Eurodollar University

What a massive mess. No clear direction. Dots all over he place. And that's just the start. We've got Canada, too. Replay of FOMC decision livestream as Pringles win again.

China's yield curve is being reshaped in a way that has created confusion across the spectrum. Even policymakers at the PBOC are talking about the need to do something. However, market behavior is consistent with what we're seeing around the rest of the world and how it all relates to China finding a way out of its mess and hitting upon a real recovery. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see what you've been missing - and it's A LOT - then join us at Eurodollar University. Our memberships have got you covered where it comes to mastering monetary mechanics. You won't find this anywhere else. https://www.eurodollar.university/memberships---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg China Bond Slump Fuels Speculation PBOC Will Resume Debt Buyinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-14/china-bond-slump-fuels-speculation-pboc-will-resume-debt-buyingReuters Chinese money flows into bonds even as central bank warns of riskshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinese-money-flows-into-bonds-even-central-bank-warns-risks-2024-06-27/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For the first time ever, French bond spreads are higher than those seen in Italy (both compared to Germany). This isn't just about "fiscal consolidation" worries and France's government budget, the real issue behind everything is economic differentials. Those need to be turned around and soon else France risks being the new, well, Italy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------NYT French Government Collapses, Again, Deepening Paralysishttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/world/europe/france-vote-government-collapse.htmlCNBC France’s Macron names loyalist Lecornu as new prime ministerhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/france-macron-names-lecornu-new-prime-minister.htmlCNBC France’s borrowing costs rise after Fitch downgrade — and there could be more bad news aheadhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/frances-borrowing-costs-rise-after-fitch-downgrade-.htmlBloomberg French Borrowing Costs Top Italy’s in Historic Market Shifthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/french-borrowing-costs-top-italy-s-in-historic-market-shifthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The oil business is heading for a big bust, putting Texas in the crosshairs. While that's obviously not good for the economy as a whole, energy does tend to be a leading indicators and when the jobs starting being lost in the space in a big way it's a big red flag. Consumers know it, given what was also just reported from them, too. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metre---------------------------------------------------------------------------In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on.If you don’t have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University’s comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/---------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Since the July payroll report came out, something seems to have snapped out there in the offshore eurodollar world. Two key sources are signaling a turn toward substantial tightening. Here we go over what those signals are, how to read them in context, and what they mean going forward. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see what you've been missing - and it's A LOT - then join us at Eurodollar University. Our memberships have got you covered where it comes to mastering monetary mechanics. You won't find this anywhere else. https://www.eurodollar.university/memberships---------------------------------------------------------------------------FRBNY Triparty Repohttps://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/data-hubhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/sniderYesterday's 10-year note auction produced something we've never seen before, and it totally upended everyone's expectations if not more. With the macro climate being what it is, the 10s sale was a "victim" of the increasingly prominent curve reshaping we're seeing everywhere. And "everywhere" absolutely includes the long bond, the 30-year maturity the mainstream has its sights on. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Big Banks Nearly Get Shut Out of Treasury 10-Year Auctionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-10/big-banks-nearly-get-shut-out-of-treasury-10-year-auctionBloomberg Trump Isn’t the Only Reason the Price of Money Is Risinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-11/podcast-trump-isn-t-the-only-reason-the-price-of-money-is-risinghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQSubscribe @21Shares on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@21sharesFollow @21Shares on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/21shares_/Follow @21Shares on Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/21shares-us/Follow @21Shares on X: https://x.com/21Shares_USIt wasn't actually the record downgrade to payrolls that stood out the most. Far more important, the QCEW confirms there is a very good chance a recession began LAST YEAR. Not just the forgot how to grow kind, a full-blown one even mainstream Economists and the NBER will be recognizing. The evidence continues to show we all went from forgot how to hire to remember how to fire. The Fed's fifty next week is all but set.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says the economy ‘is weakening’https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-economy.htmlBloomberg US Payrolls Marked Down a Record 911,000 in Preliminary Estimatehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/us-payrolls-estimated-to-be-911-000-lower-in-year-through-marchStanley Fischer The Great Recession: Moving Aheadhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/fischer20140811a.htmChristopher Waller Let’s Get On with Ithttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20250828a.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUDisclaimerThis video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

A record downward revision to payrolls adds to the evidence the US labor market is in dire shape while also heading in the wrong direction. In this video, we go over not just those details but also look ahead at the possible financial consequences should conditions continue to deteriorate in the way they appear to be. What else might be triggered by job losses in the real economy? More than a few possibilities. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Gold keeps soaring and not because of inflation. We know this without any doubt because as copper prices remain stuck, rising bullion against it has crashed the copper-to-gold ratio down to RECORD LOWS. That isn't about expectations for a crash, instead the market is expressing rising probabilities as to the future. One in which the latest data from FRBNY on job finding expectations fits only too well. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------In a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That’s why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on.If you don’t have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University’s comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. https://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com------------------------------------------------------------------------FRBNY Survey of Consumer Expectationshttps://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/scehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQThere was one key stat from this week which helps explain the increasingly desperate state of the US labor market, offering background behind the "unexpectedly" weak payroll numbers from Friday. August's estimate was its lowest since...May 2009. Given the connection to employment, it all fits together with so many other signals including record low copper-to-gold. Yep, record low. Eurodollar University's weekly conversation w/Steve Van Metre-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------For more information on 21shares and to sign up for their newsletter, visit https://bit.ly/3JTI4GQ-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ISM Services August 2025https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/august/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUDisclaimerThis video is sponsored by 21Shares. The information provided in this video is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Products mentioned may not be available in all jurisdictions, and their suitability will depend on your individual circumstances. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Payrolls were ugly, a big miss for August on top of revisions to June which pushed the monthly change negative. If that wasn't enough, a rising unemployment rate after a crash in full-time employment. Plus, a plunge in Canadian payrolls punctuate the turning point for North American jobs. Rates were down sharply, no surprise. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Themehttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/Eurodollar University's Deep Dive Analysishttps://eurodollar.university---------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's not what everyone says, watch what they do. Big companies and big banks (JPM, too) are making heavy preparations for sharply lower interest rates. The former, in particular, have basically revived the long-dormant commercial paper market in a clear sign. At the same time, US and global banks are remaking their balance sheets in critical and unambiguous ways. Even some Fed officials are now seeing it, too. R is back to being an ultra-low STAR.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Themehttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg America Inc. Swaps Decades for Days in Rush to Commercial Paperhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/30-years-try-30-days-america-inc-flocks-to-commercial-paperCNN Be prepared for 7% interest rates, warns Jamie Dimonhttps://www.cnn.com/2023/10/02/investing/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-7-percent-interest-rate-recessionFRBNY John Williams All the Stars We Cannot Seehttps://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/speeches/2025/wil250825Bloomberg Won Advances After BOK Governor Defends Currency Interventionhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-28/won-gains-after-bok-rhee-s-comments-on-forex-intervention-goalshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Dollar Tree says after seeing a major influx of especially middle-income Americans in its stores, it won't be able to raise prices. The latest jobs data leaves absolutely no doubt why that is. According to the turnover stats, the US labor market LOST jobs in June and July.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------WSJ Dollar Tree Shares Fall as Tariffs Dampen Near-Term Outlookhttps://www.wsj.com/business/retail/dollar-tree-boosts-outlook-as-sales-jump-c48b7461WSJ Dollar General Draws Shoppers Across Income Levels, Raises Outlookhttps://www.wsj.com/business/retail/dollar-general-boosts-outlook-after-earnings-rise-95e4bff8https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

After trading conspicuously sideways for the past four months, gold has finally broken out of its range. However, at the same time the US dollar exchange value is threatening to do the same - by moving HIGHER. It's a bad combination: rising gold, higher dollar, and falling interest rates. If any doubts remain about what's really happening, the copper-to-gold ratio leaves everyone no doubt.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Themehttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Why Investors Can’t Seem to Get Enough of Goldhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/gold-price-record-why-bullion-is-safe-haven-amid-tariffs-inflationhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Chinese stocks are heading into orbit, taking off like a rocket ever since the US and China reached an agreement to not inflict the worst of trade wars. Curiously, though, the Chinese economy has further deteriorated which means the equity surge is looking more and more like something we've seen before from Shanghai.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's One Big Weekly Themehttps://eurodollaruniversity.substack.com/---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg China Stocks Are Sending Warning Signs on Liquidity-Driven Rallyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-25/china-stocks-are-sending-warning-signs-on-liquidity-driven-rallySCMP 4 reasons fears of China stock market bubble are misplacedhttps://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3323431/four-reasons-fears-china-stock-market-bubble-are-misplacedhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Once Federal Reserve policymakers start making total sense, that's when you know. Officials are seeing the data the same way(s) we are, meaning a mess in jobs combined with an absence of any sign for tariff inflation. A big one came this week with a leading voice voicing caution and a growing possibility for that September fifty. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Christopher Waller Let's Get On with Ithttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/waller20250828a.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

There is no escaping the Pringles can. While the Bank of Canada has been on hold with its rate cutting since March, Canadian GDP, payrolls and even the latest Canadian CPI figures leave no doubt. Plus, the globally synchronized implications will be heard in central bank deliberations worldwide. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don’t miss out!------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

Two-year Treasury yields set a new almost-year low, falling below their prior April chaos lows. The yield curve is undergoing a profound reshaping that explains a lot more than Jay Powell's Jackson Hole performance. It also perfectly indicates what long-run interest rates are also doing as well as likely to do moving forward.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Says US Yield-Curve Shape Looks Like Zero-Rate Erahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/goldman-sachs-says-us-yield-curve-shape-looks-like-zero-rate-erahttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

France's government is going to collapse again in a couple weeks. While everyone was distracted by trade wars, the underlying schism in politics remained unresolved. France is between a rock and a hard place, trying to fix its budget. Here's the thing: both the rock and the hard place are the same thing. Eurodollar University's Money and Macro AnalysisI’m excited to share something I’ve negotiated for you guys: you can now get a Glint Card for FREE (normally $10) just by registering with my code ‘SNIDER’ or filling out the form on the page I’ve linked below.All the details and more about Glint are at https://partner.glintpay.com/eurodollar/. Don’t miss out!------------------------------------------------------------------------------------CNN France fears new political crisis after PM’s confidence-vote gamblehttps://www.cnn.com/2025/08/25/europe/francois-bayrou-french-confidence-vote-intlCNBC ‘Our country is in danger’: French PM takes confidence vote gamble over budget woeshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/french-pm-takes-confidence-vote-gamble-over-budget-woes.htmlBloomberg France’s Government Risks New Collapse, Weighing on Marketshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-25/france-s-government-risks-another-collapse-weighing-on-marketsBloomberg French Political Crisis Dashes Hope of Business-Led Recoveryhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-27/france-s-political-crisis-dashes-hopes-of-business-led-recoveryhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUThis video was sponsored by Glint. Graphic representations of value are for illustrative purposes only. The Glint Debit card is issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. The sale, purchase and storage of precious metals are offered by Glint, and not Sutton Bank. Your investment in precious metals through Glint is:-Not insured by the FDIC.-Not a deposit or other obligation of, or guaranteed by, Sutton Bank.-Subject to investment risks, including the possible risk of loss of the principal amount invested.All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. The value of precious metals is affected by many economic factors, including but not limited to the current market price, demand, perceived scarcity, and quality of the precious metal.  Precious metals can increase or decrease in value. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As such, investing in precious metals may not be suitable for everyone.Glint Pay Inc. is a U.S. based authorized Card Program Manager, not a bank. Banking services are provided by our partner Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Glint Pay Inc. employs effective Anti-Money Laundering (AML), Countering the Financing of Terrorism (CFT), and fraud prevention systems and controls to mitigate and combat risks.

Consumer fears over jobs increased yet again in August, as did expectations for a recession. Relatedly, two separate sources confirmed housing prices in the US fell yet again in their latest monthly estimates. Related because the one is causing the other; fears over jobs that aren't strictly fears are reducing demand for homes and a whole lot more. Deep down, even Jay Powell knows it.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That’s exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jay Powell's August 2025 Jackson Hole speechhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20250822.pdfConference Board August 2025 consumer confidence https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/Bloomberg Weak US Housing Outlook Sends Australia’s Reece Tumblinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-08-25/reece-tumbes-lithium-optimism-us-stocks-australia-briefinghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU