Crypto Voices

In this episode, Matthew and Alec sit down with Jane Khodarkovsky. She is the Founder and President of Chazak Consulting LLC, where she provides subject matter expertise at the intersection of financial crimes, human trafficking and national security. Ms. Khodarkovsky also advises on financial integrity, including anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance and other litigation and regulatory matters in the emergent technology space, including blockchain, digital identity and AI. She previously served as the Trial Attorney and Human Trafficking Finance Specialist at the U.S. Department of Justice’s Money Laundering, Narcotics and Forfeiture Section.

Matthew and Alec sit down with Ryan McBeth for an in-depth discussion on the evolving war in Ukraine, the future of drone warfare, artificial intelligence on the battlefield, and the changing balance of global military power. Ryan explains why Ukraine's recent drone campaign against Russian infrastructure represents one of the most innovative military operations in modern history, arguing that the strategy is steadily degrading Russia's ability to sustain the war through what he describes as a "death by a thousand cuts."Follow Ryan McBeth for more analysis on intelligence, national security, military affairs, cybersecurity, and disinformation:YouTube: @RyanMcBethProgrammingX: https://x.com/RyanMcbethLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-mcbeth-5927a21/Substack: https://ryanmcbeth.substack.com/Website: https://www.ryanmcbeth.com/Crypto Voices: Episode 201Chapters:00:00:00 - Introduction 00:01:10 - Ukraine's Drone Offensive Bleeding Russia Dry00:03:40 - Ukraine's Unique Drone-Based Counteroffensive Strategy00:07:54 - Russia's Capacity to Learn and Adapt00:12:02 - Why a No-Fly Zone Could Have Prevented Ukraine War00:16:03 - Ukraine's Military Capabilities and AI in Warfare00:19:54 - AI Autonomous Weapons Systems Explained00:26:06 - Human Brain vs AI Processing Speed00:29:35 - Russia's Nuclear Arsenal Maintenance Problem00:35:07 - Why Putin Won't Use Nuclear Weapons00:37:03 - Nuclear Weapons' Limited Tactical Usefulness00:39:31 - China's Long-Term Strategy for Russia00:43:38 - Tomahawk Missiles and Alternative Weapons Systems00:46:49 - Large-Scale Combat Experience Gap00:49:50 - Ukraine's Audacious Military Operations AheadHost(s): Matthew Mezinskis & Alec HarrisAlec Harris's havenX: https://www.thehavenx.com/ Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comPodcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!

Matthew sits down with James Pierog, founder of Glimpse, to discuss the launch of a new Bitcoin-native prediction market focused on forecasting Bitcoin prices and financial markets. James explains how prediction markets evolved from academic scoring-rule research into modern platforms and why he believes current prediction markets often prioritize entertainment over economically meaningful forecasting. The conversation explores the mechanics behind Glimpse’s design, including its use of Bitcoin-denominated contracts, liquidity-sensitive market makers, and probability distributions rather than simple yes/no outcomes.James argues that prediction markets can become a powerful tool for discovering future prices of Bitcoin, gold, commodities, and financial assets, while helping users think in Bitcoin terms rather than fiat currencies. The discussion examines the challenges of decentralization, market resolution, liquidity, and regulation, comparing Glimpse’s approach to platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Matthew and James also explore how prediction markets could interact with Bitcoin’s power law thesis, potentially providing real-time insight into how traders collectively view Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.The episode dives into market incentives, information aggregation, and whether prediction markets can serve as a form of financial forecasting infrastructure rather than simply speculation. James outlines Glimpse’s roadmap, including future markets for gold, commodities, and Bitcoin-denominated asset pricing, as well as API access for algorithmic traders and quantitative researchers. The conversation concludes with a broader discussion about the role prediction markets may play in a future economy increasingly measured and settled in Bitcoin.Follow James Pierog on X: @BillyHongBeatsFollow James Pierog on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-pierog/Follow Glimpse on X: @GlimpseMarketsGlimpse Website: https://www.glimpse.trading/Crypto Voices: Episode 200Chapters:00:00 - Introduction to James Pierog and Glimpse01:05 - James’ background in math, computer science, and Bitcoin02:35 - Why Glimpse focuses on Bitcoin prediction markets04:46 - Early Bitcoin prediction market ideas and Paul Sztorc06:50 - Scoring rules, LMSR, and prediction market design10:01 - Decentralization challenges for prediction markets13:03 - How Glimpse resolves markets using financial data16:16 - Bitcoin price markets and future roadmap19:06 - How non-Bitcoin assets like gold and commodities could resolve20:37 - The benefits of forecasting prices with prediction markets23:36 - Why pricing assets in Bitcoin matters26:01 - How Glimpse’s Bitcoin price forecast works28:07 - Retail vs. institutional users29:26 - Prediction markets, politics, and regulation32:06 - Sports betting, entertainment markets, and “bread not circuses”35:22 - How Glimpse contracts resolve37:37 - Expanding from hourly to daily, weekly, and long-term markets38:44 - Bitcoin power law models and market forecasts42:31 - Timeline for APIs and additional markets45:44 - How payouts work on Glimpse46:43 - Incentivizing disagreement and prediction market odds49:16 - Why Glimpse subsidizes each hourly market51:27 - Closing thoughts and where to find Glimpse53:04 - Final remarksHost(s): Matthew MezinskisMusic: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comPodcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!

In this episode, Matthew sits down with Plan C for a deep dive into the evolution of Bitcoin power law modeling and why many commonly used assumptions may be flawed. The conversation centers on a critical distinction between calendar time vs protocol time, showing how Bitcoin’s early block production delays still distort traditional models today. The discussion expands into quantile regression vs OLS, where Plan C explains why Bitcoin’s skewed data makes median-based modeling more reliable than averages. He also introduces a newer concept around data weighting, suggesting that current models may overemphasize recent price action due to density bias, leading to unstable projections.One of the most impactful takeaways is how small modeling changes can lead to massive differences over time. Plan C demonstrates that long-term fair value projections could differ by as much as 50% depending on the methodology used, challenging widely accepted Bitcoin price expectations. Overall, this conversation reframes how serious analysts should approach Bitcoin’s long-term valuation.Follow Plan C on X: @TheRealPlanCCrypto Voices: Episode 198Chapters:00:00:00 - Refining Bitcoin Power Law Models00:03:42 - Calendar Time vs Protocol Time in Bitcoin00:06:18 - Calendar Time vs Protocol Time Regression00:10:45 - Comparing Bitcoin Start Dates and Projections00:12:56 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis00:25:44 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis00:35:15 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis00:38:55 - Quantile Regression Superior to OLS for Bitcoin00:42:04 - Measuring Self-Similarity: Weighting and Time Scales00:44:15 - Log-Time Weighting for Stable Power Law Regression00:48:48 - Bitcoin's Scale Invariant Power Law Properties00:52:34 - Comparing Regression Methods and Stability00:56:18 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Differences00:58:14 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Impact01:00:44 - Decay Functions and Bitcoin Supply Modeling01:04:19 - Building a Mathematical Model for Price Distribution01:09:08 - Decay Functions vs Linear Quantile RegressionHosts: Matthew Mezinskis,Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comPodcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!

In this episode, Matthew sits down with Giovanni Santostasi to explore one of the most rigorous frameworks for understanding Bitcoin: the power law and log-periodic behavior of price cycles. The conversation begins with the launch of the Scientific Bitcoin Institute, aimed at bringing academic rigor to Bitcoin research across physics, economics, and data science. Giovanni then explains his “eigenmode” approach, showing how nearly 97% of Bitcoin’s price behavior can be explained by a power law trend, with the remaining movement driven by oscillatory cycles.The discussion dives deeper into whether Bitcoin truly follows a four-year cycle, or if that pattern is simply a byproduct of more complex log-periodic oscillations that stretch over time. Giovanni argues that what appears to be repeating four-year cycles may actually be elongating cycles, with a major peak potentially forming around late 2027. He also breaks down his accurate call for a late-2024/early-2025 downturn, driven by models suggesting Bitcoin would remain close to its power law rather than overshoot dramatically.The episode concludes with a broader macro lens, comparing Bitcoin’s decelerating growth rate to the exponential growth of traditional finance, raising the possibility of a future “phase transition” where Bitcoin reshapes the global monetary system.Follow Giovanni on X: @Giovann35084111Visit BitPoseidon Official Site of the Bitcoin Power Law: https://bitposeidon.com/Crypto Voices: Episode 197Hosts: Matthew Mezinskis, Michel, Alec HarrisMusic: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/Donations to Porkopolis Economics via BTCPay are appreciated: https://donations.porkopolis.io/Show support appreciated: donations.cryptovoices.comAlec Harris's havenX: https://thehavenx.com/Podcast & videosBitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & libertyThanks for watching!