DoubleLine Minutes

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the week ended Nov. 21, with stocks lower on AI speculation skepticism (0:48), positive high-grade bond returns (2:17) and easing commodities (4:36). Their macro review (9:08) includes the resumption of the government statistical mills, idled by the 43-day shutdown, which churned out a mixed bag of overdue labor market data. While fed funds futures are pricing in likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut Dec. 10, Eric Dhall warns weeks of macro prints lie ahead and regards the odds at this point in time as a coin flip. Among the prints due during the Thanksgiving week ahead (19:45), Eric and Mark will be on the lookout for stale-but-we’ll-have-to-take-it September reports of the PPI, retail sales and durable goods; and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for November.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap a mixed market week (Nov. 10-14) that marked the end of the federal government shutdown and production of the penny. Equities were up a bit on the week with some pretty interesting dispersion (00:34); fixed income was flat (2:32); energy pumped up commodities (3:49); and Bitcoin fell below the important structural marker of $100k (6:25), with Eric and Ryan noting that the drop is reflective of broader risk sentiment. Over in Macro Land (11:04), they discuss the timeline for government data releases and the likelihood that there will be some holes in October prints. Among non-U.S. government data sources (14:56), they review small-business optimism, weekly payroll numbers and state jobless claims. Next week (18:22) will deliver the FOMC October minutes and some PMI numbers.

DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Eric Dhall review a negative week ended Nov. 7, 2025, for stocks (00:48), with the year’s high-flying Tech and Communication Services sectors the worst performers on the week; a mixed bag in fixed income (3:06); and flat commodities (4:00). With government JOLTS, payrolls, factory orders and trade reports sidelined by the federal executive branch shutdown, macro pickings (5:43) were largely limited to private data sources, including contractionary manufacturing and expansionary services reports from the ISM. One notable exception was a Congressional Budget Office quantitative analysis relating projected lengths of the shutdown to hits to fourth quarter GDP growth. “The shutdown is really starting to weigh on the economy,” Eric notes, “as we know that government spending is additive to the GDP equation.” Looking to macro reports for Nov. 10-14 (10:08), Jeff Mayberry notes, “If you think Nov. 3-7 was bare, next week is terrible. There’s nothing. No CPI, no PPI, no retail sales. As for the Small Business Optimism number, that’s it for next week.”  

DoubleLine Cross Asset Analyst Mark Kimbrough and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review a week ended Oct. 31 with just two sectors, tech and consumer discretionary, holding the S&P 500 above water, and risk sectors of fixed income – high yield, bank debt and emerging markets – showing gains with investment grade sectors lower as yields shifted higher across the curve. On the macro front, the first meeting by U.S. President Trump in his second term with China President Xi, Ryan notes, “removed some of the tail risk of further trade-war escalation.” However, the week’s biggest market-moving event came out of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee, as expected, cut the federal funds target rate 25 basis points. Powell’s flat advisory against assuming a further rate cut at the Dec. 10 FOMC meeting lowered market-priced probabilities for such a cut from as high as 95% to 60% and pushing yields up along the curve. Looking ahead to Nov. 3-7, given the idling of government statistical mills during the shutdown, Mark and Ryan have private-sector data releases for October on their menu: ISM Manufacturing (Monday); ADP private employment and ISM Services (Wednesday); University of Michigan consumer expectations survey (Friday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough analyze the week ended Oct. 24 with stocks with tech leading on a benign September CPI print, fixed income eking out its carry and commodities led higher by WTI on U.S. sanctions against Russian crude oil. Gold, they note, posted its first negative week since mid-August. On the economic front, in the absence of national jobless claims data due to the federal government shutdown, Mark Kimbrough notes state-level stats suggest no undue stress in labor markets. S&P Global PMI data show an expansionary U.S. economy in both manufacturing and services sectors. Turning to the effects of the government shutdown, Mark unearths some research from the 1970s indicating that while delays in data collection probably will have little impact on the quality of the October nonfarm payrolls once that statistical series resumes reporting, biases due to poor memory recall could degrade the fidelity of the household U-3 unemployment survey and especially the CPI for the month of October. Looking ahead to the week of Oct. 27-31, Jeff and Mark will be especially interested Wednesday in guidance coming out of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (after it is expected to lower the federal funds rate by a quarter point) and from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s news conference.

DoubleLine Portfolio Jeff Mayberry and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review the markets and macro news for the week of Oct. 13-17 as the government shutdown reaches Day 17. It was a pretty positive week for stocks (00:29), with the only negative sector, financials, impacted by “a string of one-off credit events”; the Agg was up during a pretty quiet week for fixed income (3:07); and commodities were up (5:13), with precious metals up despite a dip in gold. It was another light week for macro data due to the shutdown (7:12), but Jeff and Ryan look at metrics including small business optimism, state jobless claims and credit card data. Fedspeak (13:05) events included Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell discussing QT policy ahead of the blackout period for the October FOMC meeting. Jeff and Ryan also field a listener question on whether mortgage rates coming in due to mortgage spreads tightening could lead to inflation (14:37), with them noting that rates would have to come in a lot for the current dynamic to change.

 DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review the Oct. 6-10 week, punctuated by a Friday trade-war fright that reversed the week’s gains in stocks (0:27) and spurred a flight to safety into bonds (3:47). Commodities (6:11) followed energy lower, and gold consolidated near $4,000 an ounce. The “debasement trade” (6:25) attributed to gold’s winning streak is a topic for discussion, with Eric and Mark reminding listeners that despite gold’s luster as an asset outside the manipulations of fiat currencies, ultimately central banks’ appetite for bullion, or lack of it, will help decide where gold prices go from here. The week’s macro data (10:00) showed gradual weakening in consumer credit and, via the FOMC minutes, a flock of “scared doves” behind the Sept. 17 fed funds rate cut. Due to the government shutdown, the Oct. 13-17 week (17:41), Eric and Mark note, perhaps will be most notable for the scheduled government indicators that are NOT released: CPI, PPI and import prices on the inflation front and retail sales. Among the few major releases expected are the Federal Reserve’s beige book and industrial production report.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap the market week of Sept. 29-Oct. 3 against the backdrop of a federal government shutdown. Eric and Ryan discuss the continuing strong run for equities on the back of high-fliers for September, Q3 and year-to-date (00:25) as well as healthy returns across all three time periods for fixed income (3:54) and commodities (5:38). While data delivery was light in Macro Land due to the shutdown, Eric and Ryan do take a look at prints that reflect a softening labor market (14:37), waning consumer confidence (19:00), weakening PMI numbers (19:44) and lower home prices (21:49). Next week could be a light week or very light week for data (24:35), depending on the shutdown, with the University of Michigan consumer survey among the nongovernmental prints on the schedule.

DoubleLine Portfolio Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough chart a quiet week ended Sept. 26 for equities (0:36) and fixed income (1:53) while commodities advanced led by energy. The week’s macro prints (4:40) included preliminary expansionary readings for manufacturing and services on the S&P PMI for September; revision of second-quarter GDP to 3.8% annualized; and Core PCE preserving a disinflationary trend, albeit with a recent pick-up in services prices. Looking ahead (12:25) to the week of Sept. 29-Oct. 3, the big question will be whether a budget standoff between congressional Republicans and Democrats leads to a government shutdown on Oct. 1. If the federal bureaucracy goes dark, private data such as the ADP employment report, Jeff Mayberry notes, could become more important than usual, given the absence of Bureau of Labor Statistics data and other reports.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel dissect the Sept. 15-19 week, with stocks (0:22) rallying to new highs on tech, comm services and consumer discretionary; yield-curve steepening (2:15); and commodities weakening amid strength in precious metals (3:40). The week’s macro news (7:04) was dominated by the Federal Open Market Committee’s quarter-point fed funds rate cut and comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Sept. 17 indicating a preoccupation with risks to the labor market, albeit in a context of ongoing concern about the future path of inflation. While forecasts in some corners called for as many as three FOMC member dissents, only newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran, who has called for three 0.5% federal funds rate cuts over the last three FOMC meetings of 2025, voted in disagreement with Wednesday’s quarter-point cut. However, Eric and Ryan take note of the extraordinary dispersion among FOMC members over the future course of monetary policy. Looking ahead to the week of Sept. 22-26 (21:43), Eric and Ryan will be particularly focused on the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for August. Based on CPI, PPI and import and export prices, economists’ consensus forecasts a relatively benign month-over-month increase of 20 basis points (0.20%), which would leave the year-over-year Core PCE increase unchanged at 2.9%.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough recap a pretty positive run for markets for the week of Sept. 8-12, with performance impacted by investors believing a Fed cut is all but assured next week. The tech sector pushed the S&P 500 to more record highs (1:05), fixed income was supported by a rally on the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve (3:27), and commodities were up on the back of industrial and precious metals (6:06). Over in Macro Land, the BLS released steep prelim benchmark revisions to establishment survey jobs data, but Eric and Mark caution the final numbers could vary (7:57); Mark breaks down the deceleration in the PPI print (11:02); Eric and Mark look at the most recent CPI print and whether its supportive of a Fed cut (13:43); they review job numbers that are supportive of a Fed cut (16:15); and they talk about the latest dour outlook in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (17:36). Next week, all eyes will be on Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, with the only real speculation is on whether it will be a 25-bp (most likely) or 50-bp cut and if FOMC nominee Stephen Miran will be approved in time to participate in this meeting.

Stocks (0:33) were mixed the week ended Sept. 5 as yields (1:51) fell across the fixed income universe and commodities (4:16) were flat with gold among the winners and crude oil and industrial metals lower. In the week’s macro news (5:12), DoubleLine Fixed Income Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel notes, was dominated by weakening in the labor market in August. That weakness, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry says, translated into the federal funds futures market pricing in 2.9 quarter-point cuts over the last three meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2025 and six cuts, totaling 150 basis points, over the next 15 months. Looking ahead to the Sept.8-12 week (16:09), Jeff and Ryan will be on the lookout for Bureau of Labor Statistics revisions (Tuesday), August producer price index (Wednesday), consumer price index and jobless claims (Thursday) and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (Friday).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough review a mostly quiet week ended Aug. 29 and the month of August. On the week, equities (0:40) proved a mixed bag, with energy leading upside sectors, and utilities and tech heading lower. Tech pressured by news Chinese artificial-intelligence startup DeepSeek will rely on Chinese chip manufacturers. Common stocks also witnessed outperformance in small-cap and equal-weighted indexes. Fixed income (2:43) hosted further steepening of the Treasury yield curve. Commodities gained (4:18), led by precious metals, with the dollar ending the week flat.   Amid the week’s mostly benign macro news (5:15) such as a bounce-back in capital goods orders decent personal income and spending, Mark Kimbrough notes, a positive second-quarter GDP report notwithstanding, a weak 1Q-2Q growth rate for private domestic final purchases. Turning to Fed watch (11:46), Jeff Mayberry reports the futures markets on Aug. 29 are pricing in an 88% probability of a federal funds rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee meets Sept. 17 and 2.7 quarter-point cuts total in 2025. Looking ahead to macro news (12:29) in the abbreviated week of Sept. 2-5, Jeff and Mark will be especially focused on the August nonfarm payrolls and unemployment reports due on Friday.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel review the market week of Aug. 18-22, which started out as a little bit of a down run for equities before being boosted by Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday. Chair Powell’s comments seemed to raise prospects for a Fed rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. In addition to the stock bounce, fixed income (3:20) and commodities (4:50) had positive weeks. Eric and Ryan conclude the market recap with a review of Chair Powell’s speech and the market reaction to what had been expected to be a more hawkish stance (5:40). Over in Macro Land (10:35), topics covered include housing data; labor numbers; and strong S&P Global PMI prints, which notably contrast with ISM’s weaker prints. Next week’s releases will include durable goods data and the latest PCE number.

 DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough dissect a market week ended Aug. 15 marked by positive stocks, with an interesting dispersion within the asset class (0:46); bonds troubled by inflation readings (3:14); and flat commodities (4:45). The week’s macro calendar (7:38) was packed with inflation news. After a noncommittal July CPI, a hawkish July PPI prompted a selloff in rates and moderated Fed rate-cut probabilities for the remainder of 2025, with the futures market pricing in two cuts by year-end. On Friday, a 4% import-prices jump for July exceeded expectations, albeit the year-over-year change was -0.2%. Looking ahead to the week of Aug. 18-22, Eric and Mark will have on their radar (19:59), among other news, the FOMC July 30 meeting minutes (Wednesday) and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech (Friday) at the Kansas City Fed’s annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel break down market moves of the week ended Aug. 8, 2025, following a volatile stretch driven by geopolitical headlines and shifting interest-rate expectations. They discuss a rebound in equities (00:56), a modest pullback in fixed income after last weeks’ rally (2:48), a mixed picture for commodities (4:04) and currency dynamics (7:08). Over in Macro Land (9:35), Eric and Ryan review a quiet data week, highlighting durable goods revisions, ISM services softness and jobless claim trends. They also explore the implications of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut in September and the nomination of a dovish Fed governor. Next week’s prints will include possibly impactful CPI and PPI reports (18:26).

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey the stock, bond and commodity markets for the month of July (0:37) and the “week of volatility” ended Aug. 1 (3:39). The latter, they note, was driven by a week packed with macro news (7:41). That environment included a more hawkish-than-expected Fed chairman amid rare public dissents on the FOMC on Wednesday and Friday’s overwhelmingly negative payroll and unemployment reports. Mark Kimbrough also singled out the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly funding announcement (9:16). With elevated deficits locked in under Trump’s budget legislation, Mark notes there was “a sigh of relief” in the T-bill market after the government announced “nominal-coupon and floating-rate auction sizes are expected to remain stable for the next several quarters.” Jeff Mayberry, watching fed funds rate expectations (21:33), says the futures market, on Powell’s guidance, Wednesday had priced in 1.3 quarter-point cuts by the end of 2025. Those market odds surged to 2.3 cuts on Friday’s labor reports.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Mayberry and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel recap the week ended June 25, featuring a run of daily highs for the S&P 500 Index buoyed by resurgent retail speculation, a pretty good week for bonds (3:58) and more struggles for commodities (6:00). Over in Macro Land (7:15), it was a light week of prints, including a dip in the LEI, some soft home sales data and a mixed picture for PMI manufacturing and services. Next week (14:20) will bring the FOMC meeting and the possibility for rate-cut dissent drama and potential Fed chair auditions as well as labor, inflation and GDP numbers.

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Analyst Mark Kimbrough survey the week ended July 18, including tech-driven new highs in equities (0:46), a bond market shaped by a steepening yield curve (2:28) and gains in the broad commodity market (4:42). The week’s macro news (6:52) was led by tame reports on the consumer and producer price front. Core CPI for June posted its fifth consecutive monthly surprise to the downside versus consensus expectations. Notwithstanding a short-lived media trial balloon from the Trump administration about firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the markets (16:09) are pricing in no action on the fed funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 30, and only two cuts in the second half of 2025.

For the week ended July 11, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Eric Dhall and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Strategist Ryan Kimmel first sort through a pause in the stock rally (0:47), bonds (2:34) giving back a bit on higher rates and higher commodity prices (4:34) amid U.S. tariffs announced on copper. While “copper got hit with a 50% tariff in the U.S.,” Eric Dhall notes July 11 that copper prices fell on the London Metal Exchange over the week while rising 9% in the U.S. “A bit of a mismatch there depending on where you’re delivering copper.” The impact of the tariff remains an open question. “It depends on how the tariff applies. Does it apply to raw copper ore? To finished copper? It’s a complicated beast. That’s why you didn’t see the U.S. price surge more than that 9%.”   Ryan Kimmel (6:19) notes that stocks seem to be interpreting tariff drama as negotiating tactics rather than a serious threat to growth. Meanwhile, in the wake of passage of President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” he sees “higher term premium baked into the long end” of the Treasury yield curve. Surveying macro news for the past two weeks (7:42), Eric Dhall and Ryan see more weakness in labor markets than would suggest a superficial read of headline household and establishment survey numbers, with the prospects of a diminishing labor force given an expected ramp-up of illegal immigrant deportations.   Turning to Fed watch (13:52), Eric and Ryan note increasing odds of a cut in the federal funds target rate at the Sept. 17 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. They ponder the prospect of an “Apprentice-style battle” among candidates to succeed Chairman Jerome Powell. All eyes during the July 14-18 week (15:20) will be on Tuesday’s release of the June CPI report, especially any indications of tariff impacts, and Wednesday’s release of the PPI.