Control Risks

A little over a month ago, President William Ruto of Kenya made a triumphant state visit to the White House. During the visit, Kenya was designated a major NATO ally – the first in sub-Saharan Africa – and a few weeks later, Ruto attended the G7 Summit in Italy. But his government faces turmoil at home. Proposals for tax rises have sparked a wave of protests nationwide, leading to protesters invading parliament on 25 June and prompting Ruto to backtrack. Join Control Risks Africa experts Vincent Rouget, Patricia Rodrigues and David Owiro as they discuss this narrative of contrast, unpacking Ruto’s foreign policy, globally and regionally, alongside an evaluation of his fiscal initiatives and his domestic position. Find out how we can support your organisation.

The 2024 US election marks a pivotal decision point: what kind of role will the US play in the world? While this may not be the top issue for most American voters, the rest of the world is watching and waiting to see who will be sitting in the Oval Office next year: Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Join Claudine Fry for a conversation with Jonathan Wood, our lead global affairs analyst, as they discuss the impact of the US election on three key regions: Europe, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. They explore the critical themes businesses need to watch closely, from growing security concerns around NATO to US trade policy with China to the evolving relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia. Our analysts Alexey Eremenko, Niamh McBurney and Andrew Gilholm, bring their regional expertise to the discussion. For more on the US election, listen to our Asia in Focus podcast episodes on US-China relations and the election’s impact on Asia and broader markets. Visit controlrisks.com to learn more about how we make the difference in a changing world.  

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi secured a third term, but his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) unexpectedly lost its parliamentary majority after significant losses in key states to opposition parties, particularly the Indian National Congress (INC). For the first time, Modi must rely on his coalition partners to advance his political agenda. Angela Mancini, Partner, speaks with Khalid Shah, Analyst, to discuss what this shift mean for India’s growth trajectory, internal inequalities, and the nation’s evolving role on the global stage. Read our article on the outlook for a weakened Modi, or subscribe to our India updates to get them straight to your inbox.    

India is now a key market for foreign investors, but Indian conglomerates are increasingly looking at the world. What happens when disputes arise? Join Control Risks experts, Aakash Brahmachari and Michael Harrington for part two of our conversation on emerging disputes in India. They are joined by Niyati Gandhi, Dispute Resolution at Shardul Amarchand Mangaldas, and Co Srishti Jain, Managing Associate at Keidan Harrison LLP, for a conversation about disputes coming in and out of India as the geopolitical situation becomes more complex.   To find out more visit controlrisks.com

A year ago, Bola Tinubu assumed office as the fifth president of Nigeria following the country’s return to democracy in 1999. The new government immediately took a series of bold actions – hailed by the markets – to liberalise the economy and boost investment. Results have been slow to materialise: inflation is soaring, investors are hesitant and security incidents are on the rise.  Join Control Risks experts Vincent Rouget, Mikolaj Judson and Oludamilare Adesola as they assess President Tinubu’s first year in office, from his economic reforms to his approach to security issues around oil theft and militancy. Will his administration be able to turn ambitious rhetoric into concrete results?  Find out how we can support your organisation.

Vietnam’s anti-corruption drive, dubbed the “burning furnace,” started in 2016 but has intensified since 2021.   Many senior officials in the country have come under investigation. They’ve been asked to leave their positions or have been forced to step down. Most recently, Vietnamese property tycoon Truong My Lan was sentenced to death for her role in a USD 12.5 billion financial fraud scheme. Investors and government officials are growing increasingly nervous and are holding off on making any decisions that might spark a corruption investigation. But that’s not the whole story.   Angela Mancini, Partner, sits down with Steve Wilford, Partner, to discuss Vietnam’s current business and political environment and how, despite the challenges, there is still a lot of opportunity.  If you are looking for more analysis across South East Asia, please visit our South East Asia hub here. 

The past year has seen a surge in regulatory activity worldwide as authorities continue to combat increasingly sophisticated cyber threats while managing the swift adoption of emerging technologies. Nowhere is this more evident—and potentially transformative—than in the European Union (EU). In this episode of Decrypt, Associate Director Stina Connor from our Digital Risks team is joined by Associate Director Alexandra Kellert from our Europe geopolitical and country risk team. They discuss the EU's dynamic regulatory landscape and look at the business implications of new regulations like the AI Act, unpacking the challenges these laws pose and the opportunities they present for businesses navigating the EU's complex digital and cyber environment.

This April has seen a surge in bilateral contacts between the US and China, from the Xi-Biden phone call to Janet Yellen and Antony Blinken’s visits to Beijing. Relations between the two countries seem to be entering a holding pattern, as we mentioned in the RiskMap 2024 Top Risks. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are competing to raise the stakes against the world's second largest economy as the election approaches. Are we seeing the advent of a durable stabilisation in bilateral relations for the rest of the year, or just a lull before the storm? Meanwhile, China is stepping up its diplomatic reach with other countries. How will China's growing role and influence on the international stage contribute to reshaping the world order? Angela Mancini, Partner, talks with Andrew Gilholm, our Principal and Director of analysis for Greater China and North Asia, about the prospects of US-China relations during this election year, how the two candidates differ in their approach to policy around China, the key triggers for escalation to watch, and how companies should prepare for the changing global landscape. Listen to our recent episode, US election 2024: the possible outcomes and global implications, to hear more of our insights on the US election. If you are looking for more analysis across the Asia-Pacific region, please subscribe to our Asia In Focus podcast.

The demand for the minerals we extract from the sea will continue to grow. What do businesses need to know about the pioneering space of seabed mining? Join Claudine Fry for a conversation with in-house experts Gabriel Brasil, Senior Analyst and our global lead on energy transition and critical minerals, and Dr Victoria Mitchell, Analyst and lead on maritime issues, about what governments, businesses and activists are saying and doing as activity around seabed mining steps up. Find more of our analysis on critical minerals here.

After 30 years of dominating South African politics, the African National Congress (ANC) runs the serious risk of falling below 50% of the vote in the general elections – just short of an absolute majority in parliament. Join Control Risks experts Vincent Rouget, Wayne Malgas and Michael Bongani Reinders for a discussion about the possible scenarios following the vote on 29 May, which sectors will be most impacted and what businesses should expect in terms of security risk. Read more of our analysis on the 2024 South African general elections.

The “zero trust” security model has been a buzzword in IT circles for a while now. It was hailed as a revolutionary approach to protecting digital assets by assuming nothing inside or outside the network is trustworthy. It’s also proven very difficult to put into practice. In this episode, Nic Reys brings on Jim Fitzsimmons to dissect the principles, the effectiveness and the challenges of zero trust, from critical dependencies to navigating the complexities of modern cyber threats. What does zero trust really entail and is it the cybersecurity panacea it's touted to be? In other words, is it still a thing? Find out more about how we're supporting organisations face digital risk.

In a busy election year, the most high-profile race in 2024 is undoubtedly the rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump as the two candidates once again vie for the Oval Office. With six months until election day, how the rematch could unfold, and its global implications, are top-of-mind for many businesses. Organisations need to prepare for a range of compounding risks associated with the possible outcomes. Angela Mancini, Partner, sits down with Daniel Rechtschaffen, our Washington DC-based political and regulatory risk Senior Analyst for North America, to discuss the forecast for 2024 US election, the policy priorities of the two candidates and the impact for Asia and broader markets. Read the article, The business implications of a Biden-Trump rematch, for more of our thoughts on the US election. If you are looking for more analysis across the Asia-Pacific region, please subscribe to our Asia In Focus podcast.

India is increasingly becoming a pivotal market in the corporate world, with disputes involving the country gaining greater international significance. Join Control Risks experts Aakash Brahmachari and Michael Harrington for a discussion with Prateek Bagaria, Partner at Singularity Legal. They’ll explore the complexities of disputes involving India amidst an evolving geopolitical landscape and look at what this means for legal teams. Visit controlrisks.com to learn more about how we make the difference in a changing world.

The Ukraine war is receiving less attention now, but the implications continue to reverberate. The Ukraine war will define a generation's understanding of European identity, the future of Russia's relationship with NATO, US engagement in Europe, and the cohesion of the Western alliance. It will also shape Russia's influence in the Global South and that of its allies, impacting businesses worldwide. Join Claudine Fry for a conversation with two of Control Risks’ senior experts in geopolitics: Sorana Parvulescu, Partner and head of our geopolitical risk business in EMEA based in Dubai, and Jonathan Wood, a Principal Washington, DC. Visit controlrisks.com to learn more about how we make the difference in a changing world.

Over two years have passed since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This has been a period marked by relentless battlefield activity, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and a complex and evolving digital threat landscape. As business looks to rebuild a country still defending itself from invasion, how can CISOs and security teams ensure their organisations remain secure? In this episode, Nic Reys chats with Control Risks experts Stina Connor and Bota Iliyas about the current state of digital threats in Ukraine, the changing motivations of threat actors, and what to consider when operating in or entering a market sat at the nexus of geopolitical tensions.  Find out more about what we're paying attention to in the digital risk space.

On 6 March 2024, Houthi rebels in the Red Sea attacked a ship called True Confidence, killing three crew members. Up until this attack, the Houthis had managed to damage vessels, but this was the first time one of their attacks resulted in death. With the situation likely to continue and even escalate, the maritime community remains vulnerable. Join Control Risks experts, Aakash Brahmachari, Cormac McGarry, and Dina Arakji for a conversation with Akshay Misra, Managing Associate at Penningtons, about disputes arising from the Red Sea crisis and what companies can do to better prepare themselves as events unfold in the region. Read more of our thinking on disputes arising from the Red Sea crisis.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the market size of key energy transition minerals has doubled over the past five years. The IEA predicts another doubling of demand for those same minerals by 2030. What are the environmental, social, and governance impacts of a ramped up critical minerals sector? Join Maria Knapp, Yadaira Orsini, and Rob Bailes as they dissect how companies can best approach a sector that is evolving at a rapid pace, but which comes with significant risks, including pollution, poor working conditions, and increased regulation. Explore our take the critical minerals sector here.  

Indonesia will announce the official results of its presidential elections on March 20. Pro-business ex-defence minister Prabowo Subianto looks set to win the presidency outright, avoiding a run-off in June.  Longtime followers of Indonesia will know Prabowo as an unpredictably belligerent general and the son-in-law of authoritarian President Suharto, who in the late 1990s was banned from the US and fired from the Indonesian army for allegations of human rights abuse. How did Prabowo get elected and what should businesses expect from him?  Angela Mancini, Partner, speaks with Achmad Sukarsono, Associate Director and Indonesia Lead Analyst based in our Singapore office, about what a Prabowo presidency would look like and how the business risk landscape in Indonesia is expected to change.   Find more of our analysis on South East Asia here.

India is often regarded as sitting in a geopolitical sweet spot. The country is seen as a rising power on the global stage as well as an ally to several Western states. All eyes will be on the country in April and May 2024 as India heads to the polls in its upcoming general election, which will see 900 million people cast their votes. While no surprises are expected, the outcome will set the tone and direction for businesses operating in India for the next 5 years. But the general election will likely not derail India’s growth agenda. India’s Vision 2047 document, expected to be formally unveiled this year, will lay out a path to elevate India’s economy from a gross domestic product of USD 3.4 trillion to USD 30 trillion by 2047. Alongside incentives to drive investment and the opportunities that come with a large, aspirational consumer market, businesses should also expect inefficiencies and obstacles to doing business; myriad climate challenges; a massive digital infrastructure vulnerable to threat actors; and all the complexity of centre / state, regional, and social challenges. In this episode of Asia In Focus, Angela Mancini, Partner, speaks with Khalid Shah, Analyst, about how businesses operating in India can prepare for the future. Visit our India Business page to find our latest analysis on India, or read our analysis on the top risks and opportunities for India in 2024. If you are looking for more analysis across the Asia-Pacific region, please subscribe to our Asia In Focus podcast.

The yearlong buzz and panic following the launch of Chat-GPT has given way to the nuts and bolts of implementation. For companies large and small, from developers to end users, the question is: what’s at stake? Join Nicolas Reys, Steve Sacks, and Caitlin Egen, experts based in New York, DC, and London, respectively, for a conversation about the work they’re doing with clients who are weighing the risks and opportunities of implementing AI – from assessing vendors to tracking regulation.