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Expected Own Goals

Expected Own Goals
Author: xpectedowngoals
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Evan Davis and Eric Morgan are best friends who love each other. But they love women's soccer more. Every week, the guys sit down to explore the tactical and analytical sides of the women's game, covering the NWSL, USWNT, WSL, Women's Champions Leauge, Liga MX Femenil, and beyond. No stone is left unturned as they seek to learn more and more about how women's soccer is played, who's good, who's not, and who is going to win it all.
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Four more teams punched their tickets to the NWSL playoffs, while Racing Louisville and the North Carolina Courage are staring each other down. Meanwhile, the Orlando Pride grabbed an emphatic win on the road against a rotated Washington Spirit. What are we to make of the Pride's regression in 2025? How have they coped without Barbra Banda? And can they return to the Championship game in a tight playoff field?
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
Visualizations by Catalina Bush for ASA Viz Hub
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The Kansas City Current have officially become the best regular-season team in NWSL history. Their win over Gotham ensures that they will break the all-time points-per-game record, plus a slew of other feats. After the whiparound, the guys walk through some key games from the second half of the year to try and see ways teams like Washington, Orlando, and Seattle could potentially spoil KC's party.
Like & subscribe to our YouTube page and watch the first volume of our Anatomy of series!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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Only three games left in the NWSL regular season, and Racing Louisville pulled off an emphatic road victory over the North Carolina Courage to solidify their playoff aspirations. Meanwhile, the San Diego Wave dropped yet more points and slid yet further down the table. Can Racing feel comfortable yet? Will the Wave be able to stay afloat for another month? Can the Courage somehow haul themselves back above the playoff line? The guys try to figure it all out.
Check out the latest episode of our Anatomy of series on YouTube!
Follow us on TikTok and Instagram
Subscribe to our Patreon for only $6/month to get exclusive bonus content, including the show ad-free!
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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The Seattle Reign—who take fewer shots than anyone, and whose defense is mediocre at best—are somehow in fourth place in the NWSL standings. How did we get here? How did they? After a quick whiparound (and a check-in on the Hina Sugita and Chloe Ricketts transfers), the guys dive into season that Laura Harvey's squad has had: what they have done right, what they have done wrong, and just how lucky they have been to be in this position. Plus, Evan makes another fateful wager.
Check out the latest episode of our Anatomy of series on YouTube!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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Only five games remain in the NWSL regular season, and hardly anything separates those teams on either side of the playoff line, not to mention those hoping to grab a home game in the playoff quarterfinals. Which team's schedule sets them up for success? Who will fall despite recent form, thanks to some tough games in October? The guys move through all 14 teams to try and make sense of the playoff picture.
Watch the latest episode of Anatomy of... on YouTube!
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Check out ASA Viz Hub for all of your NWSL dataviz needs!
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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Savannah DeMelo's collapse on Lumen Field on Sunday quickly became the most important story in the NWSL. DeMelo was responsive and alert before she was stretchered off the field, and thankfully, the league tried to learn from their poor handling of the Savy King incident by suspending the match. The guys offer some quick thoughts on DeMelo as a player, and what has made her special throughout her career.
Then, after the whiparound, the guys dive into Gotham FC's decisive 2-0 road win over the San Diego Wave. Can Gotham continue this rich vein of form, now that most of the attack is healthy and Jaedyn Shaw is among their ranks? What can the Wave do to stop the bleeding, aside from another swing of luck? Who can stake a claim to a top-four place by season's end?
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Watch Episode 1 of Anatomy of..., our new video series, and like/subscribe to our YouTube channel!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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Ah, this reminds us of our early days: Gotham FC drops a massive, shocking transfer for a U.S. women's national team player, bolstering their galácticos reputation. This time, Jaedyn Shaw heads north to Harrison, New Jersey for $1.25 million in intra-league transfer funds, the biggest intra-league transfer in NWSL history. Why didn't it work for Shaw in North Carolina? Does this deal set up the Courage for long-term success? Where will Shaw play in a crowded (and now-healthy) Gotham attack? The guys sort through all of it.
Subscribe to our YouTube page to catch the premiere of the "Anatomy of..." series on Wednesday, September 10th!
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Subscribe to our Patreon for as little as $6/month to get exclusive bonus content!
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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Though all three are still firmly planted in the bottom half of the table, the fortunes of the Utah Royals, Chicago Stars, and Houston Dash have changed considerably over the past few weeks. They produced emphatic results over the weekend (including Chicago's best xG performance in three years), and the guys dig into what has changed for each club since the end of the international break. Can Houston possibly even snatch a playoff place? Never say never!
Subscribe to our YouTube page to catch the premier of our brand-new video series, Anatomy Of... on Wednesday September 10th!
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Subscribe to our Patreon for as little as $6/month to get exclusive bonus content!
Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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We interrupt your regularly scheduled programming to scratch our heads at the $1.3 million (or almost-$1.5 million, or $1.65 million) transfer fee paid by Chelsea F.C.W. to Angel City for Alyssa Thompson's services. How did a 20-year-old U.S. women's national teamer with tremendous upside and more than three years left on her contract move for not even a world-record fee? The guys puzzle over what little we know, and who might have been responsible for this unfolding as it did.
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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A very intense Labor Day shaped up for the NWSL. After the guys whip around the league, they drill down into Angel City's first-ever results against Bay FC, a 2-1 victory at BMO Stadium. Then, they explore Alyssa Thompson's likely transfer to Chelsea. What do we know right now? How likely was it that Thompson wanted the move? What makes this a good deal for Angel City? And what could make this a disastrous deal for the club?
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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The NWSL acted semi-normal this week, so we can concentrate on the actual soccer. The guys whip around the league and touch on the Morgan Gautrat loan to Newcastle before examining Racing Louisville's 1-0 squeaker against the San Diego Wave. What have these two teams already accomplished this year, and what more can we expect from them in the weeks to come? Everything's coming up roses for Jonas Eidevall and Bev Yanez!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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RECORDED BEFORE THE ALYSSA NAEHER - LIZBETH OVALLE INSANITY
For the second week in a row, we do not have a featured game of the week. That's because external forces have pushed the soccer out of the spotlight. Both Kansas City - Orlando and Gotham - Houston experienced triple-digit heat indexes at kickoff, and for the third straight weekend, the NWSL saw more than half its fixtures end in draws, a first in league history. The guys dig into the league's handling of the CPKC Stadium fiasco, and how climate change could affect games for years to come.
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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For the first time in over six years, we saw the second straight weekend where more than half the games ended in a draw. Oppressive heat? Weather delays? Who's to say. The guys whip around the league and tease out the storylines from all seven matches.
Then, they get into Sean Nahas's firing from the North Carolina Courage. They lay out the entire timeline beat for beat, and see what conclusions, if any, they can draw from the Courage's disastrous handling of the situation.
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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The NWSL is back! And boy oh boy not much happened, until everything did. The guys dissect the blockbuster transfer of Ally Sentnor to the Kansas City Current (01:48) then whip around the rest of the league (26:41) before hitting their featured game of the week, the Washington Spirit's 2-1 victory over the Portland Thorns. (34:28) There's tactics, and then there's Trinity Rodman scoring in her first game in four months. We wrap things up dissecting the other insane game of the weekend, Brazil's shootout defeat of Colombia in the Copa América final. (45:20)
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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After more than three weeks and 31 games, we have a new Euros champion and...it's the old champion! England have won their second trophy thanks to some real fortune, opportunistic chance-taking, and another intense penalty shootout. The guys pick through everything England and Spain had to offer, and how this sets up both sides for the World Cup in 2027.
Plus, they analyze a heartbreaking WAFCON final for Morocco, who dropped a 2-0 lead to Nigeria. The Super Falcons regain the trophy for the 10th time in tournament history.
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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Spain took care of business against Switzerland. Italy exposed Norway's weaknesses. Sweden, England, France and a 10-player Germany chucked haymakers at each other for a combined 240+ minutes and two insane penalty shootouts. In the end, it is England and Germany who walk away and move on to the Euros semifinals. The guys take all four games apart and preview this week's two semifinal contests.
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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The group stage of UEFA Women's Euro 2025 has officially concluded, and France is looking pretty unstoppable. Are they? Les Bleues took the Netherlands apart 5-2 to sit at the group D summit, and a weakened Germany await in the next round. Sweden were already in the driver's seat before Carlotta Wamser's red card, but they put the Germans away with ease 4-1 and now face England in the quarterfinal. England demolished Wales 6-1, but which version of the side will show up against Sweden this week? The guys break it all down, and make their predictions for the semifinal matchups.
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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The first round of the group stage at UEFA Women's Euro 2025 is in the books! Evan and Eric round up all the action, plus the second round from groups A & B, to marvel at Spain's demolition of two minnows, Iceland's unjust elimination, and Norway's ability to keep getting away with this.
Then, the guys dive into the group stage's marquee matchup, France's 2-1 defeat of England. How did things go so wrong for Sarina Wiegman's side? In what ways did Laurent Bonadéi's tactics suprise? How can England possibly save their Euros title defense now?
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
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Part 2 of our Euros preview attacks groups B and C. Spain and Germany are the group favorites. Could Sweden pip the Germans to the top group spot? Does Denmark stand a chance on the back of Pernille Harder? Why do people keep thinking Portugal are dark horses? And won't someone please think of the poor Italians? Plus, our predictions for the knockout stage!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
Chapters
Spain: 00:58
Italy: 10:31
Portugal: 16:07
Belgium: 21:05
Germany: 23:09
Sweden: 29:53
Denmark: 34:51
Poland: 38:10
Tournament predictions: 43:23
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The Euros are here! Kicking off Wednesday in Switzerland, 16 teams vie for the biggest trophy in European women's football. The guys analyze Groups A and D in part 1 of their two-part preview. How does Switzerland compare to previous tournament hosts? Is Iceland the tournament's dark horse? Can the Netherlands weather their injury worries? What's going on with France's lineup? Could England really repeat as champions? Find out!
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Art by Eli Elbogen
Music by Devin Drobka's Bell Dance Songs
Chapters
Norway: 03:29
Switzerland: 08:54
Iceland: 14:35
Finland: 19:38
England: 22:32
France: 28:17
Netherlands: 34:50
Wales: 39:23
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