Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

Labour's questioning the Government's decision to bring forward the introduction of the Treaty Principles Bill.  The bill was introduced to the House yesterday ahead of its first reading next week.  If adopted, it would set treaty principles into law to be used when interpreting legislation.  Labour's Justice Spokesperson, Duncan Webb, told Ryan Bridge that introducing the bill 11 days earlier than expected appears to have been a strategic move.  Webb says introducing it during US election week has helped keep it on the "low down".  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The meat sector is bracing for the impact of a Donald Trump presidency.  The President-Elect has campaigned on tariffs of up to 20% on all imports, with higher tariffs for imports from China.  The US is our largest market for red meat.  Meat Industry Association Chair Nathan Guy told Ryan Bridge the tariff plan will hit the sector pretty hard.  He says it will hit US consumers even harder as they'll have to pay more for the red meat and burger patties we produce.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rosemary Banks – remember that name. She now has one of the most important jobs for New Zealand – a potentially $2 billion job. She's woman in Washington DC, our ambassador to the United States. Her mission: get us an exemption from Trump's tariffs. The scale of the problem: massive. Early estimates show that at 20% it could cost us $1.7 billion every year. Total exports currently $8.8 billion. It can be done: the Aussies got an exemption on steel and aluminium in 2018 under Trump. Is she up to the job? I'm told yes. If anyone can do it, Rosemary Banks is the person you want up there. I'm told she has excellent contacts in the Republican Party and is working the phones hard. She was asked to stay on by Winston Peters back in May, in anticipation Trump might get in. She's the same ambassador who was in charge when we nearly got an FTA during Trump's first term. Of course, it's not all on her. Winston and Todd McClay and Luxon will play their parts too. But the ground game is on Rosemary. We may have some advantage here in that we export food, and food is something Trump probably doesn't want to make more expensive. Then there's the uncertainty of whether Trump will actually make good on his campaign big talk. Rosemary's not waiting round for that certainty, they have a plan and by God it better be a good one. We like to hate on diplomats - oh they just go to nice dinners, drink wine and shmooze. Well, it's time to crack out our best pinot, use the contacts and make the deals happen. The weight of our export nation is on your shoulders. Best of luck.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Friday 8th of November, what could Trump tariffs mean for our red meat industry? Nathan Guy from the Meat Industry Association speaks to Ryan.  New details on the Treaty Principals Bill which has been introduced to Parliament. Labour's Duncan Webb joins the show to discuss.  Can the All Blacks win against Ireland this weekend? Newstalk ZB's Voice of Rugby Elliott Smith is on the ground.  Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Thursday 7th of November, in a historic win - Donald Trump is set to head back to the White House for a second term. Former Prime Minister John Key talks to Ryan about why a Trump victory is good for the economy.  Famous Election Analyst Sean Trende discusses the win for Trump and Republicans, who are set to take back control of the Senate. Republican and former Marco Rubio staffer Matt Terril has rection from the GOP.  Markets have reacted positively to the news - what does it mean for the New Zealand dollar and our markets set to open later this morning. Mitch McCann is live in Detroit Michigan, where the state is yet to be called - and when are we expecting to hear from Kamala Harris.  Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s been a successful night for the Republican Party.  While control of the House is still up for grabs, Republicans have won control of the Senate, and Trump has claimed the Presidency.  Trump says his return to the White House will usher in a ‘golden age’ for America.  Matt Terrill, Marco Rubio’s Former Chief of Staff, told Ryan Bridge Trump has been clear throughout the campaign what he plans to do with the power of the Senate, Presidency, and likely the House of Representatives.   He says that it’s one thing to win the Electoral College, but to have control of both chambers of Congress, that mandate will allow him to go in and implement the policies he campaigned on.  LISTEN ABOVE  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the space of 12 hours the whole world has changed.  Not only is Trump back baby, but he's more powerful than ever.  Republicans have flipped the Senate and are on track to retain the House of Representatives.  That gives the GOP enormous power to set budgets, start or stop funding wars, and impose tariffs on anyone they like.  Kiwi farmers and primary producers, our exporters, the backbone of this trading nation, will be waking up this morning with a pit in their stomach.  America is our second largest export market, overtaking the Aussies last year. Tariffs on our meat and dairy could be a brutal blow.  Plus, our number one trading partner in China is about to whacked even harder by Trump's Washington.  A trade war could wipe almost 1% of global growth in the next year, which is tipped to be around 3.5%. That's massive, and will send shockwaves around the world, and we will feel it.  Add in Trump potentially pulling support for Ukraine's war and his bullish comments on the Middle East and you've got yourself a highly unpredictable and, to use a couple of overused terms, unprecedented and consequential, set of variables.  For all the hand-wringing pre-election that Trump was an existential threat to democracy, that very system has elected him the 47th President, serving his last term with more power. This is Trump unleashed.  Buckle up and brace yourselves. Everything we knew yesterday about the global economy and global conflicts is about to change. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Having a clear winner so early in the US Election process could give some certainty for investors.  Donald Trump is set to return to the White House, having claimed more than the 270 Electoral Votes needed.   Markets are reacting strongly to the win, the US dollar surging in value, and bitcoin hitting a record high.  But, Infometrics Principal Economist Brad Olsen told Ryan Bridge, there could still be some nerves and jitters until Trump is sworn in.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There’s a range of emotions in the United States following Election Day.  Donald Trump has claimed a likely win, securing more than the 270 Electoral College votes needed to secure the presidency.  While Kamala Harris is yet to formally concede, CNN projects that Trump will secure 276 votes, and Harris only 223.  US Correspondent Mitch McCann told Ryan Bridge the mood was sombre at the Democratic watch party in Detroit, the event even closing down early as everyone was going home.  On the other hand, he says there are a lot of happy Republicans, with one of his contacts feeling “like a million bucks!!!!!”.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s been a tense night in the United States as the vote were counted.   While the House is still up for grabs, CNN projects Republicans will win control of the Senate and Trump will win the popular vote.  Political analyst Sean Trende told Ryan Bridge the result has exposed some real pressure points for the Democrats.  He says that Trump won one in four black male votes, and black voters have been a backbone of the Democratic coalition since the 1930s.  Trende says that to see Trump make those advances suggests there’s something really amiss in the coalition.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump's victory in the United States is being hailed as historic. He is promising to turn around America, upon his return to the White House. While Kamala Harris is yet to concede defeat, CNN projects Trump will secure 276 votes, while Kamala Harris will secure 223. Plus, CNN projects the Republicans will win control of the Senate, while control of the House is still up for grabs. Former Prime Minister Sir John Key told Ryan Bridge he's not surprised by the scale of the victory.  "Once you've got polls indicating that two thirds, if not more, of the country think you're going in the wrong direction, when the big issues are the issues you're campaigning on, then a change is very likely," Sir John say.  He told Bridge there is likely to be a downside for New Zealand - with Trump's proposed tariffs on foreign goods.  "I think there will be some tariffs, he's talking about 60 percent in China and 10 to 20 percent around the rest of the world," he said.  "But of course, that has some quite big repercussions, not only for us, but actually the consumers that pay that so I wonder whether that might be tempered a little bit," Sir John says.  "There is some downside for New Zealand and I'm not going to sugarcoat that, and they concern me."  But he says there are upsides as well - like a strong stock market and a vibrant capital market.  LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US is bracing for protests, regardless of who wins today's election.  The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is expected to go down to the wire, with the final result being determined by key battleground states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina.  Washington DC is installing reinforced fencing in the Capitol, over fears of protests if Harris wins.  And former Democratic Party Treasurer Bill Derrough told Ryan Bridge there could be protests in Democrat strongholds like New York, if there's a Trump victory.  He says that tensions are very high, and the rhetoric is very intense.   LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trying to control kid criminals – you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. This week, a document from children's minister Karen Chhour on the subject was leaked. It says giving military-style boot camp providers the power to use force in extreme circumstances would be controversial. Well, of course it would. But what are you meant to do? Let the kids punch each other and not intervene? Let them run on the road, let them escape and just wave goodbye as they leave? Oh, he's nearly killing the other kid. Well, remember we can't actually do anything so we'll just watch it happen. How can you run a boot camp without the last resort right to intervene and restrain where necessary? Rawiri Waititi says it's disgusting and unacceptable, and I can understand why Rawiri is worked up on this one. The abuse in state care inquiry showed the worst that can happen. What went on was disgusting and disgraceful. But does that mean that we can never use programmes to rehabilitate these young or serious offenders ever again? And where does that leave them? In adult jails? They don't like that. In youth detention centres? They don't like that either, plus they escape from these things pretty regularly. At home? Well, they were there, but they committed serious crimes repeatedly. So, where does that leave the kids and the governments tasked with trying to sort them out? Well, between a rock and a hard place with an impossible job on their hands, that's where.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New data out this morning is expected to show the job market has caught up with the economy.  Stats NZ is releasing the latest unemployment rate at 10.45.  Economists believe it will rise from 4.6% in the June quarter to about 5% in the September quarter.  ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Ryan Bridge that until now, employment has been holding up in spite of the economic downturn.  He says that situation now appears to have changed.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Claims of voter fraud are already hanging over the US election as millions of Americans head to the polls.  Almost a third of eligible voters have cast an early ballot.  Experts say the result could go either way, with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris still neck-and-neck in the key battleground states.   FSN Correspondent Nick Harper told Ryan Bridge there are fears Trump will sow confusion and misinformation by calling his win prematurely.  He says if Trump were to lose, it's likely he will claim the vote was rigged against him.  Harper says it may be days until the final results are clear.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 6th of November, it's Election Day in the United States. We're live to New York with the Democrat's Former Treasurer Bill Derrough, to get his thoughts ahead of the polls closing tonight.  Nick Harper joins us live from Washington D.C. where Kamala Harris will be holding her election night event.  Back home, unemployment numbers are due out this morning, and economists are predicting we'll hit 5%. ASB's Nick Tuffley speaks to Ryan.  Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Principals are welcoming a new method for bringing students’ failing maths back up to standard.  The Government's announced a trial programme over the first two terms of next year, for about 2000 Year 7 and 8 students behind in maths learning.  It will use small-group tutoring and supervised online tuition for 30 minutes, up to four times a week.  Auckland Primary Principals' Association President Kyle Brewerton says the hybrid system sounds good.  He says the approach has some merit, because it identifies the fact that one size doesn't necessarily fit all.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Homeownership continues to be the dream for most Kiwis, but a growing number of us think we'll never achieve it.  Kiwibank's latest State of Home Ownership Report has found 85% of people want to own a home, with most believing it's the key to getting ahead.  But over two-thirds of non-homeowners doubt they'll ever own a home, with millennials particularly pessimistic.  Simplicity Founder Sam Stubbs told Ryan Bridge KiwiSaver is now the key for most people, but the long wait to save for a deposit is a problem.  He says either wages have to increase, taxes have to decrease, or people have to put more in KiwiSaver.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Get out your fascinators and place your bets: it's Melbourne Cup Day.  The 164th running of the Melbourne Cup begins about 5pm.  Donna Demaio is Newstalk ZB's Melbourne Cup correspondent at Flemington.  She told Ryan Bridge there are 24 horses in the final field for this year's big race.  They include three trained in New Zealand: 'Trusting You', 'Positivity' and 'Sharp and Smart'.  In addition, she said, this year there are also four women jockeys for the second time ever.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

America is heading to the polls as a nation deeply divided down partisan lines.  Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are making their final pitch to voters on the eve of election day, with latest polling showing the pair remain locked in a tight race.  Harris has strong support from women voters, while Trump has been gaining ground with Hispanic voters, especially men.  Herald Deputy Political Editor Thomas Coughlan told Ryan Bridge opinions are different everywhere you look.  He says parts of each battleground state show clear preferences for either candidate.  LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.