FX Talk - an Ebury podcast

March was an extraordinarily busy month in the foreign exchange market, with a host of major central bank announcements creating an interesting trading environment. The Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank both surprised investors, with the former raising interest rates for the first time since 2007, while the latter cut its main rate one meeting ahead of expectations. The dollar has rallied against most currencies globally, despite the Fed indicating to markets that it sees three US rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, the Bank of England delivered a ‘dovish hold’, hinting that lower UK rates could be on the way in the not too distant future. But when could the MPC deliver its first interest rate cut?We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

The big talking point in the FX market in the past couple of weeks has been the sell-off in the US dollar, which has lost ground against almost every currency globally. FOMC chair Powell has hinted that a first US rate cut may be close, and markets are now eyeing the bank’s June meeting as the start date for easing. US macroeconomic data, meanwhile, has been rather mixed, with a weak nonfarm payrolls report offset by hotter-than-expected inflation data. The coming week looks set to be a highly eventful one, with several major central banks announcing their latest policy decisions. Could either the Federal Reserve or Bank of England hint at lower rates ahead? And will the Bank of Japan deliver its first rate hike since 2007? We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

In this week’s episode, our analysts discuss the latest business activity PMI numbers out of the G3 economies, which seem to be pointing to a convergence in economic performance between the US and its major peers. Matt, Enrique and Roman also give their thoughts on what to expect from next week’s European Central Bank meeting. While the economy in the common bloc has ground to a near standstill, communications from Governing Council members have been hawkish, and a change in rates in March seems highly unlikely.Lastly, we discuss our view on the Chilean peso - one of the worst performing currencies in the world so far in 2024. Has the sell-off in the peso gone too far? Or is there room for an additional depreciation in the currency?We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

The UK economy crashed into a technical recession in the second half of 2023, after Britain’s GDP contracted for the second straight quarter in Q4. While this was no big surprise to investors, the magnitude of the downturn was more severe than anticipated. But, what impact did the news have on the pound? And how could the UK’s disappointing growth performance influence Bank of England monetary policy?Elsewhere, Japan’s economy also fell into recession, adding further misery to the yen. The dollar, meanwhile, remains the best performing major currency in the world, as a hotter-than-expected US inflation report suggested that the Federal Reserve could wait until at least its June policy meeting before it begins lowering interest rates.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

In this week's episode, we delve into key economic data releases and major central bank meetings that lie ahead. Recently, the USD has demonstrated notable strength, rallying across all G10 currencies. The driving force behind this surge? Markets adjusting expectations as the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March dips below 50%, marking the first time since the December FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and robust US economic data, including encouraging December retail sales and a formidable fourth-quarter GDP report, play a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics. Surprisingly, despite hawkish communications from the Bank of Japan, the JPY lags behind, while the EUR and GBP manage to hold up relatively well, with the latter performing particularly well this year.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

In this week's episode, our analysts turn their attention to the year ahead, and give their thoughts on what to expect in the FX market in the coming twelve months. What will be the most important themes in markets this year, and how could central bank easing cycles and the US and UK elections impact currencies? We also give our thoughts on the global economy, and discuss the arguments in favour of both stronger and weaker growth in 2024. Our episode ends with our analysts providing their predictions for the currencies that they believe will both over- and underperform in 2024. Is the Japanese yen poised for a rebound, and which emerging market currencies could struggle this year? Listen to this week’s FX Talk episode to find out our thoughts!We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

In this episode, we delve into the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's unexpectedly dovish shift following its December policy meeting. FOMC Chair Powell said the ‘progress’ had been made on inflation, while noting that discussions were already being had on interest rate cuts. The ‘dot plot’ was also revised lower, suggesting a total of 75 basis points of cuts in 2024. Markets embraced the narrative of imminent and rapid rate reductions, triggering a sharp sell-off in the US dollar against most currencies. We also give our thoughts on the December policy announcements from both the Bank of England and European Central Bank, while each picking the currencies that have surprised us the most in 2023.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

We unpack the recent inflation developments, focusing on the disappointing October US and UK CPI reports. These both fell short of market expectations, leading to no shortage of volatility in markets. US headline inflation dropped sharply to 3.2%, while monthly inflation failed to rise for the first time since July 2022. This, coupled with a two-year low in the core measure, all but cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve is done with its hiking cycle. The result was a sharp sell-off in the dollar, which fell by more than 2% against its major peers. EUR/USD is trading at August highs above $1.09, while sterling has climbed back above the $1.25 level, despite last week’s drop in UK inflation.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

We have a special guest in this episode of FX Talk, Ebury's Head of Nordics, Carl Lindh, as we debate the outlook for the main currencies in Scandinavia. Before we get into that, we discuss the fallout from the latest major central bank meetings, and October’s underwhelming US nonfarm payrolls report.Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England held rates steady this month, while hinting that further rate hikes were probably unlikely. The FOMC struck an optimistic tone on US growth, although Powell expressed caution due to the increase in Treasury yields and a lag in policy transmission. Meanwhile, the Bank of England slashed its 2024 GDP forecast, warning that the UK economy was set to flatline next year.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine has taken centre stage, with a focus on the recent Hamas attacks and the Israeli military's retaliatory actions.Meanwhile, financial markets remain fixated on economic data and central bank decisions. Following our previous episode, most currencies rebounded against the dollar, thanks in part to a dovish tone from several Fed policymakers that tempered expectations of more US rate hikes.However, the dollar has shown broad strength in the past week, partly due to stronger US inflation figures. The euro is hovering just above 10-month lows, reflecting concerns about the state of the Eurozone economy. The British pound is also struggling, with a soft UK GDP report and vague comments from Bank of England members providing little clarity on UK interest rates.Among the G10 currencies, safe-havens like the US dollar and Swiss franc have been the best performers in the past week.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

September was a very busy month in the FX market, dominated by a host of major central bank meetings. Events kicked off with the ECB, which delivered a ‘dovish hike’, whereby it raised rates, but suggested that there was minimal appetite to hike again. Investors were taken aback by the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates steady, after the August UK inflation report missed expectations. On the flip side, the Federal Reserve adopted a hawkish stance, keeping rates unchanged, although indicating in its ‘dot plot’ that it foresees one final hike by year-end. These hawkish communications, and recent strong US data, have led to a sharp move higher in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield rising to a 16-year high around 4.8%.  This has triggered an aggressive rally in the US dollar against almost every other currency. The USD index has risen by more than 6.5% since mid-July to its highest level since November.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

In recent weeks, the USD has performed well largely due to safe-haven flows, which came about because of investors' concerns about economic slowdown in China. The slowdown is being evidenced by disappointing data like GDP,  PMI, retail sales, and industrial production, along with issues in the property sector. On the other hand, the US economy has shown great strength, with a healthy labour market and impressive growth indicators. In contrast, the Euro and Sterling have fallen from their highs against USD. Last week's business activity PMI data from the UK and EZ have been underwhelming and have fallen into contraction, indicating further economic difficulties.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

August is typically a quiet month in the financial markets as investors often take a break, seeking sunnier climates elsewhere. In consequence, volatility can be relatively low, and currency trades tend to be narrower due to the lack of substantial economic news or announcements. Predicting whether this pattern will follow suit this year is challenging without a definitive forecast. However, it's notable that there remains plenty for the markets to consider and for us to discuss.Over the past few weeks, headlines have been dominated by the meetings of the G4 central banks, namely the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England. As anticipated, the Federal Reserve raised rates by another 25 basis points at its July meeting. This comes after offering indications that it may cease raising rates, following evident signs of U.S. inflation easing. In the same vein, the European Central Bank adopted an unexpectedly dovish stance. Notably, Lagarde refrained from committing to any hikes, suggesting a potential pause from September onwards.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

The past fortnight has been eventful with high volatility observed in both Emerging Markets (EM) and major currencies. The significant development was a sharp decline in the US Dollar (USD). Indeed, the USD Index reported one of the largest weekly sell-offs since the Global Financial Crisis.Investors reacted to a less-than-expected set of US inflation figures. The headline inflation dropped to 3% in March 2021, while the core inflation decreased to below 5% in November 2021.The sell-off in the USD can be attributed to increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve might halt interest rate hikes by this summer. The expectation currently stands at a 25 basis point hike in July, with the date projected for 26/07. However, indications suggest this could be the last hike in the current cycle, with futures showing a 1-in-4 chance by November.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Recording during a relatively calm period in the foreign exchange market. Most major currencies are experiencing narrow ranges, partly due to the summer season and national holidays, including Independence Day on July 4th in the US. Typically, summers are quieter for currency markets, but they haven't been completely inactive recently. Central bank leaders have taken a generally hawkish stance, as seen at the meeting in Sintra, Portugal. Powell has reiterated the possibility of a couple more rate hikes in the US without any cuts in the near term. Lagarde has practically confirmed an ECB hike in July. In other news, the Australian dollar has rebounded despite the unexpected decision by the RBA to hold rates unchanged in their July meeting. Meanwhile, the yen has approached new lows despite speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in the FX market (more on that in a later episode). However, the primary focus of this week's episode will be on emerging markets.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

In this episode, we discuss the recent volatility in financial markets due to a number of major economic data releases and central bank announcements. The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish pause, hinting at the possibility of raising interest rates on two more occasions in 2023, while the European Central Bank raised rates yet again and indicated that another rate increase is on the way in July. Despite these hawkish stances, the dollar sold off across the board, leaving the hosts to consider why this underperformance occurred.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

In this exhilarating episode of FX Talk, our Market Analysts dive deep into the highly anticipated Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) meetings, set to take place on the 14th and 15th of June, respectively. Delve into the speculations surrounding the Fed's decision on interest rates and the impact of the latest Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on their considerations.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

We dive into the main reasons behind the recent strength of the US dollar in the global markets. The USD has been trading higher against most other G10 and emerging market currencies, except for a few exceptions such as Latin American ones. We explore what's been driving this rally, with a focus on market concerns surrounding the US debt ceiling and how they have contributed to the safe-haven flows into the greenback. We also discuss the ongoing negotiations in Washington around the debt ceiling and why they are so important for the markets. Additionally, we analyze the relative performance of the Eurozone and the UK economies and how it may impact the euro's performance against the pound.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Amidst important data releases, the US NFP beat expectations, but the US CPI reported a decline in inflationary pressures. G10 currencies have seen the USD as the worst-performing currency for the past two months (except for JPY), largely due to an increasingly confident market that the Fed is finished hiking rates after May meeting. In contrast, the ECB and BoE have more room to go. The ECB is still data-dependent, whereas the BoE voted to raise rates by 25bps at its May meeting. Despite this, the pound and euro have been the two best-performing currencies in the G10 so far in 2023.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps! 

Welcome to the latest episode of FX Talk, where we bring you all the latest news, headlines, and developments in the foreign exchange market. In this fortnightly dose, we cover the most important events that have occurred since our last episode. Despite a quieter period in the markets, banking uncertainty has been a key focus, which has now significantly abated. On the positive side, risk sentiment is high, with most currencies performing well against safe havens, and there has been a broad sell-off of the USD. We'll also discuss the signs of continued cooling in US inflation, which has contributed to the expectation that the Fed may soon end its hiking cycle. So, sit back, relax, and let's dive into the latest news in the FX market.We’d like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk  Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!