Dock Treece

Good news Wednesday and stocks come through. All three major indices were up as Congress inches toward another covid relief package. Lumber prices are up 120% since April but have moderated since September. Lumber cost has added, on average. $16,000 to the cost of a single family house.A real life story about customer service.A quote from the WSJ story, "Industrial production decreased sharply in March and April as the coronavirus pandemic took hold in the U.S., but has gradually recovered in subsequent months. The pace of gains slowed in late summer and into the fall, however, and output overall in November remained 5% below February levels, according to the Fed."

Tuesday, stocks were up in the morning but sold off in the afternoon. The DOW saw a 400+ intraday swing. The decline was a surprise given the vaccine hit the street yesterday.The decline may have been driven by NYC Mayor de Blasio warning that he may order a full shutdown in the next few days.The U.S. Treasury computer system was hacked, in March, and was only recently discovered. But never fear the voting system cannot be hacked.The following quotes from the WSJ consumer confidence article are very confusing, " In its November Survey of Consumer Expectations, the central bank found households reporting the highest level of expected spending growth since July 2016, at a predicted 3.7% rise for a year down the road,". Followed by, "Despite the expected rise in spending, “respondents were more pessimistic about their households’ financial situations in the year ahead, with more respondents expecting their financial situation to deteriorate,".

Monday, the DOW was up Friday but the S&P and the NASDAQ were down.Pfizer ships the vaccine for delivery today.IPO market is the hottest since 1999. As proof Airbnb is now worth more that Marriott, Hilton and Hyatt COMBINED.Huntington Bank announced a merger TCF Financial.Friday I talked about the price of oil rising while gas prices are low. I think I discovered one of the reasons.Oracle leaves California for Texas. Quote from the article, "...yet another of the Bay Area’s best-known brands — Oracle — is pulling up stakes and headed east to Texas, too."

Friday, stocks were little changed yesterday and the news is conflicting. New jobless claims rose but job opening in manufacturing hit an all time high. And everywhere I look I see 'now hiring' signs.We are in a pandemic driven recession yet U.S. household net worth hit a record in the third quarter. Stock and housing prices are credited with the gains.A quote from the attached article "The net worth of U.S. households rose to a record in the third quarter as the value of stock portfolios and real estate surged, a Federal Reserve report showed, highlighting the skewed nature of an economic recovery that has disproportionately benefited wealthier Americans."What's your plan?

Thursday, stocks took a rest yesterday. Oil hit its highest level since before the pandemic. Job openings surprised to the upside.Yesterday I spoke about the price of flat steel rising and today I found the attached article. The web site is not mainstream but the charts interested me. The article includes charts that show the increasing prices of commodities and the declining value of the dollar. It would be hard for anyone to look at these charts and argue there is no inflation.Away from the markets Hunter Biden appears to have legal problem as he is officially being investigated according to a statement he released. Let's not jump the gun on his guilt. 17 states are now supporting Texas in their voter fraud case and 48 states have filed suit to break up Facebook.

Good news Wednesday and stocks come through. Dow was up but the S&P and NASDAQ hit all time highs.More details on the NFIB numbers.Redbook retail sales slipped.A friend who uses flat steel in his business emailed me yesterday that prices on flat steel have gone from .30 per pound to .50 per pound in the past few months and it looks like it is headed higher. Don't worry there is no inflation.Elon Musk is in the news for several reasons: 1) Tesla is going to issue and sell more stock. 2) FCC awards Musk's SpaceX / Starlink $886 million in subsidies. 3) Elon Musk moves his residence to Texas. Quote from the article:"Taking up residence in Texas comes with personal benefits for Mr. Musk: The state doesn’t collect state income or capital-gains tax for individuals. The auto executive qualified this year for billions of dollars in stock-option compensation as part of a pay-package agreement, making him the second-richest person in the world."

Tuesday, the NASDAQ hit a new high yesterday but the S&P and the DOW declined slightly.Some very good news locally, according to an article in the Blade UPS is building a new facility in Wood County that will bring 600 new jobs and LEWCO is building a facility in Ottawa County that creates 163 new jobs. Consumer credit declined as people paid down credit cards.Toll Brothers Inc. the builder of luxury homes said sales are up 7% year over year and contracts are up 68% the strongest market in 30 years.Several weeks I recommended a book, the attached article expresses the same outlook in shorter format.

Monday. Stocks, as measured by the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ hit all time highs Friday. Employment growth is slowing so here is Wall Street's thinking, slower employment growth means more free money from the Fed which means higher stock prices. Party time.The coronavirus has devastated the U.S. economy but has created a boom for the Chinese economy. Chinese exports are up 21% year over year most of which went to the U.S.Class 8 truck sales (semi trucks) orders surged to the 3rd highest ever. Sales are up 33% month over month and 197% year over year.The attached article is an eye opener. Colleges and universities are having to deal with reality and it's not pretty. Higher education will have to adapt or die. Quote from the article:"... presidents of struggling colleges around the country are reacting to the pandemic by unilaterally cutting programs, firing professors and gutting tenure, all once-unthinkable changes."

Friday, no big moves in stocks yesterday. Other news was mixed with employment news dominating the cycle. New jobless claims dropped, announced job cuts rose and the ISM services index declined.The attached article points out something I commented on months ago and that is the pandemic will change the jobs landscape. A quote from the article: "But unemployment data overstates the health of the labor market because the supply of people either working or looking for a job has declined. The U.S. labor force is 2.2% smaller than in February, a loss of 3.7 million workers."If Biden becomes President expect more immigration and the Republicans will help him. "Mike Lee (R) introduced S.386 bill helps the Fortune 500 and Silicon Valley firms to annually trade green cards to 140,000 mid-skilled foreign workers in exchange for taking the starter jobs and routine jobs needed by U.S. graduates of all ages — especially as the country emerges from the coronavirus crash." Out take from a Breitbart article. Remember it was Trump who slowed immigration not the republicans.Get ready for change.

Thursday the DOW was up slightly with the S&P setting a new high.Mortgage applications was the lone bright spot in the reports yesterday.I have attached 2 articles today that need close attention. The first motor vehicle fell below 16 million units annualized. A 3 month low.The second article is the ADP job creation report and it was a disappointment, the weakest since July.As I said yesterday economic indicators are starting the weaken, pay attention.

Good news Wednesday and stocks come through. The S&P and the NASDAQ hit new all time highs and the DOW was up but not a new high. Precious metals recovered from a recent pull back. Gold is up $50 in 2 days and silver is up 8% over the same 2 days.More retail sales news, some good some not. Another company announces a move from California to Texas.The 10 year Treasury creeps higher as China sell Treasury bonds. So who is buying all the debt the U.S. Government is selling?Quote from the attached article: "The market has been fueled higher in recent weeks by optimism that Covid-19 vaccines will help accelerate the economic rebound. That has fueled a rally in stocks that are sensitive to economic growth, including energy and banks."

Tuesday, stocks were down yesterday. It's too early to call a peak in economic activity but the reports coming out are showing a stall in activity.Is it political or a normal business cycle?Joe Biden is announcing his appointments should be become President. The potential appointments are not unknown they all have long public records. Investors need to study their records and adjust their investments accordingly. See the attached article. Quote from the article: ".....drawing on veterans of the Obama administration and progressive think tanks. Their past views on inequality, labor economics, education and budget deficits offer a guide to how they could shape the administration’s policies."A total of 12 articles of impeachment have officially been filed against Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine over abuse of power during the Chinese coronavirus pandemic. For me the question is not if the action he took helped control the virus but was his action constitutional.

Monday, black Friday was a bust for in person shopping. Online shopping was up but it's too early to know if it will make up for the personal shopping drop. What does this mean for brick and mortar retailers?? Quote from the article: "Roughly half as many people visited stores on Black Friday as they did last year, according to research firms that track foot traffic. Meanwhile, online spending jumped 22% from a year ago, making it the second-best online shopping day ever measured by Adobe Analytics." New home sales dropped month over month but still up year over year,New jobless claims rose for the second week in row. Two weeks doesn't make a trend but it's worth watching.

Good news Wednesday and the markets come through. The Dow closed above 30,000 up 60% since March.The housing market news was good but consumer confidence not so much.Elon Musk is now the second richest man in the world. His net worth has increased $100 billion (that's BILLION) this year.Yesterday I posted an article from Zerohedge titled "Investors Go All-in Without a Safety Net".A quote from the article: "The markets are indeed currently exceedingly exuberant on many fronts. With margin debt back near peaks, stock prices at all-time highs, and “junk bond yields” near record lows, the bullish media continues to suggest there is no reason for concern.Of course, such should not be a surprise. At market peaks – “everyone’s in the pool.”

Tuesday, almost the end of a short week. The Dow was up and is closing in on 30,000.Bitcoin is just short of 19,000.Biden is in the process of announcing potential members of his administration. I you liked the obama years you'll be seeing a lot of familiar names.Facebook messenger can hear you.The attached article is further evidence of how the pandemic is changing how and where we live. A quote fro the article: “I don’t believe we should have an environment where management is not involved with those determinations, because what you could get into here is a situation where employees then become the decision-maker in working literally from anywhere, and you would have a hard time organizing and holding together a culture if that was the case.” And just what would that culture be??

Monday, the beginning of a short week that is packed with reports housing, unemployment, consumer attitudes, durable goods orders and more.Stocks were down Friday but futures are looking higher this morning.Another vaccine making a total of 3 now with 90% + effective rate.Corporations are starting to pay dividends again. After tightening the purse strings during the pandemic they are feeling better about restarting paying dividends.The attached article outlines the changes in the automotive industry. The model is more like the european model where it is common to order a car and wait for delivery. This will be a test of the instant gratification mentality of the American consumer. Quote from the article: "For months, dealer stocks have been running about 25% thinner than normal, a hangover effect from two months of pandemic-related factory closures last spring. The shortfall is requiring many buyers to order their cars and wait a few weeks, running counter to the American car shopper’s desire for instant gratification, and dealers’ impulse to send the customer home in a new car that day."

TGIF, a late day rally saved the Dow from another loss yesterday.The only bright spot in the news yesterday was the existing home sales report. Existing home sales were the highest in 14 years. Selling prices jumped 15% year over year.Jobless claims rose and the Philly and Kansas City manufacturing indices dropped.Online airline bookings dropped again.This year the online shopping season will be the online scam season.

Thursday, stocks were down again yesterday. I guess the thrill of a vaccine has worn off.Mortgage applications rose again and housing starts were double the expected increase.Bitcoin is at the highest since 2017.The attached article documents how the economy and employment are changing as a result of the pandemic. A lot of people are making more money, the reason is telling.Quote from the Wall Street Journal article: "The coronavirus destroyed jobs. It also created entrepreneurs.To adapt to the pandemic and the job loss it unleashed, more Americans are becoming their own bosses, setting up tiny businesses to work as traveling hair stylists, in-home personal trainers, boutique mask designers and chefs. A man in Maryland started a mobile car-washing business.Many new entrepreneurs previously worked at salons, gyms and restaurants, in the kind of face-to-face jobs erased when state orders closed swaths of the economy in the spring. The economy has since mounted a split recovery, with some Americans thriving while many others continue to struggle. A cohort of the laid-off, stuck on the descending arm of that recovery, are using their ingenuity to get off it."

Good news Wednesday but stocks take a breather from the recent rally. Other economic news was good but shows signs of slowing. Retail sales were up for the 6th straight month, industrial production was higher (see attached article) and the housing market index is at the highest level ever.Soybeans are near a 4 year high and WalMart says the supply chain isn't keeping up with demand. If we were not in the middle of a political mess where would the economy be?If Biden becomes President what should we expect as big changes?Quote from the attached article: "Economists said they expect to see production continue to make up lost ground in the coming months since demand for goods has held up better than demand for services."

Tuesday, Dow and S&P 500 hit new all time highs. Who's worried about the virus, politics, the economy, stimulus running out at the end of December or anything else? Investors believe the Federal Reserve has this and they won't let anything bad happen. Let's hope they are correct.Empire Manufacturing index reported yesterday and it slowed considerably.The attached article indicates retail property owners are learning to adapt. Quote from the article: "Mall operators, faced with a sharp downturn in foot traffic, are looking into the viability of converting empty commercial space into mini-fulfillment centers for their remaining retail tenants, technology vendors and analysts say."If politics were not involved I wonder just how fast the economy could recover.