turner discussion 52:05 Potential Target: Julio Urias at 165 55:45 Target: Salvador Perez at 168 58:30 Target: Edwin Encarnacion at 170 1:00:30 Avoid: Aristides Aquino at at 173 1:02:40 Target: JD Davis at 180 1:09:40 Avoid: Sean Manaea at 172 1:12:00 Bonus Target: Khris Davis at 181 Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

I talk speed vs power. Let me know what you think on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome Brian (@RuddHQ on Twitter) and enjoy our discussions about the following players! 1:25 Tyler Glasnow at ADP ~68 (4:35 vs Paxton or Woodruff) 6:50 Hector Neris at ~140 (10:25 vs Iglesias, Kimbrel, Jansen, and Diaz) 13:50 Yasiel Puig at ~115 (19:15 vs Benintendi, Mercado, and Luis Robert) 25:25 Rhys Hoskins at ~116 (33:05 vs Carlos Santana or Edwin Encarnacion) 39:10 Adalberto Mondesi at ~35 (50:30 vs Villar or Robles) 57:35 What do you do later with SBs if you take Mondesi? 1:00:25 Danny Santana at ~125 (1:05:30 vs Kingery or Goodrum) Thanks for listening!  I'd love it if you write a review on iTunes, and please find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome Greg (https://twitter.com/gjewett9) and enjoy our conversation on all things Closers (and other RPs).  Here's a link to his closer charts: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YQLeAKTjBGGerTdKUMQHYhxfVHi73Y9eJcEGlFh7Lr0/edit#gid=2012002294 3:45 Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Kirby Yates, Roberto Osuna -- The closest you can get to actual safety you can find at the closer position. Already things start to get riskier... 8:40 Edwin Diaz 13:50 Taylor Rogers (with Sergio Romo shout out) 15:20 Liam Hendricks 16:05 Brad Hand 17:50 Ken Giles 19:40 Kenley Jansen (with Blake Treinen shout out) 22:20 Raisel Iglesias (with Robert Stephenson shout out) 25:05 Emilio Pagan -- MOVING DOWN!  (likely committee with Anderson, Castillo, Alvarado, and others)  https://www.tampabay.com/sports/rays/2020/01/28/its-the-ninth-inning-who-do-you-want-protecting-the-rays-lead/ 27:35 Brandon Workman (with Darwinzon Hernandez shout out) 30:05 Kind of skipped Hansel Robles and moved on to Archie Bradley (with Kevin Ginkel shout out) 32:30 Sean Doolittle (with Will Harris and Daniel Hudson discussion) 37:30 Oberg, Neris, Kimbrel, Kennedy, Colome, Jimenez, Leclerc  (shout outs to Joely Rodriguez, Rowan Wick, Jeremy Jeffress) 44:50 Will Smith and Mark Melancon -- HERE ARE TWO MORE GUYS GOING WAY TOO EARLY.  Get a guy with the job. 47:05 Matt Magill (ADP > 350!!!) (with Austin Adams shout out) -- VALUE 54:40 Pirates - Keone Kela (maybe Crick after he gets traded?) Spare yourself the headache 57:20 Orioles - Mychal Givens  (and maybe Hunter Harvey...but beware: probably not many save opportunities for any Oriole) 59:30 Marlins - Brandon Kintzler maybe...Strop could sign, Stanek still maybe...just stay away 1:00:30 Giants - Greg: "I don't know." 1:02:35 Cardinals - Greg: "I have no idea."  1:05:15 Alex Reyes??? Value dart-throws: 50:40 Drew Pomeranz 1:07:25 Rowan Wick, Robert Stephenson, etc 1:10:05 Kevin Gausman ...Sergio Romo, Seth Lugo, and others in Greg's great article: https://www.fantasyalarm.com/articles/gjewett/76866/mlb-advanced-analytics-reliever-efficiency-rate-season-review/ I'd love it if you would write a kind review on iTunes, and let me know what you think on Twitter.  I'm at https://twitter.com/commonsensefbb.