Engaging the Eagle - Exploring U.S. Foreign Policy in Southeast Asia

The results of the U.S. election will have important implications for most countries, including China. There may be a broad consensus on the need to compete with China among both the Democrat and Republican parties, but a Harris presidency would offer a relatively familiar set of challenges as compared to a second Trump administration. From the threat of 60% tariffs on Chinese imports to potential expansions to new tech restrictions, a “Trump shock” would have important implications for the U.S.-China relationship. How are Chinese leaders preparing for the outcome of the election? 

As U.S.-China competition heats up, one area of concern for security scholars is that of a potential conflict over Taiwan. Some U.S. scholars and analysts suggest that the U.S. should abandon its long-standing approach of strategic ambiguity in favour of strategic clarity. Meanwhile, Chinese officials and scholars have expressed increasing concerns about changes in the U.S. One China Policy that have already occurred. What do these trends mean, and what can we expect from Washington and Beijing?

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s whirlwind tour across six countries in the Indo-Pacific region has had important implications for U.S. engagement in the region. His busy schedule included two two-plus-two meetings in Manila and Tokyo, where Mr. Blinken and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met their Philippine and Japanese counterparts for high-level discussions. These meetings also produced key deliverables such as the announcement of a new “joint force headquarters” in Japan and a US$500 million pledge to increase Manila’s military capabilities. What can we make of Mr. Blinken’s region-spanning visits, especially in the face of the election in November?

The Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) is a track 1 intergovernmental security conference held in Singapore that gathers participants from across the region to discuss issues such as U.S. leadership in the Indo-Pacific. This year’s iteration of the summit saw competing visions for regional cooperation offered by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun, the former outlining a vision for network of partners and the latter speaking of China’s “five principles of peaceful coexistence.” The summit also saw a surprise in-person appearance by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who sought to raise awareness of a mid-June peace summit on Ukraine, while hot topics for discussion included the South China Sea, the Israel-Hamas War and Taiwan. Join us as we sit down with William Choong, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute and former Shangri-La Dialogue Senior Fellow for Asia-Pacific Security at IISS, to reflect on whathappened at this year’s SLD.

The emergence of a web of scam compounds in Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos is not just an issue for Mekong countries. The criminal syndicates that operate from these compounds are estimated to steal over US$43.8 billion from Mekong countries every year and conduct their financial and administrative operations in other Southeast Asian countries. This poses a series of challenges for the United States. American citizens lost an estimated US$3.5 billion in 2023 to scam actors in Southeast Asia; more broadly, these criminal syndicates weaken state authority in Southeast Asia and make it more challenging for Washington to promote its strategic interests. Join us for a conversation with Alvin Camba, Assistant Professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver, and faculty affiliate at the Climate Policy Lab at the Fletcher School at Tufts University, to discuss this important topic. 

As the civil conflict in Myanmar rages on, there are ongoing questions about how regional actors such as ASEAN and the United States should calibrate their responses to the crisis. In particular, is there a practical case for the value of democracy for global interests such as peace, security and development? How are these efforts being received in Southeast Asia? Join us for a conversation with Ambassador Derek Mitchell, non-resident senior advisor to the Office of the President and the Asia Program at CSIS, to discuss this important topic.

As U.S.-China competition heats up in the field of technology, Southeast Asian economies find themselves in a unique position with both benefits and risks. Investments have poured into the region from multiple parties, seeking to take advantage of factors such as mineral wealth and low labour costs to manufacture crucial components for EV supply chains. However, there are geopolitical risks that must be managed as well. Join us as we speak with Dr Cung Vu, Visiting Senior Fellow at RSIS and former-Associate Director of the Office of Naval Research Global and Chief Science and Technology Adviser of the National Maritime Intelligence-Integration Office, US Department of the Navy, on this important topic.

From Europe to the Middle East, numerous crises have emerged during the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden. This has fuelled debates over whether the U.S. has the capacity to address all of them at once – or, as some have argued, whether the U.S. should prioritise its interests and pick its fights more carefully. Join us as we speak with Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, on this important strategic issue.

Based on data from numerous news and polling agencies, all signs point to Prabowo Subianto being the likely winner of Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential election. Amid questions about the composition of his government and the policies he will prioritise while in office, an important consideration is what he will bring to the foreign policy table.   Prabowo’s election manifesto underlined climate change, the conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, and potential armed conflicts with China in the South China Sea as some of the key strategic challenges facing Indonesia. He is expected to be more engaged in foreign policy as compared to his predecessor, Joko Widodo, though he claims to share his predecessor’s goal of eradicating poverty. It will be interesting to see how he will influence Indonesia’s responses to the AUKUS pact, Indonesia’s recently-signed Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the U.S., and Indonesia’s path amid geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China.

On 13 January 2024, Taiwan voters elected Lai Ching-te as their president, keeping the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in power for a third straight term. The election had been deemed as a crucial signal for Cross-Strait Relations for the next four years, with Beijing ominously framing it as a choice between “peace and war, prosperity and decline.”  There are concerns about how Beijing will respond to Lai’s victory, given how they repeatedly labeled him as a “stubborn worker for Taiwan independence”. On the other hand, Washington was quick to congratulate Lai, though President Joe Biden took pains to highlight that the US does not support Taiwan’s independence.  It will be important to see what the results of this election mean for Cross-Strait Relations and the fragile détente between Washington and Beijing. Given Southeast Asia’s proximity and economic ties to both sides of the Strait, it will also be important to gauge their response to these developments.

Barely two weeks after South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s successful meeting with United States President Donald Trump in the White House, the US-South Korea relationship was once again disrupted by a record-breaking ICE raid on a Hyundai-LG plant in Georgia, which saw the arrest of over 300 South Korean workers on visa charges. As the dust slowly settles from these episodes, whatcan we make of the overall state of the US-South Korea relationship? What should we make of the investment deal that was agreed between the two leaders during the White House meeting? What repercussions will the factory raid have for the economic relationship between Seoul and Washington?Join us for a discussion with Dr. Su-Hyun Lee, Senior Associate Fellow at the Centre for Multilateralism Studies and Coordinator of the MSc in International Political Economy Programme at RSIS, as we discuss US-South Korea ties.

What is the current state of American strategy in the Indo-Pacific? While he shuns multilateral groupings and institutions, US President Donald Trump is not an isolationist, and ostensibly has a vision of how he wants to engage the Indo-Pacific. But is there a coherent strategy at play? What can we surmise from the first six months of his second term, and what can we expect from US strategy in this region in the near future?  Join us for a discussion with Professor Hal Brands, the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. At the time of the recording of this episode in August 2025, he was the S. Rajaratnam Professor of Strategic Studies at RSIS.

US President Donald Trump’s tariffs have captured the public imagination in much of Asia – yet it is important to look past the specific tariff rates that he has threatened or assigned to each country. How have Trump’s tariffs impacted US engagement with Asian economies, particularly Japan? How is the Japanese government responding to his demands, and what can we expect going forward? Join us for a discussion with Dr Makio Miyagawa, Adjunct Senior Fellow at RSIS. Dr Miyagawa has held successive positions at the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, including Legal Desk Chief, Deputy Director of the US-Japan Trade Division and of the Russian Division, and Director within the Economic Affairs Bureau and Asia Oceania Bureau.

It is often said that Southeast Asian countries reject a zero-sum choice between aligning with either Washington or Beijing, preferring to engage both parties in the pursuit of their national interests. Yet a recent study has shown that despite the intentional preferences of these Southeast Asian governments, their policies point towards a drift towards China. What could this mean for the region, and what could Washington do to reverse this drift? Join us for a discussion with Professor Joseph Liow, Tan Kah Kee chair of Comparative and International Politics and Dean of the College of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.

Can the US still fight a major war? Does it still possess the industrial base to fuel a prolonged war effort, the political will to put aside partisan differences, and a myriad other factors that need to come together to allow it to prevail? How does this tie into United States Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue? In this episode of Engaging the Eagle, Dr. Steven Metz provides insights into the implications of the Ukraine war on US military strategy, the challenges facing the US defense industrial base, and the evolving nature of military recruitment and ethos. The conversation also touches on the federalization of the National Guard in response to domestic issues and the impact of social media on presidential communication and public perception.