The real yield curve may steepen from both ends much further then it has, Mizuho Securities Head of Macro Strategy Dominic Konstam says on this Macro Matters edition of FICC Focus podcast. Konstam joins host Ira Jersey, head of interest-rate strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence. After reviewing Konstam’s career arc, the two discuss term premium and how shifts in the yield curve could effect risk assets. Konstam thinks Trump Administration policies will continue to weight on the dollar. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.
Fiscal policy returned to the forefront of G10FX drivers in early September — which isn’t particularly positive for the dollar — and part of the structural bear case we identified earlier this year. In this episode of FICC Focus, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief G10FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Dr Win Thin, chief economist at Bank of Nassau 1982 Limited argue that the dollar’s next leg lower could be cyclical in nature, with any further weakening in US non-farm payrolls likely to engender continued Fed rate-cut talk into the September FOMC Meeting. Win and Audrey also acknowledge a less-supportive context for the euro, but conclude on enough dollar bearishness to validate $1.20 euro-dollar later this year. For now defensive FX such as the Swiss franc has its merits. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Commercial real estate debt strategies continue to unlock value for institutional investors as providing credit solutions across the capital stack grows increasingly more complex. Jim Dunbar, partner and head of Real Estate Lending at Varde Partners, joins BI chief fixed income strategist Damian Sassower to discuss his firm’s approach to identifying opportunities and managing risk in commercial and residential real estate. Dunbar and Sassower discuss the role of flexible capital in real estate finance, with a focus on engineering returns, servicing loans and scaling strategies.
Defense burden-sharing among US allies is a cornerstone of President Donald Trump’s international agenda, but has been overshadowed by tariff discussions. On this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series, George Ferguson, senior aerospace/defense & airline analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins host and BI chief interest-rate strategist Ira Jersey to discuss shifts in defense spending and weapon systems. They also examine how spending may shift based on proximity to threats. Ferguson assesses the companies that may benefit from these increased outlays, and some of the challenges in fulfilling orders. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.
Significant Risk Transfers or SRTs have been a crucial part of balance sheet management for banks and an attractive investment class within private credit for credit investors looking for alternatives to public credit markets. Demystifying SRTs and understanding the process and evaluation of these assets is crucial for credit investors. In this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Global Head of Credit Strategy at Bloomberg Intelligence hosts an investor, Matthew Moniot, Head of Credit Risk Sharing at ManGroup and a seller, James Plunkett, Head of Capital and Risk Distribution at Natwest along with Lento Tang, Senior Bank Analyst who has published a survey on SRTs, in a highly informative podcast. The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify
The perception of the UK economic outlook on a macro level may be perceived to be negative through the lens of social media. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI chief global derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu is joined by Dan Hanson, chief UK economist at Bloomberg Economics to discuss the state of the economy, bond market volatility and the fiscal outlook.
“So it’s a tough situation when you’re managing a spread-based portfolio, like a CLO. And obviously we don’t have the luxury of tightening the spreads on the liability side,” says Matt Bloomfield, partner at Palmer Square and president of Palmer Square Capital BDC, when discussing the current pace of re-pricings across the leveraged loan market. Bloomfield joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about traditional and static CLOs, a less-conventional approach to business development companies and Palmer’s roots in opportunistic credit. They also discuss relative value and the current credit landscape, the advantages of scale, diversification and leverage.
The future of the dollar is dictated by the large overhang of unhedged dollar assets, says Hemant Baijal, head of macro alpha strategies at Invesco. Baijal joins Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s head of US interest-rate strategy, and Will Hoffman, BI’s senior US and Canada rates-strategy associate, on this episode of the Macro Matters podcast to discuss the world of international bond funds. They cover strategic approaches to managing global rates, credit and FX risks, and how those have shifted in recent months. They also explore relative value across nominal and inflation-linked curves. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.
Global credit is very tight and strategic insights are very valuable at this juncture. In this latest episode of the Credit Crunch podcast, Mahesh Bhimalingam, Global Head of Credit Strategy hosts the Global Credit Strategy team to highlight worldwide research, data and views. Meet Tim Tan and Jason Lee (Asia), Basel Al-Waqayan (Middle East), Heema Patel (Europe) and Reto Bachmann (Structured Finance) as you get to know their research and data along with their key views on the markets and themes they cover. All strategists discuss the place of their markets in world credit, relative value, and their new product launches. Visit BI STRTA, BI STRTE, BI STRTN and BI EMFIG to access all their research and data. Credit Crunch is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen to this episode on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
The record-breaking pace of muni issuance and investors’ risk-off tone toward duration have driven a sharp steepening of the municipal yield curve, leaving it trailing other fixed-income sectors. In an environment also marked by market volatility and shifting policy dynamics, the case for active management in munis has never been stronger. In this episode of the Masters of the Muniverse podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Karen Altamirano talks with Jason Hannon, head of municipal strategy and senior portfolio manager at Wilmington Trust, about how this year’s developments are shaping muni investment decisions.
“So for us, it’s a $40 trillion market,” says John Cortese, head of portfolio management at Apollo, when talking about the mostly investment grade opportunity in private credit, including asset backed deals and corporates. Cortese joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk about where the growth comes from, the evolution of a secondary market and why private credit works for high grade borrowers. They also get into the shifting landscape in credit trading, the advantages of being big and fast, relative value plays and lessons learned from trading synthetics in the early aughts.
Emerging market economies are benefiting from better-than-expected growth and inflation expectations, with local rates looking set to outperform amid a more dovish US Federal Reserve. Dirk Willer, managing director and global head of macroeconomic research at Citigroup, joins Damian Sassower, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief emerging-market fixed-income strategist, to assess the fixed-income landscape, with implications for interest rate and currency markets across the globe. Willer and Sassower touch on topics ranging from systematic drivers and foreign positioning to FX-hedge flows and central bank reserves.
JPMorgan’s Phoebe White, head of inflation strategy, says a September interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve risks pushing inflation expectations higher. She joins Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss how Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and inflation derivatives work, how investors use them to hedge and JPMorgan’s outlook for breakevens and real yields. The BI US Interest Rate Strategy team has recently published research on TIPS, including a market outlook and an analysis of market structure. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
“I want a decent proportion of my returns to be from actively trading either through themes, individual instruments or...between EM and DM, between Europe and the US,“ says Andrew Jackson, head of Investments and leader of the Fixed Income Boutique for Vontobel. Jackson joined Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Damian Sassower on this episode of the Credit Crunch podcast to talk beta vs. alpha exposures, current risk pricing across credit, the emerging-market landscape and the value in active management.
On the latest episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s State of Distressed podcast, Andrew Axelrod, founder & CEO of Axar Capital, shares how focused distressed debt buyers such as Axar Capital are often the best bid for middle-market troubled loans as they stand ready to commit capital and sweat equity to the turnaround. In his conversation with BI’s Chief US Credit Strategist Noel Hebert and Senior Credit Analyst Phil Brendel (5:55), Axelrod touches on Axar’s “loan-to-own” strategy, what he looks for in management teams, and the importance of “sticking to the process.” The podcast concludes with Negisa Balluku joining Noel and Phil for a roundtable discussion on At Home, Claire’s, CommScope, LifeScan, the SCOTUS pitch in Serta, and Ardagh Group (1:04:33).
History suggests that technology improves lives and standards of living, despite the fears that often accompany it, says Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco. On this Macro Matters episode of the FICC Focus podcast series, Levitt is joined by host Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence’s head of US interest-rate strategy, and Will Hoffman, BI senior US and Canada rates-strategy associate, to discuss the state of the economy and long-term structural trends. The trio also dives into short-term inflation dynamics, strategic investment decisions in times of uncertainty and risks to currently priced narratives across asset classes. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.
The cyclically and structurally dollar bearish narrative that dominated 1H have just been revived by the weakness in the July Non Farm Payrolls figures and associated dovish Fed expectations adjustment (cyclically dollar negative) as well as by the controversial and highly unexpected firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Chief (structurally dollar negative). Bloomberg Intelligence's Chief G10 FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Elias Haddad, Senior Market Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman Investor about whether the recent US dollar rebound may be over already. Elias and Audrey agree that the dollar bear view stays in place beyond near-term summer distortions and with the $1.20 plus euro-dollar year-end case holding for now.
Real estate private credit has grown into a major source of debt financing for the US commercial real estate market, bridging the gap left by traditional banks and lenders. Josh Zegen, principal and co-founder of Madison Realty Capital, joins BI Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Damian Sassower to discuss his firm’s approach to loan origination, acquisition, servicing and valuation. Zegen and Sassower discuss the role of flexible capital in commercial real estate, with a focus on financing costs, return expectations, market trends and institutional appetite.
There’s a wall of money that is a transcendent supportive influence over global assets, says Russ Brownback, co-portfolio manager of the BlackRock Strategic Income Opportunities Fund on this episode of the FICC Focus Podcast. Chief US Interest Rate Strategist Ira Jersey hosts this Macro Matters edition delving into Brownback’s views on the dollar remaining the global reserve currency, finding yield among development market sovereigns, technical factors supporting global asset markets, and his views around select opportunities to sell fixed-income volatility.
Mortgage-market investors will need to pay especially close attention to policy shifts and actions in coming weeks, says Erica Adelberg, chief mortgage strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. On this Macro Matter’s episode of the FICC Focus podcast series, Adelberg is joined by host Ira Jersey, BI’s head of US interest-rate strategy, to discuss the mortgage-backed securities market. Adelberg explores how the MBS landscape is evolving amid recent policy shifts, including GSE-privatization discussions, the broadening of mortgage-credit access through the adoption of VantageScore, changes to VA loss-mitigation strategies and shifting demand across mortgage-backed securities products. The analysis also considers the influence of the Federal Reserve on MBS supply and demand dynamics. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.