SPECIAL GUEST ALERT. We’re delighted to be joined on this week’s episode by Ebury’s Director of China Initiatives, Isabel Ye Qiu. The unveiling of President Trump’s tariffs has wreaked havoc with supply chains globally, particularly in China. How are businesses reacting? Can China keep its advantage over the rest of the region and how can Ebury assist in the current environment. Isabel tells us all! In markets, the dollar sank following the release of another soft US payrolls report. What do...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a dovish surprise at the annual get together of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming last week. Has this effectively guaranteed a September rate cut from the FOMC? And what do fears over Fed independence mean for the US dollar? Our analysts also dissect the latest encouraging business activity PMI figures out of the Euro Area, and break down the implications of last week’s worrisome UK inflation figures for both the pound and Bank of England int...
The EU has finally reached a trade deal with the US! But is this a bad deal for the European economy? How have markets reacted to the news? And what could this mean for ECB rates? We also discuss another batch of quite remarkable economic figures out of the US - could this delay the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts? And we again scratch our heads and try to figure out what’s going on with the pound, which continues to underperform most of its major peers. We’d like to hear from you! Provid...
FX Talk has finally caught up with the times! After nearly five years of hiding behind microphones, honing our radio voices and bringing you audio-only episodes, we’re finally making the leap into the exciting world of YouTube. Brace for some questionable outfit selections, a few bad hair days, and an inevitable stray coffee spill or two. In this week’s episode, we unpack whether the recent “sell America” trade is a thing of the past, attempt to unpack the implications of President Trump’s t...
Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have dominated activity in currency markets in the past fortnight or so. The safe-haven dollar gained across the board as the conflict between Israel and Iran intensified, although news of a US brokered ceasefire has buoyed risk appetite and sent the greenback crashing to its lowest level in three years. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its June policy meeting, with FOMC members appearing divided over the path ahead for p...
The dollar has continued to lose ground against most major and emerging market currencies in the past few weeks. A US court ruling that deemed White House tariffs to be illegal has been delayed pending an appeal. Trade negotiations are ongoing, although these have failed to yield much progress thus far. Investors are also fearful that Trump’s “Big, Beautiful” tax bill could lead to a sharp increase in US debt in the next few years. Thus far, however, the world’s largest economy is hold...
US tariff headlines continue to dominate the narrative in financial markets. Fears over a US recession triggered a sharp sell-off in US equities, Treasuries and the dollar last month. Yet, signs of progress in trade negotiations, particularly following the news of a US-China trade deal, have lifted optimism, and raised hopes that the economic impact of the tariffs will be less significant than initially anticipated. Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates by another 25 basis ...
The US dollar collapsed to its lowest level in three years this week, with investors still reeling from the unveiling of (and subsequent delay to) President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Yet, with Trump and his top team softening their stance towards China, and the President backtracking on his calls to remove Jerome Powell from his position as chair of the FOMC, has the tide turned for the US currency? We also look ahead to the release of next week’s highly important US GDP report. Is t...
It’s been a barely believable few days in financial markets since President Trump unveiled the details of his reciprocal tariffs during his so-called “Liberation Day” on 2nd April. Risk assets crashed on the realisation that the tariffs would be significantly more aggressive than anyone had been anticipating. The dramatic 90-day pause to all trade levies (China aside) has triggered a fresh bout of volatility in markets, and some stocks indices posted among their largest one-day rallies this c...
In this week’s episode of FX Talk, Matt and Roman are joined by our Sao Paulo analyst, Eduardo Moutinho, to discuss the latest headlines in the currency market. The dollar has sold-off sharply against most currencies in recent weeks as investors fear a slowdown in US growth. Yet, with the Federal Reserve sticking to its cautious approach to cuts, is this move lower in the greenback perhaps overdone? Meanwhile, the euro has surged above the $1.09 level this month, buoyed by the news of a mass...
President Trump has followed through with plans to slap massive 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, while also unveiling fresh 10% duties on China. The US dollar would ordinarily be trading higher under such circumstances, but the greenback has sold-off sharply across the board. What is fuelling the move? And how concerning is the recent deterioration in US economic news? Meanwhile, last week’s Ukraine discussions in the White House descended into a farce. European currencies are ...
The outlook for UK interest rates has been clouded once again this week by strong data on the labour market and inflation. The main inflation rate jumped to a 10-month high in January, while the core rate is now printing at nearly double the BoE’s 2% target. Could this herald a slower pace of rate reductions ahead? Or will the committee prioritise supporting Britain’s admittedly fragile growth outlook? Elsewhere, European currencies have been buoyed by hopes of a peace deal between Russia an...
Without question, the only real talking point on investors' lips at present is the protectionist utterings emanating from the recently anointed Trump administration. Risk currencies sold-off sharply after Trump unveiled savage tariffs aimed at Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend, although these moves have since reversed after a number of the trade restrictions were delayed at the eleventh hour. But, what do our analysts make of the headlines? Is Trump serious? Or are these tariff...
Ton-up! FX Talk has reached a century of episodes! In this special podcast recording, we take a trip down memory lane and discuss some of the most memorable moments from our time covering financial markets. From the panic caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers during the Global Financial Crisis, to the Brexit vote, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine. Our analysts also shed some light on how they began following markets, while discussing...
2025 looks set to be another eventful year in financial markets. Focus among market participants will be largely on news out of the incoming Trump administration, particularly details surrounding the Republicans tariff proposals. The world’s major central banks will continue to lower interest rates, as inflation globally gradually returns back to target levels, while growing downside risks to growth could trigger a mild global slowdown. But, what do our analysts see as the main focal point f...
2024 has been another highly eventful year in financial markets. Political developments have dominated the headlines following the collapse of governments in Germany and France, and election wins for Donald Trump and Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. Central banks globally have continued to lower policy rates and we’ve seen another outperformance in the US economy relative to its developed peers. This has boosted the dollar to near the summit of the year-to-date FX performance tracker. Our ...
The main theme in currency markets since the US election has continued to be broad dollar strength. The greenback has rallied against most major and emerging market currencies in the past month, as investors brace for higher US inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve and hefty tariffs under the second Trump administration. The big underperformer in that time has been the euro, which continues to languish near two-year lows. Renewed political uncertainty in France further clouds the outloo...
Donald Trump has once again outperformed the polls and romped home to a comfortable victory in the US presidential election. Markets were bracing for a knife-edge vote but, in reality, it was anything but, with Trump set to win in all seven battleground states once the final results are confirmed. The US dollar soared across the board, posting its largest one-day rally since the Brexit vote in 2016. But, what does the election mean for the US and global economies? And what do our analy...
November’s US presidential election is shaping up to be a highly important risk event for financial markets. Former president Trump has opened up a narrow lead in the latest opinion surveys, although most prediction models suggest that the outcome of the vote is far from set in stone. But what could the result of the election mean for US domestic and foreign policy? How important could the composition of Congress be in the election? And what would both a Trump or Harris presidency mean...
The dollar has roared higher against most currencies since our last episode amid a confluence of supportive factors. Heightened tensions in the Middle East have fuelled safe-haven flows, while triggering a move higher in oil prices. US macroeconomic news has also taken a turn for the better, with last Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report smashing past even the most optimistic of forecasts. In this week’s episode, we discuss the recent rally in the greenback, the FX implications for the ong...