Fault Lines

Episode 540: The Holiday Special - Unwrapping 2025Today, Jessica, Jamil, Morgan, Lester, Les, Lipsey, Matthew, and Marc take stock of a consequential year in U.S. national security. From President Trump’s push to brand himself as a “peace president”—highlighted by multiple diplomatic agreements and the Gaza peace plan—to moments of hard power, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, 2025 defied easy labels. The team reflects on undercovered but significant developments as well: the dismantling of the U.S. foreign assistance architecture, growing concern over advanced technology transfers to China, sweeping changes to the federal workforce through DOGE, and a renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere, particularly Venezuela and Haiti.Looking ahead to 2026, what will ultimately shape U.S. national security: the trajectory of Ukraine, a recalibration of China policy, or the domestic pressures of a midterm election year? Are tariffs becoming a permanent tool of U.S. leverage or a temporary negotiating tactic? And as the administration continues to reshape how American power is exercised, which lessons from 2025 will matter most?@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@WashingtonFlack@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 539: Live from RNDF: Ambassador YuiAs part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jess and Jamil sit down with Ambassador Yui, Taiwan’s Representative to the United States. With more than 35 years of diplomatic experience—including senior leadership roles in Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and postings across Europe, Latin America, and the U.S.—Ambassador Yui offers a uniquely informed view of the shifting security landscape in the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan’s evolving role within it.How does Taiwan assess the current deterrence environment amid intensifying PLA activity and hybrid pressure from Beijing? Where are the biggest opportunities, and remaining obstacles, in United States–Taiwan defense, economic, and technological partnership? And as Taiwan advances major modernization efforts, from asymmetric defense to cyber resilience and semiconductor security, what should Washington understand about the capabilities, priorities, and challenges shaping Taiwan’s strategic future?@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jess and Jamil sit down with Washington Harbour Partners Founder and Chief Investment Officer Mina Faltas - with a surprise appearance from NSI Advisory Board Member and Silverado Policy Accelerator co-founder Dmitri Alperovitch. Together, they explore how private capital, technological innovation, and strategic competition are reshaping the future of American and allied deterrence. How are investors evaluating risk in an era defined by U.S.–China rivalry, hybrid conflict, and accelerating breakthroughs in technology? What role should private capital play in national security, and where is the market still mispricing geopolitical and regulatory risk? And as cyber and space become more central to modern conflict, how can the U.S. and its allies strengthen resilience and build the next generation of deterrence?@NotTVJessJones@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/pPe4xGxqF2w Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jamil and Jess sit down with Congressman Don Bacon, retired Air Force Brigadier General and chair of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation. How should Congress prioritize modernization as China, Russia, and other adversaries accelerate their investment in emerging technologies? What lessons from Ukraine should shape U.S. doctrine, acquisitions, and alliance cooperation? And how should the U.S. think about offensive cyber, AI-enabled capabilities, and the future of deterrence in a rapidly evolving threat landscape?@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/eU3qAdj1P6M  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jess and Morgan sit down with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, former U.S. National Security Advisor. Drawing on insights from his decades of service and his work shaping the U.S. military’s future force, McMaster helps us understand what’s truly new in today’s era of great-power competition and rapid technological change - and why this moment might be when Russia is at its weakest.  (If I am remembering correctly talked a lot about Russia)How should policymakers think about deterrence in a world where battlefields stretch from Europe to the Indo-Pacific to cyberspace? What historical “rhymes” matter most right now? What gives McMaster confidence in America’s ability to compete and what keeps him up at night?@nottvjessjones@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/UPUQgEVSV08  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Morgan and Jess speak with Dan Jablonsky, CEO of Ursa Major. They discuss how startups and nontraditionals are reshaping the defense technology landscape, the strategic importance of next-generation rocket propulsion, and the role of manufacturing innovation in strengthening U.S. and allied capabilities. What role should industry play in modern deterrence? How can the United States accelerate adoption of cutting-edge systems while building trust between government and industry? And as emerging threats—from hypersonics to hybrid conflict—challenge traditional military advantage, how can U.S. innovators help maintain the technological edge that underpins American and allied security?@morganlroach@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/9__6jFUFYoY Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess discuss the Trump Administration’s newly released National Security Strategy. They break down the major pillars of the strategy, from the administration’s call for “peace through strength” and its renewed emphasis on economic security, reindustrialization, and energy dominance, to its focus on burden-shifting with allies, deterring adversaries, and reasserting U.S. primacy in key regions, including the Western Hemisphere, the Indo-Pacific, and Europe.What does this strategy signal about the Trump Administration’s priorities heading into 2026? How does it reshape America’s approach to allies, competitors, and emerging technologies? And what does it reveal, explicitly and implicitly, about the administration’s theory of deterrence in an age defined by simultaneous regional crises and great-power rivalry?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows’ discussions: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf@morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/xxSDkMBoVl8  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Jamil, Les, and Amy dig into the latest round of U.S.-Russia peace talks after Vladimir Putin spent nearly five hours behind closed doors with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. No breakthrough occurred, but the stakes keep rising: Putin says Russia is “ready” for a conflict with Europe, Ukraine is grappling with corruption scandals and the resignation of Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Sudan is offering Moscow a Red Sea naval base, and the Senate’s sanctions bill is still stalled.Did anything new actually from the talks? What should we make of the economic incentives reportedly being floated in some of these negotiations? What would it take for the U.S. to move this conflict toward an endgame?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows’ discussions: @nottvjessjones@lestermunson@amykmitchell@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/r3iwMur3tQ0  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess discuss rising tensions around Venezuela, where the U.S. has surged military assets into the region after months of striking drug-running vessels, and President Trump is set to meet with his cabinet tonight to decide next steps. Reports suggest an ultimatum may have been delivered to Nicolás Maduro over the weekend. One early U.S. strike is now under bipartisan scrutiny after allegations that American forces fired on survivors—prompting both Armed Services Committees to open investigations into the legality and authorities behind current operations.What are the administration’s strategic aims, and is the U.S. prepared for the consequences of the largest Western military buildup in the Caribbean since 1994? How will Congress’ stepped-up oversight shape the administration’s options? And with a streamlined NSC structure and an administration leaning into ambiguity, does this campaign reflect a coherent strategy—or a high-risk pressure play designed to keep allies and adversaries off balance?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows’ discussions: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article313261442.html https://stories.theconversation.com/tracking-the-us-military-in-the-caribbean/ @lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroach@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/-CiYGzP1RnU Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess unpack new revelations about the 28-point Ukraine peace proposal. Over the weekend several senators went to the press and announced that Secretary of State Rubio had told them the plan was drafted originally by Russians. The White House attempted to walk that back, saying it was a U.S. plan that incorporated Russian ideas, but the concessions it outlines for Ukraine have reinforced suspicions about its true authorship. Has the plan moved talks forward, or revealed how week Washington’s leverage really is? Can Zelensky navigate between maintaining U.S. support and avoiding a deal that rewards Russian aggression? And with President Trump pushing for progress, are we on the path toward a ceasefire–or simply watching the opening moves of a long and messy negotiation?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows’ discussions: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-peace-plan-europe-witkoff-33545b140c5bfbbc5e9061a739802e54 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly1ypqlle0o @lestermunson@nottvjessjones@morganlroach@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here:  https://youtu.be/KRM8oQysfvg  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Jamil, Les, and Morgan break down the Trump Administration’s new  28-point peace plan for Ukraine — a proposal that would cap Ukraine’s military size, cede territory to Russia, redirect frozen Russian assets toward reconstruction, and ban future NATO membership. Moscow’s envoy praised the plan, Kyiv says it plans on discussing it with the White House, and European allies and some Congressional members express alarm over the  terms.Is this the beginning of the end of the war, or a diplomatic dead end? What does the proposal signal about the White House’s larger Ukraine-Russia strategy? Does this proposal reward Russian aggression and risk legitimizing invasion as a negotiating tool?Check out these sources that helped shape our fellows’ discussions: https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-peace-plan-europe-witkoff-33545b140c5bfbbc5e9061a739802e54 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly1ypqlle0o @nottvjessjones@morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@lestermunsonLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/HDEgKTQjdGI  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Jamil, Matt, and Jess unpack Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s high-profile visit to Washington, his first since the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, and a landmark $1 trillion investment announcement alongside a U.S. agreement to sell the Kingdom F-35 fighter jets. The visit, including a business summit at the Kennedy Center, underscores Saudi Arabia’s growing economic and strategic importance to the United States.As President Trump deepens ties with Riyadh and pushes for Saudi normalization with Israel through the Abraham Accords, is this a pragmatic step toward regional stability — or a transactional bet with long-term risks? Can trade and tech cooperation truly build a new Middle Eastern “NATO,” or is Washington gambling on partnerships that could prove fragile?@morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjones@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/ez6-oyaTOds  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess break from the usual policy deep-dives for a special episode: a review of A House of Dynamite, the new 90-minute Netflix thriller that imagines a nuclear missile headed straight for the United States. The film unfolds through three overlapping vantage points—a Navy captain running the White House Situation Room, a deputy national security advisor suddenly thrust into a life-or-death decision cycle, and a Secretary of Defense guiding a president portrayed by Idris Elba. With standout performances from Jared Harris, Rebecca Ferguson, and newcomer Gabriel Basso, the movie blends high-stakes crisis response with surprisingly grounded depictions of how the U.S. government might react in the unthinkable scenario of an inbound nuclear strike.How realistic is Hollywood’s take on nuclear command and control? Which perspective offers the most credible view of how the system actually works? And what does the film get right—or wrong—about the speed, uncertainty, and pressure of decision-making when minutes determine national survival?@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjones@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/a_NHqB2PIv8 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Matt, and Algene discuss Iraq’s parliamentary elections, where Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s coalition claimed victory, though history suggests the post-election power struggles are just beginning. With half of Iraq’s population under 25, voter turnout strong, and political violence relatively low, this election could mark a step forward for Iraqi democracy.What do the results mean for U.S. strategy in the region as Washington prepares to reduce its troop presence by 2026? Can Iraq resist deepening Iranian influence at a time when Syria’s landscape is shifting? And as the U.S. pushes to expand the Abraham Accords and secure energy stability, will Baghdad emerge as a partner for regional progress — or a pressure point for America’s Middle East policy?Check out this source that helped shape our fellows’ discussion: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iraqs-prime-minister-iran-backed-militias-set-for-difficult-negotiations-after-election-4668abb8?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfwA1yCAZTvMYMMp3i22_AkbCNDrQA-Ipis82JTDlJhiWMQ7gXCr_20BU6k91s%3D&gaa_ts=6916447b&gaa_sig=A231zbhaHMgoOWVXiVlE9kmZm1YmZvrIr9lVtai7yGoudpX6Xg-xoN3621z8UoZoEU1mt7i5d4OsmTh2rcb7JA%3D%3D4dd7f26b8e98 @nottvjessjones@lestermunson@AlgeneSajery@WMattHaydenLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/94KRBnShAKY  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Jamil, Les, and Jess discuss the Trump administration’s deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the Caribbean as part of its intensified campaign against Latin American drug cartels. The move dramatically expands U.S. presence in the U.S. Southern Command’s area of operations—with destroyers, F-35 fighters, and Reaper drones joining the effort—and has drawn a fierce response from Venezuela’s Maduro regime, which launched its own military exercises in protest.What’s Washington’s real objective here, countering narcotics networks or signaling to Caracas? And if most fentanyl traffics through land routes via Mexico, not by sea, is this deployment really about fighting the drug trade, or about projecting power closer to Venezuela’s shores? As regional partners like Colombia and the UK distance themselves from the mission, is this bold strategy a show of deterrence—or a costly display of overkill?Check out this source that helped shape our fellows’ discussion: @morganlroach@lestermunson@nottvjessjones@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/pdQoeYya9hs Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, and Jess discuss the Trump administration’s successful effort to delay a major vote at the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the UN body that oversees global shipping regulations. The proposal would have taxed vessels based on carbon emissions, with revenues funneled to the UN. The U.S. opposed the measure, warning it would raise shipping fuel costs and threaten to worsen inflation at home. After intense U.S. lobbying—described by some as bullying—the IMO voted to postpone the plan.Was this coercion or simply hardball diplomacy? Should the UN, through the IMO, have the authority to levy global taxes in the first place? And as the administration frames its push as economic self-defense, does this signal a broader rejection of multilateral climate measures that Washington sees as bad for business?Check out this souce that helped shape our fellows’ discussion: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/06/climate/trump-climate-international-bullying.html @lestermunson@nottvjessjones@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/E-gic_8yWKo  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Morgan, and Andy unpack a potentially dramatic diplomatic turn in Syria-US relations. The United Nations has lifted sanctions on President Ahmed al-Sharaa—reportedly at Washington’s urging—clearing the way for his historic visit to the White House next week. Once a commander in the al-Nusra Front, al-Sharaa now leads a Syrian government pivoting from isolation to engagement, as the Trump Administration considers establishing a U.S. military presence at an airbase in Damascus.What does this mean for Trump’s broader Middle East vision of normalization with Israel? Can Syria’s fragile new government withstand domestic backlash as it moves closer to Washington? Is this a genuine pivot away from Iran and Russia, or just another chapter in Syria’s long game of survival?@nottvjessjones@morganlroach@andykeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/ImZo1I2hd7U  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, Amy, and Andy discuss the recent political violence in Tanzania, where President Samia Suluhu Hassan claimed victory with 98% of the vote in an election widely condemned as neither free nor fair. Opposition candidates were arrested, protests have been violently suppressed, and Tundu Lissu, leader of the banned Chadema party, faces treason charges for calling for election reform. Once seen as one of East Africa’s more stable democracies, this marks a sharp and troubling turn for Tanzania.What does this mean for democratic backsliding across Africa—and beyond? Could instability in Tanzania open new opportunities for China and Russia to expand their influence in the region? And as the United States continues to pull back from Africa, can Washington afford to keep treating the continent as an afterthought while authoritarian powers move in?@morganlroach@lestermunson@amykmitchell@andykeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/V7rxk5Ujndw  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Andrew discuss President Trump’s latest statement that U.S. troops may be sent to Nigeria to confront what he described as terrorists targeting Christians. The post sparked immediate controversy, with some analysts noting the Administration may be conflating two distinct conflicts: sectarian violence between Fulani herders and Christian farmers, and the extremist insurgencies of Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa. President Tinubu has said he would welcome U.S. security assistance, but the situation on the ground—and Washington’s strategy—remain deeply unclear.Is the Trump administration misdiagnosing Nigeria’s complex conflict? What would an American military intervention look like, especially after the U.S. was expelled from Niger and pulled back counterterrorism operations across the Sahel? And with terrorist groups resurging in West Africa and Russia’s Africa Corps expanding its footprint, can the U.S. afford to stay disengaged or is it about to overcorrect?@lestermunson@morganlroach@jamil_n_jaffer@andrewboreneLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/NTXlBlBCFac  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Martha, Morgan, and Jess discuss the alarming developments in Mali, where an Al Qaeda affiliate may soon control the country outright. With the U.S. ordering Americans to evacuate and fuel imports blockaded across the country, the situation in Bamako is rapidly deteriorating. Could this be the moment Al Qaeda transitions from insurgency to governance — collecting taxes, enforcing rule, and projecting power beyond the Sahel?If an Al Qaeda-linked regime does consolidate control, what would that mean for U.S. policy, recognition, confrontation, or containment? How might this reshape counterterrorism strategy in Africa, especially as Russia and China expand their influence in the region? And with extremist groups rising across the Sahel and no confirmed Assistant Secretary for African Affairs, can Washington afford to stay on the sidelines?@lestermunson@morganlroach@marthamillerdc@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/biwoX319D1c  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.